The Least-Deserving All-Star Game Starting Pitchers by Paul Swydan July 16, 2013 Much of the time, the pitcher who starts the All-Star Game is very deserving, and is very obvious. It may not be the most-deserving pitcher mind you, but the selection is generally someone good enough that the selection is not worth arguing. This year is such a year: Both Max Scherzer and Matt Harvey rank second in their respective league in WAR, and are close enough to the front runners (Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright) as to make the differences negligible. But that hasn’t always been the case. Let’s take a trip down memory lane and look at some of the starting pitchers who weren’t quite as deserving. Using our first half splits, which we have all the way back to 1974, we can see that — including this season — 54 of the 80 pitchers who started the All-Star Game ranked in the top five of their respective league in pitcher WAR. There were some who were not as deserving, though, at least according to how they ranked against their peers: Lg Year Starter 1st Half WAR Lg Rnk #1 WAR Manager AL 2007 D. Haren 3.0 6 Josh Beckett 3.4 J. Leyland NL 2012 M. Cain 2.4 7 Zack Greinke 3.5 T. LaRussa AL 2004 M. Mulder 2.9 7 Curt Schilling 4.7 J. Torre AL 1994 J. Key 2.9 7 Roger Clemens 4.2 C. Gaston NL 1986 D. Gooden 2.3 7 Mike Scott 4.6 W. Herzog AL 1978 J. Palmer 2.6 7 Ron Guidry 4.5 B. Martin AL 1975 V. Blue 2.7 7 Steve Busby 4.1 A. Dark NL 1975 J. Reuss 2.7 7 Tom Seaver 4.6 W. Alston NL 1985 L. Hoyt 2.4 8 Dwight Gooden 4.6 D. Williams NL 2008 B. Sheets 2.5 9 Dan Haren 3.6 C. Hurdle NL 1995 H. Nomo 2.1 9 Greg Maddux 4.0 F. Alou NL 1993 T. Mulholland 2.8 10 Greg Maddux 3.8 B. Cox NL 2006 B. Penny 2.4 11 Brandon Webb 4.1 P. Garner AL 1991 J. Morris 2.2 11 Roger Clemens 5.2 T. LaRussa AL 1976 M. Fidrych 2.0 11 Bert Blyleven 3.6 D. Johnson AL 1989 D. Stewart 2.2 13 Mark Gubicza 5.0 T. LaRussa AL 1985 J. Morris 2.4 13 Bert Blyleven 4.2 S. Anderson AL 1981 J. Morris 1.3 14 Len Barker 3.0 J. Frey AL 2010 D. Price 2.0 17 Francisco Liriano 4.0 J. Girardi NL 1977 D. Sutton 1.8 19 Steve Rogers 4.4 S. Anderson AL 1998 D. Wells 1.8 23 Bartolo Colon 3.5 M. Hargrove AL 1977 J. Palmer 1.8 25 Dennis Leonard 4.5 B. Martin AL 2006 K. Rogers 1.4 40 Jeremy Bonderman 4.2 O. Guillen AL 1980 S. Stone 1.1 47 Jon Matlack 3.2 E. Weaver NL 1984 C. Lea 0.8 49 Dwight Gooden 4.1 P. Owens AL 1990 B. Welch 0.6 66 Roger Clemens 4.1 T. LaRussa A few things jump out right away: — The manager who most frequently picked someone who wasn’t a top-five pitcher, in terms of WAR, was Tony La Russa. I’ll allow a few seconds for you to register your shock. Twice, he chose one of his own pitchers (in another, less egregious example, he also picked Chris Carpenter over Pedro Martinez. In 1990, he made the single most egregious choice, when he picked Bob Welch over Roger Clemens. Welch would go on to win the American League Cy Young Award that season, on the strength of his otherworldly, but hollow, 27-6 record. Welch starting the Midsummer Classic no doubt helped strengthen the myth of his greatness. — Speaking of the myth of greatness, we see that sabermetric whipping boy Jack Morris pops up three times here as undeserving. Morris started the game three times, and on each occasion he was no better than the 11th-best pitcher in the AL. It wasn’t always a case of Morris even having better superficial stats either. In 1981, he was 9-3 with a 2.56 ERA. Ken Forsch was also 9-3, but he had a better WAR and also a better ERA, at 2.27. Len Barker, who led the AL in WAR in that first half, had a 2.08 ERA. In 1985, Morris was 10-6 with a 3.04 ERA. That hardly compared to some of his competitors who bettered him in WAR, such as Bret Saberhagen (10-4, 2.78), Ron Guidry (12-3, 2.58) and Dave Stieb (9-5, 1.87). The situation was similar in 1991 — Clemens was 11-5 with a 2.22 ERA, while Morris was 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA. In 1981 and 1091, the Tigers were barely above .500 at the break. Bottom line: Dudes just liked Jack Morris, statistics be damned. — Clemens was frequently bypassed. He entered the break leading the AL in WAR in seven different seasons, though he only started the game in one of those seven years. He started on two other occasions, and ironically,he ranked fifth in those two years. Of course, there’s another way to look at this: Just because a pitcher wasn’t in his top five in his respective league’s WAR doesn’t mean he wasn’t a good selection. For instance, Dan Haren ranked sixth in the AL in WAR in 2007, but he was still a mere .4 WAR behind Josh Beckett. But what about the bigger WAR gaps between the starter and the WAR league-leader? Lg Year Starter 1st Half WAR Lg Rnk #1 WAR Diff Manager AL 1990 B. Welch 0.6 66 Roger Clemens 4.1 3.5 T. LaRussa AL 1988 F. Viola 3.6 2 Roger Clemens 6.9 3.3 T. Kelly NL 1984 C. Lea 0.8 49 Dwight Gooden 4.1 3.3 P. Owens AL 1991 J. Morris 2.2 11 Roger Clemens 5.2 3.0 T. LaRussa AL 2006 K. Rogers 1.4 40 Jeremy Bonderman 4.2 2.8 O. Guillen AL 1989 D. Stewart 2.2 13 Mark Gubicza 5 2.8 T. LaRussa AL 1977 J. Palmer 1.8 25 Dennis Leonard 4.5 2.7 B. Martin NL 1977 D. Sutton 1.8 19 Steve Rogers 4.4 2.6 S. Anderson NL 1986 D. Gooden 2.3 7 Mike Scott 4.6 2.3 W. Herzog AL 2001 R. Clemens 3.2 5 Pedro Martinez 5.4 2.2 J. Torre NL 1985 L. Hoyt 2.4 8 Dwight Gooden 4.6 2.2 D. Williams AL 1980 S. Stone 1.1 47 Jon Matlack 3.2 2.1 E. Weaver NL 1999 C. Schilling 3.4 3 Randy Johnson 5.4 2.0 B. Bochy AL 2010 D. Price 2.0 17 Francisco Liriano 4 2.0 J. Girardi NL 1995 H. Nomo 2.1 9 Greg Maddux 4 1.9 F. Alou AL 1978 J. Palmer 2.6 7 Ron Guidry 4.5 1.9 B. Martin NL 1975 J. Reuss 2.7 7 Tom Seaver 4.6 1.9 W. Alston AL 2004 M. Mulder 2.9 7 Curt Schilling 4.7 1.8 J. Torre AL 1985 J. Morris 2.4 13 Bert Blyleven 4.2 1.8 S. Anderson NL 1982 S. Rogers 3.1 5 Steve Carlton 4.9 1.8 T. Lasorda NL 2004 R. Clemens 2.7 5 Randy Johnson 4.4 1.7 J. McKeon AL 1998 D. Wells 1.8 23 Bartolo Colon 3.5 1.7 M. Hargrove AL 1981 J. Morris 1.3 14 Len Barker 3 1.7 J. Frey AL 2009 R. Halladay 3.9 3 Zack Greinke 5.6 1.7 J. Maddon NL 2006 B. Penny 2.4 11 Brandon Webb 4.1 1.7 P. Garner AL 1976 M. Fidrych 2 11 Bert Blyleven 3.6 1.6 D. Johnson These were the biggest gaps. Twenty of the 80 were the actual league leaders in WAR. Of the remaining 60, 27 were within 1 WAR, and 34 were within 1.5 WAR. The other 26 you see above. — Again, a stark picture is painted of La Russa’s failings. He committed three of the five most egregious offenses. — We also see Clemens as the spurned ace who deserved to start. The three biggest gaps were between Clemens and another player. This was actually not all that uncommon. With a few different pitchers, the pattern seemed to be they would get their All-Star Game start, and then be passed over in subsequent years. Whether it was they didn’t want the honor, were injured or were simply bypassed to give someone new a turn, this phenomenon wasn’t isolated to Clemens. Steve Carlton started in 1979, and watched four others start ahead of him, even though he led the NL in WAR heading into the break. Greg Maddux led the NL in WAR at the break from 1992 to 1997, but he only started the 1994 and 1997 games. He got another start in 1998, though he was just shy of first that season. Pedro Martinez started in 1999, when he led the league in WAR with an otherworldly 7.3. He then led his respective league in first-half WAR in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2005 — but he didn’t start any of those contests. Clemens got the nod in 1986 when he led the AL, but despite leading the league again in 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992 and 1994, he didn’t get any of those starts. In fact, in ’94 he wasn’t even named to the All-Star team. Looking closely at both lists, we see most of the same names populate them. No matter which way you choose to look at it, several of these starters were simply unworthy. Those who end up on both lists are: Lg Year A.L. Starter NL 2006 B. Penny AL 1990 B. Welch NL 1984 C. Lea NL 1986 D. Gooden AL 2010 D. Price AL 1989 D. Stewart NL 1977 D. Sutton AL 1998 D. Wells NL 1995 H. Nomo AL 1991 J. Morris AL 1985 J. Morris AL 1981 J. Morris AL 1978 J. Palmer AL 1977 J. Palmer NL 1975 J. Reuss AL 2006 K. Rogers NL 1985 L. Hoyt AL 1976 M. Fidrych AL 2004 M. Mulder AL 1980 S. Stone AL 1975 V. Blue Eighteen pitchers are listed 21 times, with Morris being king of the undeserving and Welch being the most egregious error in terms of both rank and difference. What’s interesting is just how many stellar pitchers are on this list. Guys like David Price, Dwight Gooden, Jim Palmer and Don Sutton stick out, in particular. When choosing a pitcher to start the game, there are often extenuating circumstances beyond who is the most deserving. The Sunday rule gives an out to many pitchers, including Wainwright this season. And, of course, evaluating by WAR isn’t the only way to decide the best pitcher was in the first half. There are plenty of other metrics from which to choose. But no matter what metric is chosen beyond simple wins and losses, there’s simply no way Welch or Kenny Rogers ends up as a deserving candidate to start an All-Star Game. Starting an All-Star Game is an honor, and no doubt Scherzer and Harvey are excellent choices. In fact, the choices have been better in recent years: Counting 2013, eight of the last 10 starters were ranked in their respective league’s top five, and four of them ranked No. 1 . Hopefully things stay this way, because in the past they certainly weren’t, and the people who suffer the most are those in the game itself. The All-Star Game may be meaningless in terms of who wins the Fall Classic, but in October, the eyes of the nation are spread out among football, basketball, hockey and baseball. The Midsummer Classic is the time when baseball has the stage to itself, and it must continue to put its best foot forward in the hopes of growing the game among casual fans. Finally, because I love you, here’s the whole stats dump. Year AL Starter 1st Half WAR Lg Rnk #1 WAR Diff AL Manager 2013 M. Scherzer 4.0 2 Felix Hernandez 4.2 0.2 J. Leyland 2012 J. Verlander 3.9 1 R. Washington 2011 J. Weaver 4.9 1 R. Washington 2010 D. Price 2.0 17 Francisco Liriano 4 2.0 J. Girardi 2009 R. Halladay 3.9 3 Zack Greinke 5.6 1.7 J. Maddon 2008 C. Lee 4.6 1 T. Francona 2007 D. Haren 3 6 Josh Beckett 3.4 0.4 J. Leyland 2006 K. Rogers 1.4 40 Jeremy Bonderman 4.2 2.8 O. Guillen 2005 M. Buehrle 4.2 1 T. Francona 2004 M. Mulder 2.9 7 Curt Schilling 4.7 1.8 J. Torre 2003 E. Loaiza 3.8 3 Pedro Martinez 4.1 0.3 M. Scioscia 2002 D. Lowe 3.3 3 Pedro Martinez 4.3 1.0 J. Torre 2001 R. Clemens 3.2 5 Pedro Martinez 5.4 2.2 J. Torre 2000 D. Wells 4.3 2 Pedro Martinez 4.4 0.1 J. Torre 1999 P. Martinez 7.3 1 J. Torre 1998 D. Wells 1.8 23 Bartolo Colon 3.5 1.7 M. Hargrove 1997 R. Johnson 3.8 2 Roger Clemens 5.1 1.3 J. Torre 1996 C. Nagy 2.7 4 Kevin Appier 3.3 0.6 M. Hargrove 1995 R. Johnson 4.7 1 B. Showalter 1994 J. Key 2.9 7 Roger Clemens 4.2 1.3 C. Gaston 1993 M. Langston 3.7 2 Kevin Appier 3.7 0.0 C. Gaston 1992 K. Brown 4.2 3 Roger Clemens 5 0.8 T. Kelly 1991 J. Morris 2.2 11 Roger Clemens 5.2 3.0 T. LaRussa 1990 B. Welch 0.6 66 Roger Clemens 4.1 3.5 T. LaRussa 1989 D. Stewart 2.2 13 Mark Gubicza 5 2.8 T. LaRussa 1988 F. Viola 3.6 2 Roger Clemens 6.9 3.3 T. Kelly 1987 B. Saberhagen 4 1 J. McNamara 1986 R. Clemens 4.2 1 D. Howser 1985 J. Morris 2.4 13 Bert Blyleven 4.2 1.8 S. Anderson 1984 D. Stieb 3 2 Phil Niekro 3.6 0.6 J. Altobelli 1983 D. Stieb 3.1 5 La Marr Hoyt 3.6 0.5 H. Kuenn 1982 D. Eckersley 2.9 3 Len Barker 3.5 0.6 B. Martin 1981 J. Morris 1.3 14 Len Barker 3 1.7 J. Frey 1980 S. Stone 1.1 47 Jon Matlack 3.2 2.1 E. Weaver 1979 N. Ryan 4.6 1 B. Lemon 1978 J. Palmer 2.6 7 Ron Guidry 4.5 1.9 B. Martin 1977 J. Palmer 1.8 25 Dennis Leonard 4.5 2.7 B. Martin 1976 M. Fidrych 2 11 Bert Blyleven 3.6 1.6 D. Johnson 1975 V. Blue 2.7 7 Steve Busby 4.1 1.4 A. Dark 1974 G. Perry 5.1 1 D. Williams Other assorted thoughts: — If you asked me to pick one manager who correctly named his league’s respective WAR leader in both of his stints as manager, I definitely would choose Ron Washington. Neither guy was from his team. Impressive. — Pedro in 1999. That’s an MVP-caliber season in half a season, and in one of the highest offense seasons of all-time. Just don’t tell George King or LeVelle Neal III. — Jeremy Bonderman’s fall from grace was fast and furious. Year NL Starter 1st Half WAR Lg Rnk #1 WAR Diff NL Manager 2013 M. Harvey 4.2 2 Adam Wainwright 4.5 0.3 B. Bochy 2012 M. Cain 2.4 7 Zack Greinke 3.5 1.1 T. LaRussa 2011 R. Halladay 4.9 1 B. Bochy 2010 U. Jimenez 3.7 3 Josh Johnson 4.4 0.7 C. Manuel 2009 T. Lincecum 4.8 1 C. Manuel 2008 B. Sheets 2.5 9 Dan Haren 3.6 1.1 C. Hurdle 2007 J. Peavy 3.7 1 T. LaRussa 2006 B. Penny 2.4 11 Brandon Webb 4.1 1.7 P. Garner 2005 C. Carpenter 3.5 4 Pedro Martinez 4.4 0.9 T. LaRussa 2004 R. Clemens 2.7 5 Randy Johnson 4.4 1.7 J. McKeon 2003 J. Schmidt 4 2 Mark Prior 4 0.0 D. Baker 2002 C. Schilling 5.4 1 B. Brenly 2001 R. Johnson 4.9 1 B. Valentine 2000 R. Johnson 5.9 1 B. Cox 1999 C. Schilling 3.4 3 Randy Johnson 5.4 2.0 B. Bochy 1998 G. Maddux 5.1 2 Curt Schilling 5.3 0.2 J. Leyland 1997 G. Maddux 4.5 1 B. Cox 1996 J. Smoltz 4.3 2 Greg Maddux 5.1 0.8 B. Cox 1995 H. Nomo 2.1 9 Greg Maddux 4 1.9 F. Alou 1994 G. Maddux 5.2 1 J. Fregosi 1993 T. Mulholland 2.8 10 Greg Maddux 3.8 1.0 B. Cox 1992 T. Glavine 3.3 2 Greg Maddux 4.1 0.8 B. Cox 1991 T. Glavine 3.8 1 L. Piniella 1990 J. Armstrong 2.9 3 Frank Viola 3.4 0.5 R. Craig 1989 R. Reuschel 2.3 5 John Smoltz 2.8 0.5 T. Lasorda 1988 D. Gooden 3.1 1 W. Herzog 1987 M. Scott 3.6 2 Orel Hershiser 4.1 0.5 D. Johnson 1986 D. Gooden 2.3 7 Mike Scott 4.6 2.3 W. Herzog 1985 L. Hoyt 2.4 8 Dwight Gooden 4.6 2.2 D. Williams 1984 C. Lea 0.8 49 Dwight Gooden 4.1 3.3 P. Owens 1983 M. Soto 2.9 3 Steve Carlton 4.2 1.3 W. Herzog 1982 S. Rogers 3.1 5 Steve Carlton 4.9 1.8 T. Lasorda 1981 F. Valenzuela 2.8 2 Steve Carlton 3 0.2 D. Green 1980 J. Richard 3.5 2 Steve Carlton 4.7 1.2 C. Tanner 1979 S. Carlton 2.8 4 J.R. Richard 3.6 0.8 T. Lasorda 1978 V. Blue 3.4 2 Phil Niekro 4.3 0.9 T. Lasorda 1977 D. Sutton 1.8 19 Steve Rogers 4.4 2.6 S. Anderson 1976 R. Jones 2.7 4 Tom Seaver 3.7 1.0 S. Anderson 1975 J. Reuss 2.7 7 Tom Seaver 4.6 1.9 W. Alston 1974 A. Messersmith 3.7 3 Jon Matlack 4.1 0.4 Y. Berra Other assorted thoughts: — Harvey’s season is actually 10th best among National League All-Star Game starters. Not too shabby. Maybe next year people will know what he looks like. — Only Stieb started back-to-back games in this period for the American League; in the NL, there have been three repeat starters: Glavine, Johnson and Maddux.