The Marlins’ Outfield Looks Stronger Than Expected

We are only a few weeks away from the midpoint of the season, and so far, there have been a fair share of surprises across multiple divisions. One of those comes from the NL East. No, it’s not the Braves, who sit atop the division with the second-best winning percentage in the National League; that was expected. The surprise is the Marlins, who are second in the division with a 37–31 record, 3.5 games ahead of the Phillies and 5.5 games ahead of the Mets. These are not insurmountable gaps, but it’s still impressive given what the projections were for Miami in particular.

With the ninth-worst run differential in the game, it’s not clear if the Marlins will sustain this winning pace. But they have gotten some legitimate performances from hitters that they simply have not had in previous seasons. Luis Arraez hasn’t stopped hitting since he got to Miami, and Jorge Soler is amidst yet another bounce back and clubbing homers all over the park. As a team desperate for offense, it’s been great to have those two hitting so well — and luckily, they aren’t the only two hitting. Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez have been key to the Marlins’ success as well.

Both De La Cruz and Sánchez came to the team from fantastic player development organizations in Houston and Tampa Bay, respectively. De La Cruz is in his age-26 season, and Sánchez is in his age-25 season. Both are still under 1,000 career plate appearances and have been rather slow burns developmentally after struggling at different stages in their respective careers. And both have always shown interesting skills that suggested there was still some developmental meat left on the bone, as Eric Longenhagen would say. The flashes of success between 2021 and ’22 were interesting, but now each of them are legit contributors who have cemented their positions in the middle of Miami’s lineup and long-term plans.

De La Cruz’s performance this season has not been a complete surprise; he was a popular breakout pick across the baseball world. In his first two big league seasons, he had only been average at worst, with a wRC+ of 114 in 2021 and 104 last season. Despite the downtick in performance, the underlying metrics showed tangible improvements that might have played out in his favor over a larger sample size. Below is table of De La Cruz’s various batted ball and performance data from 2021 through this season:

After his first season, there was a clear jump in the quality of his batted ball profile across the board, and that played out in a big increase in xwOBA and xwOBACON. He started hitting the ball harder with more consistency and maintaining a level of launch angle tightness — sd(LA) — that was comparable to some of the best hitters in the league. Anytime a player runs a .458 xwOBACON, they have my attention. Hitting the ball consistently hard is a great sign, and if it’s paired with great movement quality, then there is reason to believe it would hold up in a full season.

This year, however, De La Cruz’s Barrel% has seen a notable decline, which has resulted in a slight ISO drop of .179 to .162. He is consistent in both the exit velocity and launch angle departments; it just doesn’t always play out with plus power like it can for other hitters. But that doesn’t mean he has had a steep fall, because as you can see, he is still performing above average.

One reason I’m confident that De La Cruz will continue this performance is due to great movement quality. Here are a few swings from last year and this year that show his mechanics are still in a good place:

2022

2023

With De La Cruz, there are a few things that I’m focused on making sure are consistent year to year: fluidity, body and barrel adjustments, and reciprocal movements. His ability to maintain torso bend with an adaptable barrel is why he has such a consistent bat path. Everything is smooth from the beginning through the end, and you can see that in the reciprocal movements such as the scissor kick (back leg stepback). Sometimes it’s more pronounced, and sometimes it’s subtle; it’s dependent on the pitch and timing. The main point here is that the swings from last year and this year are nearly identical, making me confident that he’ll keep us his above average hitting.

Let’s move on to Sánchez. Back in January, Ben Clemens wrote about how hard Sánchez hits the ball, and how that should be a trait we pay attention to when searching for breakout hitters. Then Dan Szymborski included him in his preseason breakout picks as well for the same reason, adding that Sánchez had shown tangible progress in plate discipline in the minors last year — something that had been a significant limiting factor in his profile during the first year-plus of his career. He cut down his O-Swing% and bumped up his Contact% — vital improvements for somebody who hits the ball so darn hard.

Now, let’s check in on where those stand this season:

The O-Swing% has improved, but the overall Contact% has taken a dip relative to last season. Sánchez is swinging at pitches in the zone more frequently as well, perhaps in hope of making the most out of his ability to do damage. Either way, there is some conflict here as to whether he has truly made the plate discipline improvement he needed. To get even more context, let’s take a look at his discipline through the lens of Stacast’s Swing/Take Profile, which separates swing zones a little differently than just in and out of the zone:

The wOBAs shown in the table are strictly on swings in the given zones, but this is all very interesting. Sánchez has regained the aggression in the heart of the zone that he had in 2021, which has resulted in him crushing the pitches that are the easiest to do damage on. The best hitters make sure mistakes don’t pass them by. In terms of the shadow zone — the area in and around the edges of the strike zone — his swing rate is nearly identical to last season, but the success has significantly jumped. What this says to me is that he has improved the quality of his swing overall, which has allowed him to get his barrel on pitches around the edges. Beating pitchers when they execute their locations is a great complementary skill to consistently crushing mistakes.

It’s hard to know if this change is completely legit without looking at swing mechanics, so let’s take a look at the video:

2022

2023

This is a case of a hitter adding more free-flowing movement to a swing and seeing immediate rewards. Last year, Sánchez looked stiff, as if he weren’t making the most out of lengthy, stretchy limbs. He has a long swing with long levers; if he needs to move to make the most out of these levers, then it’s best that he doesn’t try to get too quiet to compensate for his whiffing tendencies. On the two swings from this season, he maintained good posture with his straight up-and-open stance. This lets his bat stay on a curveball moving down in the zone and a changeup (albeit not a great one) moving away. I’m not going to say there aren’t holes in his profile that can be exposed — he still struggles against breaking and offspeed pitches overall — but if Sánchez can continue to hunt mistakes and get to pitches around the edges, then he will be an above-average hitter given how hard his contact is.

It’s refreshing to see the Marlins win games despite regression from Sandy Alcantara and the loss of Jazz Chisholm Jr. for an extended period. De La Cruz and Sánchez may not be clear-cut stars, but as above-average hitters, they’re providing their team with something that has been needed for multiple years now. Everybody has their own path to development, and these two hitters have proven that patience can be more than worth it.