The Most Feared Hitter in Baseball

“Who is the most feared hitter in baseball?” is not a question I set out to answer. That would be too easy! Step one: Write “Aaron Judge.” Step two: Let out a bemused chuckle. Obviously it’s Aaron Judge. Who would have commissioned such a silly article? Step three: Get lunch. That does sound pretty tempting, I must admit, but that’s not this article. This one is a little bit weirder.

I started by asking the opposite question: “Who is the least feared hitter in baseball?” I had a simple idea for how to test it. Take a look at the rate of pitches over the heart of the plate that each batter sees when behind in the count – more strikes than balls. A hitter who sees tons of pitches down the middle in a bad hitting situation isn’t a guy who scare opponents. Pitchers are so not afraid that they’re chucking pitches down Broadway even in the situations where that’s least necessary and least advantageous.

The answer to that particular formulation of the question is Alex Call. He’s a perfect storm of least-fearedness. He rarely chases. Heck, he rarely swings; his 50.7% zone swing rate is second lowest in the majors. He’s a card-carrying slap hitter, with the bottom-of-the-barrel bat speed and hard-hit numbers to prove it. Pitchers throw him a ball over the heart of the plate a whopping 31.5% of the time when he’s behind in the count.

Here’s another metric of least feared: Which hitter sees the fewest throwaway pitches when ahead in the count – more balls than strikes? That’s a pitch in the waste zone, uncompetitive and unlikely to draw a swing. A throwaway pitch in a hitter’s count is a sure sign of respect, and therefore, the batters who hardly see these pitches in favorable counts aren’t much concern for pitchers. Too many players to count fit this bill, though I like Thomas Saggese as a representative example. He’s a light-hitting, swing-happy utility infielder; as such, he’s seen one wasted pitch in 113 ahead-in-the-count chances.

If those two measures show hitters who are generally not feared by the population of major league pitchers, it follows that the most feared hitters would fall on the other end of the spectrum. For example, Salvador Perez is second in baseball in waste-zone pitches while ahead in the count. He’s devastatingly powerful, willing to swing in any count, and looking to do damage when he lets it rip. An occasional bounced slider in a 2-0 count is fine; Perez walks so rarely and makes such thunderous contact when he connects that a little fear is a good thing.

You’ll notice that Perez is second on this list, not first. First place? That’d be the most feared hitter in baseball (according to this very specific definition): Noelvi Marte. Marte has faced 157 offerings while ahead in the count. Fifteen of them, 9.6%, were uncompetitive. Not all of these are on purpose, of course, but it’s nevertheless indicative of pitching strategy. Even when Marte is ahead in the count, pitchers have been willing to waste pitches like he’s the second coming of Salvador Perez.

It’s fair to question whether this truly shows “fear,” or whether it’s measuring some trade-off between fear of power and fear of walks. It’s far more likely to be the latter, in fact. So let’s go back to our other metric, pitches right down the middle when the hitter is behind in the count. If Call is the least feared hitter, his opposite number, the player who sees the least heart-zone pitches when behind in the count, should be the most feared. And who is that? Dominic Canzone.

Wait, dangit, that doesn’t tell a good story. Let’s try this again: Who’s second on the list? Noelvi Marte! And he’s second by mere fractions of a percent; Canzone has seen 28 middle-middle offerings out of 216 chances (13.0%), and Marte has seen 24 out of 184 chances (13.0%). Whatever feelings pitchers have toward Call, they do the exact opposite when they see Marte in the batter’s box. When he’s behind in the count, they avoid the center of the strike zone like the plague – lowest heart-zone rate in baseball. When he’s ahead in the count, they avoid the center of the strike zone like the plague – highest waste-zone rate in baseball.

“Wait, Ben,” I can hear you saying. “Isn’t this just zone rate?” After all, we’re talking about a low rate of strikes in one situation and a high rate of balls in another, and both of those point the same way for zone rate. It’s not quite the same, though. Marte has a low zone rate, but not even close to the lowest in baseball. He sports a 48.7% zone rate, closer to league average at 52.5% than to league leader Bryce Harper’s 43.1% mark.

The reason I like this more granular parsing of data is to capture pitcher intent. Zone rate is a blunt tool. Pitchers don’t know exactly where the ball’s going, and most pitches are aimed in the general vicinity of the edge of the zone. You learn a lot more from where pitchers are willing to miss, which is what my two splits measure. If a pitcher throws the ball right down the middle when he’s ahead in the count, he’s probably missed. If a pitcher throws a ball in the waste zone, a non-competitive pitch, when he’s down in the count, he’s surely missed. But a pitcher’s willingness to make mistakes tells us a lot about what he’s afraid of and what he can live with.

Certainly, pitchers would prefer to dot the corner against Call when he’s up there with more strikes than balls, jam him on his hands or get him reaching low and away. But what do they fear? Walking him. And what can they live with? A heater down main street. Conversely, pitchers would love to throw Marte something right on the edge of the zone or just off of it. But what do they fear? His 85th-percentile bat speed and aggressive approach in the strike zone. He’s up there trying to do damage. What can they live with? Missing the zone. He has a 4.3% walk rate, so he’s probably not going to walk regardless.

Now take the other situation, more balls than strikes. Against batters like Saggese and Call, pitchers can live with anything in the zone. What they can’t stomach is a non-competitive pitch. Thus, very low waste-zone rates; pitchers would strongly prefer to chuck it down the middle instead of nibbling and risking a bounced pitch. On the other hand, Marte is almost coming out of his shoes ready to swing. He swings at 84% of middle-middle pitches when ahead in the count, miles ahead of the 74% league average. And again, it’s not like he walks very often; better to waste the occasional pitch even when you’re behind than leave him a cookie.

Normalize each of those two facets of pitcher behavior into z-scores, add them up, and you get a number I’m calling Fear Factor. For individual hitters, it measures how much an opposing pitcher lives on the “avoid homers” side of the avoid-homers-versus-avoid-walks divide. Marte is number one with a bullet:

Seeing Castellanos and Perez on this list makes me feel good about what it’s measuring. If you live at the top of this list, pitchers go out of their way to avoid you. You can learn a lot about hitters from how they’re pitched, and Marte is pitched like some of the freest swingers and biggest boppers in the game. As a side note, I checked whether Marte had just faced a much wilder than average cohort of pitchers, but that wasn’t true: He’s faced opponents with an aggregate 8.6% walk rate, as opposed to 8.4% for the league as a whole.

Will that continue? I expect that it will, at least in broad strokes. Why would you engage with Marte over the heart of the plate on purpose? That’s his happy place. The opposite is true, too. Why would you mess around when you’re facing Call, the player with the lowest Fear Factor in the majors? Throw him strikes and get on with things. This number might not explain every hitter in baseball – but I think it does a good job of capturing the players on both extremes, the guys that pitchers all have a proverbial book on. Here’s the full list for your perusal. But even if you don’t read it, remember this: The most feared hitter in baseball, by one very particular definition, is Noelvi Marte.