The Most Important Trade Ever

Throughout the baseball off-season, much focus is directed towards where the big name players will go. Will CC Sabathia sign with the Yankees? Do the Angels have enough to retain Mark Teixeira? Where will Derek Lowe end up? And who will give A.J. Burnett that elusive fifth year?

Then there are the lesser discussed moves, usually involving role players like Mark Loretta and Casey Blake. These players definitely add value to a team, generally sign for a fee lower than their fair market value, and help round out a roster.

After that, we have what I like to call “wonder trades” primarily because they really make us wonder either a) what was/were the GM(s) thinking? or b) what is the point of this trade? Now, I cannot speak for Walt Jocketty’s reasoning for pulling the trigger on this trade, but the swapping of Ramon Hernandez (and $1 mil) for Ryan Freel (and two prospects) definitely feels like it fits either part of the above definition.

For starters, I can understand that the Reds have a need for a catcher. Paul Bako and Javier Valentin are both currently free agents, meaning they either needed to acquire a veteran or use a prospect. What I don’t get, however, is how they took a look at Hernandez’s projected production and salary, and determined that he was the best fit. Or, for that matter, why trading for him made more sense than re-signing Valentin to a two-year deal. Hernandez is slated to hit .259/.323/.410 in 2009, with a .320 wOBA. Based on his numbers, he would be worth -5 runs below average offensively. It is very tough to quantify catching defense, but I would tend to think he is somewhere in the -5 runs below average range. Factor in his positional adjustment and adjustment for comparison to replacement value and we are looking at a potential +2 win player.

Valentin is projected to be -4 runs below average offensively, and I cannot imagine that he is so significantly worse behind the plate than Hernandez that the difference between the two would be extremely substantial. Combine the two projections and we see that Valentin is likely to produce along the same level as Hernandez. Add in that Hernandez is owed $8 mil in 2009 while Valentin would likely cost below $5 mil and this starts to look very odd.

Then we have Ryan Freel, a sparkplug utility fielder who talks to an imaginary voice named Farney. Freel has had several off the field issues, isn’t a particularly good hitter, but has a reputation for being a great fielder from making some great plays over the years. It is very tough to quantify Freel’s fielding because of his utilityness. With such small samples at several positions, it isn’t exactly clear what his true talent level will be. I cannot imagine he will be a starter with the Orioles, but rather a defensive replacement or spot starter. Normally, he would likely project to be an average corner outfielder, but if he serves as a defensive replacement in centerfield and pinch-runner, his value may actually increase; he wouldn’t be batting much.

Regardless of what Freel brings to the table, this trade just does not make sense to me for the Reds. I mean, honestly, what was the point? Do the Reds think that with Hernandez, and not Valentin or Bako, they will suddenly skyrocket to 90 wins? And is Ryan Freel really the missing piece to the Orioles puzzle? I understand that Weiters is the Orioles catcher of the future and unloading Hernandez is key, but Freel and prospects was all they could get? I’m all for the moves involving role players, but right now we are talking about a trade involving two severely declining role players whose added contribution to their new teams will be marginal at best. Going after a guy like Gerald Laird, as the Tigers did, would have made more sense, especially if the goal is to plug someone in as a cheap and effective stopgap.

But not Hernandez, especially not in the final, and most expensive year, of his contract, with an even more expensive club option for the following season. The Reds did not give up much in Freel, but they did not get much in Hernandez, especially considering there are cheaper and similarly effective alternatives, one of whom–Valentin–has spent significant time in Cincinnati. I’m getting a headache just thinking about this trade. Reds fans, I hope I am not offending you, but honestly, can anyone out there who is a fan of either team… even if you are a bit fanboy… truly justify this trade?

UPDATE: It is now being reported that the Orioles are giving the Reds $3 mil, which drastically changes my opinion on the trade. In that case, the Reds are trading away $4 mil in salary and getting $3 mil towards Hernandez’ $8 mil. Essentially, they are only adding $1 mil in the trade, which makes Hernandez worth it, even as a backup. It might not be pointless, but it sure is boring.