The Nationals Pending Decision

The Washington Nationals have taken swings at two free agent sluggers and have yet to make contact. General Manager Jim Bowden ended 2008 watching Mark Teixeira sign with the New York Yankees for less money, and despite a reportedly similar offer on the table, Bowden brings in 2009 with the loss of Milton Bradley. The Nationals will now decide whether to take a run at another free agent, or instead maintain building through the draft and cost efficient additions.

Rumors about Bowden and Adam Dunn will be the buzz until Dunn signs. Familiarity derives from the duo’s time in Cincinnati. Of course, Manny Ramirez is still out there along with Bobby Abreu, but none of them should be overly appealing to the Nationals. Remember, the Nationals will have the first overall pick along with the tenth pick – assuming they fail to sign Aaron Crow – in June’s draft. Before they attempt to sign any heavily priced free agents, they need to commit to drafting and signing the best available talent, otherwise reorganize their priorities.

Admittedly, Dunn (or whomever) is easier to sell to a disgruntled fan base as a sign of commitment. Selling the brand is important, and part of that is establishing players as “Nationals”, still yet, the long-term health of the franchise will weigh heavier on the draft selections than whomever the Nationals decide to sign.

59 wins earned the Nationals the worst record in baseball. Even if we assume some progression from the youngsters along with some better health, that leaves them on the wrong end of .500. Dunn, Abreu, and Ramirez all share poor fielding, and the Nationals currently have about a trillion outfielders on their roster. 1+2 does not equal 4 which makes this even more puzzling. Here’s a look at how Dunn stacks up to Willie Harris, the Nats incumbent left fielder.

Harris: -4.4 batting runs, 19.1 fielding runs, 14.1 replacement adjustment, -3.3 positional. 3.4 wins.

Dunn: 28.6 batting runs, -22.8 fielding runs, 21.7 replacement adjustment, -8 positional. 1.9 wins.

Of course, Harris had a career year and is unlikely to reach those heights again, but he’s also being paid 1.5 million. Even if Dunn takes a Pat Burrell-esque 2/16 deal, Dunn will have to be 1.25 wins better than Harris to be worth the difference. This is without noting Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, both of whom who should be playing, Austin Kearns, Josh Willingham, Nick Johnson, Wily Mo Pena, and the minor league outfielders the Nationals have signed.

The decision to sign a corner outfielder/first baseman type just doesn’t seem like a smart allocation of assets for the Nationals. Long-term, investing the money into young talent is a better solution than an unsustainable boost in jersey and ticket sales.