The NL West Race Is Over
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers for clinching the first playoff spot of the 2009 season.
Okay, fine, it’s only May 6th. The Dogers have another 134 games to play. Things could go wrong. The whole team might get the swine flu. Short of that, however, this division race is over.
Heading into the season, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks were the two leading contenders for the division, with the Giants kind of lurking as an interesting team if they can find a couple of hitters. The Rockies and Padres were also-rans. The Dodgers looked like a better team than Arizona, but injuries to guys like Hiroki Kuroda threatened to potentially leave the door open for the D’Backs if they could get some production from their young hitters and All-Star seasons from Webb/Haren/Scherzer.
That’s out the window, though. Brandon Webb is on the DL, the D’Backs offense is a mess, and they are now 8.5 games behind the surging Dodgers, who are playing like the best team in baseball despite using Eric Stults and Jeff Weaver in the rotation. The Giants stand as the only team within seven games of LA in the division, and they’re struggling to stay above .500 because they have the worst offense in the National League.
Quite simply, there just aren’t any challengers to the Dodgers throne. At 20-8, they could play .500 ball the rest of the year and finish with 87 wins. The Giants would have to play .548 baseball (75-62) to finish with 88 wins and nip LA by a game. The Diamondbacks would have to play .570 baseball (77-58) to finish with 88 wins and squeak past the Dodgers. And that’s assuming that the LA falls apart and plays .500 baseball the rest of the year.
In reality, we should probably expect the Dodgers to play something like .550 baseball for the remainder of the season. They aren’t 20-8 good, but they’re an above average baseball team, and their +48 run differential is easily the best in baseball. If the Dodgers play .550 ball the rest of the way, they’ll win 94 games. I’m not sure anyone else in the rest of the division will win 84 games, much less 94.
It’s early, yes. Baseball is a crazy sport where all kinds of unexpected things can happen. The D’backs went 20-7 last year to start the year and didn’t win the division. That’s okay – I’m still more than willing to say that the NL West race is over and done with. Thanks for playing, everyone. We’ll see you in October, Dodger fans.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
i’m willing to say this even though last year the same exact situation was proven wrong? what??
Last year wasn’t the exact same situation.
The Dodgers were 5.5 games back when Arizona was 20-7, and they were actually a good team. The D’Backs are 8.5 games back, and without Brandon Webb, they suck.
heh i’m not saying you’re wrong, it just sounds funny 🙂 they do suck without webb thats for sure. hearing mid june at the earliest now, and that’s just not enough time for them to make it up.
The Giants seem like last years Dodgers. They have a great pitching staff, but lack that big bat. If Sabean is able to pull off a Manny Ramirez trade, they might be able to make it close.
How do you figure that Sabean would be able to trade for Manny Ramirez? Most teams don’t trade within the division, and Sabean hasn’t exactly shown a propensity to pull of brilliant trades or signings.
And last year, even without Manny the Dodgers had a better offense than the Giants do this year. I gotta agree with Dave here that this division is pretty much settled.
I read Nick’s comment as a Manny-like impact trade, not trading for Manny Ramirez. “Sabean hasn’t exactly shown a propensity to pull of brilliant trades or signings.” I take it trading for Jeff Kent and Jason Schmidt don’t count…
Not that Sabean’s a good GM, but you should know your facts before you say something like that.
I see I read that wrong now about the “Manny impact” sort of trade. However, I still stand by what I said about Sabean: you’re telling me that Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano for AJ Pierzynski was a good move? Jeremy Accardo for Shay Hillenbrand?
And how about his signings? Barry Zito? Armando Benitez? Aaron Rowand? Steve Finley? Ray Durham? A couple good signings a while back, but nothing notable at all recently. Their player development hasn’t been good under Sabean; they can develop pitchers, but here’s the only hitters their farm system has developed in the past fifteen years: Pedro Feliz and Fred Lewis. These would be my facts.
The site http://www.baseballrace.com can help to see how was the situation last year and obviously all along the past years.
The same day in 2008 Arizona (22-11) was first in the division and the Dogers were second (19-14) 3 games behind. Without the WBC last year at the same date there were more games played
In 2007 the Dogers (18-13) were first in NL West and the Padres (17-14) one game behind.
A big hello from Italy!
I was losing the d … dodgers
dodgers have a thin rotation. that shit can unravel in a heartbeat.
Well, yeah, it certainly looks that way… as it stands now. But it is a long season, and that’s only a cliche because it’s been said so many times, and it’s been said so many times because every year it’s true. There are a lot of games to play, and if they get a bit of a free pass this year in interleague thanks to the anemic AL West, they also still have yet to face the Cardinals or the Phillies or a lot of other teams in the NL with wining records. Things happen. Billingsley or Broxton could get hurt. Kemp might hit a long slump. Manny might decide he wants to be traded to Cleveland, and sit out games (or just not produce) until that happens. Bonds right rejoin the Giants. (Ok, maybe not)
I know you know all this, and I know I don’t have to remind you. But I don’t think the Dodgers should be preparing the spot to hang that pennant quite yet.
Hmm, well Manny could also get suspended for 50 games. Got the guy, not the exact situation. But as I was saying….
I dunno, when Dan Haren loses his first three starts despite only giving up 1, 2, and 1 ER in each game, I don’t see bright things in your future.
I wholeheartedly agree with this assessment.
So when the Dodgers face the Mariners in game one of the World Series, will Billingsley be facing five righty bats in the lineup? 😉
The Dodgers will burn out by July.
ooops…the Diamondback are already burned out.
So this Dodgers fan can blame you first for jinxing it if they don’t make the playoffs? 😉
I’m tempering my enthusiasm a bit just based on experience, knowing they’re due to go on some losing streaks, etc. It’s a long season. Someone else might get injured, etc. But they do have some depth both on bench and in minors to fill in here or there, and it really does look like no one else the division has their act together at the same level.
Again, I’m expecting them to come back down to earth at times this season. And am not going to do any celebrating ’til they make an impact in October. But… I certainly do like their start!
The Diamondbacks offense was rolling when they started out at 20-7 last season too. They managed to lose the division and finish the season just two games over .500. The Dodgers pitching staff has huge potential for attrition–Billingsley/Kershaw are young arms that have been overworked and are enormous risks for flameouts late in the season. Jeff Weaver and Eric Stults are not this good. Plain and simple, the Dodgers aren’t a sure thing like you seem to believe they are.
The Diamondbacks didnt have a hitter like Manny, sorry.
Who knows, maybe Manny will get “injured”.
Maybe I’m psychic and just don’t know it.
“See you in October, Dodgers fans.”
Jays fans, on the other hand…
Meh, Torre tends to baby his starters. Lincecum and Cain might have a bit more to be worried about …
“At 20-8, they could play .500 ball the rest of the year and finish with 87 wins.”
.550 the rest of the way might be a stretch. No doubt about it, the Dodgers are good. Matt Kemp in the seven hole is ridiculous, but they have little to no middle relief, Broxton is already being used in Torre-like fashion, and their two young aces are exactly that…young. Teams will make adjustments to figure out Billingsley. He may win 15 games, but he won’t be as dominant as he has been early.
A team with Jeff Weaver and Eric Stults in the 5-man rotation is not a team to declare champions of a division in early May.
1. The Dodgers have the second best bullpen ERA in the league, I dont know what you’re talking about. 2.Broxton has only l4 innings, 8 saves, and a 0.64 ERA. 3. Billingsley finished with a 3.14 ERA last year, he’s even better this year. 4. Hiroki Kuroda and Jason Schmidt are weeks from returning, when that happens the Dodgers rotation will be very good. 5. Ned Colletti said today that he still intends to acquire another starter and reliever at the trade deadline.
Some valid points, but I definitely wouldn’t count on getting anything useful from Jason Schmidt.
How do you figure teams will suddenly figure out Billingsley if they haven’t already? That’s like saying Johan Santana will cease to be dominant because teams will figure him out.
No middle relief? Belisario and Kuo are pretty good options…and they should have Kuo back down the stretch.
I agree though….way too early to be saying stuff like this….who knows, a Red Sox a la 2006 could always be in order with the shallowness of their rotation.
Ah, I sorta stepped out on this limb last week …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Have-the-Dodgers-already-wrapped-up-the-NL-West-?urn=mlb,159211
Kudos for going out and taking the plunge. Is the water nice?
the water’s friggin cold, haven’t you been swimming yet this year?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hidden-gem-ramon-troncoso
Why Torre has Wade over Troncoso in the depth chart, I have no idea…
That Dave Cameron guy seems touchy and rash–and humorless. I’ve known people like him. They’re all Dodger fans. And they live in their parents’ basement. Maybe those are Star Trek fans. Regardless, way to sound all sure of yourself and then snap at others, Dave Cameron guy. I look forward to your meek rationalizations when you’re proven wrong.
This is snark, right? I didnt realize Dave was a big Dodger fan.
Everyone knows Dave is a Mariner fan.
im guessing you’re a Giants fan…
Shit happens.
I’d just as soon play the games.
The most interesting thing to me, if the player cards on Yahoo! are correct, is that all of the youth driving this team is home grown. The draft is as much of a dice game as anything in sports, and for a team to be so fortunate with these guys from 2002-2004(ish) probably doesn’t happen alot. Maybe if I had more time and incentive I would do some research to find the highest RAA provided in a season by teams playing for the team that drafted them, with exceptions made for those guys who are drafted, sent packing, and then brought back. Or perhaps somebody else could do that (Ahem..FanGraphs). Ethier came from Oakland, but just from names I checked off the top of my head, the Dodgers drafted Kemp, Loney, Billingsley, Martin, Broxton, Wade and McDonald between 2002 and 2004, with Kershaw joining the organization in 2006.
Basically, my point is that it frustrates me to no end as a baseball fan to know that Paul DePodesta could be riding this wave of good fortune in prior drafts instead of Ole’ Snakeskins.
Jesus,
If you’re inferring that DePo had anything to do with any of these draft picks besides Wade, you’re tossing out a little bit of propaganda to defend your guy.
I believe Dan Evans drafted Kemp, Loney, Bills, Martin, Broxton and McDonald. So either Colletti or DePo could be riding a wave someone else created (with Colletti adding Kershaw). Sorry, I just hate when people use the young guys to defend DePodesta. He and Colletti treated them the same way, wisely holding onto them.
Say what you will about Colletti (and you don’t have to say much more than “Juan Pierre”) but the Manny trade basically brought him almost back to even with me. I’m not sure DePodesta would have parted ways with LaRoche to make that happen – he was always his kind of player.
Anyway, God Bless Logan White.
I’m Big Bad Mucus and I’m taking over this blog!
Giants fan I presume.
I think Dave is likely right, but I would not count out the Giants to at least make it interesting. They have several slumping bats that could come to life (Rowand) and with just a little more hitting they could make a serious run. I do think the Rockies, Snakes, and Padres are done. One of them will win 70 games just because they each play each other so much.
Dodgers are the best team in baseball this year on paper. I see no reason why they can’t keep winning. I see over a 100 wins as very possible!
nah
Sorry Daniel,
I could have done more to clarify what I was trying to say. When I said DePo could easily be riding the same wave of good fortune from prior drafts, I intended that to mean drafts prior to both DePo and Colletti’s term as GM.
I don’t have any real big issues with Colletti. I’m not a Dodgers fan, and that Manny deal was excellent. I just have a big crush on DePo, and it kind of stinks as a fan of his to see that the driving force behind the success of the organization that let him go is a collective of players arbitrary to both he and his replacement.
EDIT:
I should probably also clarify that I understand that had DePo stuck around, he would have just sat on his hands and watched these guys develop like they have. Being that they didn’t have the track record they do now during his tenure, and the fact that he was stepping into an organization as part of a revolutionary front office trend, he easily could have moved any of those parts.
It’s just something harmless to think about.
I gotcha. DePo has a big fan base. Colletti might have the exact opposite. But the staff beneath them, especially Logan White, have done a hell of a job. I could see Logan White getting a job somewhere else as a GM anytime, and as a Dodgers fan, it scares me.
PitchFX says that Eric Stults is throwing a 2-seam fastball that he’s never thrown before. Same velocity as the changeup but it doesn’t drop as much. Interesting if true.
I love those PitchFX graphs! Awesome.
With the Padres drawing 14,000 in May, they will sell Peavey to the Dodgers in July. That will cinch the Western Division and the NL Pennant.
Woohoo, take that Giants
Go big blue
who said anything about the gianst going .550? they r going 1.000. We’re gonna trade sanchez for uggla and then call up jesus guzman, who has a .893 OPS in fresno. if zito can keep it up we easily have the best 1-4 starters in baseball and getting a few good offensive players could put us over the top.
All the manny talks make me really think. WHY THE FUCK DID WE LET BARRY LEAVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! An 80 year old bonds is better than the overpayed “gamer” we have playing center field.
you know what could also hurt the dodgers?
manny being suspended for 50 games.
That could certainly hurt a little.
Ooo my bad I didn’t see you post this.
That news just made my day…or next 50 days haha
And there’s the condition about the dodgers playing .500 from here on out.
If Upton can keep up close to his current hitting, and the Diamondbacks can score some runs, this division could get interesting…
Manny’s 50-game suspension may tweek this a bit. Plus like someone said above, the Giants have a few bats that should be waking up soon. I’ll add Fred Lewis & Randy Winn to that mix. Bullpen is getting Romo back in a few weeks & you know RJ & Cain won’t pitch like crap for long…
Plus they have that Sandoval guy…
The baseball gods have decided to mock this column.
LMAO!!
Awesome.
well played
I think it’s time you retract this statement. But, thanks for jinxing the Dodgers. We needed that.
GO GIANTS!!!
This is why you do not write articles like this a month into the season.
Go suck an egg, Dave Cameron!
HAHAHAHAHA FAIL!
Thanks for the Jinx!
thanks for jinxing the dodgers
HaHaHa-HaHa… Laugher!
Boy, the timing of this couldn’t have been better. It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers are able to respond to this, but Pierre for Manny is not really a recipe for continuing the success.
Even before the Manny-fitty, I would have noted that Hudson is hitting way above what he normally does, he hasn’t been a very good hitter outside of Arizona, and he’s been hitting a storm in LA, a park not known for its hitter conduciveness, in fact, it’s a strong pitcher’s park. His road numbers this year is closer to his career stats.
He was admittedly good previously – .313/.375/.463/.838 in LA prior to this season – but he’s hitting .460/.550/.740/1.290 at home so far. Any team with a player that hot is going to win a lot of games at home but he’s not going to hit like that all season. He’s going to cool down by a lot, and should be closer to his .254/.324/.388/.712 on the road, lifetime .276/.335/.410/.745 on the road. With less runners being on in front of the big guns, that should slow down their scoring by a lot, particularly at home where runs are worth more since it’s a pitcher’s park.
In addition, as nicely as Billingsley has taken over for Lowe as top dog in their rotation, you aren’t going to win many games in a full season when you have three starting pitchers with ERA’s basically 5 and over. Jeff Weaver will help now at home, because he (like most pitchers) love to pitch in Dodger Stadium but, unfortunately for them, he is very average, heck below average, on the road (as are most Dodger pitchers).
And their best pitching prospect, James McDonald, isn’t doing it for them right now, and their other pitching prospects don’t look ready to do anything yet for the big club, so this is as good as it gets for their starting pitching.
And as nicely as Billingsley has done, he most probably will not continue to keep his BABIP at .258 for the season, bringing his ERA up as the season stretches on. With a 2.84 FIP, if he reaches that this season (he’s 2.21 now), his ERA for the rest of the season would be 3.59, which is good, but not dominating like he is now, and Pierre for Manny, and Hudson cooling off, should drop their 5.55 RS/game by a lot, so he won’t be winning games so easily the rest of the season.
As I’ve been saying for a long while, the Dodgers don’t have a rotation that is going to get them anywhere. In 29 games, they have allowed 4 or more runs in 13 games (going 5-8) and is 16-0 in games where they allow 3 runs or less. Both are going to get worse, a lot worse. And that was even before Manny was suspended nor did I get into Broxton and Troncoso not keeping their ERA under 1.00 for the whole season. They are good, but not that good, and not for a whole season. And the rest of their bullpen, well, I wouldn’t expect them to do that well in games passed to their middle relievers, as Billingsley start regressing to his mean, and as their other starters continue to stink.
summarizing what obsessivegiantscompulsive just said: the giants r raw and the dodger suck nuts.
Looks like manny couldnt pull off manny being barry.
“Things could go wrong.”
Never has an opinion piece contained a more ominous hedge.
Oh manny.
What have you done.
That Dave Cameron sure is an egg-sucker. And also thin-skinned. Perhaps uniformly ugly, too? Regardless, he is rash and over-reactive. Good jinxing, egg-sucker!
The amusing thing is that I still think the division race is over. The Dodgers can stay afloat for 50 games without Manny. Like Dave said, they only need to go .500 and they’ll win 87 games. You don’t think that this team can go .500 without Manny in that atrocious division? Not to mention that when Manny gets back there’ll still be about half the season left…
Maybe it’s not so hugely obvious as it was before, but I still think the Dodgers pretty much have the NL West wrapped up.
Still over? Tell me when this gets back on, because it seems like it might be a good show to watch.
So um…
LA 71-50
COL 67-53
SF 66-55
Since the ASB:
LA: 148 RS, 134 RA
COL: 165 RS, 124 RA
SF: 114 RS, 119 RA
So I doubt SF catches up (I throw them in because they still have an okay shot at the WC if the Rockies don’t keep rolling), but if we can say for LA and COL that this is their “true” level of play for the rest of the season, then COL goes around 26-16 the rest of the way, and LA goes around 22-19. So yeah, looks like the NL West race isn’t over.
Probably doesn’t matter though since LA and Colorado both look healthy for the postseason imo.
Okay re-hash time.
Rockies have a 25% chance now. Not like it matters, outside of first round home field.
And…. once again, Dave Cameron was right, and all his detractors are lining up to concede and apologize. Right?
Right?
[crickets]
They’re too busy gloating over Jason Kubel.
Except that the article isn’t a wild assertion.
With a record of 20-8, the Dodgers at that point had an 80.3% chance of winning the division.
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp