The Other Young Power Threat on the Yankees

We spent the latter half of last year drooling over Gary Sanchez, and rightfully so. The phrases “raking” and “mashing” and “laying waste to all that stand before you” were all invented by Greek philosophers to describe what Sanchez accomplished last year. When he first arrived, though, Sanchez’s success caused us to recall the 2015 success of one Greg Bird.

Bird had been called up to replace Mark Teixeira, and he hit well enough to help get the Yankees to the Wild Card game. He started that game at first base — partly because the Yankees lacked a legitimate right-handed option at the position to play against Dallas Keuchel, but also because Bird had acquitted himself well in his 46 games in pinstripes. Sanchez obviously far surpassed Bird’s own accomplishments. And because Bird missed all of 2016 while recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, the memory of those 46 games faded into the mist.

This spring may have been a good reminder of what Bird can do.

Spring-training statistics aren’t a good indicator of what will happen once we hit Opening Day. Batters are facing pitchers who either aren’t ready to be in the big leagues just yet or big-league pitchers who haven’t yet fully ramped up to being ready for the long haul. We’re going to throw out Bird’s high batting average and the handful of home runs that he’s hit, at least partially. We’re throwing them out in the sense that you can’t extrapolate them out over a full season (pay no attention to the Sanchez thing I just wrote, nothing to see there) and use them as the basis of a projection.

But certain metrics become reliable in a sample of one. A pitcher who throws a single 100-mph fastball is likely to throw another one — or, at least, another of similar velocity. A pitcher who throws five consecutive 90-mph fastball is unlikely to hit 100 mph on the sixth. In each case, the number is a manifestation of physical ability.

One equivalent to fastball velocity for batters is power on contact. Every one of Giancarlo Stanton’s improbably giant home runs is a testament to his impressive physical capacities, something he’s likely to replicate in the future. Likewise, one recognizes that Dee Gordon — who record one of the lowest peak exit velocities last year — is unlikely to cobble together a 30-homer campaign based on the evidence of his best effort.

In other words, one or two batted balls can provide a great deal of information about a hitter’s true talent. One or two batted balls like this one:

And this one, as well:

Again, this isn’t a matter of Bird launching dingers off half-prepared pitchers still trying to refine their mechanics. It’s a matter of how well the man is driving the ball. Bird’s shoulder injury was a labrum tear, and those can be tricky. There was reason to be concerned about Bird’s capacity to drive the ball, even after going to the Arizona Fall League for a tune-up.

A month and change later, it looks like Bird’s going to be just fine as far as ball-striking is concerned. If he can keep making this sort of contact, he’s going to make the Yankee lineup very interesting indeed. He’s one of those players who’s nearly tailor-made for that short porch in right field, and his swing and that porch combined could result in a 30-homer campaign. That’ll allow him to far outpace his projections, both in terms of production and playing time.

The Yankees aren’t going to be lacking for impact power bats. As Travis Sawchik detailed earlier, Aaron Judge is on the right track to potentially mash this season. And not for nothing, they did bring in Matt Holliday to DH, and he should still have some thunder left in his bat. The Yankees may wind up being hamstrung by their lack of pitching, but they’re going to (theoretically) score some runs.

It’s also interesting to note that, unlike years past, the Yankees’ power will primarily be coming from the right-handed side of the plate. Sanchez, Judge and Holliday are all righties, and Starlin Castro provided 20 homers, as well, last year. Traditionally, the Yankees have built their rosters around left-handed power bats like Bird’s so that they can take advantage of the right-field porch. Bird will be carrying on that tradition for the foreseeable future if this quality contact is for real. He’ll be the latest in a long line of big left-handed sluggers playing first base in pinstripes. Chris Carter may be spending a lot of time on the bench, or in another uniform.

This season will serve as a preview of sorts for what’s to come down the line, when the young players are all settled in and Brian Cashman has added in better complementary pieces. Clint Frazier is going to come up at some point, and August or September may provide a brief glimpse at Gleyber Torres. This is going to be a younger and more dynamic Yankees team than we’ve seen in a long, long time.

They may not win a lot this year. We’re probably still looking at a team that will probably record a win total in the mid-80s. But this is going to be a fun team, and a lot of that will come from Bird’s towering shots.

But you’ve probably heard. It was my understanding that everyone had heard.