The Record-Setting 2014 Rockies
As the headline notes, the Colorado Rockies set a record this year, but it’s not the kind that they’re going to want to celebrate: they tied the 2006 Indians for the biggest negative difference between their BaseRuns expected record and their actual finish, at least for the years in which we have BaseRuns data, which covers 2002-2014.
Their actual record was 66-96, good for just a .407 winning percentage. Their expected record by BaseRuns was 77-85, a mediocre-but-not-awful .476 winning percentage. By actual record, the Rockies were the second worst team in baseball, but by BaseRuns, they were “only” the 10th worst team. What went wrong?
Differences between actual results and BaseRuns expectations are due to the sequencing of events, with either a team not turning their baserunners into runs (or allowing too many runners to score), or failing to turn the runs they did score and allow into wins due to an abnormal distribution of when those runs were scored and allowed. The easiest way to tell which of the sequencing factors applied to a specific team is to look at the difference between their BaseRuns record and their pythag record.
A team that struggled with the baserunners to runs conversion will have a very large difference between BaseRuns and pythag, since the latter is based on runs scored and allowed. A team that simply didn’t time their runs correctly will have a very small difference between the two. As you can see on our BaseRuns Standings page, the Rockies underperformed their pythag record by nine wins, almost the entirety of their 11 run difference between actual record and BaseRuns. Their problem was much more on the timing of run scoring, rather than simply the runners-to-runs conversion.
The biggest contributors to the team’s lack of clutch performance? Troy Tulowitzki (-1.53), Charlie Blackmon (-1.33), Chad Bettis (-1.21), Yohan Flande (-1.24), and Matt Belisle (-1.18) all each cost the team more than a win with their negative performances in high leverage situations, while Michael McKenry and Carlos Gonzalez were both at -0.9 wins, so they just missed the arbitrary cutoff for being shamed on that list. There was no single culprit; this was a team effort.
But this is also good news for the Rockies, even though it probably didn’t feel like good news watching it. Here are the other five teams since 2002 who underperformed their BaseRuns record by at least eight wins, along with their performance in the next season.
2011 Padres: 71-91, 79-83 expected record: 76-86 in 2012
2005 Blue Jays: 80-82, 88-74 expected record: 87-75 in 2006
2002 Cubs: 67-95, 75-87 expected record: 88-74 in 2003
2009 Blue Jays: 75-87, 84-76 expected record: 85-77 in 2010
2006 Indians: 78-84, 89-73 expected record: 96-66 in 2007
These five teams averaged 74 wins per season in their underperforming year, and then 86 wins in the next season. We bang the regression to the mean drum a lot around here, but that’s because it remains one of the most powerful forces in baseball. The 2014 Rockies weren’t a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but the things that drove their record down aren’t likely to carry over to 2015.
That doesn’t mean the Rockies shouldn’t make serious changes this winter, and even with expected regression, they probably still won’t be contenders next year. But don’t be too shocked if the 2015 Rockies are one of the most improved teams in baseball by winning percentage next year, because they just weren’t as bad as their record this year suggests.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Is it possible that the baseruns formula for the Rockies is being thrown off by a Divide by Terrible exception caused by their pitching?
Not unless their pitchers were pitching to their batters while their baserunners were failing to score runs
I keep hearing the Rockies should “blow it up”, but I disagree.
C- Rosario- decent
1B-Mornaeu- Good Player
2B-….ok serious weakness
SS- Tulo- Top 3 player when heathy
3B-Arenado- Looks like an top tier 3B
OF-Cargo/Cuddyer/Blackmon/Dickerson is good
SP-Jon Gray,Eddie Butler,JDLR isn’t a bad start.Matzek hasn’t been awful.
Matzek has been better than “not awful.” Since a really terribly start against the Tigers early in his call-up, he’s been lights out actually. The Rockies problem is they can’t stay on the field. Oh, and their bullpen was epically, shockingly, historically, grotesquely bad. That’s where I assume a lot of the losses came from.
Well a bad bullpen is exactly the kind of thing that can lose close games, which causes pythag underperformance
The Rockies 2014 bullpen WPA was -8.35, which is sixth worst since 1974. Yeah, it was bad, but they can bring back the same squad and reasonably expect Michael better results. Hawkins, Logan, Ottavino, and Brothers will all be back.
Rosario is not decent and is unlikely to be the starter next year. DJ LeMahieu at 2B might win a gold glove, and if he doesn’t he’s at least deserving. The absent bat is hard to take but given the Rockies’ emphasis on ground ball pitchers he, Tulowitzki, and Arenado make an infield that is downright unfair (when healthy). They don’t need to blow it all up, but stasis will only result in mediocrity.
Rosario is pretty bad defensively. Tulo and cargo get injured too often and need to be traded
So, I understand the magnitude of what I’m saying here, but it’s a true statement: Kershaw was worth more WAR than the Rockies’ entire rotation this year. Gray’s got potential, and Butler isn’t too far removed from him, but 2.1 WAR from your best rotation starter and less from everyone else isn’t getting the job done.
In their World Series season of 2007, the Rockies got 10-11 fWAR from the starting rotation, including almost 4 from Jeff Francis. This year, they combined for less than 7. They also got 4-5 wins from the bullpen in 2007, while this year they had 2-3. That’s a 6 win difference right there. If you take that and add it to the regression swing, you’re an 85 win team.
The lineup (top 12 guys – 8 starters and 4 backups) was worth 23-24 fWAR in 2014, and 26-27 in 2007. The Rockies really aren’t too far removed from their best lineup ever, and they probably can’t significantly improve at any lineup position except C, 2B and maaaaybe 1B, but they only really need about 3 more total wins from these positions than the ~3 wins they got from Lemahieu, Morneau and Rosario. Hell, that’s Emilio Bonifacio and a slightly better platoon at 1B for Morneau (Kyle Parker had an ~.800 OPS in AAA last year and hits lefties pretty good).
It seems like insanity to say it, but the Rockies aren’t THAT FAR removed from being a playoff team again.
Hahahaha.
The Rockies problems go beyond the baseball field. The ownership is inept, inflexible, and paralyzed to make key decisions; in addition, the President ((Dick Monfort, do you hear me?)) does not know baseball, and trusts solely Dan O’Dowd.
The Rockies had a winning record on 27 May, after that they went 38-71 for a .348 winning percentage. Seems I remember some very high batting averages that dropped and key injuries finally doomed the season.
Speaking of record setting, the Padres had the lowest team batting average, .226, since the 1972 Mets hit .225 as a team 42 years ago.
And relating that to the subject at hand: the Rockies’ Justin Morneau just won the NL batting crown with a .319 average. That’s the lowest winning average since Terry Pendleton hit the same mark in 1991. (In the AL, you’d have to go all the way back to Rod Carew’s .318 in 1972).
Of course, Morneau also won it while sitting on his ass, unlike Jose Altuve.
I read this article, and was thinking the real problem might be the Rockies home-road splits. They score tons of runs at home, but also allow tons of runs. They score very few runs on the road, but still allow tons of runs.
Splitting up the data gives you the following:
Home: 500 runs scored, 444 runs allowed
Road: 255 runs scored, 374 runs allowed
Which gives you:
Home: 45-36 expected, 45-36 actual
Road: 26-55 expected, 21-60 actual
Total: 71-91 expected, 66-96 actual
This calculation has the Rockies only five games worse than expected, and still quite awful in terms of performance as well as sequencing.
This is so much better to look at than the author’s take on viewing the entire season with one set of numbers. And, just for the record, we don’t need advanced stats or even basic stats to understand why the Rockies were so bad. If you watched any of their road games, you saw they simply did not hit well on the road.
Is it bad that there’s a part of me that wants to team Dan O’Dowd with Fredi Gonzalez and a quarter billion dollar budget just so we can find out exactly how bad these people are at their jobs??
-C
Funny fact on those base-run W-L records: the Rockies were just 4 games worse than the playoff-bound Royals.
They’re going to the playoffs? I thought they still had to play Oakland tonight.
Unless the stats tonight count towards the regular season, that game is the playoffs.
Don’t fall for Bud Selig’s tricks.