The Rockies As A 2015 Sleeper Team
The Rockies are always in a weird spot. No matter what they do or don’t do, no one ever really seems to care about them. They’re just kind of there. They maintain a low profile, and even if they never spend big, their payroll is not so low that it sticks out. Most stories that gain traction are “oh, those crazy Rockies” sorts of stories. The Four-man rotation, the GM with an office in the clubhouse, the two-headed GM, the humidor, the Giants whining about the humidor, and altitude, altitude, altitude. Rarely do we just focus on what’s going on in between the lines with the Rockies. But this season, that may change, as there is a legit case to be made for the Rockies as sleeper team.
Based on our projected standings, which are a combination of Steamer’s projections and our playing time manipulations from our depth charts, there are two definitively good National League teams — the Dodgers and Nationals. At 91 wins apiece, they pace not just the NL but all of baseball in our projected standings. But aside from them, the league doesn’t have any real standouts, and the teams sort of congeal around two spots on the win curve:
- 83-86 wins: Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Pirates
- 81 wins: Marlins
- 76-79 wins: Brewers, Padres, Mets, Reds, Rockies
So, if we accept that two playoff spots are tied up by LA and Washington (a big assumption, obviously, but go with it for now) then these 10 teams are vying for the other three. To be clear, the Rockies are pegged at 77 wins. You might think that sounds about right, or even generous. But, let’s roll through a few reasons why the Rockies could clear that bar and swaddle themselves in the middle of the playoff pack.
Tyler Matzek
Once upon a time, Matzek was the next big thing. His minor league career sort of ran off the rails though. Like, far off the rails. But he snapped open some eyes with his big league debut. His 88 FIP- (86 as a starter) was easily the best in the Rockies starting rotation, and his strikeout rate jumped up in each month he was in the majors. If he can be that guy for six months, the Rockies just might have a four-win pitcher on their hands.
Eddie Butler and Jon Gray
The pair of top 20 prospects have very little ground left to cover, if any, in the minors. It’s new ground for the Rockies to have a duo of highly touted pitching prospects. Highly touted though they are though, they are still Rockies prospects, and so their projections are quite modest — both from a performance and innings pitched standpoint. Together, they are slotted in for just 167 innings in 2015. And, if they pitch the way they are projected to, that will probably all they deserve. But if they pitch to their pedigrees, they might double that total and significantly upgrade the rotation in the process. Only time will tell, but outside of the Cubs, there are few teams with this source of untapped potential ready to burst onto the scene in 2015.
Staying out of the trainers room
Rockies trainers Keith Dugger and Scotty Gehret have been busy little bees the last few seasons. And usually it has been tending to the team’s best players. Some have been freak things (Nolan Arenado), but others have been chronic or recurring (Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Jhoulys Chacin). It’s the latter trio that the Rockies have to count on rebounds from. Two of the three collectively gave the team nothing last season, and no matter how much Tulowitzki gives the team, they always need more from him. That’s the burden of being one of the 10 best players in the game. Should they be healthy to suit up for 600 plate appearances and 200 innings apiece, it’ll go a long way to putting the Rockies in the right space to contend. (Boone Logan recovering from the bone spurs in his elbow and not being a total disaster would be nice too.)
Jairo Diaz
In his first four professional seasons, the right-hander struck out just 17.2 percent of the batters he faced. Last season, facing tougher competition for much of the season, he struck out 31.2 percent of the batters he faced. That’s a 14 percent difference, if you’re scoring at home. Just 5.2 of those innings were in the majors, but Diaz pumps 97 mph cheese, and if him making the leap last season was for real then the Rockies may just have a brand new relief ace on their hands.
Depth/Wiggle Room
Generally, the Rockies walk a tightrope of having just enough depth, just enough payroll room to survive a full season if nothing goes wrong. If everything is magic, the team sees Rocktober. That is generally not how things work, and so new general manager Jeff Bridich has done his best to quietly line up contingencies. The team has filled up its cupboard, but there is still wiggle room to add a veteran pitcher or two in free agency. There is also some intriguing prospects that the team could dangle. Ryan McMahon could slide over to first base if and when he reaches the majors, but his value may never be higher than it is now, and if he sticks at third base…well, he’s not sticking at third base in Colorado. That’s Arenado’s turf. David Dahl and Raimel Tapia similarly both can’t play center field, and as long as Gonzalez and Corey Dickerson are around, there will be an odd man out. If the Rockies are determined to make some headway in the trade market to improve the 2015 club, they have some nice chips that they can deal relatively guilt free.
Random Variation
Last year at this time, the Orioles were a 78-win team. Stuff happens, and it’s been awhile since good stuff happened to the Rockies. Maybe LaTroy Hawkins really pimps out the final season of his subtly awesome career. Maybe Rex Brothers remembers how to pitch. Maybe Jordan Lyles was for real last year. Maybe DJ LeMahieu has one of those slappy, .310/.340/.415 seasons in him. Maybe Michael McKenry has another 141 wRC+ in him. In other words, the Rockies have a lot of guys who look mediocre or worse on paper, but who have the talent for that one great season in them. Most teams do, actually. But perhaps it’s the Rockies turn.
After the Dodgers and Nationals, the NL is pretty tightly bunched. Fans of teams that want their team to acquire Troy Tulowitzki think the Rockies should be in fire sale mode, and perhaps they’re not wrong. But on paper the Rockies are a 77-win team that with a few breaks could easily be an 86-win team, and these days that’s good enough. The team could certainly be doing more, but as constituted, there’s a chance they could be a sleeper in 2015.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Tyler Matzek is a one trick pony though, He has a nice slider, a bad fastball, and a terrible changeup. I’m not optimistic on him.
I think you could write this same article for every single team projected at 75-80 wins. Get some surprising performances, a breakout from a top prospect, avoid injuries, find a relief ace out of nowhere, flip some marginal prospects into something interesting, and voila, maybe a 85-90 win season.
Agreed but lately O’s seem to be able to make a 75-80 win team into 90 wins, and Rockies turn the same level of team on paper into a 65 win team. Rockies haven’t been .500 since 2010 and didn’t make any significant moves. Out of this bunch of teams near 75-80 wins I think most people don’t see them as ready to contend. For example Pad’s and ChiSox are “going for it” and have some believers but are they really any better than Rockies?
I don’t see the O’s as a great comp for Colorado. I think Baltimore had much better balance of hitting and pitching, despite not having a true ace. And in 2014 they even had a bullpen, with the emergence of Britton and Miller. To say they’ve been a 75 win team winning 90 games seems a bit harsh, but oh well. We’ll see how they do now that they’ve lost a lot of what made them so competitive recently.
With Colorado it seems simple. You can’t lose that many ABs from CarGo, Tulo and Cuddyer and expect to compete. And you can’t be that terrible at half the game (pitching) and expect the same. I know ERA isn’t the best stat, but it’s still pretty telling that even away from Coors their best starter’s ERA was Lyles’ 3.93. And that was far and away the best. It always seems their rotation saviors are on the way – either on the cusp of the majors or a year away – but rarely do any pan out. If I were them, I’d be doing everything I can to try and steal Ray Searage away from the Pirates.
…which ought to come as no surprise since the width of WAR/Win curve is almost 20 wins at 80 WAR.
And, at least according to the betting website I use, the rox have the longest world series odds of ANY team in the major leagues. Paul has undoubtedly gone out on a limb, this is a massive non-consensus call. Of course he’s not saying they’re the Dodgers but they have some solid, high upside pieces in place, and some really interesting ingredients on the fringe that can make a difference. For a team everbody has written off, it runs sharply against the narrative. When was the last time (in any sport) you saw the team least fancied out of any team in the whole league put forward as a sleeper option? Hats off for putting this out there…
Agreed, Adam. This is the kind of reasoning that every fan uses for every team.
Also agree with Adam. This article had little substance.
So, if everything goes right a team has a chance to over perform expectations? Please tell me more.
Wow, the NL Central is going to be quite a race. I may need to watch more Pirates and Cubs games.
It would not shock me if 7 games separate first from last in the NL Central come end of season.
Realistically one team will probably have everything go right or wrong and be a slight outlier, but on paper, that’s going to be a really fun division this year.
(The smart money is on the Cardinals, though, because… betting against them just seems kind of dumb, really)
I dunno, I just don’t see enough wins to go around for Milwaukee or Cincy to be within shouting distance of the top of the division. But one never knows, the Brewers definitely surprised for about four months last year before tailing off.
Enough with article after article about the Red Sox, Rays and A’s.
Write about another team for a change.
You forgot the /s.
It was totally necessary too.
I must have missed all those articles on the Rays, not that there’s much to write about. The headline would be, “Rays could be good, but probably won’t.”
(Yes, I am a Rays fan.
I think another interesting such article could be written about the Orioles, whose rotation seems to be seriously underrated by Steamer (and I’m not a projections are biased or even an Orioles fan). Chris Tillman at 0.9 WAR? I’ll take the over.
Buck uses some serious voodoo to keep his pitchers at that level. Steamer can’t handle the power
O’s pitchers do something which is not common, i.e. be effective without really striking many people out. Part of it is a fantastic defense, another part of it is inducing lots of weak contact. Both of these are skills.
It’d obviously be foolish to expect the rotation to be as good as they were in the second-half of last year, though – not because FIP says they won’t be, mind you, but because pitchers are never as good as they appear to be when they are at their best. So, we can expect some regression, but don’t be surprised if the rotation is still very solid in 2015.
What I’d like to know is how many more years it would take of the O’s beating the projections before most people here accept the likely fact that their recent success has not been all (or even mostly) “luck.” I know Dave Cameron wrote an article arguing that these data don’t give us any reason to think their projection system is missing something, but the analysis in that article was…lacking, to say the least. Maybe a successful 2015 will have some people changing their tunes. Or not.
Eh, nobody ever actually pointed out any specific issues with the projections, and what Dave was discussing was the Orioles heavily outplaying their run differential which has nothing at all to do with projection systems. I’m very skeptical of any continuity between this year’s problems and other years’ hypothetical ones, but I do believe that we can reasonably believe the Orioles rotation might be 2-3 WAR better than projected.
Seems like the lineup has a chance to be pretty good both offensively and defensively, especially if CF is a Stubbs/Blackmon platoon and 1B is split between Morneau/Rosario. Obviously Tulo and Cargo healthy in the middle of the order is the linchpin, and expecting 140+ games out of each of them seems…a bit foolish at this point. But as a Rockies fan I’ve got my fingers crossed that maybe for one year the stars will align.
The rotation scares me a bit more: gonna need De la Rosa to be solid, Matzek prove he’s for real, Chacin to rebound, Lyles to eat up innings and be decent. It’s a lot to ask for.
Paul, I’d be interested to hear what you think the Rockies FO will do with Gray and Butler. Would it surprise you if they both broke camp in the rotation?
It wouldn’t surprise me, but my feeling is that only one of them will, and the other will be the first man up when something goes wrong.
It is interesting that the Rockies AAA is in Albuquerque. If you want to put Gray in a launching pad, it might as well be Coors IMO
One thing that I have noticed is that pitchers the Rockies have big future plans for MOST of the time jump from AA to the majors so they don’t lose that confidence in a AAA launching pad.
First year for the Rockies in Albuqurque…They were in Colordo Springs before…IDK what happened there.
Albuquerque should be a bit easier on pitchers than Colorado Springs was. It’s also a much better facility and has an airport near it which makes it a little easier to get minor league call ups to road games. Skipping AAA has become pretty common among major league teams though.
Never heard good things about pitching in Colorado Springs from the callups (or rehab assignments). The park basically sits on top of a hill and the wind swirls there considerably making it very hard for pitchers to perfect release points and mechanics.
…Is there not an airport in Colorado Springs?
I believe it was Buster Olney (correct me if I’m wrong) that ranked the Rockies lineup as 4th in the major leagues. I won’t say Tulo and Cargo will each play 150 games each but looking at the types of injuries they had and the surgeries to solve these issues are meant for long term fixes just maybe they could get 130-140 each. Arenado and Dickerson should both improve as scary as that is.
The key is the rotation as always, they don’t need to be world beaters but finishing above average (7th or better) would go a LONG way. The biggest thing that irks me is the projections of who will pitch, it seems to be De La Rosa, Chacin, Butler, Gray and nobody else mentioned. Truth is former 1st round pick Tyler Anderson had a fantastic season last year and looks nearly ready, Matzek I do believe can be at least a good pitcher who can be inconsistent at times and I think Lyles showed he was for real last year and was no fluke. The saddest part of the offseason for me as a Rockies fan was losing Dan Winkler in the rule 5 as his outings in the minors were building a lot of excitement among fans.
I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if the Rockies are in play for a wild card this year… and I wouldn’t be surprised if the worst happens again (13 different SP due to injuries by the all star break) and they are dead last.
If only they could sign Shields…. and if only he could pitch well enough at Coors. They are a #1 SPer from being a contender.
They’re a #1 SP away from not being a train wreck. Let’s not go crazy.
“Stuff happens, and it’s been awhile since good stuff happened to the Rockies.”
something something fallacy
They definitely seem to be one of the more high-variance mediocre teams, which as the Royals and Orioles can attest, is a heck of a lot better than being a low-variance mediocre team (cough…White Sox…cough). The formula goes like this: a couple of legitimate stars who stay healthy (Adam Jones, Alex Gordon, et al) + improvement of toolsy/youngish guys who haven’t broken out yet (Jonathan Schoop, Alcides Escobar, Chris Tillman, Danny Duffy, etc.) + cluster luck/beating Pythagorean record.
In short: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCKOI24k_UY
Go Rockies!
The Rockies do NOT play well on the road, and that seems to be an adjustment-to-lower-altitude issue. Forgot where I read that.
Poor Phillies (68), Braves (71), and Dbacks (74).
Hey, the Phillies are gonna be a sleeper team, too. 5 minutes of watching them play, and you’ll be snoozing in no time!
The ’09 Rockies trotted out a starting rotation basically comprised of five #3 starters. I think that is their formula for success instead of pursuing an ace.
De la Rosa, Chacin, Matzek, Lyles, and Butler would essentially be just that. None of those guys would be considered a top-of-the-rotation starter, but none of them is really a bottom-feeder, either.
Tulo and CarGo staying healthy is obviously the key, as would CarGo adopting a team-first attitude about hitting leadoff as he is easily the best choice for that role on the roster.
They got off to a solid start last year before some key injuries, so yes, they could definitely be a surprise team with good health and a couple of breaks here and there.
Will respectfully disagree with Cargo being a leadoff hitter because:
Strikes out way too much (career 23.7%)
All those (potential) HR’s go to waste
If he does have knee issues, the pressure to steal bases is not a good thing
I know everyone wants speed at the top of the lineup but with hitters like Cargo, Tulo, Dickerson, Arenado behind they don’t necessarily need a ton of speed so my pick for leadoff (which many will laugh at) :
Morneau
Career .352 OBP (.364 2014)
10.9% K’s in 2014
.496 slugging last season (32 doubles, 3 triples, 17 home runs) so he can get to second base and score without speed
AND the biggest reason he should lead off.. home/road average .327/.309.. the Rockies should be killing for a guy to leadoff who can hit on the road and at home.
Homers don’t “go to waste.” A run is a run
Absolutely true but if a guy can hit 30 HR in a healthy season why put him in a position to not have runners on in front of him.. a la “a waste”. If LeMahieu starts the 8 and 9 hole are rough spots in the lineup which even when going back through the lineup would leave Cargo often times with nobody on.
Yes they do if you aren’t doing your best to distribute them so that there are as many guys on base as possible when they happen.
I agree that CarGo strikes out a bit too much, but he’s also posted a career OBP of .351 in spite of last season’s .292 mark. That was the thing I was looking at, not really his ability to steal a base (although that certainly helps).
If CarGo doesn’t lead off then it will almost surely be whoever is starting in CF on a given day as that looks like a Stubbs / Blackmon platoon at this point.
Ya I looked deeper at numbers a little bit earlier… Stubbs vs LHP would be a great leadoff and Morneau vs RHP would be great
Even Blackmon vs RHP would be just fine. .347 OBP vs. righties last year with above average speed (though I think that’s an overrated aspect of a leadoff hitter).
Stubbs is a nice option against lefty starters as well, but he’s virtually guaranteed to see some (probably a fairly significant amount actually) of regression after his .404 BABIP last season. Right on left it was even higher at .444. Both of those are about 70 points higher than his career BABIP numbers, so I’d guess about a 50 point drop this season when you factor in the BABIP boon that hitters typically get from Coors Field.
My lineup guess is:
Blackmon/Stubbs – CF
Arenado – 3B
CarGo – RF
Tulo – SS
Morneau – 1B
Dickerson – LF
Hundley / McHenry – C
Lemahieu – 2B
I still see them trading Roaario at some point prior to Opening Day.
Fucking juiced balls
Giants fan?
No one else is concerned about Butler’s terrible k rates?
Anyone who has seen his changeup is not concerned about his K rates going forward.
Personally I watch the Rockies for the mullet.
The Rockies certainly have a strong lineup, they have a shot to be above average offensively at every position but 2B. Pitching though is what will likely be their downfall. As it is right now, their rotation consists of:
Jorge de la Rosa entering his age 34 season; Jhoulys Chacin coming off a significant shoulder injury; Jordan Lyles, who was a lot like the 5 ERA pitcher he was in Houston after his strong April; Tyler Matzek, future looks bright but with only 117 Major League innings he’s hardly a sure thing; Jon Gray/Eddie Butler/Tyler Anderson, all strong prospects who probably aren’t ready yet; Christian Bergman/Yohan Flande/Christian Friedrich/Jair Jurrjens/other assorted AAAA pitchers taken off the scrap heap.
Unless every little thing falls right, that rotation isn’t anywhere near strong enough to contend.
Yep. When you’re pining for Ubaldo to come back, you know you’re not in good shape.
This was a 60 win who played in the worst division in major and they got to 60 wins by beating up on the equally terrible Padres and dbacks.
Cargo was horrible even when he was not injured last year and multiple injures can derail a career. We here every year that if tulo stayed healthy the Rockies might be mediocre. I have early May as the date tulo will hit the dl
This is probably the worst staff in the major. I think the Rockies are a long way from 75 win
lol seriously? The Rockies have a top 5 offensive lineup and suffered majorly from injuries last season. The only team more effected by injuries was the Rangers. The Rockies had 13 different starting pitchers by the all star break only one of which was replaced due to performance instead of injuries.
Yes Cargo was horrible when not injured but lets see anyone hit when they have a tentacled mass tumor in their finger http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11063548/carlos-gonzalez-colorado-rockies-tumor-removed-finger
Let’s call it what it is. Colorado had a to 5 offense because of Coors. Colorado’s away hitting is actually bottom 10 in the league. The pitching will easily be bottom 5 if not bottom 1
The Rockies were 5th in the NL in wRC+ last year, so they were legitimately above average offensively.
There away woba suggests it is a bottom 10 offense. And the pitching is bottom 10 home or away. Having atop offense because of altitude does not matter much when the team has no pitching and is horrible away
wOBA is not adjusted for park. Playing half your away games in LA/SF/SD and playing none in Coors will hurt your wOBA. wRC+ is parkadjusted. Use that.
The Rockies are a perfect example where FIP- is not useful. FIP- uses runs park factors for a FIP-based statistic. The Rockies have an extreme runs park factor and a much less extreme FIP park factor.
Tyler Matzek is not a good pitcher.
Just 117 innings into his Major League career it’s too early to say at this point whether he’s good or not, but he certainly looked good last year, especially the last month and a half of the season.
The general rule of thumb for a Rockies pitcher is to knock off about half a run to get his ERA in a neutral environment, so a 3.55ish ERA with peripherals to back it up is very good for a rookie starter.
Hot Take Alert.
Each team gets to use their own humidors.