The Royals Have Sunk to the Bottom

The A’s have spent most of this season as the laughingstocks of the majors. Stripped of their most talented players as ownership focused on sneaking out of Oakland, they carried a .207 winning percentage into June, putting them on pace to beat the 1962 Mets’ modern-day record of 120 losses. With their recent seven-game winning streak — remarkably timed to coincide with the Nevada state senate debating and finally approving a bill to build a stadium on the Las Vegas strip, all but sealing their fate in Oakland — they’ve edged above what we might call the Throneberry Line. All the while, the Royals, losers of nine straight and 12 out of their last 13, have actually slipped below them in terms of winning percentage, .265 (18–50) to .267 (19–52).

This actually isn’t the first time the Royals have had a worse record than the A’s this year; Oakland won its first and fourth games of the season, whereas Kansas City lost its first and started 1–6. It took until April 8 for the Royals (3–6) to move ahead of the A’s (2–6). Since then, the two teams have spent a few days with the same record and winning percentage — on April 21 (4–16, .200), April 24 (5–18, .217) and May 6 (8–26, .235) — but the Royals had never been worse than the A’s until this week:

Where the plight of the A’s has captured national attention, that of the Royals has largely evaded it. That’s largely because the team’s ownership isn’t in the process of trying to relocate the franchise, which isn’t to say it doesn’t want a new stadium. But entering Friday, Kansas City was in a virtual tie for the sixth-worst winning percentage of any team since 1901 and is playing at a pace that would produce a 43–119 record, which would tie the 2003 Tigers for the second-highest total of losses in a season, behind only the 1962 Mets’ 120. Even if the Royals can’t catch the Mets, they’ll have to play much better ball to avoid surpassing the franchise record of 106 losses, set in 2005.

Though they lost 97 games last year and haven’t posted even a .500 record since 2016, the Royals weren’t supposed to be this bad, even while running the majors’ sixth-lowest payroll ($92 million) via a roster that currently contains more homegrown players (14 out of 26) than all but one team (Houston, with 16). Certainly, the hope was that by turning the page on the Dayton Moore/Mike Matheny tandem via new general manager JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro, they’d show signs of improvement — particularly on the pitching side, where they’ve been haunted by developmental failures — and get their nucleus of young players to progress.

Indeed, this is a comparatively young squad. Weighted by plate appearances, the Royals have the youngest hitters in the majors, with an average age of 26.7 years, 0.2 younger than the Guardians and Rays. And while they have just one rookie playing regularly (Maikel Garcia), four of their players placed on our Top 100 Prospects list in 2022: shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (no. 2), right fielder/catcher MJ Melendez (no. 21), outfielder/first baseman Nick Pratto (no. 47), and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (no. 111); Garcia made the midseason update list at no. 66.

There’s an argument to be made that the Royals are actually not that bad, at least based on their Pythagorean and BaseRuns records:

Their run differential is just over half that of the A’s, they’re the better team by almost 100 points in terms of Pythagenpat winning percentage (based on runs scored and runs allowed), and they’re over 100 points better in terms of BaseRuns projected runs scored and allowed. That they’re five wins short of their projected total via Pythagenpat and nine short via BaseRuns doesn’t exactly say great things about them, though it does suggest that some positive regression might help them draw closer their projected record.

Very little is going right for the Royals on either side of the ball, though. Both their 3.75 runs scored per game and 5.32 runs allowed per game rank 28th in the majors, ahead of the A’s and one other team (Tigers in scoring, Rockies in run prevention). Their 83 wRC+ is last in the AL, and their .295 on-base percentage is second-to-last; their .233 batting average and .381 slugging percentage are among the AL’s half-dozen worst.

Individually, just four Royals regulars have hit for a wRC+ of 100 or better, but on Wednesday they learned that one of them would miss the remainder of the season, as Pasquantino, who landed on the injured list with right shoulder instability on Saturday, will undergo surgery to repair a torn labrum. The 25-year-old first baseman, one of the team’s most popular players, was hitting a modest .247/.324/.437 (106 wRC+) with nine homers, a notable step down from last year’s .295/.383/.450 (137 wRC+) showing in 72 games after debuting on June 28. He missed 14 games late last year with the same problem; an MRI taken on Monday showed that the tear in his labrum had become too substantial to manage without surgery.

“We made an educated decision [after the imaging] of what will be the best outcome not only for me but for the organization moving forward,” Pasquantino told reporters. “The way we look at it is this is the best way to ensure… having a long and successful career here.”

Pasquantino’s shoulder woes help to explain his offensive decline. His average exit velocity fell from 91.2 mph to 89.3 mph, with his barrel rate, hard hit rate, xBA, and xSLG all dropping as well. In his absence, the plan is for the 24-year-old Pratto to get the bulk of the first base duty. After a dismal showing as a rookie (.184/.271/.386, 82 wRC+) and a three-week stint at Triple-A Omaha in April, Pratto has been one of the bright spots with a team-high 118 wRC+ (.278/.362/.424), splitting his time between first base and the outfield corners. He hasn’t fully unleashed his 70-grade raw power, as his four homers, .146 ISO, and 106.8 mph maximum exit velocity illustrate, and his 33.3% strikeout rate is a significant concern, but the Royals have far bigger problems.

The two other regulars producing at a league-average clip or better are outfielder Edward Olivares (.257/.319/.446, 107 wRC+) and catcher Salvador Perez (.274/.310/.506, 116 wRC+). With the recent DFAs of Hunter Dozier (who refused assignment to Triple-A and was released) and Jackie Bradley Jr., the 33-year-old Perez is the lineup’s only regular over 27, and also the last man standing from the 2014–15 glory days. As for the rest of the lineup, which now generally features players in their ages 23–27 seasons, the Royals have turned over most of the spots relative to last year, not always with positive results:

The midseason trades of Benintendi, Merrifield, and Santana, as well as various promotions and demotions, make this a less clear-cut exercise than the table suggests. Each cell is based on which player has the most innings at the position, save for DH, which has the top player unassigned to any of the fielding positions; the ones not in the lineup round out the 16 most-used players in terms of plate appearances. Even illustrating this year’s lineup obscures more recent changes, such as Drew Waters taking over center field in late May in the absence of Isbel (who suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain in early May and began a rehab assignment on Tuesday) and the abysmal production of Bradley (.133/.188/.210, 4 wRC+ in 113 PA), but as you can see, there aren’t a lot of happy stories.

The other regular besides Perez whose job has carried over is Witt, who’s hitting just .244/.282/.425 (89 wRC+), down from last year’s .254/.294/.428 (99 wRC+). He’s chasing over 36% of pitches for the second year in a row and walking less than 5% of the time, though to be fair his 90.3 mph exit velocity, 12.5% barrel rate and 43.1% hard-hit rate all represent substantial improvements. He’s 24 points shy of his xBA, 97 shy of his xSLG and 54 shy of his xwOBA; in both of those last two categories, his gap is the majors’ seventh-largest. On the other side of the ball, his defense has improved markedly, frrm -7 to +5 in terms of RAA and -18 to -3 in DRS, though as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello noted, this is more about his not messing up easy plays than it is making great ones.

Strong defense, good contact, and good plate discipline are propping up Garcia’s WAR, but his 92 wRC+ and lack of power make him a less-than-ideal corner player. Melendez split the catching duties with Perez last year, but his defense was so shaky (-18 DRS, -15.7 framing runs in just 578.1 innings) that he’s been reduced to a third catcher while regularly playing right field. He has impressive contact numbers (93.6 mph average exit velo, 12% barrel rate, 52.4% hard-hit rate) but is also striking out 29.1% of the time and has had some bad luck; his .355 SLG is 77 points short of his xSLG.

If playing the kids isn’t yielding good results, at least you can see the rationale for exploring what they can do, though another veteran or two in the lineup wouldn’t have hurt. Where things are really breaking down for the Royals is the pitching. The rotation, which ranked just 26th in our preseason Positional Power Rankings, has the AL’s third-worst FIP (4.77) and strikeout rate (19.2%) and second-worst ERA (5.47) and strikeout-walk differential (10.8%). Zack Greinke may be a future Hall of Famer, a mad scientist, and an endless font of wisdom at age 39, but his 4.65 ERA and 4.36 FIP suggest he doesn’t have a whole lot left in the tank. At least his 18.5% strikeout rate is up six points from last year, giving him a reasonable shot at reaching 3,000 by the end of the season (he needs 64 more).

Greinke isn’t the problem, though. Jordan Lyles, who’s somehow 0–11 with a 6.89 ERA and 5.82 FIP, and Brady Singer, who has a 6.58 ERA and 4.63 FIP, are just getting crushed on a regular basis. The team signed the 32-year-old Lyles to a two-year, $17 million deal on the heels of a serviceable season with the Orioles (179 innings, 4.42 ERA, 4.40 FIP), but the quality of just about all of his pitches has eroded, according to Stuff+, with his overall score dropping from 88 to 84. His strikeout-walk differential has fallen from 11.9% to 9.1%, and his homer rate has soared from 1.31 per nine to 2.03. He’s given up five or more runs in eight of his 14 starts, four or more in 12 of 14, and has yet to record a single quality start. The Royals are 0–14 in his outings, yet one writer for the Kansas City Star suggested that he might be some contender’s idea of a trade target.

The 26-year-old Singer, meanwhile, is coming off a breakout season in which he posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 153.1 innings. He’s lost 1.4 mph off the average velocity of his sinker and 1.3 mph off his slider, and his overall Stuff+ score has declined from 97 to 89. Both his sinker and slider are getting hit harder, he’s been unable to develop a third pitch in which he has confidence (changeup or sweeper), and his strikeout rate is down while his walk and homer rates are up.

It doesn’t help that Brad Keller, Ryan Yarbrough, and Kris Bubic, all of whom were expected to help round out the rotation, are on the injured list, with Bubic done for the season due to Tommy John surgery. Keller has been out since mid-May due to a shoulder impingement but could be back by the end of the month; Yarbrough has been sidelined since suffering multiple nondisplaced fractures around his left eye after being hit by a batted ball on May 7 and won’t return until late July or August. With two slots in the rotation open behind the, uh, big three, lately the Royals have been rolling with rookie Daniel Lynch and a series of openers, which doesn’t work too well with a bullpen that owns a 4.85 ERA (second-to-last in the AL) and 4.10 FIP (ninth).

The relievers do at least miss bats; their 25.5% strikeout rate ranks sixth in the AL, but their 11.2% walk rate is the circuit’s second-highest. The standout is Aroldis Chapman, who’s trying to put his career back together after steering it into the ditch in New York. Not only did he pitch badly in 2022 (4.46 ERA, 4.57 FIP, -0.2 WAR), but he also lost his job as closer, missed three weeks due to a tattoo-induced infection in his leg, and skipped a mandatory workout before the Division Series. Signed to a one-year deal for $3.75 million plus incentives, he’s pitched mainly in the seventh or eighth inning in front of closer Scott Barlow and recovered his dominant form, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.69 FIP with a 41.8% strikeout rate, his first time above 40% in this many innings since 2018. So long as he remains healthy, he should fetch something useful at the trade deadline, though his spotty reputation — which includes his 2016 suspension for violating the league’s domestic violence policy — could limit the return at least somewhat.

Last year, the Royals had a stockpile of veterans to deal at the deadline, not that they brought back anything better than a handful of 40/40+ FV types. Picollo has largely eschewed that approach to this year’s roster and recently shot down any notion of dealing Perez. Lopez, Olivares, and Barlow could be on the move, though they won’t yield any game-changing prospects. Lacking a single Top 100 prospect this year (!), they don’t have much imminent help on the horizon, so at best these Royals could be shuffling the deck chairs for awhile as they try to find a seating arrangement that avoids ignominy. That’s better than the fate of the A’s, but it’s not pretty.