The Samsung Lions’ Rotation Has Turned the Tide

If you were one of the enthusiastic baseball fans who got an early start on tuning into ESPN’s first several broadcasts of the Korean Baseball Organization, there’s a good chance you’re already somewhat familiar with the Samsung Lions. The network carried their games four times in their first week of coverage, and the Lions spent a good amount of that time losing. A 4-0 loss to the NC Dinos on KBO Opening Day quickly turned into a three-game sweep, during which the Lions were outscored 16-5. They bounced back with two series wins against the Kia Tigers and Kiwoom Heroes, but that was undone by a stretch of seven losses in eight games, which set the Lions’ record back to 5-12.

The sluggish start was an unwelcome one for an organization that went from winning four straight Korean Series championships from 2011-14 to missing the playoffs entirely in each of the last four seasons. With a 60-83-1 record in 2019, the Lions are coming off the second-worst season by win percentage in the history of the franchise. Fortunately for them, however, the last couple of weeks have seen them trending in a much better direction. They’ve won seven of their last 10 games, including two series victories against the Dinos and Twins — the top two teams in the KBO by record. And the difference in that turnaround has been the team’s starting rotation.

Through the Lions’ first 17 games, they allowed 106 runs, the second-highest total in the KBO. During their 7-3 run, they’ve allowed just 43 — the second-fewest in that time frame. That’s a significant improvement, and the team’s starters have been the driving force behind it. In fact, the rotation was already beginning to turn the corner two full weeks ago. Here’s a breakdown of the team’s starter and reliever splits from the first 13 games, compared to their last 14:

That ERA over the past couple weeks looked even better two days ago, before Lions lefty Jung-hyun Baek 백정현 turned in the teams’ worst start of the year, allowing 11 runs in four innings against the Twins. Prior to that game, Samsung’s rotation had turned in five shutout performances over their previous nine games.

Those feast-or-famine results have been a staple of the Lions’ season early on, even on a pitcher-by-pitcher basis. Take, for example, David Buchanan 뷰캐넌. In his season debut, he allowed five runs in six innings, but turned around and threw seven shutout frames in his second appearance. The start after that, he allowed a whopping 10 runs in five innings, as the Twins crushed three homers off of him. Then, in his fourth and fifth appearances of the season, he allowed a total of just one run in 14 combined innings.

The other examples aren’t quite as dramatic, but follow a similar theme. Tae-in Won 원태인 began the season in the bullpen but joined the rotation by the end of the first week, and has the best numbers of any pitcher on his team: A 2.45 ERA in 33 innings, with 29 hits and eight walks allowed against 21 strikeouts. In his first two starts of the season, he allowed a total of seven runs on 13 hits in just 10 combined innings. In his two most recent starts, he hasn’t allowed an earned run in 15 total innings, limiting opponents to nine hits and zero walks in that span. The third starter who has logged a significant number of frames for the Lions is Chae-heung Choi 최채흥, who in five starts has allowed one run or fewer three times, four runs once, and seven runs once.

That’s a ton of variance from start to start, but fortunately for the Lions, they’ve managed to get a couple weeks of all three throwing well at the same time. Those improved performances show up in the pitchers’ underlying data as well, even it isn’t quite as dominant as you may think.

Fewer balls in play would be ideal, but the dramatic slashing of home runs and walks is a huge step. And for Won and Choi, the pace they’ve set with their peripherals thus far bears a pretty close resemblance to their 2019 performances.

This year’s Lions rotation was always going to be tough to predict. Out of 10 KBO teams, the Lions finished seventh in ERA last year. The two foreign-born pitchers who made 15 starts for that team — Deck McGuire 맥과이어 and Justin Haley 헤일리 — each departed the team after disappointing seasons, and longtime rotation stalwart Sung-hwan Yun 윤성환 was entering his age-38 season. On the other side of spectrum was Won, who is 20 years old and entering just his second season of KBO action, and Choi, 25, coming off just two years of KBO experience. Buchanan, meanwhile, is in his first KBO season, following a stateside career that featured two seasons in the Philadelphia Phillies rotation from 2014-15, followed by three seasons of Nippon Professional Baseball experience in Japan from 2017-19.

That’s four arms with question marks entering 2020 — the team either didn’t know how much they were ready to contribute or how much they had left in the tank. For Yun, the results haven’t been encouraging — he threw just two innings in his only start of the season, and allowed six runs on eight hits and three walks. The others, however, have overcome their lack of experience to become the biggest bright spots on the staff.

That doesn’t leave the Lions without questions, though. Ben Lively 라이블리, another former Phillies pitcher with the team, was injured just one batter into his start against Doosan on May 22, and is expected to miss a few more weeks. Paek, the team’s leader in innings in 2019, has also battled injuries early this year, and has gotten pounded the two times when he did take the mound (12 runs, 14 hits, five homers in 10 innings).

In their absence, the Lions have given the ball to Yun Dong Heo 허윤동, who’s done well in two starts (10 innings, three runs allowed), but is also just 18, and probably can’t be relied upon to actually carry a significant load over the course of the full season. Similarly, Dae-woo Kim김대우 has also gotten along fine in two starts for the Lions, but he’s a 31-year-old who’s primarily been a reliever throughout his KBO career.

It may take some time for the Lions’ rotation to get sorted out completely, and it’s hard to know what bumps in the road may come for Won and Choi as they continue to develop. But the last couple of weeks just might be a glimpse at something the Lions previously lacked — a strong core at the top of their rotation. And with the offense average or below in most categories — sixth in scoring, seventh in homers, seventh in OPS — being able to shut opposing lineups down a few times a week is going to be crucial to the Lions getting back into a postseason they dominated not long ago.