The State of the Third Base Market
There has been a lot of movement on the third base market already this offseason, with the latest being Boston’s addition of Adrian Beltre. Dave will have more on that later, but now I’d like to focus on the depleted state of the third base market. So far, we’ve seen the following moves.
Placido Polanco to Philadelphia from Detroit, 3/18
Chone Figgins to Seattle from Los Angeles (A), 4/36
Pedro Feliz to Houston from Philadelphia, 1/4.5
Garrett Atkins from Colorado to Baltimore, 1/4.5
Adrian Beltre from Seattle to Boston, 1/9 with pl. option for 5M
Mark DeRosa from St. Louis to San Francisco, 2/12
And some other possibilities who aren’t strictly third basemen:
Craig Counsell re-signed with Milwaukee 1/2.1
Troy Glaus from St. Louis to Atlanta 1/2
That’s quite a bit of movement, and we’re not even a week into the new year. With Beltre off the board, arguably all of the above-average options at third base are gone. I would argue that Joe Crede is also above average, but his injury issues and light bat make him an asset that isn’t terribly sought after. After Crede, Robb Quinlan is the youngest FA 3B at age 33, and he’s been under replacement level for three straight years. Melvin Mora is the only one who received a type B rating from Elias, and he’s 38, although he has averaged only slightly under 2.0 WAR per season since 2007.
We may see some team have to resort to minor league options or move players around going into 2010. Are the Marlins satisfied with Emilio Bonifacio and Wes Helms? Who will the Twins go to, if not Joe Crede? Does Nick Punto move to 3B? Do the Orioles consider Atkins and Ty Wigginton good enough? Are the Angels willing to hand the reins over to Brandon Wood as a full time starter? For the Cardinals, will it be David Freese? Somebody will have to get creative. Perhaps a team will move Miguel Tejada to the hot corner?
Here we are seeing multiple teams with clear playoff aspirations with major question marks remaining at third base. We will learn a great deal about their respective GMs by how they respond in this nearly completely depleted market.
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This raises an interesting question. Given Boston’s clear need to move Lowell between now and Opening Day, does this lack of viable options on the market possibly make him more attractive to other teams? Come spring training if he looks healthy and whatever makeshift or ‘creative options’ the teams in question above have tried don’t seem to be working out, does Lowell up end having more value than he did a few weeks ago when the Sox had to agree to pay 9 million to be rid of him?
I say maybe a little bit. Not sure how long the Red Sox can wait, though, since someone is going to want to start practicing Lowell at 1B. There’s no way a team trades for Lowell to play 3rd base (except maybe Dayton Moore).
I’m just stunned that the Red Sox got Beltre for so little cash. Beltre must have had a FA market reality check.
I would put Tejada primarily in the third base market. The Astros had decided that Tejada would be moved to third base this season–if he had re-signed. Tejada has stated several times that he will play third base, if necessary. The Astros signed Feliz after finding that Tejada would insist on a multi-year contract. I think most other teams view him either as a third baseman or a super-utility player in the DeRosa mode. Personally, I would rank Tejada as the best remaining third baseman.
I think moving Felipe Lopez to third base would be a good move for a team which continues to have a third base vacancy.
Felipe Lopez has shown some value over the years (WAR 1.46 in eight yrs) but his defense is questionable. In a little over half a season worth of innings at 3B he’s got a F% of .967 with a UZR .42 and a UZR150 at -9.38. I like Flip and wouldn’t mind him as a utility guy but I don’t want him to be the everyday starter at the hot corner. By the way, I’m a Cardinals fan and we’re starting a rookie in David Freese.
check your stats.
according to this site’s stats, lopez has a career 6.0 UZR/150 at third base in a pretty SSS, but his career UZR/150 at 2b is 2.6 over an adequate 2400 innings. it seems like a decent guess, based on the similarity of 2b and 3b defense and regressing his SSS 3b stats to the mean, that he’d be a roughly average 3b.
Nate, you could be right, but the Red Sox have limited leverage since they signed Beltre and already almost traded Lowell to the Rangers, so I don’t see smart GMs giving the Red Sox any more than the Rangers were going to, and probably less.
Straight contract dump to a team with a few mil thrown in, possibly?
That deal seemed awfully generous to me. That, and having 1B/3B/DH locked in, certainly limits the Red Sox bargaining power.
To be fair, it’s not like the Red Sox HAVE to unload Lowell before the season. If the Red Sox don’t find a suitor, they could…
actually nvm, that would be quite a corner IF logjam they’d have going.
They could keep him as a bench bat, but it’s pretty much common knowledge that they want to rid themselves of him.
Considering how bad David Ortiz was at DH last year (adjust for park, Ortiz was barely replacement level), keeping Lowell around to share DH duties would be smart (Lowell outperformed Papi with the bat last year), especially considering the Sox’ position on the win curve and how much money the Sox would have to eat to move Lowell.
Ortiz was terrific from early June onward, demonstrating that he’s experienced no real loss of skills. He does have a much higher risk of another long horrendous slump than he did when he was younger, but he is a very good candidate for a bounceback season. There’s no planet on which Mike Lowell hits RHP anywhere nearly as well.
And against LHP, they’ll usually be platooning Varitek with Papi (with Martinez at DH). There’s really no PT for Lowell at all unless someone gets hurt.
“Terrific” is so much of a misnomer I’m not even sure how to respond. Ortiz was better from June onward, but by no means was he his former self. From June onward, he had a 355 OBP and a 540 SLG (correct me if I’m wrong). While that’s good for everyone else, that’s not so good for Ortiz. However, he continually improve over the year. I’m not sure if that was really a trend though, since he went from a 409 OBP in June to 306 in July and 330 in August. I don’t think he’s a clear bounceback candidate. I’m pretty sure he’s just going to get worse from here out. He has the Cecil/Prince/Mo Vaughn body type that is going to get absolutely crushed by age, he had a poor season with a few bright months but more dark ones, and isn’t even guaranteed full playing time since Lowell was better last year.
I can tell you that the Marlins are probably happy with Bonifacio/Helms, though I think it’s obvious they shouldn’t be. Here’s hoping they go for someone like Crede on the cheap, especially given the depletion of the market for 3B relative to the players still available.
As for the Twins, they have Danny Valencia waiting in the wings and has been touted by many within the organization as the Twins future third baseman. If I had to guess, they will take a look at Crede in the first few weeks of spring training and sign him to another incentive-laden deal. The first sign of back problems, they pull Valencia up and see what the kid can do. Punto starts at 2nd base with Brendan Harris the utility guy off the bench.
I cannot believe StL wasn’t more involved after losing Glaus, Wallace, Thurston, and DeRosa. Maybe there’s a good reason for that …
Freese seems to be as good of a hitter as Wallace. People seem to be enamored with Wallace, but StL doesn’t seem to be (they did not call him up when Glaus went down long-term in ’09).
It seems StL is going to go with Freese at 3B, which I guess I can understand given that he has likely “earned” his shot. Maybe that’s why StL didn’t go after a 3B.
My concern is that this now puts StL in a (possible) desperate situation to sign Holliday (Glaus, DeRosa, Holliday, gone from the 09 team), and that could lead to BOTH [1] overpaying in annual dollars, and [2] signing for more years than they should.
At this point, I don’t know that I would offer Holliday a MEGA contract, given the losses/inactivity in other areas. The Cards could platoon at 2B, 3B, and LF.
I just don’t want to sign Holliday for ridiculous money, and then risk NOT being able to sign Pujols. If wew’re going to overpay someone by 5M/y and for 2-3 more years than we should, let’s overpay Albert. He’s earned it.
Enough ramblin’, back to work.
Or ending up with so much money tied into two players that they can’t put a team around the players.
Even if the players are freaking awesome, even beyond awesome in Pujols’ case, having tons of money tied in two players isn’t necessarily the smartest idea.
Albert Pujols can carry a team, but there’s still only so much he can do. The Cards still need to put 23 players around Pujols and Holliday, and the farm isn’t really awash with loads of young talent. Guys like Wainwright, Rasmus, Ryan, Yadi, etc. will get expensive down the road, and that must be kept in mind.
I am slowly, but consistently, moving further away from the “Sign Matt Holliday Camp”.
We were all happy as heck for Holliday upon his arrival in StL, and he played great until the playoffs. One moment REALLY sticks out in my mind, and it’s NOT the fly ball off the testicles that cost StL the playoff game …. it’s the AB in the 1st inning of Game 1 where Holliday watched three straight strikes over the plate, after Wolf just IBB’d Pujols to load the bases FOR Holliday. He seemed to want to avoid the responsibility (as we coaches say).
But, I move past that moment, trying not to read too much into one at bat (it was the mentality that bothered me, not the K).
But, when I look at the situation I don;t want StL to have TWO mammoth contracts for LONG years to guys moving towards their mid and upper 30s.
You pay Pujols so he never wears anothere unfirom (and for what he’s done for the franchise since his arrival).
I would LOVE for StL to obtain David DeJesus (or similar type player) to man LF for GOOD value.
CircleChange…looks like your nightmares came true. 7yr/$120M. Overpay? Sign for more years than they should?
There’s still a pretty good cost-controlled 3B on the trade market in Kevin Kouzmanoff. I don’t think Jed Hoyer relishes the idea of playing Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks in the OF corners of Petco.
Three more trade possibilities:
— Andy Marte. I thought the Indians would trade Jhonny Peralta to a club that needs a SS, but that hasn’t happened yet.
— Willie Aybar. Numbers suggest he could start for a lot of clubs, and though he has value on the Rays bench, he’d have more value as someone’s starter, which makes a trade possible.
— Jack Hannahan. Not sure if the GMs in need of a 3B realize that his glove is so good that he could be an acceptable starter. In terms of value he’s basically the same player as Pedro Feliz was three years ago, before his glove went from great to good.
Yes, yes and yes! I’d love to see Kouzmanoff in a more hitter friendly environment. And Aybar deserves to start somewhere as well. The Rays have done a good job hoarding infield talent. I just don’t think the teams that need 3B’s have the wherewithall to get anything done. Which is why they still need em’. But do we really believe the Marlins are going with those 2 at 3rd? They probably can’t move Uggla till he gets a number attached to him. But then I expect resolution.
According to BJ’s method of predicting whether a player will have as good of a season the following year, Kouzmanoff is more likely to , rather than not, have another good year in 2010.
“– Jack Hannahan. Not sure if the GMs in need of a 3B realize that his glove is so good that he could be an acceptable starter. In terms of value he’s basically the same player as Pedro Feliz was three years ago, before his glove went from great to good.”
Uggggghhhhhhhh why didn’t the A’s keep this guy. Then at least they would have someone who is better than replacement level at 3B.
What no mention of or love for Mark Teahan?
I was surprised with the Beltre deal in Boston. Word is he turned down longer term contracts. Any thoughts on where those offers were from? Seems like Baltimore could have moved Atkins to 1B and signed Beltre. Of course, they’ve got Josh Bell waiting in the wings and Ty Wigginton to find PT for too. Think Boston (or Baltimore for that matter) would trade in-division and deal Lowell to the O’s for him to play 1B? Can he even play 1B? Would he want to? I expect Boston doesn’t have much leverage there any more and they’ll probably have to get rid of him and pay a good portion of his salary along the way.
Don’t forget how good Crede was, especially defensively, before his injury. Check his defensive stats with baseball prospectus; before his back went his defense was off the charts. Afterwards, it’s been getting progressively better, climbing higher each year. He’s slowly but steadily rebounding from his ’06 back problems.
His bat has been a liability of late, but it will likely also rebound to average or slightly-below-average levels. He should be up to .250 with some power. OPS in the .700-.800 range. Nothing special, but not a weak spot either.
Any team without a solid starter at 3rd base would be lucky to have him, and should be willing to throw a lot more money than people might expect to get him (not that that’s saying much).