The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats
Over the last couple years, the author has published a periodic statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.
What follows represents the most current such report for the 2017 college campaign.
As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.
To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.
*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.
Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in five different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The five conferences I’ve chosen here represent those most typically responsible for producing good major-league players.
*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.
There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are care of Baseball Cube and as current as Baseball Cube says they should be.
ACC
Top Batter
Adam Haseley, Jr, Virginia (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Adam Haseley, Jr, Virginia (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Adam Haseley, Jr, Virginia (Jr)
Top Pitcher
Tyler Holton, LHP, Florida State (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville (Jr)
Top Starter
Tyler Holton, LHP, Florida State (So)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Haseley | Virginia | Jr | CF | 79 | 7.6% | .415 | .365 | 11.9% | .231 | .329 | 142 |
| Sam Fragale | Virginia Tech | RS-Jr | 1B | 88 | 20.5% | .453 | .415 | 19.3% | .250 | .333 | 140 |
| Joey Bart | Georgia Tech | So | C | 71 | 16.9% | .453 | .409 | 17.3% | .236 | .331 | 137 |
| Drew Ellis | Louisville | Jr | 3B/1B | 74 | 6.8% | .352 | .340 | 11.6% | .208 | .327 | 133 |
| Ryan Tufts | Virginia Tech | Sr | SS | 99 | 7.1% | .284 | .333 | 11.1% | .197 | .327 | 129 |
| Gavin Sheets | Wake Forest | Jr | 1B | 58 | 6.9% | .360 | .279 | 12.4% | .200 | .324 | 128 |
| Brendan McKay | Louisville | Jr | 1B | 63 | 9.5% | .319 | .500 | 13.5% | .193 | .335 | 127 |
| Seth Beer | Clemson | So | COF | 82 | 9.8% | .327 | .209 | 13.1% | .205 | .318 | 126 |
| Stuart Fairchild | Wake Forest | Jr | CF | 62 | 12.9% | .340 | .385 | 15.3% | .198 | .329 | 124 |
| Wade Bailey | Georgia Tech | Jr | 2B | 75 | 5.3% | .197 | .435 | 10.8% | .162 | .333 | 119 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Holton | Florida St. | So | LHP | 25.0 | 91 | 44.1% | 6.6% | 34.9% | 8.7% | 66 |
| Brendan McKay | Louisville | Jr | LHP | 18.0 | 68 | 42.7% | 7.4% | 32.7% | 9.1% | 73 |
| J.B. Bukauskas | No. Carolina | Jr | RHP | 26.0 | 98 | 37.6% | 5.1% | 31.5% | 8.0% | 73 |
| Andrew Karp | Florida St. | RS-So | RHP | 25.2 | 95 | 35.8% | 3.2% | 30.3% | 7.4% | 74 |
| Graeme Stinson | Duke | Fr | LHP | 5.0 | 22 | 60.3% | 4.6% | 31.7% | 9.2% | 75 |
| Ryley Gilliam | Clemson | So | RHP | 11.0 | 42 | 42.5% | 9.4% | 30.3% | 9.7% | 80 |
| Tyler Jackson | Clemson | Grad! | RHP | 22.1 | 94 | 31.0% | 3.2% | 27.6% | 7.4% | 82 |
| Will Zirzow | Florida St. | RS-Jr | RHP | 11.1 | 41 | 41.7% | 9.8% | 29.8% | 9.8% | 82 |
| Riley Wilson | Virginia | Jr | LHP | 4.1 | 18 | 55.6% | 11.1% | 29.6% | 9.9% | 83 |
| R.J. Freure | Pittsburgh | Fr | RHP | 11.2 | 43 | 37.3% | 4.7% | 28.4% | 8.7% | 83 |
Notes
During Eric Longenhagen’s most recent appearance on FanGraphs Audio, I asked him what sort of value he extracted from scouting a draft-eligible college pitcher who, despite excellent numbers, exhibits limited velocity and projection. The question pertained specifically to Long Beach State right-hander Darren McCaughan, who has recorded one of the better pitching lines in the Big West, but I was also thinking of Florida State left-hander Tyler Holton. As a sophomore, Holton obviously isn’t eligible for the draft this year. But the question will remain relevant until next spring if Holton continues both to (a) dominate opposing batters and also (b) top out in the high 80s (while maybe touching 90 on occasion).
Longenhagen’s response is nuanced. In summary, though, he feels there’s value in it — especially in an era when pitchers in the Yankees system (for example) appear to be adding velocity almost uniformly.
Top Batter
Richard Cunningham, CF, Baylor (RS-So)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Richard Cunningham, CF, Baylor (RS-So)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Richard Cunningham, CF, Baylor (RS-So)
Top Pitcher
Jake Irvin, RHP, Oklahoma (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Stephen Villines, RHP, Kansas (Sr)
Top Starter
Jake Irvin, RHP, Oklahoma (So)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Cunningham | Baylor | RS-So | CF | 52 | 15.4% | .390 | .424 | 16.7% | .197 | .340 | 125 |
| Quin Walbergh | Oklahoma | RS-So | COF | 25 | 8.0% | .500 | .278 | 14.9% | .184 | .334 | 121 |
| Kacy Clemens | Texas | Sr | 1B | 79 | 16.5% | .286 | .404 | 17.0% | .185 | .340 | 120 |
| Jake Scudder | Kansas St. | Sr | 1B | 48 | 10.4% | .317 | .303 | 14.5% | .178 | .334 | 119 |
| Hunter Hargrove | Texas Tech | Sr | 1B | 80 | 11.3% | .243 | .371 | 14.1% | .172 | .338 | 119 |
| Steele Walker | Oklahoma | So | OF | 60 | 13.3% | .268 | .478 | 15.6% | .172 | .343 | 118 |
| Garrett Benge | Oklahoma St. | Jr | 3B | 81 | 11.1% | .234 | .377 | 14.0% | .169 | .339 | 118 |
| Quintin Crandall | Kansas St. | RS-Sr | 3B | 48 | 10.4% | .286 | .286 | 14.5% | .171 | .334 | 116 |
| Luken Baker | TCU | So | 1B | 70 | 22.9% | .294 | .406 | 20.5% | .184 | .340 | 115 |
| Garrett McCain | Oklahoma St. | Jr | OF | 83 | 14.5% | .209 | .426 | 15.9% | .162 | .342 | 114 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | Oklahoma | So | RHP | 20.0 | 71 | 43.7% | 4.2% | 33.5% | 7.8% | 69 |
| Sean Wymer | TCU | So | RHP | 13.1 | 47 | 45.0% | 6.4% | 31.9% | 8.7% | 76 |
| Connor Berry | Oklahoma | So | RHP | 7.1 | 28 | 46.8% | 0.0% | 29.9% | 8.0% | 79 |
| Stephen Villines | Kansas | Sr | RHP | 15.1 | 68 | 33.9% | 2.9% | 28.5% | 7.5% | 81 |
| Brady Basso | Oklahoma St. | Fr | LHP | 6.1 | 27 | 44.8% | 7.5% | 29.2% | 9.0% | 84 |
| Ryan Shetter | Texas Tech | So | RHP | 23.1 | 91 | 29.8% | 3.3% | 26.9% | 7.2% | 85 |
| Jake Cowan | Oklahoma St. | Jr | RHP | 12.1 | 46 | 37.3% | 8.8% | 28.8% | 9.2% | 85 |
| Kyle Hill | Baylor | So | RHP | 15.2 | 59 | 34.1% | 6.8% | 28.2% | 8.7% | 85 |
| Devon Perez | Oklahoma | Jr | RHP | 9.2 | 37 | 35.2% | 2.7% | 27.4% | 8.1% | 86 |
| Troy Montemayor | Baylor | Jr | RHP | 7.1 | 30 | 37.0% | 3.4% | 27.3% | 8.4% | 87 |
Notes
Baylor center fielder Richard Cunningham is absent from the most of notable draft-prospect lists. As a 21-year-old, though, he’s eligible for selection. Based on his play thus far, he would appear to merit some consideration. His combination of contact, power, and defensive utility is unrivaled through the first four weeks of the college season among his Big 12 peers. The author of only a single home run, Cunningham has also recorded seven doubles and three triples over his first 52 plate appearances — all while playing center field exclusively or something like exclusively.
Here’s a recent outfield assist for Cunningham against Ole Miss:
And a triple from that same game:
Top Batter
Keston Hiura, DH, UC Irvine (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Keston Hiura, DH, UC Irvine (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Josh Rojas, 3B, Hawaii (Sr)
Top Pitcher
Connor Riley, RHP, Long Beach State (Fr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Brendan Hornung, RHP, Hawaii (Sr)
Top Starter
Brendan Hornung, RHP, Hawaii (Sr)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keston Hiura | UC Irvine | Jr | DH | 71 | 19.7% | .481 | .541 | 19.1% | .218 | .327 | 145 |
| Kevin Riley | CS-Northridge | RS-Jr | 1B | 72 | 16.7% | .281 | .300 | 17.5% | .161 | .312 | 120 |
| Josh Rojas | Hawaii | Sr | 3B | 66 | 3.0% | .184 | .298 | 10.3% | .131 | .312 | 119 |
| Ryan Anderson | UC Davis | So | COF | 64 | 10.9% | .203 | .388 | 14.5% | .136 | .317 | 117 |
| Alvaro Rubalcaba | C-S Northridge | RS-Jr | 2B | 55 | 10.9% | .222 | .361 | 14.8% | .138 | .315 | 116 |
| Albee Weiss | C-S Northridge | Jr | C | 70 | 17.1% | .238 | .319 | 17.7% | .148 | .313 | 115 |
| Mark Contreras | UC Riverside | Sr | CF | 36 | 11.1% | .233 | .480 | 15.7% | .132 | .318 | 114 |
| Ramsey Romano | Long Beach St. | Jr | 3B | 64 | 7.8% | .140 | .385 | 12.9% | .119 | .317 | 113 |
| Mikey Duarte | UC Irvine | RS-Sr | SS | 58 | 10.3% | .160 | .386 | 14.4% | .124 | .316 | 112 |
| Alex Fitchett | Hawaii | RS-Sr | COF | 53 | 24.5% | .262 | .357 | 21.3% | .146 | .315 | 110 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Riley | Long Beach St. | Fr | RHP | 8.0 | 36 | 49.4% | 13.7% | 29.2% | 9.5% | 75 |
| Brendan Hornung | Hawaii | Sr | RHP | 30.0 | 117 | 29.1% | 1.7% | 25.2% | 5.8% | 76 |
| Ryan Lillie | UC Riverside | Jr | RHP | 14.0 | 59 | 30.5% | 5.1% | 24.1% | 7.7% | 83 |
| Blake Workman | C-S Fullerton | Fr | RHP | 15.0 | 59 | 28.8% | 3.4% | 23.4% | 7.2% | 84 |
| Conner O’Neil | C-S Northridge | Sr | RHP | 14.1 | 59 | 32.0% | 10.1% | 24.8% | 8.9% | 85 |
| Alex Fagalde | UC Riverside | Sr | RHP | 24.0 | 90 | 25.7% | 3.4% | 22.6% | 6.8% | 85 |
| Darren McCaughan | Long Beach St. | Jr | RHP | 25.1 | 103 | 25.1% | 4.8% | 22.6% | 7.1% | 86 |
| Andre Pallante | UC Irvine | Fr | RHP | 12.2 | 63 | 33.1% | 15.7% | 25.6% | 10.5% | 87 |
| Casey Ryan | Hawaii | Sr | RHP | 2.1 | 9 | 55.1% | 0.0% | 22.9% | 8.1% | 88 |
| Chris Rivera | Long Beach St. | So | RHP | 8.1 | 42 | 33.7% | 14.4% | 24.3% | 9.7% | 88 |
Notes
UC Irvine’s Keston Hiura was projected by D1 Baseball this preseason as most likely to win the Big West’s Player of the Year Award. Hiura was also the top-ranked player from the Big West in Baseball America’s preseason top-100 college-prospects list. He has recorded an isolated-figure mark over the season’s first four weeks that’s nearly double the second-best such figure in the conference. One concern at the moment is health: Hiura, who has played outfield and second base in recent years, has been relegated to DH by an arm injury.
Note: Pac-12 stats are unavailable in full this week, strangely.
Top Batter
Brent Rooker, COF, Mississippi State (RS-Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Brent Rooker, COF, Mississippi State (RS-Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Jeff Moberg, 2B, Tennessee (RS-Sr)
Top Pitcher
T.J. Sikkema, LHP, Missouri (Fr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Trevor Stephan, RHP, Arkansas (Jr)
Top Starter
Will Ethridge, RHP, Mississippi (Fr)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Rooker | Miss. St. | RS-Jr | COF | 82 | 15.9% | .400 | .479 | 16.1% | .228 | .350 | 135 |
| Greg Deichman | LSU | Jr | COF | 74 | 16.2% | .397 | .340 | 16.3% | .222 | .340 | 129 |
| Jeff Moberg | Tennessee | RS-Sr | 2B | 62 | 16.1% | .382 | .500 | 16.3% | .209 | .349 | 127 |
| Grant Koch | Arkansas | So | C | 75 | 12.0% | .348 | .288 | 14.0% | .208 | .337 | 126 |
| Evan White | Kentucky | Jr | 1B | 41 | 12.2% | .433 | .435 | 14.7% | .202 | .343 | 125 |
| Braden Shewmake | Texas A&M | Fr | 2B | 86 | 9.3% | .244 | .444 | 12.2% | .179 | .348 | 121 |
| Logan Foster | Texas A&M | Fr | COF | 78 | 24.4% | .342 | .460 | 20.9% | .208 | .348 | 120 |
| Robbie Glendinning | Missouri | Jr | SS | 63 | 15.9% | .265 | .500 | 16.1% | .179 | .349 | 116 |
| Marcus Carson | Kentucky | Sr | CF | 88 | 9.1% | .194 | .413 | 12.1% | .163 | .345 | 114 |
| Jordan Rodgers | Tennessee | Sr | 3B | 56 | 7.1% | .216 | .378 | 12.0% | .164 | .342 | 114 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Sikkema | Missouri | Fr | LHP | 22.0 | 80 | 45.1% | 3.8% | 36.0% | 6.9% | 69 |
| Will Ethridge | Mississippi | Fr | RHP | 15.2 | 53 | 49.2% | 3.8% | 35.7% | 7.3% | 70 |
| Casey Mize | Auburn | So | RHP | 22.2 | 88 | 43.1% | 4.5% | 35.3% | 7.1% | 71 |
| Trevor Stephan | Arkansas | Jr | RHP | 24.0 | 90 | 35.7% | 7.8% | 31.2% | 8.2% | 84 |
| Alex Lange | LSU | Jr | RHP | 20.2 | 83 | 34.9% | 6.0% | 30.6% | 7.6% | 85 |
| Ryan Lee | Missouri | RS-Jr | RHP | 4.0 | 15 | 54.4% | 0.0% | 30.5% | 7.7% | 85 |
| Andrew Gist | Georgia | Sr | LHP | 16.1 | 62 | 33.7% | 3.2% | 29.4% | 7.0% | 86 |
| Cannon Chadwick | Arkansas | Sr | RHP | 12.1 | 49 | 34.4% | 2.0% | 29.2% | 7.0% | 87 |
| Tyler Johnson | So. Carolina | Jr | RHP | 6.2 | 28 | 42.8% | 7.1% | 30.4% | 8.2% | 87 |
| Wil Crowe | So. Carolina | Jr | RHP | 24.0 | 94 | 33.1% | 7.5% | 29.9% | 8.1% | 88 |
Notes
Between 2010 and -14, nearly three times as many good major-league pitching seasons were recorded by products of the SEC than the next-best conference. It follows, then, that the best draft-eligible pitchers in the SEC possess some likelihood of becoming the best major-league pitchers of the future. The conference currently features a number of pitchers who offer a combination of performance and physical tools. Arkansas right-hander Trevor Stephan sits at 89-93 mph, LSU’s Alex Lange at 91-94, South Carolina’s Wil Crowe at 92-94. All three are starters and all three appear among the conference’s top-10 pitchers here.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Richie Cunningham?