The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

What follows does not constitute the most rigorous of statistical analyses. Rather, it’s designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have considerably more enthusiasm for than actual knowledge of the collegiate game — a shorthand means, that is, towards detecting which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: KATOH+ for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and KATOH- (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each. Here are the types of player: top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. And here are the conferences: the Atlantic Coast (ACC), the Pacific 12 (Pac-12), and the Southeastern (SEC). As for why I’ve chosen those three conferences, it’s because they featured the most teams collectively included in D1 Baseball’s top-25 preseason rankings.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current as of Monday.

ACC
Top Batter
Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Sarkis Ohanian, RHP, Duke (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Sarkis Ohanian, RHP, Duke (Sr)

Top Starter
Mike Compton, RHP, Florida St. (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Will Craig	Wake Forest	So	1B	173	9.2%	.379	.395	11.5%	.252	.337	161
2	David Thompson	Miami	Jr	3B	172	8.1%	.324	.331	10.7%	.224	.329	149
3	Nate Mondou	Wake Forest	So	2B	181	12.7%	.293	.378	14.1%	.211	.335	142
4	Chris Shaw	Boston College	Jr	RF	139	15.8%	.347	.337	16.5%	.224	.329	141
5	Logan Ratledge	NC State	Sr	2B	163	11.7%	.248	.396	13.4%	.185	.337	133
6	DJ Stewart	Florida St.	Jr	LF	172	18.0%	.289	.341	18.0%	.207	.330	132
7	Matt Thaiss	Virginia	So	C	157	7.0%	.227	.304	10.1%	.174	.325	129
8	Chris Okey	Clemson	So	C	161	16.8%	.266	.345	17.1%	.193	.331	129
9	Alex Perez	Virginia Tech	Sr	2B	176	11.4%	.212	.379	13.1%	.170	.335	127
10	Kel Johnson	Georgia Tech	Fr	RF	106	27.4%	.326	.492	24.0%	.202	.343	126

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Sarkis Ohanian	Duke	Sr	RHP	29.0	110	39.1%	2.7%	32.2%	7.0%	64
2	Brendan McKay	Louisville	Fr	LHP	47.0	173	36.4%	8.1%	32.1%	8.9%	69
3	Drew Harrington	Louisville	So	LHP	28.1	108	37.0%	7.4%	30.8%	8.8%	72
4	Kenny Koplove	Duke	Jr	RHP	16.1	73	41.1%	12.3%	31.4%	10.5%	75
5	Billy Strode	Florida St.	Sr	LHP	15.2	65	40.0%	10.8%	30.3%	10.0%	77
6	Matt Pidich	Pittsburgh	So	RHP	15.2	60	38.3%	8.3%	29.1%	9.4%	78
7	Jesse Adams	Boston College	Jr	LHP	33.0	137	32.8%	11.7%	28.9%	10.6%	82
8	Alec Bettinger	Virginia	So	RHP	32.2	136	30.9%	9.6%	27.6%	9.7%	83
9	Michael Mediavilla	Miami	Fr	LHP	18.1	66	34.8%	10.6%	27.9%	10.0%	83
10	Trent Thornton	UNC	Jr	RHP	41.0	163	32.5%	12.9%	29.1%	11.3%	83

Notes
In the first edition of this same exercise following the first week of collegiate games back at the end of February, Louisville sophomore left-hander Drew Harrington appeared second among all ACC pitchers, having recorded a 50% strikeout rate over just 4.1 innings. He’s proceeded to appear among the conferences’ top-five pitchers in every week since that point. Harrington’s teammate Brendan McKay has been excellent, but only five of his 12 appearances — i.e. less than half — have occurred in a starting capacity. The conference’s current top starter by the methodology used here is actually absent from the top-10 leaderboard. Florida State junior right-hander Mike Compton doesn’t possess particularly impressive arm speed, but has recorded just a 3.7% walk rate over five starts and 27.2 innings.

***

Pac-12
Top Batter
Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Starter
James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Scott Kingery	Arizona	Jr	2B	159	6.3%	.239	.469	9.0%	.175	.340	140
2	Lucas Erceg	California	So	3B	148	9.5%	.258	.330	11.4%	.181	.322	133
3	KJ Harrison	Oregon St.	Fr	1B/C	157	18.5%	.280	.408	17.8%	.194	.332	132
4	Chris Keck	UCLA	Sr	3B	144	10.4%	.240	.324	12.1%	.172	.321	128
5	Chris Paul	California	Sr	1B	137	15.3%	.259	.382	15.5%	.179	.328	128
6	Brett Cumberland	California	Fr	C	142	14.1%	.260	.325	14.7%	.181	.321	127
7	Bobby Dalbec	Arizona	So	3B	155	21.9%	.269	.400	20.3%	.188	.331	126
8	Bobby Stahel	USC	Jr	LF	152	9.2%	.180	.456	11.1%	.146	.337	125
9	Kevin Kramer	UCLA	Jr	SS	157	10.8%	.183	.405	12.3%	.148	.331	122
10	Gabe Clark	Oregon St.	Jr	DH	119	17.6%	.268	.254	17.1%	.178	.314	120

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Ryan Burr	Arizona St.	Jr	RHP	24.2	106	43.4%	11.3%	34.0%	9.9%	65
2	Garrett Cleavinger	Oregon	Jr	LHP	19.2	78	44.9%	12.8%	33.1%	10.2%	68
3	David Berg	UCLA	Jr	RHP	32.2	123	33.3%	2.4%	28.5%	6.3%	70
4	Grant Dyer	UCLA	So	RHP	30.0	110	35.5%	6.4%	29.4%	8.0%	72
5	James Kaprielian	UCLA	Jr	RHP	57.2	228	30.7%	7.5%	28.2%	8.1%	76
6	Griffin Canning	UCLA	Fr	RHP	49.1	187	27.3%	2.1%	25.3%	5.4%	76
7	Andrew Shaps	Arizona St.	Fr	LHP	3.0	14	64.3%	0.0%	27.3%	8.3%	79
8	Dylan Nelson	California	Sr	RHP	17.2	75	33.3%	8.0%	26.8%	8.7%	81
9	Andrew Moore	Oregon St.	Jr	RHP	68.0	252	24.6%	4.0%	23.6%	6.0%	82
10	Bernardo Flores	USC	So	LHP	26.2	112	29.5%	7.1%	25.8%	8.3%	82

Notes
Based on the leaderboards here, it would appear as though UCLA are particularly well prepared for the collegiate postseason. Even more than the major-league playoffs, the collegiate version — because there are fewer games — allow clubs to distribute an even higher percentage of innings in the direction of their best pitchers. UCLA, one finds, features four — two starters and two relievers — of the Pac-12’s top-six pitchers. Neither James Kaprielian (6.0 IP, 27 TBF, 6 K, 5 BB) nor Griffin Canning (5.0 IP, 20 TBF, 3 K, 0 BB) were dominant this weekend at USC; however, their strong work earlier in the season allows them to remain here.

***

SEC
Top Batter
Andrew Benintendi, CF, Arkansas (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Andrew Benintendi, CF, Arkansas (So)

Top Pitcher
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top Starter
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Andrew Benintendi	Arkansas	So	CF	160	12.5%	.383	.333	13.6%	.251	.333	151
2	Harrison Bader	Florida	Jr	LF	154	14.9%	.372	.348	15.4%	.243	.334	147
3	JJ Schwarz	Florida	Fr	DH/C	157	15.3%	.360	.291	15.7%	.239	.327	142
4	Kyle Martin	So. Carolina	Sr	1B	166	7.8%	.279	.370	10.2%	.203	.337	140
5	Alex Bregman	LSU	Jr	SS	179	4.5%	.270	.304	7.5%	.201	.329	140
6	Christin Stewart	Tennessee	Jr	LF	136	17.6%	.364	.324	17.4%	.233	.332	139
7	Dansby Swanson	Vanderbilt	Jr	SS	181	13.8%	.279	.393	14.5%	.206	.341	136
8	Jared Foster	LSU	Sr	COF/2B	132	15.2%	.305	.300	15.6%	.205	.329	130
9	Mikey White	Alabama	Jr	SS	156	19.2%	.271	.449	18.5%	.197	.347	129
10	Josh Tobias	Florida	Sr	3B	119	11.8%	.257	.427	13.4%	.182	.342	129

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Carson Fulmer	Vanderbilt	Jr	RHP	57.0	231	35.1%	10.0%	31.9%	9.8%	73
2	Andrew Lee	Tennessee	Jr	RHP	15.1	48	41.7%	4.2%	29.6%	8.3%	75
3	Scott Weathersby	Ole Miss	Sr	RHP	29.1	106	33.0%	5.7%	28.4%	8.0%	77
4	Bobby Poyner	Florida	Sr	LHP	35.1	129	27.9%	1.6%	25.6%	6.1%	80
5	Alden Cartwright	LSU	So	RHP	13.0	59	35.6%	5.1%	27.9%	8.4%	80
6	Robert Tyler	Georgia	So	RHP	14.0	60	36.7%	10.0%	28.4%	9.6%	81
7	Bret Marks	Tennessee	Sr	RHP	56.1	232	29.3%	8.2%	27.5%	8.8%	82
8	Mark Ecker	Texas A&M	So	RHP	15.1	59	35.6%	8.5%	27.9%	9.2%	82
9	Ben Bowden	Vanderbilt	So	LHP	22.1	87	33.3%	9.2%	28.0%	9.4%	82
10	Brady Bramlett	Ole Miss	So	RHP	50.2	209	27.8%	6.2%	26.2%	7.7%	82

Notes
Arkansas sophomore center fielder Andrew Benintendi appeared fourth among SEC hitters in last week’s edition of this same exercise; now he appears first. In Arkansas’ five games since last weekend, Benintendi recorded four home runs and just one strikeout. His 13 total home runs represent the highest such mark in the SEC now — as do both his raw and regressed isolated-power figures (.383 and .251, respectively). It’s a promising collection of skills Benintendi features, with a combination of contact, power, and defensive value.