The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats
On multiple occasions last year, the author published a statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.
In recent weeks, I’ve revisited for the 2016 college campaign. What follows represents the most current installment of a possibly infinite series.
As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.
To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.
*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.
Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The conferences I’ve chosen represent the five most typically responsible for producing good major-league players.
*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.
There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are courtesy Baseball Cube and are current through Wednesday’s games.
ACC
Top Batter
Seth Beer, COF, Clemson (Fr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Will Craig, DH, Wake Forest (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Chase Pinder, CF, Clemson (So)
Top Pitcher
Tyler Warmoth, RHP, Florida St. (R-Sr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Tyler Warmoth, RHP, Florida St. (R-Sr)
Top Starter
Zac Gallen, RHP, No. Carolina (Jr)
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
| Seth Beer | Clemson | Fr | COF | 99 | 8.1% | .513 | .361 | 11.3% | .272 | .343 | 161 |
| Will Craig | Wake Forest | Jr | DH | 76 | 10.5% | .544 | .439 | 13.2% | .259 | .347 | 155 |
| Chase Pinder | Clemson | So | CF | 114 | 12.3% | .326 | .357 | 13.8% | .211 | .342 | 134 |
| Colby Fitch | Louisville | So | C/DH | 51 | 7.8% | .419 | .514 | 12.6% | .200 | .349 | 133 |
| Corey Ray | Louisville | Jr | COF | 124 | 10.5% | .299 | .319 | 12.5% | .204 | .339 | 131 |
| Blake Tiberi | Louisville | So | 3B | 104 | 3.8% | .264 | .345 | 8.5% | .184 | .341 | 130 |
| Tyler Ramirez | No. Carolina | Jr | CF | 110 | 15.5% | .280 | .476 | 15.9% | .192 | .353 | 127 |
| Zack Collins | Miami | Jr | C | 99 | 13.1% | .292 | .408 | 14.5% | .192 | .346 | 127 |
| Alex Kowalczyk | Pitt | Sr | C/DH | 89 | 13.5% | .329 | .310 | 14.8% | .201 | .339 | 127 |
| Matt Thaiss | Virginia | Jr | C | 115 | 1.7% | .204 | .315 | 6.8% | .163 | .338 | 124 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
| Tyler Warmoth | Florida St. | R-Sr | RHP | 11.1 | 42 | 52.9% | 4.8% | 33.1% | 8.4% | 67 |
| Bryan Garcia | Miami | Jr | RHP | 15.2 | 62 | 43.8% | 9.7% | 31.8% | 9.4% | 73 |
| Zac Gallen | No. Carolina | Jr | RHP | 42.1 | 160 | 30.7% | 4.4% | 27.8% | 6.9% | 77 |
| Matthew Gorst | Georgia Tech | Jr | RHP | 14.1 | 52 | 38.1% | 3.8% | 28.5% | 8.0% | 78 |
| J.B. Bukauskas | No. Carolina | So | RHP | 33.1 | 141 | 34.7% | 10.6% | 30.3% | 9.9% | 78 |
| T.J. Zeuch | Pittsburgh | Jr | RHP | 13.0 | 49 | 38.6% | 4.1% | 28.5% | 8.1% | 78 |
| Wil Gilbert | NC State | Sr | LHP | 20.2 | 85 | 34.1% | 5.9% | 28.3% | 8.1% | 79 |
| Jim Voyles | Florida St. | R-So | RHP | 23.0 | 88 | 35.3% | 9.1% | 29.1% | 9.2% | 80 |
| Brendan McKay | Louisville | So | LHP | 41.0 | 161 | 31.8% | 8.7% | 28.6% | 9.0% | 80 |
| Aaron McGarity | Virginia Tech | Jr | RHP | 11.1 | 49 | 38.5% | 8.1% | 28.4% | 9.0% | 81 |
Notes
Right fielder Seth Beer isn’t technically a true freshman — indeed, he’s what one might refer to whimsically as a “reverse redshirt” — because, instead of sitting out his freshman season, what Beer actually did was to bypass his senior spring of high school this year to instead enroll at Clemson in January and play baseball. The result: the top batting line in the ACC by a number of measures. Of particular — and possibly even predictive — note, one finds that Beer has produced both (a) one of the lowest regressed strikeout rates and (b) the actual highest regressed isolated-power figure in the conference. This is a collection of skills typically only reserved for members of the Toronto Blue Jays. If the Jays have any interest in acquiring Beer, they’d be well served to produce a miserable 2017 season, because at this rate, it seems improbable that he’ll remain available beyond the first handful of selections in the 2018 draft.
Big 12
Top Batter
Elliott Barzilli, 3B, TCU (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Elliott Barzilli, 3B, TCU (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Elliott Barzilli, 3B, TCU (Jr)
Top Pitcher
Levi MaVorhis, RHP, Kansas St. (Sr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Levi MaVorhis, RHP, Kansas St. (Sr)
Top Starter
Levi MaVorhis, RHP, Kansas St. (Sr)
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
| Elliott Barzilli | TCU | Jr | 3B | 105 | 11.4% | .278 | .468 | 13.7% | .182 | .340 | 133 |
| Sheldon Neuse | Oklahoma | Jr | SS | 107 | 19.6% | .295 | .492 | 18.9% | .190 | .342 | 129 |
| Darius Hill | West Virginia | Fr | COF | 94 | 6.4% | .238 | .333 | 10.8% | .164 | .328 | 126 |
| Darryn Sheppard | Baylor | Jr | COF | 106 | 13.2% | .222 | .377 | 14.8% | .162 | .332 | 120 |
| Josh Watson | TCU | Fr | COF | 106 | 22.6% | .295 | .283 | 20.9% | .189 | .324 | 119 |
| Eric Gutierrez | Texas Tech | Sr | 1B | 115 | 11.3% | .191 | .365 | 13.5% | .151 | .331 | 118 |
| Evan Skoug | TCU | So | C | 102 | 21.6% | .253 | .417 | 20.1% | .172 | .335 | 118 |
| Colby Wright | Kansas | Sr | 2B | 87 | 6.9% | .172 | .368 | 11.3% | .141 | .330 | 117 |
| Tanner Gardner | Texas Tech | So | CF | 105 | 7.6% | .131 | .507 | 11.3% | .127 | .343 | 116 |
| Stephen Smith | Texas Tech | Jr | COF | 121 | 15.7% | .204 | .370 | 16.4% | .157 | .332 | 116 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
| Levi MaVorhis | Kansas St. | Sr | RHP | 33.2 | 138 | 29.7% | 3.6% | 26.4% | 7.0% | 75 |
| Durbin Feltman | TCU | Fr | RHP | 9.1 | 36 | 39.2% | 5.6% | 26.4% | 9.0% | 81 |
| Chad Donato | West Virginia | Jr | RHP | 37.2 | 157 | 26.8% | 5.1% | 24.7% | 7.5% | 81 |
| Josh Sawyer | Texas | Jr | LHP | 5.0 | 19 | 48.2% | 5.4% | 25.9% | 9.3% | 83 |
| Rex Hill | TCU | Jr | LHP | 29.1 | 133 | 25.6% | 4.5% | 23.7% | 7.5% | 84 |
| Robert Dugger | Texas Tech | Jr | RHP | 25.0 | 105 | 26.6% | 4.8% | 24.0% | 7.8% | 84 |
| Ty Culbreth | Texas | Sr | LHP | 40.2 | 160 | 25.0% | 5.0% | 23.5% | 7.5% | 84 |
| Jeff Hardy | West Virginia | Sr | RHP | 9.2 | 42 | 33.5% | 7.2% | 25.0% | 9.2% | 85 |
| Steven Gingery | Texas Tech | Fr | LHP | 21.1 | 91 | 29.7% | 9.9% | 25.5% | 9.8% | 85 |
| Remey Reed | Oklahoma St. | Jr | RHP | 22.1 | 90 | 28.9% | 10.0% | 25.0% | 9.8% | 87 |
Notes
The top of the Big 12’s batting leaderboard features two players absent from even relatively deep 2016 draft-prospect lists, but who nevertheless have exhibited a compelling combination this season of offensive skill and defensive promise. Junior third baseman Elliott Barzilli arrived at TCU last season after transferring from Georgia Tech. More of a role player during his sophomore year, Barzilli has started every one of the Horned Frogs’ 24 games this season and produced better-than-average marks in all the maybe predictive categories. Oklahoma junior shortstop Sheldon Neuse has actually recorded a strikeout rate a couple points higher than the Big 12 average of 17.7%, but his power on contact has compensated for it. Indeed, Neuse has produced the highest regressed ISO and second-highest regressed BABIP in the conference.
Big West
Top Batter
Keston Hiura, CF, UC Irvine (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Branden Berry, 1B/COF, Cal St. Northridge (Sr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Keston Hiura, CF, UC Irvine (So)
Top Pitcher
Austin McGeorge, RHP, Long Beach St. (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Austin McGeorge, RHP, Long Beach St. (Jr)
Top Starter
Kenny Rosenberg, LHP, Cal St. Northridge (R-So)
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
| Keston Hiura | UC Irvine | So | CF | 105 | 15.2% | .354 | .500 | 15.9% | .194 | .330 | 144 |
| Branden Berry | Cal St. Northridge | Sr | 1B/COF | 116 | 7.8% | .276 | .333 | 10.9% | .169 | .315 | 137 |
| Josh Adams | UC Santa Barbara | R-So | DH/COF | 50 | 22.0% | .385 | .280 | 19.3% | .162 | .312 | 121 |
| John Schuknecht | Cal Poly | Sr | COF | 103 | 19.4% | .242 | .386 | 18.6% | .152 | .320 | 121 |
| Andrew Calica | UC Santa Barbara | R-Jr | CF | 113 | 7.1% | .154 | .304 | 10.6% | .120 | .313 | 118 |
| Tim Richards | Cal St. Fullerton | Jr | SS | 93 | 16.1% | .222 | .302 | 16.5% | .142 | .312 | 117 |
| Dempsey Grover | UC Santa Barbara | R-So | C | 86 | 10.5% | .148 | .446 | 13.2% | .115 | .323 | 116 |
| Colby Schultz | UC Riverside | R-So | SS | 84 | 8.3% | .157 | .328 | 12.0% | .118 | .314 | 115 |
| J.J. Muno | UC Santa Barbara | R-So | 2B | 105 | 15.2% | .195 | .265 | 15.9% | .135 | .309 | 114 |
| Dalton Blaser | Cal St. Fullerton | Sr | DH/COF | 91 | 4.4% | .115 | .333 | 9.4% | .105 | .315 | 114 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
| Austin McGeorge | Long Beach St. | Jr | RHP | 20.0 | 81 | 42.2% | 5.0% | 32.2% | 7.3% | 67 |
| Kenny Rosenberg | Cal St. Northridge | R-So | LHP | 41.1 | 153 | 37.2% | 6.5% | 32.0% | 7.5% | 68 |
| Robert Garcia | UC Davis | R-Fr | LHP | 28.0 | 104 | 36.7% | 6.8% | 30.2% | 7.8% | 73 |
| Justin Calomeni | Cal Poly | Jr | RHP | 11.1 | 48 | 45.4% | 8.3% | 30.8% | 8.4% | 73 |
| Kyle Nelson | UC Santa Barbara | So | LHP | 25.1 | 92 | 32.7% | 3.3% | 27.5% | 6.6% | 77 |
| Connor Seabold | Cal St. Fullerton | So | RHP | 27.1 | 103 | 28.3% | 2.9% | 25.2% | 6.4% | 82 |
| Spencer Howard | Cal Poly | Fr | RHP | 16.1 | 65 | 30.7% | 4.6% | 25.5% | 7.4% | 84 |
| Angel Rodriguez | Cal St. Northridge | Sr | RHP | 32.2 | 129 | 27.0% | 4.6% | 24.8% | 6.8% | 84 |
| Conner O’Neil | Cal St. Northridge | Jr | RHP | 28.1 | 110 | 31.9% | 11.8% | 27.5% | 9.8% | 85 |
| Justin Mullins | UC Davis | Jr | RHP | 19.1 | 84 | 26.3% | 2.4% | 23.7% | 6.4% | 86 |
Notes
Among the major-league position players who recorded seasons of three wins or better between 2010 and -14, products of the Big West accounted for the fourth-largest group of college draftees, trailing only those players who’d attended schools in the Pac-12, ACC, and Big 12. In particular the conference has succeeded in developing talented infielders. Regard: Danny Espinosa, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki, and Justin Turner all attended Big West schools. And while Long Beach State junior shortstop Garrett Hampson has has seemed the most likely to carry on that particular tradition, it’s actually two other draft-eligible shortstops who appear among the conference’s top-10 hitters: Cal State Fullerton junior Timmy Richards and UC Riverside’s redshirt sophomore shortstop Colby Schultz. The latter is a transfer this year from Saddleback College in California.
Pac-12
Top Batter
Logan Ice, C, Oregon St. (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Logan Ice, C, Oregon St. (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Logan Ice, C, Oregon St. (Jr)
Top Pitcher
Daulton Jefferies, RHP, California (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Daulton Jefferies, RHP, California (Jr)
Top Starter
Daulton Jefferies, RHP, California (Jr)
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
| Logan Ice | Oregon St. | Jr | C | 82 | 2.4% | .452 | .345 | 8.9% | .224 | .324 | 154 |
| Brett Cumberland | California | So | C | 79 | 19.0% | .433 | .421 | 18.4% | .215 | .329 | 139 |
| K.J. Harrison | Oregon St. | So | 1B | 103 | 12.6% | .302 | .343 | 14.5% | .186 | .324 | 132 |
| Colby Woodmansee | Arizona St. | Jr | SS | 99 | 12.1% | .247 | .368 | 14.2% | .164 | .326 | 125 |
| Ryan Aguilar | Arizona | Sr | 1B | 108 | 13.9% | .239 | .360 | 15.2% | .163 | .325 | 123 |
| Jeremy Martinez | USC | Jr | C/1B | 107 | 4.7% | .163 | .346 | 9.3% | .134 | .324 | 120 |
| Adalberto Carrillo | USC | So | 3B | 90 | 7.8% | .203 | .295 | 11.7% | .146 | .320 | 119 |
| Mitchell Kranson | California | Sr | 3B | 87 | 12.6% | .218 | .385 | 14.7% | .150 | .327 | 119 |
| Timmy Robinson | USC | Sr | CF | 102 | 18.6% | .259 | .302 | 18.3% | .169 | .320 | 119 |
| Eric Filia | UCLA | R-Sr | COF | 102 | 7.8% | .148 | .389 | 11.5% | .128 | .328 | 116 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
| Daulton Jefferies | California | Jr | RHP | 42.0 | 164 | 28.6% | 3.7% | 26.1% | 6.5% | 77 |
| Cole Irvin | Oregon | R-Jr | LHP | 40.2 | 160 | 27.5% | 3.8% | 25.3% | 6.6% | 79 |
| Troy Rallings | Washington | Sr | RHP | 20.1 | 75 | 33.2% | 8.0% | 27.0% | 8.9% | 81 |
| Drew Rasmussen | Oregon St. | So | RHP | 37.0 | 147 | 28.6% | 6.8% | 26.0% | 8.1% | 82 |
| Erik Martinez | California | So | RHP | 12.1 | 50 | 36.3% | 10.1% | 27.0% | 9.4% | 82 |
| Stephen Nogosek | Oregon | Jr | RHP | 15.2 | 58 | 32.9% | 6.9% | 26.0% | 8.7% | 83 |
| Seth Martinez | Arizona St. | Jr | RHP | 41.2 | 166 | 25.3% | 5.4% | 23.8% | 7.4% | 85 |
| Grant Dyer | UCLA | Jr | RHP | 20.1 | 86 | 28.0% | 5.8% | 24.5% | 8.1% | 85 |
| Colton Hock | Stanford | So | RHP | 20.1 | 81 | 32.0% | 12.3% | 26.6% | 10.2% | 85 |
| Brooks Kriske | USC | Sr | RHP | 17.2 | 67 | 30.0% | 7.5% | 25.1% | 8.8% | 86 |
Notes
The top two hitters in the Pac-12 by this methodology, Oregon State junior Logan Ice and Cal’s draft-eligible sophomore Brett Cumberland, are both catchers. Which, that raises an obvious question: are they the sort of college catchers who are likely to remain catchers professionally? Because if so, then they’d appear to offer considerable value to a major-league club. And if not so, then… less value, that. Concerning Ice, Kendall Rogers of D1 Baseball recently characterized him as an “elite defensive catcher.” Further haphazard research of the internet reveals similar assessments. With regard to Cumberland, one seems to find a less well-balanced skill set. Of Cumberland, former catcher and Cal assistant coach recently said that “Defensively, it’s progress — not perfection.”
SEC
Top Batter
Anfernee Grier, CF, Auburn (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Anfernee Grier, CF, Auburn (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Anfernee Grier, CF, Auburn (Jr)
Top Pitcher
Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Shaun Anderson, RHP, Florida (Jr)
Top Starter
Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida (So)
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
| Anfernee Grier | Auburn | Jr | CF | 129 | 15.5% | .274 | .494 | 15.8% | .197 | .359 | 129 |
| JaVon Shelby | Kentucky | Jr | 3B | 89 | 19.1% | .388 | .289 | 18.0% | .224 | .339 | 128 |
| J.B. Moss | Texas A&M | Sr | COF | 114 | 11.4% | .270 | .440 | 13.1% | .192 | .352 | 128 |
| Mike Rivera | Florida | So | C | 103 | 7.8% | .299 | .240 | 10.9% | .200 | .334 | 127 |
| John Jones | So. Carolina | So | DH/C | 113 | 11.5% | .247 | .432 | 13.2% | .183 | .351 | 124 |
| Nick Senzel | Tennessee | Jr | 3B | 114 | 9.6% | .250 | .361 | 12.0% | .184 | .345 | 124 |
| Niko Buentello | Auburn | Jr | 1B | 121 | 15.7% | .260 | .427 | 15.9% | .190 | .351 | 123 |
| Joshua Palacios | Auburn | Jr | COF | 125 | 15.2% | .234 | .482 | 15.6% | .180 | .357 | 122 |
| Peter Alonso | Florida | Jr | 1B | 116 | 8.6% | .228 | .329 | 11.3% | .176 | .342 | 121 |
| Michael Bernal | Arkansas | R-Sr | SS | 98 | 12.2% | .276 | .261 | 13.8% | .189 | .336 | 120 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
| Alex Faedo | Florida | So | RHP | 36.2 | 137 | 38.6% | 3.6% | 33.4% | 6.5% | 67 |
| Adam Hill | So. Carolina | Fr | RHP | 28.1 | 111 | 36.8% | 6.3% | 31.5% | 7.8% | 75 |
| Shaun Anderson | Florida | Jr | RHP | 17.1 | 67 | 35.8% | 0.0% | 29.3% | 6.3% | 77 |
| Clarke Schmidt | So. Carolina | So | RHP | 42.0 | 162 | 31.4% | 3.7% | 28.9% | 6.3% | 78 |
| Brady Bramlett | Ole Miss | R-Jr | RHP | 31.0 | 130 | 34.7% | 7.7% | 30.6% | 8.3% | 79 |
| Logan Shore | Florida | Jr | RHP | 37.1 | 142 | 31.0% | 3.5% | 28.4% | 6.4% | 80 |
| Sean Hjelle | Kentucky | Fr | RHP | 7.0 | 29 | 47.5% | 6.8% | 30.3% | 8.5% | 80 |
| Caleb Gilbert | LSU | Fr | RHP | 14.0 | 59 | 39.0% | 8.5% | 30.4% | 8.7% | 80 |
| Josh Alberius | Arkansas | R-Jr | RHP | 14.1 | 57 | 38.4% | 7.0% | 30.0% | 8.4% | 80 |
| Thomas Burrows | Alabama | Jr | LHP | 8.0 | 30 | 44.0% | 6.8% | 29.3% | 8.5% | 83 |
Notes
The SEC produced more than twice as many “good” major-league pitchers — that is, pitchers who’ve recorded seasons of three or more wins — between 2010 and -14 than any other collegiate conference. Notably, however, the conference’s current top-three starting pitchers by the methodology utilized here are all underclassmen. Florida sophomore Alex Faedo, South Carolina freshman Adam Hill, and other South Carolinian, sophomore right-hander Clarke Schmidt, all appear to complement their impressive numbers with the requisite arm speed to facilitate professional success, as well. Among the draft-eligible starters in the SEC, Florida junior right-hander Logan Shore would appear to possess the top combination of performance and physical tools at the moment.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
If the Jays want to acquire a Beer, they could still draft Logan “Molson” Ice.