The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats
What follows does not constitute the most rigorous of statistical analyses. Rather, it’s designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have considerably more enthusiasm for than actual knowledge of the collegiate game — a shorthand means, that is, towards detecting which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.
As in the first three editions of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles recently introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.
To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: KATOH+ for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and KATOH- (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.
Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each. Here are the types of player: top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. And here are the conferences: the Atlantic Coast (ACC), the Pacific 12 (Pac-12), and the Southeastern (SEC). As for why I’ve chosen those three conferences, it’s because they featured the most teams collectively included in D1 Baseball’s top-25 preseason rankings.
*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.
There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Chief among them: these numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent. That’s relevant because the three conferences here feature a plurality of college baseball’s best teams and yet few, if any, of them them have played a conference matchup. Which, that means (almost by definition) that most of the teams here have faced inferior competition.
Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. Note that xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively.
ACC
Top Batter
Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Matt Thaiss, C, Virgnia (So)
Top Pitcher
Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville (Fr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Benton Moss, RHP, N. Carolina (Sr)
Top Starter
Benton Moss, RHP, N. Carolina (Sr)
Top-Five Batters
| # | Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | KATOH+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Craig | Wake Forest | So | 1B | 93 | 9.7% | .364 | .452 | 13.1% | .210 | .347 | 142 |
| 2 | Matt Thaiss | Virginia | So | C | 76 | 6.6% | .344 | .302 | 11.8% | .194 | .336 | 134 |
| 3 | David Thompson | Miami | Jr | 3B | 97 | 7.2% | .253 | .353 | 11.5% | .173 | .340 | 128 |
| 4 | Kel Johnson | Georgia Tech | Fr | RF | 88 | 26.1% | .354 | .460 | 23.0% | .204 | .348 | 126 |
| 5 | Alex Perez | Virginia Tech | Sr | 2B | 87 | 9.2% | .264 | .311 | 13.0% | .174 | .337 | 125 |
Top-Five Pitchers
| # | Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | KATOH- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan McKay | Louisville | Fr | LHP | 19.0 | 72 | 41.7% | 8.3% | 31.6% | 8.8% | 72 |
| 2 | Benton Moss | N. Carolina | Sr | RHP | 15.2 | 65 | 40.0% | 4.6% | 30.2% | 7.7% | 73 |
| 3 | T.J. Zeuch | Pittsburgh | Fr | RHP | 31.1 | 122 | 32.0% | 2.5% | 28.0% | 6.2% | 75 |
| 4 | Drew Harrington | Louisville | So | LHP | 18.2 | 71 | 38.0% | 8.5% | 29.7% | 8.8% | 77 |
| 5 | Matt Pidich | Pittsburgh | So | RHP | 15.1 | 59 | 39.0% | 8.5% | 29.3% | 8.8% | 78 |
Notes
Florida’s David Thompson was the object of some discussion between the author and lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel when the former (an imbecile) attempted to craft his first pref list. The junior third-baseman recorded six homers in ca. 200 plate appearances as a freshman, but then zero in roughly 100 plate appearances last year as a sophomore. Of note, however, is that last year he was also recovering from a surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome. Now Thompson has four homers — and just a 7.2% strikeout rate — in roughly 100 plate appearances.
Pac-12
Top Batter
KJ Harrison, 1B/C, Oregon St. (Fr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Chris Paul, 1B, California (Sr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Chris Keck, 3B, UCLA (Sr)
Top Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)
Top Starter
Griffin Canning, RHP, UCLA (Fr)
Top-Five Batters
| # | Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | KATOH+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KJ Harrison | Oregon St. | Fr | 1B/C | 96 | 15.6% | .388 | .458 | 15.9% | .217 | .345 | 140 |
| 2 | Chris Paul | California | Sr | 1B | 80 | 7.5% | .308 | .436 | 11.3% | .182 | .342 | 132 |
| 3 | Chris Keck | UCLA | Sr | 3B | 79 | 15.2% | .369 | .362 | 15.7% | .200 | .337 | 131 |
| 4 | Gabe Clark | Oregon St. | Jr | DH | 67 | 17.9% | .400 | .297 | 17.2% | .200 | .333 | 128 |
| 5 | Kevin Kramer | UCLA | Jr | SS | 89 | 11.2% | .274 | .458 | 13.3% | .175 | .345 | 127 |
Top-Five Pitchers
| # | Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | KATOH- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Burr | Arizona St. | Jr | RHP | 13.2 | 59 | 45.8% | 11.9% | 31.8% | 9.2% | 71 |
| 2 | Griffin Canning | UCLA | Fr | RHP | 29.2 | 114 | 33.3% | 3.5% | 28.3% | 6.4% | 73 |
| 3 | James Kaprielian | UCLA | Jr | RHP | 31.1 | 126 | 31.0% | 4.0% | 27.0% | 6.4% | 76 |
| 4 | Bernardo Flores | USC | So | LHP | 13.1 | 54 | 37.0% | 3.7% | 27.4% | 7.2% | 77 |
| 5 | David Berg | UCLA | Jr | RHP | 18.0 | 78 | 32.1% | 2.6% | 26.3% | 6.5% | 78 |
Notes
Nothing about senior third-baseman Chris Keck’s season thus far resembles his previously established levels. Over this first three years with UCLA, he recorded just two home runs in roughly 250 plate appearances. Over roughly 80 plate appearances this season, he’s already hit six of them. Only two other players in the conference — Oregon State tandem Gabe Clark and KJ Harrison — have produced a regressed isolated-power figure of .200 or better, and neither of them have made as much contact as Keck. Undrafted after his junior year, that particular interval of history is unlikely to repeat itself.
SEC
Top Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Mikey White, SS, Alabama (Jr)
Top Pitcher
Ben Bowden, LHP, Vanderbilt (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Andrew Lee, RHP, Tennessee (Jr)
Top Starter
Brady Bramlett, RHP, Ole Miss (So)
Top-Five Batters
| # | Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | KATOH+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harrison Bader | Florida | Jr | LF | 84 | 13.1% | .484 | .413 | 14.2% | .246 | .339 | 148 |
| 2 | Mikey White | Alabama | Jr | SS | 83 | 12.0% | .348 | .458 | 13.6% | .202 | .342 | 133 |
| 3 | Alex Bregman | LSU | Jr | SS | 98 | 2.0% | .284 | .289 | 7.3% | .187 | .330 | 132 |
| 4 | Casey Hughston | Alabama | So | RF | 85 | 21.2% | .351 | .574 | 18.9% | .204 | .351 | 130 |
| 5 | Rhett Wiseman | Vanderbilt | Jr | RF | 103 | 16.5% | .302 | .508 | 16.2% | .195 | .348 | 129 |
Top-Five Pitchers
| # | Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | KATOH- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Bowden | Vanderbilt | So | LHP | 13.2 | 50 | 46.0% | 8.0% | 32.8% | 9.2% | 74 |
| 2 | Brady Bramlett | Ole Miss | So | RHP | 29.0 | 111 | 32.4% | 3.6% | 28.9% | 7.2% | 79 |
| 3 | Alex Lange | LSU | Fr | RHP | 31.0 | 117 | 33.3% | 6.8% | 29.6% | 8.4% | 81 |
| 4 | Daniel Brown | Miss. St. | So | LHP | 13.0 | 50 | 40.0% | 8.0% | 30.3% | 9.2% | 81 |
| 5 | Cole Lipscomb | Auburn | So | RHP | 22.1 | 90 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 29.0% | 8.1% | 81 |
Notes
While his name doesn’t appear beneath any of the three batting-related bold headings above, LSU shortstop Alex Bregman’s offensive accomplishment thus far this season is substantial: he’s the only batter in all the Southeastern Conference to have recorded more home runs than strikeouts. And, actually, it’s not particularly close at the moment: Bregman has a +3 differential, while the next-best mark belongs to a bunch of players tied at zero. Nor is this the only source of his offensive value: Bregman is also tied for second among all SEC player in stolen bases, having recorded 13 of them in 15 attempts.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
kek indeed
What I’m getting from this is that UCLA is a team to pay close attention to.
Until they got swept by three top 25 teams earlier this month. But they should still be given credit for strength of schedule. Not to say they’re a bad team, but maybe not “what we thought they were” (h/t to Dennis Green)
It may be that some Bruins who weren’t named on these charts may be weighing the team down. I don’t know; I’m not an expert in UCLA baseball.
But based on this information, it would be good to follow the Bruins specifically to see these players, as they project well based on the KATOH stats. And who knows? There may be some hidden gems on UCLA’s team.
I guess the moral here is just watch as much baseball as possible at all times.
Chris Keck home runs – how much can be attributed to the change in the baseball this year? Or is it the approach change based on the opportunity presented by the baseball change?
just leaving this here…..Alex Lange’s curveball sits around 83-84… someone needs to a piece on this
Bregman is so tiny. It’s impressive he is able to hit home runs given his genetic shortcomings.
Is he? He’s a solid six feet and is built like a brick. Seems fine to me.
Have been next to bregman several times. He’s 5’9 at MOST
how close was DJ Stewart of FSU to making the ACC top batters list? his average is down but dude is crushing and getting on base at a .500 clip
I love this article weekly, thanks for posting it. One thing I would like to see is a shoutout to a player from each of your categories that isn’t in one of the conferences you highlight. Like a best of the rest section. I mean, several of the best offenses in the country, such as UCF for instance, aren’t eligible for your list although their schedule has been plenty rigorous.