The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

What follows does not constitute the most rigorous of statistical analyses. Rather, it’s designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have considerably more enthusiasm for than actual knowledge of the collegiate game — a shorthand means, that is, towards detecting which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.

As in the first three editions of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles recently introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: KATOH+ for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and KATOH- (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each. Here are the types of player: top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. And here are the conferences: the Atlantic Coast (ACC), the Pacific 12 (Pac-12), and the Southeastern (SEC). As for why I’ve chosen those three conferences, it’s because they featured the most teams collectively included in D1 Baseball’s top-25 preseason rankings.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Chief among them: these numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent. That’s relevant because the three conferences here feature a plurality of college baseball’s best teams and yet few, if any, of them them have played a conference matchup. Which, that means (almost by definition) that most of the teams here have faced inferior competition.

Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. Note that xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively.

ACC
Top Batter
Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Matt Thaiss, C, Virgnia (So)

Top Pitcher
Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Benton Moss, RHP, N. Carolina (Sr)

Top Starter
Benton Moss, RHP, N. Carolina (Sr)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Will Craig	Wake Forest	So	1B	93	9.7%	.364	.452	13.1%	.210	.347	142
2	Matt Thaiss	Virginia	So	C	76	6.6%	.344	.302	11.8%	.194	.336	134
3	David Thompson	Miami	Jr	3B	97	7.2%	.253	.353	11.5%	.173	.340	128
4	Kel Johnson	Georgia Tech	Fr	RF	88	26.1%	.354	.460	23.0%	.204	.348	126
5	Alex Perez	Virginia Tech	Sr	2B	87	9.2%	.264	.311	13.0%	.174	.337	125

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Brendan McKay	Louisville	Fr	LHP	19.0	72	41.7%	8.3%	31.6%	8.8%	72
2	Benton Moss	N. Carolina	Sr	RHP	15.2	65	40.0%	4.6%	30.2%	7.7%	73
3	T.J. Zeuch	Pittsburgh	Fr	RHP	31.1	122	32.0%	2.5%	28.0%	6.2%	75
4	Drew Harrington	Louisville	So	LHP	18.2	71	38.0%	8.5%	29.7%	8.8%	77
5	Matt Pidich	Pittsburgh	So	RHP	15.1	59	39.0%	8.5%	29.3%	8.8%	78

Notes
Florida’s David Thompson was the object of some discussion between the author and lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel when the former (an imbecile) attempted to craft his first pref list. The junior third-baseman recorded six homers in ca. 200 plate appearances as a freshman, but then zero in roughly 100 plate appearances last year as a sophomore. Of note, however, is that last year he was also recovering from a surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome. Now Thompson has four homers — and just a 7.2% strikeout rate — in roughly 100 plate appearances.

***

Pac-12
Top Batter
KJ Harrison, 1B/C, Oregon St. (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Chris Paul, 1B, California (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Chris Keck, 3B, UCLA (Sr)

Top Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Starter
Griffin Canning, RHP, UCLA (Fr)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	KJ Harrison	Oregon St.	Fr	1B/C	96	15.6%	.388	.458	15.9%	.217	.345	140
2	Chris Paul	California	Sr	1B	80	7.5%	.308	.436	11.3%	.182	.342	132
3	Chris Keck	UCLA	Sr	3B	79	15.2%	.369	.362	15.7%	.200	.337	131
4	Gabe Clark	Oregon St.	Jr	DH	67	17.9%	.400	.297	17.2%	.200	.333	128
5	Kevin Kramer	UCLA	Jr	SS	89	11.2%	.274	.458	13.3%	.175	.345	127

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Ryan Burr	Arizona St.	Jr	RHP	13.2	59	45.8%	11.9%	31.8%	9.2%	71
2	Griffin Canning	UCLA	Fr	RHP	29.2	114	33.3%	3.5%	28.3%	6.4%	73
3	James Kaprielian	UCLA	Jr	RHP	31.1	126	31.0%	4.0%	27.0%	6.4%	76
4	Bernardo Flores	USC	So	LHP	13.1	54	37.0%	3.7%	27.4%	7.2%	77
5	David Berg	UCLA	Jr	RHP	18.0	78	32.1%	2.6%	26.3%	6.5%	78

Notes
Nothing about senior third-baseman Chris Keck’s season thus far resembles his previously established levels. Over this first three years with UCLA, he recorded just two home runs in roughly 250 plate appearances. Over roughly 80 plate appearances this season, he’s already hit six of them. Only two other players in the conference — Oregon State tandem Gabe Clark and KJ Harrison — have produced a regressed isolated-power figure of .200 or better, and neither of them have made as much contact as Keck. Undrafted after his junior year, that particular interval of history is unlikely to repeat itself.

***

SEC
Top Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Mikey White, SS, Alabama (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Ben Bowden, LHP, Vanderbilt (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Andrew Lee, RHP, Tennessee (Jr)

Top Starter
Brady Bramlett, RHP, Ole Miss (So)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Harrison Bader	Florida	Jr	LF	84	13.1%	.484	.413	14.2%	.246	.339	148
2	Mikey White	Alabama	Jr	SS	83	12.0%	.348	.458	13.6%	.202	.342	133
3	Alex Bregman	LSU	Jr	SS	98	2.0%	.284	.289	7.3%	.187	.330	132
4	Casey Hughston	Alabama	So	RF	85	21.2%	.351	.574	18.9%	.204	.351	130
5	Rhett Wiseman	Vanderbilt	Jr	RF	103	16.5%	.302	.508	16.2%	.195	.348	129

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Ben Bowden	Vanderbilt	So	LHP	13.2	50	46.0%	8.0%	32.8%	9.2%	74
2	Brady Bramlett	Ole Miss	So	RHP	29.0	111	32.4%	3.6%	28.9%	7.2%	79
3	Alex Lange	LSU	Fr	RHP	31.0	117	33.3%	6.8%	29.6%	8.4%	81
4	Daniel Brown	Miss. St.	So	LHP	13.0	50	40.0%	8.0%	30.3%	9.2%	81
5	Cole Lipscomb	Auburn	So	RHP	22.1	90	33.3%	5.6%	29.0%	8.1%	81

Notes
While his name doesn’t appear beneath any of the three batting-related bold headings above, LSU shortstop Alex Bregman’s offensive accomplishment thus far this season is substantial: he’s the only batter in all the Southeastern Conference to have recorded more home runs than strikeouts. And, actually, it’s not particularly close at the moment: Bregman has a +3 differential, while the next-best mark belongs to a bunch of players tied at zero. Nor is this the only source of his offensive value: Bregman is also tied for second among all SEC player in stolen bases, having recorded 13 of them in 15 attempts.