The Top-Five Blue Jays Prospects by Projected WAR

Earlier today, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the Toronto Blue Jays. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not Toronto’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Jays’ system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

Below are the top-five prospects in theToronto system by projected WAR. To assemble this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

5. Dalton Pompey, OF (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.235	.291	.356	80	0.3

A reasonable projection for a player with limited or no major-league experience requires the translation of that same minor leaguer’s stats to their major-league equivalents. There’s essentially a “penalty,” then, for numbers produced at Triple-A relative to the major leagues — and ever greater penalties for Double-A stats, High-A stats, etc. Pompey represents an interesting case insofar as he began the 2014 season at High-A Dunedin — indeed, remained there until the end of June — but ended it with the parent club. So, despite the fact that Pompey produced mostly competent lines in higher levels, a projection system like Steamer won’t ignore those 300-plus plate appearances in the Florida State League during which he produced very good, but also not unprecedented, numbers. If the projection appears muted relative to Pompey’s tools and/or late-season performance, this is the likely explanation.

4. A.J. Jimenez, C (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
415	.231	.268	.334	65	0.5

McDaniel begins his assessment of Jimenez by noting that the latter “isn’t a real exciting prospect.” The projections support this evaluation. Jimenez is forecast for only about a .100 isolated power (ISO), nor are the plate discipline (4.4% BB, 17.5% K) or batted-ball (.268 BABIP) projections particularly compelling. Jimenez has made contact at a slightly above-average rate in the high minors, however, while also establishing himself as a legitimate catcher defensively. Those two variables conspire to produce an adequate, present-day bench player. The half-a-win projection is reflective of that.

3. Daniel Norris, LHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
100	9.1	3.8	1.0	3.90	0.9

The left-handed Norris produced the highest strikeout- and walk-rate differential (23.9 points) among all qualified minor-league starters who recorded even one inning above High-A. The advantage of that metric is not only that it begins to stabilize in a relatively small sample, but also that it’s a simple and elegant predictor of future run prevention. In terms of expected usage, I’ve actually taken the liberty of publishing Norris’s projection over 100 innings — so, in a hybrid starting/relief role. The result is about a win — which might seem modest relative to Norris’s performance in 2014, but is also the product of his less dominant 2012 and -13 seasons, plus the fact that he didn’t even leave High-A until mid-June.

2. Matt Boyd, LHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
150	7.4	2.8	1.1	4.14	1.6

Like Norris, Boyd is a left-hander who began the 2014 season in the Florida State League and then proceeded to produce one of the best strikeout- and walk-rate differentials among qualified starters at High-A or above (20.9 points, third overall by that criteria). Boyd’s pedigree and repertoire differ from Norris’s, however. While the latter was given a $2 million bonus out of high school, the latter received just $75 thousand following his senior year at Oregon State. As one might expect, Boyd possess less velocity and less dynamic repertoire. Despite conceding a bunch of runs following a midseason promotion to Double-A — he recorded a 6.96 ERA in 42.2 innings over 10 starts — his strikeout and walk rates were still solid. Steamer is likely to weight the latter more considerably than the former.

1. Devon Travis, 2B (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.258	.302	.397	94	1.8

Like Boyd, Travis is another player who’s outperformed his pedigree. Signed for $200 thousand (or roughly a fifth round-type bonus) following his senior season at Florida State, he’s produced solid all-around offensive numbers despite the absence of a real carrying tool. What he does possess, however, is a combination of solid plate-discipline and contact skills, non-negligible game power, and the capacity to play second base. It’s a combination of skills all likely to be valued more highly by a projection system than a scout. Together, they conspire to produce a nearly league-average projection for a player who hasn’t made an appearance above Double-A. Encouraging, that.