The Top-Five Giants Prospects by Projected WAR

Yesterday, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the champion San Francisco Giants. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not San Francisco’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Giants system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

Below are the top-five prospects in the San Francisco system by projected WAR. To in this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

t4. Clayton Blackburn, RHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
50	7.5	2.5	0.8	3.63	0.2

Blackburn is projected as a reliever here. That’s not the capacity in which he’s made the vast majority of his minor-league starts, nor is it the role he’s likely to assume this year at either Double- or Triple-A. It is the role in which he made all six of his Arizona Fall League appearances, however, and that might be what’s influencing Steamer here. It matters with regard to the projection because it renders the rate stats more attractive but the overall WAR figure less so. It matters less, however, because Blackburn’s promotion to the majors isn’t imminent. In either case, he’s something slightly better than replacement level.

t4. Steven Okert, LHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
50	8.9	3.8	0.7	3.50	0.2

Unlike with Blackburn, there’s very little confusion as to the role within which Okert ought to be projected. He worked almost exclusively in relief as a collegiate at Oklahoma and has made all 118 of his professional appearances in that capacity, as well. Perhaps not to the same degree as Rangers right-hander Corey Knebel (to pick an example), but in that same mold, Okert represents a sort of baseballing archetype: a college pitcher who, because he’ll work in relief, features a low-ish ceiling, but also offers enough of both stuff and polish to provide value with some certainty.

t2. Hunter Strickland, RHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
50	9.9	2.6	0.6	2.78	0.8

Strickland’s harrowing playoff experience, during which he conceded six home runs and seven runs total over just 8.1 innings, obscured the fact that his 2014 season was a great success. He began it at High-A San Jose, proceeded afterwards to record strikeout and walk rates of 35.6% and 3.0%, respectively, over 35.2 innings at Double-A Richmond; and then actually produced better rates (36.0% K, 0.0% BB) while conceding zero runs in 7.0 late-season debut innings with the Giants. He possesses some flaws, of course, but he also possesses a fastball that sits at 98 mph, reasonably effective secondary pitches, and just as reasonable command. Those qualities, in tandem with his recent track record ought to be — and are by Steamer — ought to be weighed more heavily than his miserable postseason.

t2. Andrew Susac, C (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
415	.224	.297	.356	91	0.8

Walk rates typically don’t translate in a precisely regular way from the minor to major leagues. Certain minor-league hitters record large walk totals not just from a good eye but also a lack of command among their pitching counterparts. In the majors, there’s also a reasonably strong correlation between a batter’s power numbers and his walk rate. Consider: in 2015, no qualified batter saw a greater rate of pitches in the strike zone than Ben Revere; none saw fewer than Giancarlo Stanton. Those batters produced the lowest and third-highest isolated-power figures, respectively, in all the majors. This is relevant to Andrew Susac’s life and career insofar as (a) Andrew Susac has recorded high walk rates in the minors but also (b) he’s exhibited enough power, as well, to suppose that those walk rates won’t entirely deteriorate in the majors.

1. Ty Blach, LHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
150	5.9	2.6	0.9	4.07	1.3

McDaniel’s review of Blach is slightly more positive than his one of Clayton Blackburn. That appears to be how their projections play out, as well. The problem of Blackburn’s role is mentioned above, but even translating roughly from relief to starting projections (or vice versa), one finds that the two share broadly similar profiles: good command, probably one above-average secondary pitch, but also not enough arm speed to give you the vapors or even one vapor. Blach is both older and also he recorded more innings at Double-A last year than Blackburn. He seems likely to receive a major-league call before Blackburn. He also seems like, given the forecast here, that he offers a pretty decent chance of throwing nearly league-average innings.