FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/7/15

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Paul Swydan: Not sure who is with me tonight, but we’ll start at 9 pm ET. BASEBALL IS BACK! Let’s talk about it.

Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this. I never spoke with Jeff, so I think I’m flying solo tonight.

Comment From Guest
Baseball!

Paul Swydan: INDEED!

Comment From Tom Jones
In terms of an AL-only league, is Medlen, Nova or Matt Moore a better DL stash for a team looking to win this year?

Paul Swydan: Moore or Nova for me

Comment From John Farrell
Am I wrong in thinking that Mookie is more likely than not to score 100+ runs this season, assuming he stays healthy?

Paul Swydan: I think 100 is a hard bar to clear. Only 7 players cleared that last year. Could Mookie be one of the 7? For sure. Would I bank on it? No.

Comment From Jobu
Do you think Danny Salazar will still make an impact fantasy-wise this season? How confident are you that House and McAllister will be effective enough to hold down their current spots in the rotation?

Paul Swydan: I am confident in House and McAllister, but I am also confident that there will be an injury to someone at some point, and that Salazar will get his chance.

Comment From Tony the Tiger
Could I trouble you for a prediction on how many games Miggy and VMart play this season?

Paul Swydan: I think the over/under is 130ish, and at least one of them is not going to get there.

Comment From Fez
pedroia and vogt or dozier and norris?

Paul Swydan: Pedroia and Vogt

Comment From Minty
What’re the chances that Seager replaces a struggling Uribe before August 1st?

Paul Swydan: From what I’m told, low.

Comment From Minty
Who’s more likely to be pushed and debut in July, Sano or Gallo? Will either play 1B/3B?

Paul Swydan: I think Sano. I think Sano will play some third base.

Comment From West307
I can see Familia taking the Mets closing job and running with it. He has the stuff – high velocity FB, a GB inducing sinker – that all managers love in a closer. Even if Mejia does come back at the end of the month, do you think they give him the job back? TC also said that Rafael Montero would now be pushed into a more prominent bullpen role. How do you rate him as a late inning option? He looked good in his last start this spring but control has always been an issue.

Paul Swydan: I think I never know with the Mets. I could definitely see Mejia being SOL now that he’s hurt, and I could also see the rehab to this injury taking way longer than it should because Mets. Having said that, Familia wasn’t exactly a paragon of control last year himself. So we’ll see.

Comment From boysofsuma
Hi guys in a deep (16 teams) mixed and looking for relievers with good strikeout potential without killing the ratios considering Will Smith, Bastardo, Shawn Kelly or anyone you might recommend

Paul Swydan: Definitely like Shawn Kelley, but who knows what the pecking order in that bullpen is now.

Comment From Buggy
Should I trade votto for kris Bryant? Standard settings plus obp

Paul Swydan: I’d need to know a) if you’re going for it this season and b) if it’s a keeper league. If it’s a redraft league, I would not, because OBP makes Votto an elite player.

Comment From FlyingNimbus
Do you find that there is a conformity effect on polls that displays what other people voted for? Are we extra likely to vote for the most popular choice?

Paul Swydan: I don’t find that with our polls, but I think that is probably because there are six options. I think with polls with fewer options that is definitely a possibility.

Paul Swydan: Rockies doing it again. Three-run inning second time through the order. Garza not fooling anybody.

Comment From randplaty
AJ Preller is looking for a SS. Where do you see a possible fit?

Paul Swydan: Mariners and Dbacks come to mind quickly.

Comment From Quinn
I’ve really enjoyed the zone ESPN is using at home plate. Do you think this is help the push for a smaller zone so less balls get called as strikes or does it make a difference at all?

Paul Swydan: No, I think this is part normal technological advancements, and partly a reaction to the demand for faster pace of play. If pace between pitches really does speed up, then that means less time for replays of each pitch. So having the live K zone is very helpful in that regard.

Comment From Northsider
Is it safe to assume the “other” ingredient voted for was love?

Paul Swydan: Hmmmmm

Comment From Guest
What is the difference between a classic and sugar cookie? Is a classic cookie just a Biscuit?

Paul Swydan: According to my wife, they start as the same, but I thought delineating sugar from classic was important. Then again….

Comment From Matt
Shortbread is the best cookie

Paul Swydan: I forgot about shortbread. So, you know, this isn’t foolproof. Just some good cookie fun.

Comment From Brian
Time to take Steve Pearce seriously?

Paul Swydan: It became time to take him seriously like last July.

Comment From London Guy
Hi Paul, I need your insight. In an AL-only, 11 team league, I’m trying to stay competitive this year while looking toward next year. I have to cut either Jon Singleton ($6/final contract year), or one of three guys in their first contract years (Bird $3, Kubitza $2, Carson Smith $1). Any advice?

Paul Swydan: Man, that is tough because I really don’t know those other three guys. Yikes. Sorry. I wouldn’t feel too bad about cutting Singleton though. I don’t foresee him making an impact this year, even in an AL only league.

Comment From Curtis
First significant call-up AFTER Bryant?

Paul Swydan: Probably Jon Gray. Not too many people pay attention to the Rockies, so no one complained, but Gray doesn’t have much left to learn.

Comment From kmo4
What do you think if the Mets middle infield this year, as well as in the future?

Paul Swydan: Good offensively, horrible defensively. The worst defensively, actually.

Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Guest
Why couldn’t Tulo be NL MVP? I think on pure talent, he is only 2nd to Trout….Elite bat. Elite defense at a premium position. Good lineup at least

Paul Swydan: Yup, just needs to stay healthy. I don’t think there is any question he was headed for the NL MVP last year, he just couldn’t stay on the field.

Paul Swydan: As much as we love Kershaw, the NL MVP field was actually rather depressed last year.

Comment From stephen
props for chatting two nights in a row! you should get a raise.

Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t know about all that. But I appreciate it nonetheless!

Comment From FM Mood
Hey Paul, do you think Tulo gets moved in season? If so when and to whom?

Paul Swydan: I don’t, no. Rockies ownership is pretty stubborn, and Bridich and co. basically treated this offseason like they’re going to freeroll this season. If it works out, great. If it doesn’t, that’s OK too, and they’ll make the sea changes next offseason. That’s my gut feeling, anyway.

Comment From ChurlishBurlish
Who would you rather have this year, Charlie Blackmon or Travis snider. Showalter is batting snider 3rd tonight!!!

Paul Swydan: Snider. I don’t have much faith in Blackmon, and definitely don’t think he should be the Rockies’ leadoff hitter.

Comment From Crop Dustin Pedroia
I’m trying Ottoneu points scoring in a head to head format. Was this a good idea?

Paul Swydan: It’s at least half of a good idea (the Ottoneu part). I loathe head to head in baseball though, so I will never endorse that part of it.

Paul Swydan: Adam Lind got greedy. Makes the leadoff out trying to stretch a double into a triple. Foolish. You’re Adam Lind.

Comment From You Mama Big Time
How would you rank Richard Hidalgo among all time Astro Greats? I think he is top 3.

Paul Swydan: Pro tip: You can change the chorus of TLC’s “Creep” to “just call me Rich Hidalgoooo.”

As for Hidalgo himself, I’ll go top 10!

Comment From Matt
Kevin Gausman is hitting 100mph and has a nasty change/split, but the Orioles will trot out Ubaldo. The Orioles hate him. I mean trade him if you are putting in in a mid-relief role.

Paul Swydan: It’s certainly a tough situation. Bottom line is that they have to give Ubaldo enough rope with which to hang himself. We’ll see. I know Jeff is always super down on Gausman though, so I’m not all that concerned.

Comment From Curtis
Over/Under….162 HRs for Ackley?

Paul Swydan: Way over.

Comment From Chocolate Rain
If no one explains why “chocolate” was available as a cookie base pick, I will get my baseball analysis from ESPN for the rest of the season. I’m willing to hurt both of us if this issue isn’t resolved

Paul Swydan: So, I definitely considered it. But I always like to have “other.” I basically ended up whiffing on chocolate and shortbread. Not good on me. Just hurt me, Chocolate Rain!

Comment From mymaus
When is Rusney back in MLB?

Paul Swydan: I’m going to say by Memorial Day.

Comment From Schmesh
Bravos mashing tonight!!

Paul Swydan: Just like we drew it up!

Comment From Curtis
Predict the next big Padres trade!

Paul Swydan: As Cameron has said, it has to be something to address the left side of the infield.

Comment From Conner
If the Reds trade Cueto at the deadline, what kind of return could they get? Is a top 10 overall prospect a reach?

Paul Swydan: Probably a reach if they wait until the deadline. If they deal him in like, mid-June….maybe? Still probably a reach, but it happened last year, so it’s definitely within the realm of possibility.

Comment From Ryan
More concerning start: Karns or Latos?

Paul Swydan: Latos, because I don’t really expect much from Karns and because the O’s have a better offense in general.

Comment From Bill
Deep AL Only here, re-draft so no keepers. I offered Miggy for Hanley/Springer and was laughed at, he countered with Springer/Moss. Was my offer ridiculous? Should I take the deal? I have a Bourn-sized hole in my OF.

Paul Swydan: Your offer was a little ridiculous, sorry. I certainly wouldn’t be in a rush to take Springer/Moss though. Not necessarily an unfair counter, but not really one that’s blowing my skirt up either, even with the OF hole. OF is generally the easiest position to fill. Scour the wire.

Comment From Crummo
Drop Evan Marshall or Jim Johnson for Ottavino? I need saves so bad.

Paul Swydan: I don’t know that Ottavino is going to get save chances in the early going.

Comment From Schmesh
Souza or Rios in 5×5? Drafted Souza as sleeper but Rios sitting there on waivers…

Paul Swydan: Stick with Souza. It’s only been one night! 🙂

Comment From Pale Hose
It’s 12 innings into the season, and the Brewers haven’t scored off of Kyle Kendrick and Jordan Lyles

Paul Swydan: It’s a little concerning, especially since with the Rockies raking you know it’s not the ballpark or weather or anything like that.

Comment From Conner
Over/Under on innings for Matt Cain this year? Is “one” too pessimistic? Because this forearm strain sounds more and more like Tommy John is imminent.

Paul Swydan: It’s not too pessimistic, no.

Paul Swydan: As Jon Roegele pointed out recently at THT, one in five guys never throw another pitch:

http://www.hardballtimes.co…

Comment From Buggy
Head to head, do you stick to pitching your aces (hamels, sonny, shark) or do you try to load up on innings, regardless of era or whip?

Paul Swydan: I think innings pays, which is why I hate head to head. It takes no strategy other than “constantly stream starters.” Labor intensive and boring, that’s the worst.

Comment From Matt
Fine: The Orioles can give Ubaldo rope, but Miguel Gonzalez?

Paul Swydan: Yeah, I don’t like Gonzalez, I don’t think he’s worth keeping around, but Buck likes him.

Comment From john
I need Juan Jaime to close. Any hope?

Paul Swydan: Not even listed on last night’s bullpen report, so ….

http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From Curtis
Who would win a Phillies-Twins World Series this year?

Paul Swydan: The Twins, because they have better pitching.

Comment From #1
Who is the top pitching prospect in you’re opinion?

Paul Swydan: Urias or the Nationals kid. Blanking.

Comment From Guest
Given the OF prospects on the farm, I might not trade Tulo, but would be praying for a hot start from CarGo to move him

Paul Swydan: Yeah, more like a healthy start. I think there is enough belief in CarGo’s ability, it’s his health that is the issue.

Paul Swydan: Having said that, Dahl is not going to be ready this year, so I don’t see the rush to trade CarGo either if the Rockies are hanging around.

Comment From Curtis
Which player from the 1970s would be a good fit on a current team (skill-wise)

Paul Swydan: Joe Morgan would be a God today.

Comment From HS Student
Any advice on how to get a job with an MLB organization?

Paul Swydan: 1) Find your niche.
2) Learn coding and data management. I posted a job for the Rockies last week that was indicative of what teams want.
3) Get involved with the SABR case competitions at the college level. It’s a great networking event for people who want internships, and three of my interns/writers got internships with teams this summer in part because of those competitions.

Comment From You Mama Big Time
3 years from now, who will be the catcher for the M.U. Mets, d’Arnaud or Plaweki? Seems like they have solid talent at a tough position…

Paul Swydan: I think it’s hard to say definitively it would be Plawecki. Two years ago, we expected d’Arnaud to be a star at this point. It hasn’t worked out that way, but there is still hope. Bottom line is that catchers just develop more slowly. Hopefully for the Mets, they’ll have both in the majors and have a really great catcher for all 162 games.

Comment From Eric
Are the Rockies the most entertaining team in baseball? The offense I stacked and their pitching makes the opponents offense stacked. Ole fashion slugfest

Paul Swydan: I’m biased, but I certainly think so. Games at Coors Field are rarely boring. Add in the fact that the ballpark is absolutely gorgeous and you always get your money’s worth.

Comment From Aunt Jessie
Paul, regarding the Rockies job, it was an hourly position. The job is right up my alley, but dang, I’ve got 10 years tech industry experience. Is that hourly thing a common route with baseball teams for tech jobs? They’re not gonna attract the right talent like that.

Paul Swydan: They’re limited by what they can offer. The club has a somewhat arcane policy of not hiring people full-time during the season. I lived through a season of that in 2007, though my VP did right by me and treated me like a full-time employee during the postseason run.

I was told it was a job they WANT to be full-time, so this season would be a trial period. I agree with you though, it should be a full-time posting, and it certainly read like a full-time posting.

Comment From SM
If you’re any good at math just work in finance and do baseball for fun

Paul Swydan: Yes, that is a good strategy too.

Jean Segura just got hit in the head, btw. Scary.

Comment From Steve
Speaking of the Rockies, how can anyone think Arenado and Morneau are better offensively than Corey Dickerson? How the heck is he batting 6th in that lineup?

Paul Swydan: It’s a great question. I think if Morneau gets off to a slow start, Dickerson will be in the cleanup spot very quickly and Morneau will move back to sixth, but right now Morneau is coming off a batting title and Dickerson isn’t.

Comment From john
Is latos done?

Paul Swydan: Done is a strong word, but he is certainly not the Mat Latos we fell in love with.

Comment From Bob
Drafted D’Arnaud and Grandal late as C in 12 team mixed. Thoughts that either/both will be useful this year please.

Paul Swydan: I think at least one of them will be useful, I’m just not confident saying which one it will be.

Comment From Tyler
Whew, thought Segura just got hit in the face but I think it was mostly helmet…

Paul Swydan: Thankfully, it caught at least part of the helmet.

Comment From Curtis
thoughts on Jesse Hahn tonight?

Paul Swydan: They’re playing the Rangers, so I like him!

Comment From Larry Bernandez
Do you think that the Padres are testing the idea that prospects might be overrated in the present trade market?

Paul Swydan: I’m not sure I want to assign something like that to them, but I’m certainly willing to entertain that possibility. They have still paid hefty prices in some of their trades though.

Comment From Michael
So the Red Sox scrounged up a backup catcher called Sandy Leon. I am setting the over/under at 60 wRC+, place your bets, gentlemen!

Paul Swydan: I’ll put the over/under at 70.

Paul Swydan: He’ll probably settle at like 65 or so.

Comment From London+Guy
I’m in a standard 4 x 4, and every year it seems that teams that get buried deep early in WHIP have a hard time making up ground in that category, even more so than ERA. I seriously doubt anyone’s done any research on this, but it seems to affirm the “first do no harm” adage for pitching staffs.

Paul Swydan: I think it depends on how aggressively you look to remake your staff. If you wait until July or so, it’ll be tough. I generally give things a month, and then there is that period from May-June where you really have to make some decisions.

Comment From Michael
Clay Buchholz, Ace? Or is that just what happens when you pitch against the Phillies?

Paul Swydan: The latter.

Comment From Clay
Travis Snider… Rosterable for which size league?.

Paul Swydan: My league is 23-man rosters and 12 teams, and he is rostered. Probably need something that size or larger.

Comment From nick
Will the NERD scores for the days matchups be returning this year? I really enjoyed that column.

Paul Swydan: Don’t know, but I am posting it here so it helps me remember to ask Carson.

Comment From Paul
It’s probably wise for a college graduate to not immediately enter a Masters of Public Administration/Policy program until he has work experience and betters know what field to choose, but I’m worried about my job prospects. Any advice?

Paul Swydan: All I can tell you that if your masters is in the same field you did your undergraduate studies in that you really have to pick the right program, otherwise you’ll just be relearning stuff you already know.

Paul Swydan: I found that my masters degree was completely worthless, because all of the business courses were geared toward people who hadn’t taken business courses as an undergrad. I also found it didn’t help me whatsoever trying to land a job, but I was looking in very specialized fields to begin with, so it was always a gamble.

Comment From Guest
Paul, you are the boston guy, right? So how do you feel about Bobby Valentine? I know it

Paul Swydan: I still like Bobby, despite everything.

Comment From Pale Hose
Carson said end of April for NERD

Comment From Guest
Carson said latter this month for NERD scores, he wants more data from number cruching

Paul Swydan: Well there you go.

Comment From the Peanut Gallery
Clay Buchholz or Drew Hutchison full season roto?

Paul Swydan: Hutchison

Comment From Guest
Is Wade Davis’ ERA+ of 399 last season some kinda record or nope?

Paul Swydan: Hmmm. Probably not, but it’d have to be up there.

Comment From Mets fan
You’re projected record for the Amazin’s this year?

Paul Swydan: I’ll be optimistic and say 83-79.

Comment From Guest
The real way to get a job in baseball is from connections whether through networking or establishing a reputation outside of baseball by writing..etc. …Jeff Luhnow got his job because if I remember correctly, his girlfriends father was involved in the ownership somehow and liked his consulting background, so they made him VP of Player Development

Paul Swydan: I don’t think it was that simple, and I don’t think he started as a VP either. But yes, connections are important, which is why I mentioned the case competitions. They are judged and well attended by front office personnel.

For more on that, read this piece: http://www.hardballtimes.co…

Comment From Jose Wambino
Alcantara, Snider, or Kang?

Paul Swydan: SHOULD be Kang. Let’s see how much Clint plays him though.

Comment From Curtis
Do you think every Fantasy owner secretly (or otherwise) feels like he/she could be a real GM?

Paul Swydan: If my home league is any indication, no. But certainly a good percentage. That is the challenge with sports. Everyone has an opinion.

Comment From Aunt Jessie
Again on the Rockies posting: yeah, totally sounded like a full time posting. I may apply, actually, but I agree it reads like full time, etc. I’ve read about how they can underpay interns because there’s supply of employees, but for a job like that, you don’t just want an “intern..” So, that makes me a little worried about their real commitment to analytics.

Paul Swydan: From what I’ve heard, the commitment is real, and that they have at least two more full-time analytics people now than when I left at the end of 2010. So that’s good news.

Comment From Matt
Valentine made a bad season somewhat entertaining, which was nice

Paul Swydan: Yeah, and the roster was kind of a disaster, and not entirely Valentine’s fault. Lucchino poisoned the well vis a vis Crawford before the season even started.

Comment From EW
Is ESPN’s visible strike zone drawn from pitch f/x sensors or do they have their own technology? And if it’s not pitch f/x, should I even trust it?

Paul Swydan: I don’t know the answers to those questions. If it’s not PITCHf/x, it could be Trackman, which would be trustworthy.

Comment From flyingnimbus
If you were streaming pitchers, which teams would you target starts against? How would you weight picking against bad teams or maybe against a team that is overloaded on one handedness side or considering stadium?

Paul Swydan: I would almost always pick the bad team vs the handedness. On any given night, the handedness might not matter, but a bad team is a bad team. I would absolutely be streaming starters playing the Twins, Phillies and Rangers, and usually the Braves, though they turned that strategy on its ear tonight.

Comment From Chocolate Rain
Any chance Gausman gets to the closer role this year or is the starting potential too high? He’s gotta be the best arm in the Orioles’ pen

Paul Swydan: I don’t think he gets to the closer role, but I think he will get some starts.

Comment From Guest
Carson and Temple needed credit too. There was like 4 people in the chat at 12am. I’m shocked it wasn’t a west coast guy.

Paul Swydan: And they volunteered for those shifts too!

Comment From Chocolate chip
Better SS prospect: Correa or Russell?

Paul Swydan: I’ll say Russell just because he’s closer to the majors, but you probably can’t go wrong either way.

Comment From Aunt Jessie
How do you feel about the A’s looking to Cody Ross to patch up their outfield?

Paul Swydan: I’m fine with it. I find it hilarious that the Dbacks claim that they needed all of their outfielders lasted a whole game though.

Comment From AA
D Norris (SP) and A Bradley (SP) for ROY?

Paul Swydan: Never bet on the pitchers. I voted for Devon Travis and Soler, I believe.

Comment From JJ
12 tm + obp: what would you rather a Lind/Valbuena platoon when either are up against rhp… or take a flier on Snider and save the bench spot?

Paul Swydan: Snider

Comment From jesse
Fernando Rodney posted a 641 ERA+ in 2012 and Eckersly posted a 603 ERA+ in 1990

Paul Swydan: Thanks Jesse!

Comment From London Guy
Do you think the Yankees’ coaching staff can succeed again and make Eovaldi a breakout pitcher?

Paul Swydan: You mean break out further and reach a new plateau? I don’t think he can break out again. But yes, I think there’s a decent chance of that.

Comment From Curtis
Is it me or is that kind of an underwhelming Day 2 set of starters?

Paul Swydan: Ross vs Greinke is coming to save us.

Comment From Curtis
Cookie Rojas trivia?

Paul Swydan: If only I knew any good trivia questions for Cookie beyond the famous relatives…

Comment From G Money
Deep league, 16 teams, not a lot of pitching out there, any of these names worth a look, Cahill, Karns, Heaney, Montero, Erasmo Ramirez?

Paul Swydan: None of those jump out at me, sorry. Just try to find the guys who have the most job security.

Paul Swydan: Karns may be that guy just because of all the injuries to their rotation. Then again, he got crushed tonight, so….

Comment From Guest
Luhnow did start as VP of Player Development. There is an old Up and In episode where ironically Kevin Goldstein interviewed Jeff Luhnow, Granted a degree from UPenn,an MBA from Kellogg and extensive high end consulting experience can work magic can help you skip steps

Paul Swydan: OK, fair enough. In any case, Luhnow was a rare case. Most people don’t come into the game through that path.

Comment From EW
Do you expect any significant trades before June?

Paul Swydan: I don’t, but with AJ Preller lurking, you never know.

Comment From jesse
Wade Davis’ ERA(minus) is tied for 11th all time (min 50 IP)

Paul Swydan: Thanks Jesse!

Comment From Finley1976
What do you mean? Karns looked great…compared to Latos!

Paul Swydan: Boom. OK guys, I think that’s going to do it for me tonight. Thanks for hanging out as always. No chat next Tuesday – taking my son to see the Red Sox play the Nationals and to get him a Wally bobblehead. Perhaps on Wednesday. Stay tuned! And be safe on those internets.