The Top-Five Orioles Prospects by Projected WAR

Yesterday afternoon, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the Baltimore Orioles. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not Baltimore’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Orioles system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

Below are the top-five prospects in the Orioles system by projected WAR. To assemble this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

t3. Christian Walker, 1B (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.247	.301	.403	97	0.2

Last year, Walker hit 26 home runs in 599 plate appearances between Double- and Triple-A, recording a rate of 29 homers per 600 plate appearances at a ballpark that inflates that sort of batted ball by about 25% and then a rate of about 19 per 600 plate appearances a park that deflates home runs by roughly the same factor. This hardly leads to any strong conclusions about Walker’s power. That said, as a first baseman who lacks a decidedly above-average hit tool or walk rate, Walker’s success at the majors is probably contingent on hitting home runs. He’s projected to hit 19 per 600 plate appearances at the majors in 2015.

t3. Tyler Wilson, RHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
150	5.6	3.1	1.4	4.99	0.2

Wilson produced strikeout and walk rates of 22.7% and 6.2%, respectively, last season over 166.2 innings split mostly evenly between Double- and Triple-A, exhibiting no significant decay in those rates upon moving from the lower to the higher level. A promising development, that. His markedly lower projected strikeout rate for 2015 (14.3%) appears to be a product both of a translation of the minor-league numbers to the majors and also some more modest strikeout figures recorded by Wilson during his 2013 season. A possible argument for Wilson beating his projection resides in a reports concerning a slight addition to his sitting fastball velocity towards the end of 2014.

t3. Mike Wright, RHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
150	5.8	3.0	1.4	4.94	0.2

With the exception of 2013, Wright has typically produced less impressive strikeout rates than Tyler Wilson above, yet receives here a nearly identical projected strikeout rate (14.7%) for 2015. That’s likely due to Wright’s own path. As McDaniel notes, velocity hasn’t really been the issue for Wright, who sits at 92-94 mph and hits 97 (again, according to McDaniel). Rather, what Wright has lacked is reliable secondary pitches. Presumably, those are easier to develop than a harder fastball. Hence, the relative optimism in Wright’s projection (as compared to Wilson) relative to his minor-league resume.

2. Michael Yastrzemski, OF (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.238	.283	.373	82	0.5

Yastrzemski has more or less split his minor-league career, defensively speaking, between center field and the outfield corners. His defensive projection of about -3 runs per 600 plate appearances is a product of this, representing the average, roughly, of the center-field (+2.5) and corner-outfield (-7.5) positional adjustments. The reports support this notion that he’s a tweener in the field. In tandem with his lack of power, he’s unsurprisingly profiled by scouts as a fourth outfielder. In this case, that diagnosis is confirmed by the projections.

1. Dariel Alvarez, OF (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.267	.296	.395	92	1.1

It’s not surprising to find Alvarez, at 26 years old, atop this list. Whatever he’s likely to become, he’s pretty close to being that already. And what that is appears to be a reasonably useful bench player. He hit 14 home runs in 381 plate appearances at Double-A Bowie last year (a rate of about 22 per 600 PA), but that occurred in a park that inflates home runs for right-handed batters by about 25% — and, indeed, Steamer projects him for merely 13 homers per 600 plate appearances at the major-league level in 2015. With what appear to be above-average contact skills but only average power and defensive tools fit merely for a corner-outfield spot, Alvarez’s projection and scouting profile appear to be harmony here.