The Top-Five Pirates Prospects by Projected WAR

Yesterday, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the Pittsburgh Pirates. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not Pittsburgh’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Pirates system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

Below are the top-five prospects in the Pittsburgh system by projected WAR. To assemble this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

t5. Elias Diaz, C (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
415	.228	.278	.316	69	0.6

As McDaniel notes, Diaz was signed as an 18-year-old out of Venezuela for just $20 thousand. Age and bonus amount are pretty strong indicators of a Latin American player’s prospect status — and Diaz’s indicators suggest that his status as a prospect wasn’t “very highly sought after.” Statistically, though — with the exception of a couple low-BABIP seasons — he’s demonstrated a promising and constantly improving offensive profile, never striking out in more than 20% of his plate appearances and always exhibiting something better than negligible power. Moreover, his defensive skills at catcher appear to be his actual strength. Considered altogether, that’s a promising collection of qualities — one that renders him probably somewhere above replacement level.

t5. John Holdzkom, RHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
50	10.5	3.5	0.6	2.97	0.6

The John Holdzkom Story is a compelling narrative for a number of reasons, not the least of which is how it illustrates that redemption is a real thing that exists. That’s a welcome moral for any story. What else it illustrates is how, if you sit at 95-plus mph with your fastball and remain healthy for a sufficiently long interval, your chances of gaining employment as a ballplayer are pretty high. Holdzkom is one of a small group of relievers to appear throughout these companions posts: batters and starting pitchers possess an advantage in playing time. Holdzkom’s minor-league bona fides translate well to the majors, however. Despite having recently been optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis, he’s likely to appear on the major-league roster sooner than later — and is likely to succeed in that capacity, as well.

t3. Alen Hanson, SS (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.234	.272	.349	75	0.7

It’s surprising that Hanson enters just his age-22 season in 2015, as he’s been on prospect lists for a few years now, offering a combination both of impressive physical tools and performance relative to his various age/level. He’s listed here as a shortstop, and benefits from the shortstop positional adjustment in his WAR projections, as well. In point of fact, Hanson is a candidate to continue his pro career as a second baseman. The generic difference between the two positions comes out to about five runs over the course of a whole season. Given his speed and athleticism, however, it would be surprising to find Hanson produce UZRs in the three- or five run range. Accordingly, it’s probably not necessary to discount Hanson’s projection here substantially even despite the positional change.

t3. Nick Kingham, RHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
150	6.6	3.1	0.9	4.14	0.7

McDaniel suggests that Kingham’s repertoire isn’t particularly exciting, which appears to be the case. That it profiles as sufficient for one day retiring major-league batters at a roughly league-average rate is probably pretty exciting, however, both for the Pirates (who’ll benefit from those outs, especially relative to the cost) and Kingham himself (who’ll earn a pension and, hopefully, something more substantial than that). Steamer views that outcome as one which belongs to the future. For the present, Steamer forecasts Kingham as an adequate injury replacement. Of some interest will be his capacity to miss bats at Triple-A. After a 2013 season during which he produced strikeout rates above 20% at both High-A and Double-A, the 23-year-old was unable to repeat that feat at Double- or Triple-A in 2014.

2. Andrew Lambo, OF (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.248	.298	.431	104	0.9

Broadly speaking — insofar as they’re both lefties who occupy a corner-outfield spot and feature above-average power and are also nearly the same age — broadly speaking because of all those things, Andew Lambo would appear to bear some resemblance to former Pirates outfielder Travis Snider. But also Travis Snider is a major-league starter (for Baltimore now) and Lambo isn’t. What’s the difference between them?

Here are their respective Steamer projections, prorated to 550 plate appearances:

Player	Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
Andrew Lambo	26	550	6.2%	22.6%	.248	.298	.431	.183	.286	104	2.3	-11.0	0.9
Travis Snider	27	550	9.1%	21.8%	.261	.331	.446	.185	.305	117	11.1	-11.3	1.9

The power is roughly the same — and probably skews slightly in Lambo’s favor, actually, given the pretty substantial difference in home-run park factor for PNC versus Camden Yards. Snider makes a bit more contact, however, and has a three-point advantage in walk rate. That, and what would appear to be better projected BABIP skill, accounts for roughly a win.

1. Jameson Taillon, RHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
150	7.7	3.0	0.8	3.74	1.4

Owing to how he’s presently recovering from elbow surgery, these are obviously not the rates Taillon would produce were he to step atop a major-league mound today. Steamer doesn’t know that Taillon underwent a Tommy John procedure, specifically, but it does account for entire missed seasons. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many young pitchers return quite well from entire missed seasons. As such, it’s not surprising to see that borne out in something more rigorous than anecdotal evidence, too. A healthy Taillon profiles as something not unlike a league-average starter. Perhaps not quite that, yet — but also not far from it.