The Top-Five White Sox Prospects by Projected WAR

Yesterday afternoon, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the Chicago White Sox. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not Chicago’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the White Sox system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

Below are the top-five prospects in the White Sox system by projected WAR. To assemble this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

5. Trayce Thompson, OF (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.215	.285	.378	84	1.1

As he had in 2013, Thompson spent all of 2014 in the Double-A Southern League. In roughly the same number of plate appearances as 2013, he recorded roughly the same walk and strikeout rates, roughly the same number of home runs, and roughly the same slash line. Despite the similarity between those two seasons — and seeming lack of development — Thompson’s projection for 2015 is about half a win greater than it was for 2014. Reason No. 1: Steamer puts more emphasis on recent performance, and an adequate season in the high minors is more valuable than a slightly better one in the lower levels. And No. 2: Thompson is still ascending towards his peak, so the any age curve adjustment is bound to help him.

4. Micah Johnson, 2B (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.262	.310	.363	87	1.3

Johnson has ascended rapidly through the minors over the last two seasons. After beginning 2013 at Kannapolis in the Class-A South Atlantic League (at which level he about half a year older than average), Johnson recorded the majority of his plate appearance in 2014 at Triple-A (at which level he was nearly four years younger than average). His relative success isn’t a complete surprise, given his contact ability. While that gives him a relatively high floor, his lack of power limits his ceiling. Steamer projects Johnson to hit only seven home runs per 600 plate appearances in 2015.

3. Matt Davidson, 3B (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.218	.290	.382	86	1.6

Considered at points a candidate to move over to first base, Davidson made all but a small handful of his defensive starts at third in 2014. With his offensive struggles, it would appear as though the capacity to remain at the more challenging position — with the larger WAR positional adjustment — is necessary for the former D-backs prospect’s chances of producing wins at the major-league level. Power on contact remains an asset for Davidson, who hit 20 home runs last year in 539 plate appearances; the difficulty appears to be making contact in the first place, after he recorded a 30.4% strikeout rate with Triple-A Charlotte in 2014.

2. Tyler Saladino, SS (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.242	.308	.353	85	1.7

Because he’s recorded strong plate-discipline rates and exhibited the capacity to handle shortstop — and because he hasn’t really shown anything in the way of a carrying tool — Saladino features the sort of profile that typically receives higher marks from projection systems like Steamer than from scouts. With regard to Saladino, the precision of his projection is largely based on his fielding ability. As noted by the author in a needlessly lengthy meditation on defensive projections earlier today, Steamer — where minor leaguers are concerned — Steamer just assesses a generic positional adjustment (with no attempt to estimate defensive runs saved). In the case of Saladino, that adjustment is +6.1 runs — which is to say, the shortstop’s +7.5 run adjustment prorated down to 550 plate appearances. If he’s more of a guy who can merely handle shortstop but is more comfortable at second base, then perhaps 1.3 WAR is a more reasonable projection for 550 PAs.

1. Rangel Ravelo, 1B/3B (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.256	.316	.377	93	1.7

Defensive ability is even more relevant to Ravelo’s projection. Predominantly a third baseman earlier in his professional career, he receives the third-base positional adjustment the projection presented here. Unfortunately, Ravelo’s most recent defensive experience has taken place almost exclusively at first base. The positional adjustments between the two are substantial: +2.5 per season for third; -12.5 for first base. An adequate third baseman is still likely to become an above-average first baseman, so it’s not necessarily the case that Ravelo loses precisely 15 runs of value per season based merely on his move across the diamond. That’s he’s probably a 0.5- to 1.0-win player is more likely, however, than the projected figure listed above.