The Twins and Pirates Are Heating Up on the Basepaths

When it comes to stealing bases, the Central division leaders couldn’t be more different. The Pirates rank first in baseball with 44 steals in 53 attempts; the Twins rank last with six steals in 11. But for the past ten games, these two teams have been taking a similar approach. Since the end of April, both have been ramping up their efforts, stealing far more often than they did over the first few weeks of the season. To be fair, that means something completely different for either club: for Pittsburgh, it means stealing at a rate we haven’t seen in years; for Minnesota, it means simply stealing at all. In both cases, it warrants a closer look.

In 2022, the Twins ranked last in baseball with 38 steals and 55 stolen base attempts. Their team leaders in stolen bases, Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon, had just six steals apiece. The Rangers, who led the league in steals, ran more than three times as often as the Twins:

Part of the problem was the lineup Minnesota was working with. Of its top five players by plate appearances, the fastest runner was Carlos Correa, who had a sprint speed in the 44th percentile and hasn’t been a stolen base threat since his age-21 season. Luis Arraez, Gio Urshela, Jose Miranda, and Gary Sánchez were the only other Twins with more than 450 PA, and none of those guys is winning a footrace, to put it kindly.

Even the fastest players in Minnesota were hesitant to run, however. Buxton was only on pace to add another four or five steals had he remained healthy; a player with his skills could have easily stolen 25–30 bags, at least. Presumably, he was staying put out of an abundance of caution for his physical safety, yet if that were the only explanation, it’s odd he was running as often as he did. He stole enough bases to put himself in harm’s way, but he wasn’t running enough to maximize his value on the basepaths. Other Twins who stole less than you’d expect included Gordon, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler. All three had above-average sprint speeds and above-average OBPs, but they attempted significantly fewer steals than in 2021. In other words, speed wasn’t the only problem. By all appearances, the Twins were discouraging their players from taking extra bases.

It’s hard to understand why the Twins would take such an approach. It’s not as if they play in a hitter’s park, the kind that might discourage small-ball tactics, nor was there anything about their offensive skill set that would make steals less valuable. Their team batting average ranked 13th in the sport, and their isolated power ranked a few spots lower. What’s more, they finished last in the American League in UBR (Ultimate Base Running), which means they weren’t taking advantage of balls in play to move up extra bases. It makes sense that a team would avoid stealing if it had other ways of moving runners up, but that wasn’t the case in Minnesota; the Twins led the league in plate appearances with a runner on first (and only first) but ranked 16th in plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

Manager Rocco Baldelli understood his team was struggling on the bases, and he personally requested his predecessor, Paul Molitor, come to spring training to act as a baserunning guru. But Baldelli didn’t seem particularly interested in working on stolen bases. As Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes reported for The Athletic, “Swiping more bags isn’t necessarily the Twins’ focus this season.” Instead, Minnesota was interested in “aggressive, smart base running when the ball is put in play.”

Subsequently, as the 2023 season began, the Twins hardly stole at all. Through their first 22 games, they swiped just one bag in three attempts, and one of those so-called “attempts” was really a catcher pickoff instead:

Yainer Diaz catches Matt Wallner getting too far off of 1st. pic.twitter.com/Xb1HRB13I1

— Caught Stealing (@MLB_CS) April 10, 2023

Somehow, the Twins were stealing less than ever at a time when stolen bases were skyrocketing around the league. To make things worse, Minnesota’s baserunning drills in the offseason weren’t having the intended effect; the team’s -0.4 UBR wasn’t awful, but it ranked in the bottom third of the league. Once again, the Twins were struggling to move runners past first base, ranking last in baseball in plate appearances with runners in scoring position, even when adjusting for on-base percentage.

And then they finally got the green light. Since April 24, the Twins have attempted eight steals in 10 games. Out of context, that number isn’t going to knock your socks off: It’s tied for 17th-most in the sport, and 12 other teams have stolen between seven and nine bases in that time. At the same time, eight stolen base attempts represents a remarkable turnaround for the Twins. After all, this team didn’t steal eight bases in a 10-game span at any point last season.

By most teams’ standards, the Twins aren’t doing anything unusual here. It’s not as if Miranda is suddenly racking up steals. The faster guys on the team have been running, and they’ve been picking the right catchers to run against. Buxton, Kepler, Michael A. Taylor, and Willi Castro have combined for seven of the eight attempts, and all of the catchers they’ve run against have below-average pop times: Jose Trevino, Salvador Perez, and Yasmani Grandal. In other words, the Twins aren’t rolling out a brand new approach to baserunning. Simply put, the team needs more guys in scoring position, so it looks like Baldelli is going to be giving the green light a little more often:

The Pirates are in a whole different world. They’ve already swiped more bags than the Twins did in the entire 2022 season; 14 Pirates have stolen a base (insert joke about plundering here), and seven have stolen at least three. But much like the Twins, the Pirates have ramped up their stolen base efforts since the final week of April. Twenty-two games into the year, Pittsburgh ranked fourth in stolen bases (22) and fifth in stolen base attempts (27). In the 10 games since, the Bucs have stolen another 22 bags, doubling their season total in less than two weeks. From April 23 to May 3, they stole at least one base in nine straight games, with the streak only ending Thursday afternoon against Tampa Bay. Even with the new rules, that’s an impressive feat. No team has stolen more than 20 bases in a nine-game span since 2016, and it’s only been done a handful of times in the last 20 years.

So what was fueling this stolen base spree? Some of it had to do with the competition the Pirates were facing. They stole 12 bags in three games against the Dodgers, who have struggled to hold runners on all year. On the flip side, the only catcher Pittsburgh has faced in the last ten games with an excellent pop time is Christian Bethancourt, who held the Pirates to one stolen base in two games.

The Pirates were also giving themselves more opportunities to steal. Over their first 22 games, they posted a .331 OBP (12th in baseball). During their nine-game stolen base streak, that number rose to .361 (third). What’s more, that increase was driven almost entirely by singles; their walk rate and slugging percentage remained consistent, but their team batting average rose by 25 points. They were also hitting fewer home runs, going from a homer every 31 plate appearances to one every 44. With more runners on first and fewer home runs to clear the bases, the Pirates had more chances to steal, and they took advantage. That helps explain why their streak came to an end on Thursday; not only were they up against an excellent catcher, but they also had just six men reach base all day. By on-base percentage, it was their worst game of the season.

It has certainly helped that Pittsburgh’s fastest runner has had more chances to steal. Ji Hwan Bae posted a .288 OBP through April 22, but that number rose to .357 in the 10 games since. Accordingly, he has stolen more bags in the last 10 games than in the first 22. His stolen base numbers, however, have increased at the same rate as the rest of the team’s. In other words, his work has been impressive (eight steals in the last ten games), but it’s not skewing the numbers. Simply put, the entire team has been more aggressive, and it goes beyond footspeed and catchers and opportunities. Like the Twins, the Pirates have had the green light more often.

Indeed, there’s no other way to explain Carlos Santana and his three stolen bases. The man has 16th-percentile sprint speed and hasn’t attempted more than five steals in a season since 2017. That’s not the kind of guy who steals third base with two outs on a whim:

Here’s another example of Santana stealing a bag. There’s nothing tricky going on; he takes his lead, gets a good jump, and slides in ahead under the tag. A better throw would surely have gotten him, but his speed (or lack thereof) isn’t the point. I don’t need any further proof that the Pirates are getting more aggressive on the basepaths than this right here:

If you do need a little more proof than a 37-year-old first baseman swiping a bag like it’s business as usual, consider this: The Pirates have been much more aggressive in stealing third base over the last 10 games. In their first 22 contests, five of their stolen base attempts (18.5%) were at third. Since then, they’ve attempted another eight steals of third base (30.8%); for context, the league-average rate is 13.2%. We’re talking small samples here, but this is further evidence that the Pirates are changing up their approach to make the most of the new stolen base environment. Stealing third is all about timing the pitcher and getting the perfect jump, and that’s precisely what the new rules are facilitating.

The Twins and the Pirates have been two of the most pleasant surprises over the first month of the season. Minnesota is now the hands-down favorite in the AL Central, and Pittsburgh has officially entered the NL postseason race. As these two teams fight to hold onto their playoff positions, they’ll be searching for competitive advantages all year long. Perhaps an aggressive approach on the bases is exactly what they need to put them over the top.