The Underrated $64 Million Man
Adrian Beltre signed a 5 year, $64 million contract with the Mariners after his amazing 2004 season. Anyone expecting a repeat of that kind of performance was in for an instant disappointment, and Beltre failed to live up to even more modest expectations during his first year in Seattle, posting a .255/.303/.414 and being proclaimed a free agent bust. That label has stuck, and it’s still fairly common to see Beltre written about as an overpaid, under performing disappointment.
It’s just not true.
Beltre has been one of the better third baseman in the American League for the better part for the last two years, and he’s putting the finishing touches on an April that is one of his best months since coming over from the Dodgers. In last night’s game against Cleveland, he went 2-2 with a single, a three run home run that broke a 2-2 tie in the 9th inning, and three walks to reach base in all five of his trips to the plate. His 2008 line now stands at .309/.409/.553, or basically indistinguishable from what David Wright is giving the Mets and Aramis Ramirez is putting up for the Cubs. There isn’t a third baseman in the American League off to a better start to the season than Beltre.
He doesn’t have to keep hitting like this to justify his contract, however. In 2006 and 2007, Beltre put up two seasons of similar quality to each other, establishing himself as a slightly better than league average hitter while playing a quality defensive third base. Among American League third baseman, the only guys with an argument as superior players are Alex Rodriguez and Mike Lowell. While he’s obviously not in A-Rod’s class, you have to wonder how much their respective home parks are influencing the opinions of Lowell and Beltre. Put Lowell in Safeco and Beltre in Fenway and I’m not sure this is still a conversation we’re having.
Even if Beltre doesn’t sustain his April performance (and he probably won’t – he’s a very streaky hitter who always has good months and lousy ones), he’s still an above average major league player, 2-3 wins better than a replacement level third baseman, and in the American League, that makes him a borderline All-Star. The Mariners didn’t sign him to recreate his 2004 season in perpetuity – they signed him to be a quality player at the hot corner, and that’s exactly what he is.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
He doesn’t seem to have any of those nagging injuries (thumb, hammy) so far which I hope leads to offensive highs for him as a Mariner this season. The defense he plays is indeed fun to watch. He also appeals on his own checked swings better than anyone in the game!