Dave Bush Sent Down Due to…Um…

The Milwaukee Brewers optioned Dave Bush to their AAA Nashville club this week following an 0-3 start with a 6.75 ERA. This irked many in the statistical community, especially MGL, because not only is Bush pitching better than the barometric numbers indicate, he is pitching right on par with normal #3 or #4 starters.

The problem, after looking into it more, is not necessarily that Bush’s optioning stems from his slow start but that it may have to do with his Jekyll-like transformation once runners get on base. In 1649 career PA, batters are posting a .253/.307/.420 clip against Bush while the bases are empty. When occupied, though, this jumps to .314/.355/.546 in 1121 PA. Despite these numbers, if the decision to option Bush stemmed from a kneejerk reaction to a small sample size, this argument does not even hold water.

This year, with 57 PA, opponents are hitting .320/.404/.560 with the bases empty. In 47 PA, they are hitting just .263/.340/.368 with runners on base. In the early going he has allowed a higher percentage of runners to reach base but has actually reduced his slash line once they get to their respective bases.

Ned Yost attributed the move to control issues. In his four 2008 starts, Bush has thrown 57.6% of his pitches for strikes. In 2007 he threw 65.6% strikes out of 2972 pitches. In 2006 he threw 66.4% strikes out of 3021 pitches. He has thrown a lower percentage of strikes, putting himself into more “Hafta’ Counts” and forcing himself to pitch from behind. The Brewers had a pitching surplus entering the season, often fostering rumors of trading Bush and/or Claudio Vargas.

Seemingly happy with the production from Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Suppan, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra, the team felt they could handle letting Bush get his control back in a few minor league starts. The decision was definitely based off of a small sample size and, in that regard, makes little sense, but I hope they realize it is way too early to sell their stock on Bush.