The Whiffing Machine

Per innings ratios are often misleading. Identical pitchers can face the same number of batters and produce the same number of walks, strikeouts, and home runs while one completes more innings than the other. Defense plays an integral part in shutting down an opposition. If one of those pitchers has the Seattle Mariners defense behind him and the other has the Boston Red Sox, then you would imagine the pitcher benefiting from Franklin Gutierrez and Adrian Beltre will complete more innings.

The more defensive independent option is to look at total amount of strikeouts or walks on a per batters faced ratio. The ratios are easy to get a grasp on and have less room for outliers (at least in theory), which is why when you see a line that features 40% strikeouts and 6% walks you feel your eyes protrude and heart beat quicken.

Then you realize those percentages belong to a hitter and the magnetic field alters in the opposite direction.

Believe it or not, that line is real, and it belongs to the M’s Greg Halman. The 22-year-old has a history of striking out a ton and not walking very much. The differences between strikeouts and any other type of out is usually overplayed, but there’s something seriously flawed about an approach when the ratio is this high at the Double-A level. His other raw tools – mostly power and speed – are impressive. Impressive enough that Baseball America named him the Mariners number one prospect entering this season. Although that ranking came with this warning:

Weaknesses: For all his upside, Halman presents more risk than most No. 1 prospects. His pitch recognition is below-average, resulting in many swings and misses and mis-hits as he chases pitches out of the zone. He’s too aggressive at the plate to execute much of a plan, and as a result he strikes out too much and walks too little.

Our minor league leaderboards only track back to 2006, but as best as I can tell Halman’s rate represents the highest in the Southern League in this time period by a decent margin. For some reason, I don’t think that’s an honor Halman cares to hold.