The Winter’s First Trade Shows How the Game Is Changing
If you had Jerry Dipoto in the pool of which GM will make this off-season’s first trade, congratulations, you win nothing because of course he did. Trader Jerry is baseball’s version of the red paperclip guy, attempting to take his team from mediocrity to contention by making a million small upgrades. And his latest deal is particularly interesting, even if it wasn’t exactly a swap of household names.
The deal’s particulars.
Seattle Gets:
Ryon Healy, 1B
Oakland Gets:
Emilio Pagan, RHP
Alexander Campos, SS
A couple of years ago, the analysis on this kind of deal would have been pretty simple. The Mariners traded a 26-year-old generic reliever for an at-worst platoon hitter and maybe an everyday first baseman with some power. Any time you can turn a fungible bullpen arm into a more valuable hitter, you have to do it. Relievers are fickle, and it’s not like Pagan is an upper-tier arm, so even with Healy’s flaws, reliever for slugger is a win for the Mariners.
But the game is changing, and the most dramatic shift we’ve seen in player valuation the last few years has been a significant increase in interest in controllable (and option-able) depth arms, while one-dimensional power hitters have seen their costs regress heavily. While relievers are still wildly inconsistent, the fact that every team now wants four or five swing-and-miss arms in their bullpen has created a market for guys who were previously seen as interchangeable, and this trade represents a lot of the changes the market has undergone over the last few years.
After all, Mark Trumbo is in the midst of a $38 million contract that he got after rejecting a qualifying offer, and Ryon Healy isn’t all that different from Mark Trumbo.
| Name | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryon Healy | 36.3 % | 58.9 % | 46.4 % | 59.0 % | 88.1 % | 75.5 % |
| Mark Trumbo | 36.5 % | 67.5 % | 50.4 % | 56.8 % | 82.3 % | 72.1 % |
Healy makes a bit more contact on swings in the zone because he’s a little bit choosier about which strikes he swings at, but he’s gone after balls just as aggressively, and thus his game is built around doing damage when he does make contact. He doesn’t quite have Trumbo’s power, but with a slightly better strikeout rate, the overall skillsets end up being about equal. Like Trumbo, Healy is a low-OBP, defensively-challenged power hitter with enough thump to be valuable against lefties, and with some improvements, could be playable against righties.
Of course, one of the first things Jerry Dipoto did when he was hired by the Mariners was to get rid of actual Mark Trumbo, and he’s spent most of the last few years moving the team away from this kind of player. But with a hole at first base and a bunch of needs on the pitching side of things, Dipoto saw a chance to try and fill his first base hole cheaply, leaving money in the budget to pursue some necessary upgrades on the other side of the ball.
And if one still doesn’t buy into the rising valuation of non-elite bullpen arms, Pagan isn’t a huge loss. Steamer projects him as a replacement level reliever in 2018, as his mediocre minor league track record doesn’t entirely support his pretty good performance in the majors last year. A year ago, Eric Longenhagen had him as just another arm in the team’s minor league system, noting he “works up in the zone with a fastball at 92-94 and throws an average slider”. In the majors, though, Pagan was sitting 94 and topped out at 97, which allowed his fastball to play up and gave him the ability to miss enough bats that his fly-ball tendencies didn’t hurt him.
As an extreme fly-ball guy, though, Pagan is just a little bit of command regression away from being a guy who gives up too many home runs to be trustworthy in close games, and since his secondary pitch is better against righties than lefties, he might end up profiling as more of a right-handed specialist than a face-anyone-setup-guy. In an age where every team wants guys they can shuttle between the majors and the minors to keep fresh arms available, Pagan has value as a good arm who can be effective in relief, but also has options and can be moved back and forth when the team needs a fresh arm.
A few years ago, you don’t get Mark Trumbo 2.0, with five years of team control remaining and nowhere near his expensive arbitration years, for a fungible relief arm and a kid who is at least four or five years from the majors. But this isn’t the first time Dipoto has traded a surprisingly interesting relief arm for a chance to fill first base cheaply, and the results of that trade should be a reminder that it’s not always a win to swap reliever for a low-end 1B.
A year and a half ago, the Mariners traded Mike Montgomery to the Cubs for Dan Vogelbach, as Montgomery also looked like a replaceable bullpen arm who had only been good for 60 innings in relief work. Vogelbach had hit well all through the minors, and despite significant defensive flaws, the Mariners hoped that getting six years of a controllable young first baseman was worth giving up Montgomery, even as he had turned into one of their best bullpen arms.
But the Mariners bet on Vogelbach didn’t pay off, as his weaknesses outweighed his strengths, and now they’re trading for his replacement while Montgomery has been a solid left-handed piece of the Cubs bullpen the last couple of years. And the Mariners clearly could have used Montgomery in their bullpen last year. With the increasing reliance on relievers, it’s no longer as simple as saying that if you can turn a reliever into a potential everyday player, it’s a win.
Healy has his uses, but in 2018, when good relief arms are in high demand and power is cheap, I think I’d probably rather have the optionable reliever who can get it up to 97 than a guy who fits best as the weak side of a platoon. The Mariners hope that, this time, trading for a mediocre first baseman means they won’t have to keep giving away useful relievers to fill this hole again next year.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Dipoto has a habit of trading for mediocre pitchers, hoping one of them pans out. I guess this is part of a wider strategy.
That said, I kind of like buying low on Healy and also like this trade better if Dipoto invests some of that money he saved in actual starting pitching upgrades (*cough*Darvish*cough*). I just don’t like that he gave up an actual valuable major league piece to do it.
Yeah, I certainly thought Healy was going to fetch more than this. The Oakland FO has been really weird for a while now.
I will say that I could see them making some big splashes this winter. They’ve got oodles of payroll space…. cough cough Stanton cough…
I agree that Healy could have theoretically brought back more in a trade (particularly to a division rival). However you had me until, “They’ve got oodles of payroll space…. cough cough Stanton cough…”
At that point, I looked at the A’s finances, and … wow. If they really wanted to, they could actually afford Stanton. After accounting for the arbitration-eligible players, they have about 30-40M to work with for 2018 (and possibly beyond). They have almost no long term commitments for contracts. I haven’t heard any Stanton-to-the-A’s rumors, but it makes sense for a variety of reasons. I doubt it would happen, but the Athletics are certainly a valid dark horse candidate for the Stanton Sweepstakes.
No, they’re really not. The notion that the A’s could take on Stanton’s contract focuses too much on one year payroll and not enough on their overall situation.
Until the A’s get their stadium situation resolved, they are one of those teams (like the Rays) for whom even the later arb year costs of players become an issue if they graduate a good cohort of young players at the same time.
Beane talked about that dynamic in an interview with Eno Sarris a couple years ago: ” ‘One of the beauties of what they’re doing is that they have the ability to hold on to those [good, young] players for a while,’ said Beane of the Cubs and Astros. ‘That would be a challenge for us. In some sense, if we embarked on a five-year plan, we would not be able to afford it in Year 3.’ ” https://www.fangraphs.com/plus/why-the-as-rebuild-cant-work-like-houstons-or-chicagos/
The A’s simply don’t have the revenue in their current situation to commit $30 million of payroll to one player for a long period of time.
Its more complicated then that though. Not much is known about the OAK Tv deal, but I believe its up around the projected time of a new park. John Fisher the teams primary owner is one of the deepest pocketed in MLB, the team is privatly funding the new stadium. So Oak if they lock in the site for certain this winter, has an owner that is capable of running the team on a deficit for a few years if he so chooses. Once your out of limbo with a real path forward you can change your planning acordingly. I dont know what they will choose to do, but I wouldnt be suprised to see payrolls around 70-95mm over then next few years as they move into the new park.
Also keep in mind that while they have more logistical hurdles with the proposed site, if it doesn’t look like its working out the current colosseum location has 100 acres and is an easy lock if the other doesn’t work out. Oakland has been a lot more motivated to keep the A’s since the warriors are moving across the bay and the raiders are moving out.
Bingo, Dave T. This…
http://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=1762400
…is *still* the largest contract in A’s history. When crudely adjusted for inflation, it’s basically what Dexter Fowler got last winter. There’s no way The Mighty Giancarlo Stanton is a viable option for Oakland.
I also don’t think that philosophically, there is any reason why Billy Beane would trade for a guy he can’t flip later due to the no-trade clause. If there’s one thing Billy Beane prizes, it’s the ability to flip a player elsewhere if it doesn’t work out.
They have no commitments past this season, period! Stanton would be a risk however since the team will get towards the expensive side before the new stadium opens. Stanton now put in stasis for three years would be the deal. So I guess they will have to wait a little longer before the payroll boosting moves of opening a new park.
I would change my equation however if Oak could sign Ohtani, lock him in, and take most of the money on Stanton and Gordon, while dealing Lowrie for prospects to use getting Stanton/Gordon, and sign a couple relievers. I could see taking money from the Marlins to add a couple finishing pieces, since the room is there, only under conditions where the rest of the offseason has already worked in a way it shouldn’t. If OAK cleared Davis/Lowrie/Joyce out for some prospects and pitching, and signed Ohtani, and a couple relievers, then maybe with what added payroll you have after the trades you look at turning around and getting some combination of Stanton/Yelich/Ozuna/Gordon for less talent and more money. Then hope the fanbase turns out for a winner before the new ballpark opens.
I had to work pretty hard to get to even a remote solution for Stanton making sense. I would assume OAK could build a package around Megden, Montas, Holms, Bassit, Hahn, Cotton, and some of the younger relievers in some combination so they could help MIA with a couple pitchers or three and maybe one prospect. They have what MIA needs, being arms with upside that can pitch in the bigs, probably why OAK was already talking to MIA about the non-Stanton OF.
Not the worst trade in the world for the M’s, I guess, but certainly not a win, and I think certainly a win for Oak to get a 17 YO kicker on top of a k heavy young arm who showed impeccable control in 2017. If that control keeps developing, and even if not, it’s easy to see Beane having a chance to paperclip flip Pagan for something nice at some future deadline.
Not a bad trade? SEA got by far the most talented player – that’s a win by many definitions. He is a big leaguer. When you get a legitimate roster piece for replaceable pieces, then I think that is a good move. Obviously, they don’t believe in what they sent away. K heavy RP literally grow on trees. Just start converting every 2 pitch SP in your organization to the bullpen and you are all set. Can you imagine how long the list of flaws must be to have zero career starts in the minor leagues? At 27, I don’t think he is very young – pitchers only have so many bullets in their arms. This is in all likelihood a nothing deal for both teams. This community values RP a lot more than the real world does. They get given away near the deadline all the time or they are close to free as FA. Why not just pick up the 30-something, established guy that is drawing little interest or the guy that is coming off of injury? They are never in short supply.
This is a weird trade for the Mariners.
As you state, Healy isn’t useful against RHP. He had a WRC+ of 89. So he’s a platoon partner for someone like Lucas Duda, which is fine, but as many 1B options as there are, you wonder if just spending a little bit of money for a short-term fix is better than shuffling off a cheap reliever who seems pretty good.
Especially given the “wolfpack” idea which, to me, indicates you’d want as many Emilio Pagans around as possible. I’m not apoplectic about this trade, certainly — I think it reflects the undesirability of the non-Santana 1B FA pool, in part — but I think at best it’s “fair” and runs some risk of being a pretty big loss. In this way, it’s like most Jerry trades.
Even more odd are his Home/Road splits. Healy murdered LHP in Oakland, did little else everywhere else.
Trading Healy creates a positive domino effect for the A’s improving their defense and their OBP. He has more value for the Mariners (cheap controllable power hitting 1b) than Oakland where 1b, 3b and DH are already occupied by guys who project to hit 30 HRs next year.
With a lot of contracts coming off the books, the A’s can shop for a RHH outfielder to complement Fowler, Boog Powell, Joyce and Pinder (which makes the outfield infinitely better defensively than it’s been in a decade). And move Khrush to DH. Plus we can plug in Renato Nunez – whose profile exactly mimics Healy’s – if they need to.
The A’s bolster their bullpen (and an extreme flyball pitcher can be successful at the Coli), and they get a lottery ticket player who addresses the two biggest deficits in their system: defense and OBP.
By 2019 the A’s could run out an infield of Chapman, Mateo, Barreto and Olson.
There is a non-zero chance Mateo goes in center field. We’ll see; the A’s are a little more flexible about who goes at shortstop than other teams.
Disagree on Vogelbach. He’s had very few MLB PA’s (44, to be exact) and while his performance has been miserable, that’s such a small sample size it’s almost negligible. Based on his game-to-plate appearances ratio, I’m guessing he was largely relegated to a pinch-hitting role too.
Vogelbach is just now turning 25, so it’s not as though he’s old by any standard. His walk to strikeout ratio will play at the MLB level, so even if he’s only got 15 HR power, I think he’s a 110-120 wRC+ kind of guy with more upside than downside. I’d buy low on him if I could.
Healy is the kind of player I hate, much like Mark Trumbo as you said, because oh my god take a walk. But his ugly, ugly slash line doesn’t look so bad if you only play him against lefties: .314/.343/.534 in his career.
Vogelbach and Healy would make for a nice platoon imo.
It’s a luxury (maybe not a smart one) to use two roster spots on, at best, average-hitting 1B who need a platoon partner and are defensive liabilities with no athleticism.
DiPoto has been trading upside and athleticism for low ceiling mediocrity since he arrived in Seattle. Not a winning strategy, imo.
25 is the age where a player needs to really start establishing himself by at the major league level. Not that you’re a total loss if you haven’t, but most above average players are already sticking in the big leagues at that point, so i’d say it is somewhat old by mlb rookie standards.
I don’t disagree that he has 110-120 wRC+ potential, but that really isn’t all that valuable from a first baseman, especially a defensively challenged one. I don’t see a whole lot of upside to buy low on.
Healy put up a 100 wRC+ last year and has a career wRC+ of 110. His career minor league numbers and .ISO are far worse than Vogelbach’s.
This is getting to the point that I cannot read any articles. Immediately as I opened this one up (and Jeff’s Javy Baez article the other day) there is a very loud Playstation ad that plays. There is no image of this ad anywhere just loud explosions and sci-fi sounds and then the Playstation trademarked sound.
And now as I am typing this, audio for some Christmas add saying “Parump a pum pum” is starting and stopping. I need audio for my job, so I can’t just mute, and this is making it so I cannot read the articles as I feel like taking a 2-3 minute break.
On the article, I still take the bat over the bullpen arm. The arms are so all over the place that I would bet on my own guys breaking out than I would someone else’s
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I think the direction of the site is amazing. My concern is that something is going wrong with the ad system. There are audio ads playing that there is no image for.
No one resents FG supporting itself, and I find the ad-free option well worth the cost. But it’s disappointing that no one at FG seems to take any responsibility for what is apparently a dramatic change in how the site plays for those who don’t use ad-blockers or buy their way out of ads.
Buy a membership instead of freeloading.
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Just a few things to point out.
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So as far as I am concerned, I will not buy any ad block software, and I will continue to click through ads that I find compelling. However, ads that make it so I cannot access the site until I am finished with work and am able to mute my computer, will keep me off the site as long as they are on here. It will just be a change in my behavior.
I also still believe that with the volatility of bullpen arms, it is a better decision to bet on the arms that you already possess and know more about, and stick with your position players instead of trading them away for unproven arms with very limited track records.
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Seems awfully fast to give up on Vogelbach, a guy with 44 terrible major league PAs but has been demolishing upper-minors pitching for 1000 PAs and is entering his age-25 season. Maybe he’s just a Quad-A guy, but a few dozen plate appearances isn’t enough to know that with any degree of certainty. Hopefully they are planning on a platoon, as Carl Allen suggests in his comment.
I’d sure bet that Vogelbach can hit righties better than Healy can.
He is the kind of guy that people love to hate. I don’t but he has always faced an uphill battle going back to his days in the low minors. This community will never value him highly as he doesn’t have a WAR-centric skillset.
This is an interesting article but it seems to come uncomfortably close to inferring the state of “the market” (i.e. player valuations as a whole) from one trade. And especially from a trade like this, that seems on the foolish side. These two teams both make tons of trades, especially of replacement-to-average-level MLB players, to reallocate from positions of depth to positions of need — and as deliberate gambles. So one or the other of them may end up “losing” or “winning” this trade simply because there’s so much uncertainty built in, by design! But that doesn’t necessarily tell you much about the absolute value of the assets involved.
I agree with your take 100%. There is not a headline in your take though. It is a fringy regular for a couple of pieces…
Perhaps the better question is why would you go with a platoon at first base when your team’s pitching strategy relies on starters going two times through the order, then handing it over to the bullpen?
If the Mariners are to have an eight man bullpen, wouldn’t that mean just less positional versatility? If I’m the Mariners GM, I’m in on Carlos Santana, sign a pitcher and good defensive OF, shore up the bullpen, and call it a day.
I would have tried for Santana, too. Hopefully, the new plan is get Healy, sign two pitchers and a good defensive OF, shore up the bullpen, and call it day. Knowing Jerry, that’s one of 17 plans he’s working through as we speak. (My personal choice is: trade the whole team away, sign a bunch of the world’s best cricketeers, call it a day.)
Maybe they’ll bring in someone who can pitch and play 1B for them…
Mitch Moreland’s eyes just lit up.
Both teams traded from positions of depth, and in the Mariner’s case, filling the hole at 1B with a guy making the minimum allows them to spend their fairly significant cap space on pitching. Signing a Carlos Santana or resigning Yonder Alonso would’ve been fine, but the Mariner’s offense is not the primary area of need for the team. Both players have upside. I think this is almost the epitome of an even trade.
It’s the chasing of mediocre 1st basemen that doesn’t make sense to me. If you’re going to go cheap, why not take a shot with someone who looks more promising, such as Christian Walker? Wouldn’t have likely costed much more (if at all).
My guess is that Dipoto will be searching for help again at the deadline. But many of the current free agent 1B options will likely be available via trade at that point with half of their salary paid down.
I suppose this also gives him the luxury of sitting back and signing a leftover at a discounted price. Maybe they’d snag someone like Mike Ford if he’s available in the Rule 5 draft.
In what way is Vogelbach a failure? He had 30 PA in the big leagues this year. He had an .844 OPS in AAA with great strikeout and walk numbers, yet the Mariners won’t give him a chance.
I’d understand if the Mariners already had a good first baseman. But you’re telling me you won’t give a guy who’s mashing an AAA a fair chance because you have…Danny Valencia and his 95 wRC+? I’m not buying it.
It’s not Vogelbach’s bat that’s the question, it’s his defense.
Healy’s defense is pretty suspect, too. I don’t see why Vogelbach can’t at least DH or platoon or something.
Because Nelson Cruz is the best DH in baseball and Vogelbach’s defense hasn’t met the bar yet–which is low.
For the record, I’m not a fan of this move, unless Healy were to start the season in AAA. He barely got his feet wet there before getting called up.
A bit odd that the team top 10 prospect wasnt even mentioned in the discussion. There is some value there too.
To be fair he is now Oak number 28 prospect so I wouldn’t call him top 10. He is interesting and young, and if adds more power he could turn into something more real, and he is very young.
As a Mariners fan, what concerns me about not just this trade, but many of Dipoto’s trades in general is the High Ceiling/Low Minors for High Floor/High Minors or Majors archetype. I understand the Mariners are in “Win Now” mode 2016-18 with their aging core, but if they aren’t in the playoffs this season or next they risk watching guys like Campos, Branyan Hernandez, Drew Jackson, Alex Jackson and Luiz Gohara have MLB careers in exchange for what has so far amounted to negative value from guys like Max Povse, Rob Whalen, Daniel Vogelbach, Taylor Motter and Chase DeJong. Healy is essentially free in $ and is almost certainly an improvement over the M’s 1B production in 2017, but that doesn’t make him good. It’s entirely possible Gohara alone is worth more than the total combined value of Povse/Whalen/Motter/Vogey/DeJong/Healy in just next season, not even factoring in a full MLB career. Playoffs or bust is not dealing from a position of strength.
Does this trade have any impact on the Mariners’ $$ pool available to attempt to sign Ohtani?
Vogelbach must be AWFUL at 1B, because he keeps tearing up AAA pitching without getting a real shot at the majors.
You mentioned Pagan as replacement level. Where can one find the replacement level for the various positions?
If Healy can’t lower his o swing percentage he needs to swing more. Just 58% z swing and 46 swing% is too low for a guy chasing that much. His zone minus o swing is just 22% which is very bad, that looks like artificially taught patience to me.
Now of course ideally he improves his pitch recognition but if he can’t he probably is better of letting it fly more in the zone even if it means his walk rate gets even lower.
Maybe getting out of Oakland helps him because the A’s are well known for trying to teach patience to any batter. Now that isn’t bad but only if the guys have some natural pitch recognition ability.
So maybe he can be a 35 hr guy in Seattle even if it means he is a 30/3 k/BB guy which of course is not a good thing.
Btw what di poto does with Vogelbach is just criminal. I understand vogs hasn’t done well but it was 44 PA in 2 years. I guess even mike trout in his best year had a 44 PA stretch were he was sub replacement level. I’m not saying vogs can be a mlb regular because he has weaknesses but with his minor league stats you at least need to give him like 300-400 PAs to prove or disprove himself.
I mean why do you call him up at all if you send him down after 30 PAs? even if he goes 2 for 30 you need to give him more of a chance or no chance at all. That is just bad.
He was called up when Valencia was injured. There was no intent to start him then, and when he was called up in September, they were still hanging around for that 2nd wild card. Once they were out of it, they probably should have played him more, but apparently they wanted a harder look at Alonso to see if they really wanted to bring him back. That’s the best I can figure, anyway.
Dipoto makes a lot of moves and a lot of them end up not being good.
This just fits right in with his M.O. He’s an overrated GM who is fun to watch for the 29 *other* fanbases, but inevitably a disappointment for Seattle.