Yankees Fifth Starter(s)
The Yankees may rely on Sergio Mitre or Ivan Nova to be their fifth starter this year. You may think that this is patently un-Yankee-like, but you’d be wrong. In the past five seasons, Yankees starters have compiled 72.5 WAR, good for eighth most in the Majors. However, virtually none of that was compiled by their fifth starters.
The fifth slot in the Yankees rotation has rarely been consistently filled by the same person, making it generally impossible to give one player credit for being the fifth starter. In 2006, Shawn Chacon started the year as the fifth starter, but in examining the game logs, Cory Lidle, Aaron Small, Sidney Ponson and Jeff Karstens all took turns there as well. That magical quintet combined for 32 starts and -0.4 WAR. The next season, Phil Hughes’ debut offset Kei Igawa’s own disastrous debut, but the net result between their performances and Darrell Rasner’s was 0.7 WAR. Two-thousand and eight’s motley mix of Ponson, Ian Kennedy and Carl Pavano tallied a whole 0.3 WAR. The next season, 2009, saw Hughes back in the fifth-starter mix, as he, Chad Gaudin, Chien-Ming Wang, Chad Gaudin and Mitre combined for 0.9 WAR. And last season, the Javier Vazquez Experiment, Version 2.0 didn’t end all that spectacularly either, as he posted a -0.3 WAR. He was replaced late in the year by Nova, who undid his damage and balanced the scales with a 0.4 WAR.
The year 2011 may see more of the same juggling. As it stands now, the Yankees’ fifth starter looks to be Mitre. He does one thing very well, and that’s get ground balls. Mitre’s career 2.37 GB/FB ratio is seventh among all pitchers since his debut in 2003 (minimum 400 innings pitched). And while it’s debatable if producing ground balls is a good idea, what with the Grumpy Old Men currently patrolling the left side of the Yankees’ infield (you can tell me which one should be Lemmon and which one Matthau), ground balls are still generally better than the alternative. Unfortunately, when Mitre does allow fly balls, they tend to go far. Of the 274 pitchers who have thrown at least 400 innings since 2003, Mitre’s HR/FB ratio of 14.5 percent ranks 274th, which strips away most of his value. As such, Mitre’s xFIP numbers can be misleading. As it states in the fabulous Saber Library (now housed here at FanGraphs), there are some players who are prone to underperforming the league average in HR/FB ratio. Mitre is one of those players, as 2007 is to date the only year of his career when his HR/FB ratio was below the traditional league average.
Of course, if the Yanks and Andy Pettitte can end their Mexican standoff without drawing pistols, Mitre would be pushed to either the bullpen or the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre shuttle in favor of Nova, who is currently the fourth starter. Never listed by Baseball America as an organizational top 10 prospect and not reaching Triple-A until his sixth season, Nova shot up the Yankees org chart when his fastball gained a few miles an hour. Still just entering his age 24 season, he’s actually not all that dissimilar to Mitre, as Nova generates his fair share of groundballs. Last season, his GB/FB of 1.72 as a starter was equal to that of Roy Halladay. But his problem was a problem common to fifth starters – he couldn’t get deep into the game. He never saw the seventh inning in any of his seven starts, and while that is a very low sample, it’s something that could determine whether or not he succeeds long-term in the Bronx.
Looking ahead to 2011, Nova’s outlook is a little sunnier than that of Mitre. There is as of yet no Fans projection for Mitre, but Bill James’ has him compiling a 4.57 ERA and 4.46 FIP, though it’s almost exclusively in relief duty. Nova does have a Fans projection, and though they get there in different ways than does James, they basically agree in their FIP projection (4.22 for James, 4.23 Fans). The Fans have him pitching more innings, with both a lower strike out and walk rate, and being worth 1.7 WAR. The other option at the Major League level would be (gasp!) Joba Chamberlain, but the Yankees seem determined to keep him in the bullpen despite his career 3.63 FIP. Both projections also have him in mainly a relief role. Still just 25, Chamberlain is probably capable of transitioning back to starting, and doing so better than he did in 2009, but right now it seems a moot point (Dave Allen will check in later today with more on Chamberlain).
If Nova posted that WAR of 1.7 or better, it would trump the Yankees’ grand total of 1.6 WAR that they have accumulated from the last slot in the rotation the past five years, a staggeringly low total, especially when compared to Boston’s 10.9 WAR during the same period. Despite this, the Yankees have managed to win 478 games (good for a .590 winning percentage), reach the postseason four times and bring home a World Series trophy in that time. So whether the fifth starter is Mitre, Nova, Chamberlain, Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances, someone they pick up just before or during the season (like the just signed Bartolo Colon), or all of the above, Yankee fans can take comfort knowing that while they won’t have Ron Guidry circa 1978 out there, whoever is will be hard pressed to do worse than Yanks’ fifth starters of recent vintage.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
That their fifth starter is questionable is one thing. That their fourth is basically also a fifth, and their third is AJ Burnett should be more cause for concern.
This is exactly right — there’s no team that has a “reliable” #5 SP. The Yankees are not unusual in that respect. The Yankees’ problem is that everyone below their #1 is unreliable (i.e., Hughes is a decent-but-not-great #2; Burnett is a flammable #3; and, Nova and Mitre are normal #5’s).
#1 Kershaw
#2 Billingsley
#3 Kuroda
#4 Lilly
#5 Garland
#6 Padilla
Barry Zito is the de facto No. 5 on the Giants and he’s pretty reliable. Joe Blanton should be pretty good for the Phillies, Clay Buchholz is currently listed at the #5 spot for the Red Sox, Brandon Beachy/Mike Minor look like excellent fifth starter options for the Braves, the Dodgers are probably using Jon Garland, and the Tigers got Brad Penny. Quite a few teams have very deep rotations.
Barry Zito is not “reliable”; ask any Giants’ fan. I’m pretty sure the last word that would come to mind when you said the words “Barry Zito,” would be reliable. #1 would be “combustible.” #2 would be “horrendous.” When Barry pitches, you never know whether you are going to get 7 IP/2 H/6 K/2 ER or 2 IP/9 H/6 BB/7 ER. That is the definition of unreliable.
Blanton is a good example of a fairly reliable #5, but the Phils’ rotation is an anomoly, with four #1’s in front of a #4/5 SP.
Re: Buchholz — he may be the #5 in name, but he’s really the Red Sox #3 or #4. Dice-K is probably the real #5 there, and he’s is fairly unreliable.
Re: Minor — he’s a good #5.
The other two teams that could be tossed in here are the White Sox, with Peavy as a #5 (although, at this point in his career, calling Peavy “reliable” might be a stretch) and the Twinkies with Kevin Slowey or Brian Duensing as the #5.
The Tigers #5 is Phil Coke, not Brad Penny (they dealt Near Perfect Galaragga).
Despite these counter-examples, the general point stands: Most (as in, maybe 80-85%) of teams do not have a reliable #5 SP. A few lucky teams do, but most teams have a #5 SP from whom they never quite know what they are going to get.
As a Giants fan, Barry Zito is most definitely a reliable #5. Obviously it’s awful that we’re paying our #5 that much money, but he’s still going to be one of the best #5s in the league. I’m not sure you realize how bad a #5 starting pitcher generally is.
What about the Reds? They have:
1. Arroyo
2. Cueto
3. Volquez
4. Bailey
5. Wood
6. Leake
That’s 6 solid if healthy starting pitchers right there, and if you count Maloney, (who pitched servicably last year) that makes 7 decent starting pitchers for the Reds. They may not be aces, but almost all of them qualify as “reliable”, at least in terms of talent if not (yet) innings.
Probably a dumb question, but why do teams have five starters and not four or six?
because six eight seven
so whether six is Sidney Ponson, C.C. Sabathia, or David Wells, the Yankees have six starters, right?
Less stress on arms. There’s been studies done that have shown that allowing four days of rest instead of 3, is good for the player’s arm. Allowing more, however, is not giving them enough work. Also another adding point is that (the Yankees aren’t alone) it is tough to find 3 good pitchers, let alone 5. A #5 starter is just someone who is young or a player who’s given a shot. A #4 is just an innings eater (Cole Hamels/Roy Oswalt excluded). Adding another slot in the rotation is a diluted the water too much, so to speak.
Another adding point is that, although not logical, it’s traditional. A lot of managers have done the 5 man rotation for some time and don’t wish to change it. So there’s logic and stubbornness to the end result of a 5 man rotation.
pretty sure baseball prospectus did a study showing 5 days rest is no more beneficial than 4. but players and agents would mutiny out of fear of injury and bigger contracts. and managers would get skewered if the rotation didn’t perform well.
The five man rotation started with the 1969 Mets who happened to be blessed with bunch of great young arms: Seaver, Koosman, and a rookie named Nolan Ryan, among others. They defeated of course the Orioles, who had 4 twenty game winners in their stating rotation that year. Success breeds imitation and others followed. Course rule changes added to increase offense made pitching more difficult thru the late 60’s – early 70’s: DH, smaller strike zone, and lower mound so the five man rotation became the rule to cut down on sore arms.
In the early days teams used 3 and 4 starters. Then pretty much everyone had a four man rotation. In the last 30 years or so every team has converted to five man rotations. The rationale has been to prevent injuries. Who knows maybe some day they’ll go to six, or realize that a five man rotation hasn’t prevented injury and go back to four.
they should be more worried about everyone not named carlson charles. yea CC’s name is pretty funny. anyways, hughes is likely good for a 4 ERA and AJ probably around 4.5 (but who really knows with him?). so basically, no one is above a 3rd starter except CC, with most of them looking more like #4 or worse starters. honestly, they should flip joba and a couple prospects like brandon laird or anyone not banuelos or montero to the astros for wandy rodriguez. a reliable lefty starter to replace pettitte is just what they need. obviously, the yankees have had their fun messing with joba and got tired of it, so maybe it’s time for someone else to make up some joba rules!
Houston just extended Wandy. They’re probably unlikely to trade him . . .
Would Wade turn down Montero and change for Wandy?
it’s carston charles, not carlson.
In the book “Baseball between the numbers” there is a chapter that discusses whether teams should go back to using a 4 man rotation or stick with the current 5 man rotation. It’s a very interesting and well written book. Check it out.
Jeter is most definitely more Jack Lemmon. Rodriguez would be well represented by the sourpuss Walter Matthau. Can we still get Kate Hudson to play as Ann-Margret?
Agreed. Jeter is much more Jack Lemmon.
It’s not that Nova couldn’t make it deep into games, it’s that Girardi consistently yanked him after 70-90 pitches. His average pitch count in games he started was probably below 80, and that’s not because he was struggling.
There’s a big difference between scuffling for a fifth starter as the season goes along and not really having a decent plan to begin with. For instance, the Yanks went into last year with CC/Burnett/Pettite/Vazquez/Hughes. It looked good on paper, 3 of the 5 pitched well, and, like most teams, they made do with the #s 4 and 5. Compare that to CC/Burnett/Hughes/Nova/Mitre.
They had a plan, his name was Cliff Lee. I don’t think that they ever considered they’d need a “plan B”
CC, Lee, Burnett, Hughes probably would have turned in 3 good starts a go-round, it wouldn’t have been amazing, but if you added Pettitte in there you would have had a pretty good rotation.
I still think plan B was Carl Crawford. They just weren’t prepared for Plan C.
Pettitte missed almost 2 months last year and started only 21 games. Vazquez was horrible, as was Hughes and Burnett from mid-May on.
A bit of a bounce back/consistency from AJ and Hughes, and with Phelps waiting in the wings, and perhaps Pettitte as well, and the Yankees may get more production from their starters than last year
Nice article breaking down WAR for the Yankees rotation over the last 5 yrs. Perhaps now fans will understand that it is not a time to panic. They have been going this route for the last few years and have had success overall.
I think pitching is so hard to find, and clubs are getting better at signing their young pitchers past arbitration; very weak FA pitching classes.
My biggest fear, is that the owners will trump Cashman again, and send Montero and Nunez, and Betances and Brackman for a no 1 pitcher that the Yanks may need, but not for that price.
In 2 years, when many teams will be struggling to find FA pitchers, the Yanks will have a more experienced Hughes, Nova (and even Chamberlain), and personally, I would like to see what the Killer B’s can do, not to mention Noesi and Phelps.
You also have Laird (if Gardner busts) Montero and Romine and maybe even Sanchez (prolly more than 2 yrs away), Nunez, for position players.. I think it is worth competing with the team as it stands than to mortgage the next decade, for one pitcher… even if it is the King.
All the best,
Aaron
Aaron,
I agree with most of what you state except they need to trade some talent every year as needed.
Jesus, The B’s, Sanchez, Nunez, Noesi should be near untouchable as they seem to have very high ceilings. However, they can’t keep everyone and seem to be pretty weak in OF’er depth while Catching and Pitching are the assets.
Romine, Brackman Phelps & Liard are decent replacements but if they could net a viable SP this year I would jump at it. Jesus bat is too worthy & Sanchez seems to have both skill sets with higher projected ceiling at C…so if Romine could net a decent piece, they should do it unless they truely feel that one or two of those guns will be ready come July.
yeah, but this year could get ugly for them. I mean, maybe A-Rod and Tiexiera will have big bouce-back years and the older stars will continue to amaze, and they make the play-offs. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Good article but let’s not rewrite history.
Javy was the #4 coming out of ST & Hughes had that 170 +/- inning limit. AJ as #2 & Javy as #4 did not do much to help matters and Pettitte as the #3 missed more time than anyone would of liked.
In 2011, it seems that Mitre will be the #5 unless Pettitte returns or a trade occurs. Having one unproven in Nova and a rag arm coffee Joe favorite seems to have everyone worried. However, with perhaps the best bullpen ever will overcome those shortfalls as now Joba or Drob can be used in high leverage 6-7 innings jams versus sending CHoP, Moseley or Gaudin in from the pen.
This could work for the season if AJ & the bats perform but likely will mean a early exit come October unless a viable SP arrives or develops.
Red Sox have a darn good #5:
Lester
Bucholtz
Beckett
Lackey
Dice K
Sure there are questions about the last 3 but this is not a sitaution where they are dredging around hoping to find something that sticks. If those 5 are healthy, that’s the rotation and the #5 is a #3 on many MLB teams, and the #2 on a few
“…the #5 is a #3 on many MLB teams, and the #2 on a few”
I think you’re overrating Dice-K. He’s posted an 82 and a 93 ERA+ in the last two seasons. Yeah, he’s better than average as a #5 — but let’s not get carried away. His career 4.3 BB/9 is not offset by a career 8.3 K/9.
His 1.2 WAR in 25 starts last season doesn’t even match the 1.7 predicted for Nova in 2011. So one could argue that if Pettitte does return and Nova ends up as the Yanks #5, the Yanks have the better #5.