The Yankees Rotation: Surviving on a Shaky Plan B

Rehabbing a partially torn UCL with rest was an unconventional route for the Yankees and Masahiro Tanaka since the discovery of his injury last July, and there was always the possibility that it simply wouldn’t work, with the right-hander having to go under the knife at some point. While that exact situation has yet to be realized, here we are in early May with Tanaka on the indefinite-day DL due to forearm and wrist issues. As we know, forearm injuries are a big red flag, especially when your elbow is already a little balky.

Still, the Yankees have managed to cope without Tanaka so far, putting the 25-year-old Chase Whitley into the rotation: Whitley has a 0.75 ERA/1.53 FIP, 20.4 K-BB%, and 1.08 WHIP in two starts. That’s a tiny sample, and we would be remiss if we didn’t cast a lot of doubt on his ability to keep up anything near that sort of performance, but it now bears some looking into, as do the Yankees’ plans should they hit any other bumps in the road regarding their rotation (spoiler: they almost surely will).

How good has the Yankees rotation been so far this season? Great, actually. Here’s the ERA / FIP of the starters for all 30 clubs so far this season (mouse over the chart for interactivity):

The Yankees are fifth in FIP, showing how great a surprise they’ve been this year, driven mainly by Michael Pineda. As we’ll see, that level of success in the future is dependent on a lot of things lining up.

First, let’s take a look at Whitley. He couldn’t stick in the rotation last year, eventually moving to a relief role, but he has the arsenal of a starter: fastball, slider, and changeup. I’ll say this: more people would know Chase Whitley’s name if he had a fastball that matched his secondary stuff. His slider, always an average offering, is a little different this year (he’s taken almost four MPH off of it compared to 2014, and it has an inch more vertical drop), though it’s still a fly ball pitch with not a ton of depth. It’s been good this year, but the jury is still out on whether that can be sustained. His changeup is the real prize: last year, it would’ve placed in the top-10 of swinging strike rates among starters had he qualified. At its best, it looks like this:

That looks pretty good. Will Whitley be this incredible moving forward? Of course not. But there’s reason to believe in him if he keeps his walks down, doesn’t get victimized by home runs on his fastball, and his secondary offerings remain effective. You could say that about most pitchers, to be fair, but Whitley probably has the chops to stick in the rotation. In short, he’s the type of guy who doesn’t wow you with raw stuff, but he can be really handy when you’re in a pinch. And the Yankees are in a pinch.

Let’s go over the mainstays. CC Sabathia, who a lot of people are talking about (and not for the best reasons), seems to be showing his age in his return from major knee surgery last year. He’s continued his recent trend of being prone to home runs, as his fastball velocity remains in the upper-80s, but he is likely better than what he’s shown so far. His FIP is a more palatable 4.25 than his 5.45 ERA, though his elevated home run rate is at the level of recent years with the Yankees, making his 3.68 xFIP most likely an unattainable mirage. He’s owed 50 million dollars on his contract after this year, so he’s not going anywhere unless he gets injured again, and nobody wants that.

Next up is Nathan Eovaldi. The splitter, one we thought might carry him to the strikeouts that befit the strength of his arm, has often come and gone. That’s usual for a new pitch, and to his credit, Eovaldi hasn’t ditched it. When the splitter is good, it’s thrown very hard and is nigh unhittable, but he still doesn’t command it well, and that’s likely to continue. If and when he does start commanding it, it’s the key for his next step. Still, the big fastball, slider, and curve combo is one that serves Eovaldi just fine, and at this point his lack of a great strikeout pitch is the smallest issue in this whole discussion.

The main question, of course, is if Pineda can stay healthy. So far so good in that respect, as well as a number of other ones: his 1.4 WAR is tied for the league lead among pitchers, mostly on the back of his incredible 22.4 K-BB%. Pineda has walked three batters in just under 40 innings so far this year — and, though his walks were microscopic in 2014 as well (2.4%), he didn’t have a 24% strikeout rate coupled with a 54% ground ball rate last season. It’s early, but now he does have those things (due in large part to the filthy new changeup he flashes), and pitchers with high ground ball rates who strikeout a batter an inning and don’t walk anyone usually find success.

Finally, there’s Adam Warren, the utility tool in the Yankees pitching plans. Simply put, he’s a stopgap option in a rotation with at least two of them, and his raw stuff has taken the expected step back now that he’s been stretched out as a starter. His velocity is down (from around 94 to just under 92) along with his strikeout rate (12.6% this season), and his walk rate has reverted to pre-2014 levels (9%). Warren is a spot starter who has been given a slot in the rotation.

We can’t predict if pitchers are going to break down, but the Yankees are incredibly dependent on the health of their current starters holding. They’ve already installed two former relievers into their rotation, and fortunately, one of them appears to have the stuff to succeed. What if Pineda or Sabathia go down? That’s more likely than we probably want to believe given their recent histories, and the Yankees find themselves very thin when it comes to options if that proves to be the case.

Ivan Nova is due back from Tommy John surgery in the early part of the summer, but there’s no guarantee about his durability or performance; Chris Capuano is working back from a quad injury suffered in spring training, and the same could be said of him as of Nova; finally, the farm system lacks great options, as they’re either too undeveloped (Luis Severino) or not highly regarded (Bryan Mitchell).

The Yankees will keep walking the tightrope until the time comes when they’re forced to make a move. Do they want any part of the decade-long Cole Hamels sweepstakes? Do they take a flier on a waiver wire retread? Do they call up Mitchell and hope he survives? These aren’t good options to have to turn to, but they’re the only ones they currently have.

A positive for the Yankees: they’ve played the hardest schedule out of any team in the majors so far, and they’re 17-11. That could be important down the stretch, when they get a slate of weaker opponents. Much will depend not only on how they react to an injury or a serious downturn in performance, but where they are in the standings when it happens: if it’s August and they’re in first, the strategy might be different than if someone goes down in June when they’re a number of games back. Until then, the Yankees are crossing their fingers, hoping the shaky line holds.