The Yankees Sign Gio Gonzalez for Minimal Risk, Money
Back in 2011, the Yankees had a lot of fun after signing two aging starters to minor league contracts, when they brought on Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. Colon was deemed to be done by many. He went so far as to get a stem cell injection in his shoulder to give it another go. Garcia had a so-so season in 2010 and was working with significantly diminished stuff from his prime, but the two combined for 4.8 WAR, helping the Yankees on the way to a division title. Eight years later, New York has signed Gio Gonzalez to a minor league deal. He will earn $3 million if he reaches the big leagues, with incentives based on games started. He has the ability to opt-out on April 20 should he not receive a major league assignment. The circumstances that led to signing Gonzalez now, and Colon and Garcia then, are different, but the best-case scenario might be the same: big bang for the buck from a veteran arm.
Normally, there are five starting pitchers in a set rotation; two of the Yankees’ are injured this spring. Luis Severino, the staff ace, has an inflamed rotator cuff and is expected to be out until May. CC Sabathia is recovering from angioplasty and right knee surgery, and is projected to return sometime in April. That leaves two spots open beyond the cast of James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and J.A. Happ.
The Yankees already have depth arms with major league starting experience in Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Luis Cessa. German and Cessa in particular are having pretty good springs, but we all know that spring training can be a bit of a mirage. Those three combined for 1.8 WAR last year, which isn’t inspiring. But they are young and have shown flashes of promise, so it is possible that they could break out this year. For now, they are talented question marks. And even if the Yankees decide to carry two of the three, they would still face issues when it comes to rotation depth. As we’ve seen from the 2016 Dodgers, anything could happen to human beings who throw baseballs for living.
Enter Gio Gonzalez, a former first round pick by the White Sox in the 2004 draft. After stints with the White Sox, Phillies, and Athletics, Gonzalez found a long-term home in Washington D.C., where he spent 6.5 seasons as a consistent presence in the Nationals’ rotation. After pitching with the Brewers for the second half of 2018, the lefty became a free agent.
Gonzalez is still a competent major league starter, but his 2018 indicated that things could be trending the wrong way.
| Year | K% | BB% | K-BB% | FIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22.70% | 9.60% | 13.20% | 3.93 | 4.24 |
| 2018 | 19.80% | 10.70% | 9.10% | 4.16 | 4.44 |
Along with his age, that recent performance probably also cost him some suitors in the offseason. A pitcher approaching his mid-30s with diminishing strikeout and walk rates isn’t really a top commodity. Still, it’s a sign of how dire the free agent market has been for players outside of the top tier that a guy with Gonzalez’s credentials remained unsigned until mid-March. You can’t scoff at a major league starter who was worth 2.0 WAR a year prior — that kind of production warrants a spot. But Gonzalez says that the Yankees offer was the only one he received this offseason. Gonzalez has proven to be an inning-eating workhorse. From 2015 to 2018, he threw 725.0 innings, good for 17th among all starting pitchers. Dallas Keuchel (14th on the list with 750.1 IP) is now the only one in the top 20 currently without a team. The Yankees are projected to rely on an ample number of innings from their mega-bullpen, but if Gonzalez were to make the team and can absorb innings like he has in the past, it can only help the Yankees — both in the rotation and with the bullpen’s workload.
There are more reasons to think Gonzalez could still contribute in 2019. Looking at his 2018 Statcast data, there are a couple things I want to emphasize. It is evident that, besides curveball spin, much of Gonzalez’s 2018 season left something to be desired. His average exit velocity (86.9 mph, 70th percentile) and his hard hit percentage (34.3%, 56th percentile), however, are a bit more reassuring. Those figures aren’t exceptional, but they are better than average. Here’s how Gio Gonzalez stacks up against the rest of the Yankee rotation regulars:
| Pitcher | Exit Velocity | Hard Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Gonzalez | 56th percentile | 70th percentile |
| Luis Severino | 35th percentile | 55th percentile |
| CC Sabathia | 98th percentile | 97th percentile |
| JA Happ | 35th percentile | 58th percentile |
| James Paxton | 9th percentile | 3rd percentile |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 39th percentile | 26th percentile |
First off, holy CC Sabathia. Secondly, Gonzalez is second on the list in terms of both exit velocity and hard hit rate. Now, it doesn’t mean that Gonzalez will thrive. I mean, look at Paxton. He ranks towards the bottom on both scores, but he is still an excellent pitcher. As for Gonzalez, the numbers give reason to believe that he can be serviceable this season, despite his well-documented decline. He also gave up a lower-than-average barrel rate (5.8%, as opposed to 6.1% league average). In an offense-friendly venue like Yankee Stadium, that can only be a plus.
Additionally, as our own Devan Fink pointed out, Gonzalez is projected to maintain a 2.0 WAR/200 IP pace from all three major projection systems. Take projection systems for what they are — a projection — but those numbers don’t come out of nowhere. It’s a testament to what kind of pitcher he has been over the last few years.
Because it is unlikely that he will be ready for Opening Day and has the ability to opt out of the deal, this could end up being a short stint. Gonzalez could find himself stashed in the minors if some combination of German, Cessa, and Loaisiga are doing well in the big league rotation (or in an opener role), and choose to opt out. Or the Yankees could decide that he’s the best option and take it from there. For New York, this signing comes with little risk. They got another guy who’s been a reliable workhorse and a sure rotation talent for a low cost. If the Yankees get a pitcher who can produce around 2 WAR for $3 million plus incentives, that’s a steal. If he doesn’t work out, they’ll rely on other pitchers further down the depth chart and wait until Severino and Sabathia come back.
Right now, the situation is full of question marks: How ready is Gonzalez? How will he look once he’s ready? Will there be factors out of his control that will determine if he makes the Yankees’ rotation? While Gonzalez might not be too high on the pecking order, if the Yankees like what they see, he’ll get a shot. And as I mentioned, they made the minor league signings of Colon and Garcia into useful rotation additions not too long ago.
Sung-Min Kim writes for River Ave. Blues, and has written for MLB.com, The Washington Post, Baseball America and VICE Sports. Besides baseball writing, he is also passionate about photojournalism and radio broadcasting. Follow him on Twitter @sung_minkim.
Gio is good for around thirty starts and is worth 2+ war most years,and that he got a minor league deal is a joke. The Mets really should have gone hard after him because as strong as the top of the rotation is the back end is pretty weak, and they have no starting pitching depth. Vargas is bad and Matz hasn’t been good since 2016 and is hurt most years and is a five inning pitcher so signing Gio and moving Vargas to the bullpen as the long man made all the sense in the world to everyone but the Mets.
Is Jordan Montgomery out all year from TJ recovery?
He’s probably out till June or July at least. And the Yanks have no idea what to expect from him once he is back.
It is really amazing that nobody wanted this guy until now.
-The A’s have Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Jesus Luzardo, and Frankie Montas as the only starters projected for more than 100 innings this year, and Fiers is the only one projected for a full year’s work.
-The Rays have two real starters, period, and Tyler Glasnow, who is a something. You think they couldn’t use Gio to eat some innings?
-The Mets are relying on Jason Vargas as the 5th starter, and they should know better than to rely on everyone to stay healthy
-The D-Backs are planning to stick Matt Andriese (who is better as a reliever) into the rotation until Taijuan Walker comes back, but of course, it’s likely Walker will be a replacement for whatever starter is hurt and not Andriese
-The Blue Jays, who aren’t exactly likely to contend but also seem to want to avoid embarassment, took chances on Clay Bucholz, Matt Shoemaker, and Clayton Richard
-Even the White Sox, who are projected to be useless this year, traded a semi-prospect for the right to pay Ivan Nova $9M, and gave Ervin Santana a similar deal to the one Gio is getting from NYY.
Heck, there are teams that might have given him more money as a reliever!
Hey! The Mets are also relying on Seth Lugo maybe coming back from the bullpen(and maybe Robert Gsellman)! So….yeah, jot that down.
Really confused why the first 3 teams who hope to contend and have no starting pitching depth (or really even 5 decent options to begin with) couldn’t give a $3M guarantee and hand shake that he has a good faith shot at being in the rotation until he proves otherwise.
You could double that and it would still look like a team-friendly deal.
I’ll make the case that the parameters of this deal ($3 million guaranteed, plus incentives of $300k per start up to a total possible value of $12 million) are similar to a straightforward guaranteed deal in the $6 to $8 million range.
What’s more favorable from the Yankees’ perspective – and a bit puzzling why Gonzalez ended up with them rather than one of the other teams that you listed – are that it’s a minor league deal and that other teams that you’ve listed seem more likely to have him start 25-30 games.
The minor-league deal isn’t that puzzling. We’re a week out from opening day, and Gonzalez hasn’t pitched in ST. He needs time in AAA to build up, and this is the only way to do that without triggering roster complications.
The Padres also make sense as a team that could have been in the mix for Gonzalez.
Or, maybe Gio wanted to play for a contender?
It was explicitly stated that he said it was the only offer he received.
That’s a very grey area though. There’s a world of negotiation that falls short of a formal offer. His agent could have had discussions with a dozen teams that either weren’t prepared to offer what Gio wanted, or weren’t the sort of club he wanted to play for. So sure, the only offer. But I can’t believe the only interest.
I wonder, seeing the Yankee’s package of base plus incentives, if someone with that foreknowledge couldn’t have just signed him to a ML contract for, say, $6M flat.
If a GM saw the news and didn’t slap themselves on the thigh, they should lose their job. I could only imagine that teams may have passed on him because they thought he was seeking a much larger contract, and that Gio’s camp didn’t try to get any other team to offer a small ML contract.
Gonzalez is a Boras client, so it’s a very reasonable guess that he initially went to market with a high contract demand.
Re: German, Loisagna and Cessa “Those three combined for 1.8 WAR last year, which isn’t inspiring. ”
Bit disingenuous since that group pitched 136 IP in 46 games (half of them starts) as the Yankees’ spot starter/mop-up duty… while Gio Gonzalez had 2.1 WAR in 32 starts and 171 IP. If you simply extrapolated the young guys to 171 IP, they’d have 2.2 WAR in 2018. Not amazing, but not terrible.
Not necessarily.
1) They averaged 4.5 innings per start vs 5.3 for Gonzalez. Much easier to be effective in a shorter stint than in a longer one. And also puts less pressure on the bullpen.
2) Looking at their splits, both Cessa and German were far worse as startes than as relievers. Loaisiga was better as a starter than a reliever. So including their stats as relievers likely overvalues them as starters.
3) For anyone that values an ERA based model of WAR, BR gives them a combined -0.2 WAR last year, even including their relief appearances. Gonzalez had 2.2 BR pitching WAR.
I think the Yankees will go with Cessa/German to start the year and if they do well, they let Gio opt out, if they struggle they call up Gio until they get the rest of their starters back. I do think that they’re better off going with Cessa and German, especially if they pair one or both of them with an opener, but there’s no such thing as too much SP depth, no team has ever said “we have enough pitching”, so I like the move, certainly better than what most Yankees fans on twitter wanted them to do-sign Keuchel to an inflated deal when they only need to cover maybe a month’s worth of starts.