This Ain’t Team Entropy, but We’ve Got Some Races To Untie

Last year, after a trade deadline sell-off, the Tigers snagged a Wild Card spot thanks to the combination of a late surge and a gruesome collapse by the Twins. This year, it’s the Tigers who are in danger of fumbling away a playoff berth, as they’ve lost 11 out of 15 since September 3, while the Guardians have won 15 out of 18. Meanwhile, the Mets have lost 12 out of 19 this month, slipping from the third NL Wild Card spot to being on the outside looking in due to the tiebreaker with the Reds.

Particularly with that tiebreaker looming so large, with six days to go in the regular season, it’s time for another look at what’s at stake. This used to be Team Entropy territory, but alas in the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, Major League Baseball and the players’ union traded the potential excitement and scheduling mayhem created by on-field tiebreakers and sudden-death Wild Card games in exchange for a larger inventory of playoff games. The 12-team, two-bye format was designed to reward the top two teams in each league by allowing them to bypass the possibility of being eliminated in a best-of-three series. Those bye teams are just 6-6 under the new format, but across a larger sample going back to 1981, research by Dan Szymborski, freshly updated for this article, shows that in matchups where with one playoff team had a layoff of four or more days while its opponent had two or fewer days off, the team with more rest went 27-13 in its next game. It’s an advantage.

Anyway, as we head into the season’s final days, here’s a look at the various scenarios still in play when it comes to playoff seeding, and how the tiebreaker rules could determine who plays on into October and who goes home.

Byes

The Brewers (95-62) and Phillies (92-64) have clinched their respective divisions and all but sewn up the first and second seeds, respectively; since Milwaukee won the season series between the two teams, 4-2, Philadelphia would have to overtake the Brewers in order to capture the top seed. Whether or not that happens, the Dodgers (88-68) — who lost their season series against both of those teams — have only a faint chance of capturing a bye, 1.4% according to our Playoff Odds. They have clinched a playoff berth, own a 2 1/2-game lead over the Padres (86-71), and hold the tiebreaker against San Diego by dint of their 9-4 season-series record; Los Angeles’ magic number to clinch the division is three. At this point, it’s mathematically impossible for the Padres to capture one of the top two seeds.

The picture is much murkier in the AL, where all three division leaders are ahead by three games or fewer, and where only the Blue Jays (90-66) have clinched a playoff berth. Odds-wise, the Mariners (87-69) have the strongest shot at a bye (94.9%), followed by the Blue Jays (86.1%), with the Yankees, who are 88-68, two games back, having stronger odds (13.8%) than the Tigers (85-71, 3.7%). I’ll untangle the various scenarios in the context of the individual divisions.

AL East

I may have been premature in invoking Yogi Berra last week, since the Blue Jays have since lost four out of six, while the Yankees have won five out of six. Toronto does hold the season-series advantage, 8-5. The Jays close out the season by hosting the Red Sox (Sept. 23–25) and Rays (Sept. 26–28); their .515 strength-of-schedule rating is the second highest of any AL contender. The Yankees, by contrast, host the White Sox (Sept. 23–25) and Orioles (Sept. 26–28); their .445 strength-of-schedule rating is the second lowest of any AL contender.

The Red Sox (85-71) have a 0.1% shot at winning the division. For that to happen, they would have to sweep the Blue Jays in Toronto and then the Tigers at home (Sept. 26–28); meanwhile, the Blue Jays would also have to drop all three to the Rays, making what would still be a 7-6 season-series advantage against the Red Sox moot. Under that scenario, the Yankees would have to go 3-3 or worse, as the Red Sox hold the tiebreaker against New York via their 9-4 head-to-head record. I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Though neither the Yankees nor Red Sox have clinched playoff berths, their odds of doing so are higher than any AL team outside the East besides the Mariners, with New York’s odds rounding up to 100% (call it “greater than 99.949%”) and Boston’s at 90.4%.

AL Central

This one wasn’t even on my radar last week! As recently as September 3, the Tigers were 81-60, 10 games ahead of the Guardians (69-69 at the time). Since then, the Tigers have gone 4-11, while the Guardians have gone 15-3, trimming Detroit’s division lead to a single game. The two teams face off for a three-game series in Cleveland starting tonight, with the Guardians — who are 6-4 against the Tigers thus far — needing just one win to clinch the season series. As noted, the Tigers play the Red Sox during the season’s final weekend, while the Guardians host the Rangers (79-77), who are on the brink of official elimination from contention after losing seven straight. The odds still give the Tigers a 63.3% chance of winning the division, but at this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Guardians were to sneak in there. As Kiri Oler wrote in her piece on the AL Central yesterday, “given that three of Detroit’s last six games are against Cleveland, the error bars on those odds are huge.”

AL West

The Mariners (87-69) and Astros (84-72) went into the weekend tied atop the division, with a three-game series in Houston on tap and Seattle’s 10-game winning streak having just ended. With Cal Raleigh homering twice, the Mariners swept all three games, securing the season series (8-5) and suddenly giving themselves the largest division lead of any AL team. They haven’t clinched a playoff berth yet, but like the Yankees, their odds round up to 100%. They close at home with three against the Rockies (Sept. 23–25) and three against the Dodgers (Sept. 26–28), while the Astros travel to California to face the A’s (Sept. 23–25) and Angels (Sept. 26–28).

NL West

Again, the Dodgers have a 2 1/2-game lead on the Padres, and they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Los Angeles closes out with three-game sets in Arizona (Sept. 23–25) and Seattle. The Padres, who cliched a playoff berth last night with a 5-4 win over the Brewers in extra innings, are home the rest of the way, first for the final two games of a three-game series against the Brewers (Sept. 23–24) and then for three against the Diamondbacks (Sept. 26–28). San Diego is in, but its odds of winning the division are down to 2.3%.

AL Wild Card

The AL playoff picture is now in a seven-to-make-six situation, with each current division leader also reasonably well-positioned if they get bumped out of the top spot. Here’s the big board:

The color-coded cells show whether a season series has been decided, and in whose favor — the first step in breaking a tie between two teams. I mentioned many of these with regards to the division races; note that in all of those cases, the two teams played (or will have played) 13 games against each other, so there’s no need for a second-level tiebreaker. When it comes to the Wild Card, however, most contenders have played six games against the teams outside their divisions, leaving open the possibility of 3-3 splits. In those cases, for two-way ties the second-level tiebreaker is based on intradivisional records, which I’ve also included above. So, a Yankees-Guardians tie would favor Cleveland, which has the best record within its division of any team here. If the Yankees and Astros were to tie for a spot, based upon their current records, New York would get it, but Houston still has a chance to get the upper hand given it has six remaining games against divisional opponents, while the Yankees only have three.

If two tied teams finish with the same intradivisional record as well as a head-to-head split, the next tiebreaker is interdivisional records, but since those would also need to be the same as well, the next tiebreaker after that is “highest winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games,” with an additional game added at the front end until the tie is broken. Both teams will have played 114 intraleague games (the other 48 are interleague) and so the tiebreakers would come down to their records over their last 57 games against AL opponents. It turns out that it actually doesn’t matter what the next six days hold when it comes to untangling this for the Yankees and Astros, since through the first 51 of those games — dating back to July 1 for both teams — New York is 29-22, while Houston is just 18-33.

The other head-to-head splits that would require second-level tiebreakers involve one team currently in a Wild Card spot and the other leading its division; for those to matter, the leaders would have to slip out of first place or the Wild Card team would have to take over first, in which case the records would be used to determine seeding. If that’s the case, the Mariners have clinched the advantage over the Red Sox, since at best, Boston can go 33-19 in intradivision play. The Red Sox need to win all three games against the Tigers to own that advantage. The Guardians have the upper hand against the Blue Jays if it comes to that.

As for three-way ties, if the three teams don’t all have identical records against one another (which would be the case here), but one club has a better record against both of the others (as would be the case for the Red Sox in a scenario involving any two teams from among the Yankees, Astros, and Guardians), that team would claim the spot; any other permutations where that would be the case involve a current division leader winding up in the Wild Card pool, and there are some where that team would have the advantage in both (the Tigers own advantages over the Yankees and Astros, for one). For three-way ties where that’s not the case, the teams are ranked by combined head-to-head records against the other two teams. If the Yankees, Astros, and Guardians tie, the Guardians (7-5 against the other two) would have the advantage over the Yankees (6-6) and Astros (5-7). Since there would actually be two spots on the line instead of one under that scenario, once the Guardians are removed from consideration, the tie between the Yankees and Astros would, as above, come down to intradivisional records, which right now favor the Yankees.

Supposing the three division leaders each hold on and the other four teams finish tied, they would first be ranked by head-to-head records against the other three. In that case, the Red Sox (17-8) would have the top ranking and would get the top Wild Card spot. The other three teams would then be unknotted via three-way tiebreaker rules, which is the case I just explained above, with the Guardians getting the second spot, and then Yankees/Astros resolved by intradivisional records.

NL Wild Card

The Cubs (88-68) have clinched a Wild Card berth and have a 2 1/2-game lead over the Padres for the no. 4 seed. The Padres have clinched at least a Wild Card berth, with a very slight shot at the NL West. San Diego has a 5 1/2-game cushion over the Reds and Mets (both 80-76), with the Diamondbacks (79-77) one game behind them, so for the sake of simplicity, let’s just say the Padres will get either the fourth or fifth seed and leave them out of the discussion for the final spot. The Giants and Cardinals (both 77-80) are 3 1/2 games out; both teams are barely fogging a mirror, but with St. Louis beating San Francisco last night, I had to add the Cards to the big board; we now have five teams vying for one spot, and that doesn’t even include the Marlins, who at four games out are still mathematically alive after winning six straight and nine of their last 10. I’m not going to factor in Miami here; in the extremely unlikely event that the Fish go on a run and make this thing close, we’ll certainly cover that chaos as it unfolds. Oy vey:

The Reds and Mets entered Monday with identical records but on very different paths. The Mets began September at 73-64 but have gone 7-12 since, the worst record of any contender in either league over that span. Meanwhile, the Reds, 69-68 at that point, have gone 11-8, including five straight wins, to move into a tie. Had the season ended Monday, the Reds would have gotten the Wild Card berth because they won the season series, 4-2. They also hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, so if those three teams tie, it’s the Reds who will play on.

Note that from among these teams, the only games remaining that could impact the season-series advantage involve the Giants and Cardinals, who play two more in San Francisco, tonight and tomorrow. To paraphrase Baseball Prospectus’ Jeffrey Paternostro, Giants/Cardinals is God’s way of telling you that you have too many playoff teams.

The Reds host the Pirates for three (Sept. 23–25), then close the season in Milwaukee (Sept. 26–28). The Mets visit the Cubs (Sept. 23–25) and Marlins (Sept. 26–28). The Diamondbacks, as noted above, host the Dodgers for three, then visit San Diego for three. After the Giants finish with the Cardinals, they’ll host the Rockies (Sept. 26–28), while the Cardinals travel to face the Cubs.

Based on the color-coding above, four tiebreakers remain unsettled. The Reds and Giants split their six games, and if the season ended today, they’d have the next-level tiebreaker on the basis of the stronger intradivisional record. On that same basis, the Diamondbacks currently have the upper hand against both the Mets and Cardinals. If the Cardinals and Giants do wind up splitting — sure, why not? — St. Louis has a leg up when it comes to finishing with the better intradivisional record.

As for the other three-way tie permutations, the first step in untangling them is, again, combined head-to-head against the other two two teams The late addition of the Cardinals into this increases the number of permutations from six to 10, so thanks for that:

• The Reds (7-5) would beat out the Mets (6-6) and Giants (5-7).
• The Reds (7-5) would beat out the Diamondbacks (9-10) and Giants (9-10).
• The Reds (8-4) would beat out the Mets (5-7) and Diamondbacks (5-7).
• The Mets (7-6) would beat out the Reds (10-9) and Cardinals (9-11).
• The Mets (9-4) would beat out the Cardinals (5-6) and Giants (3-7) regardless of the outcome of the remaining Cardinals-Giants games.
• The Mets (7-5) would beat out the Diamondbacks (10-9) and Giants (8-11).
• The Mets (8-5) would beat out the Diamondbacks (6-6) and Cardinals (5-8).
• The Cardinals (10-9) and Reds (10-9) would have the edge on the Diamondbacks (6-7), with the Cardinals then having the head-to-head edge on the Reds.
• The Cardinals (10-7) would beat out the Reds (9-10) and Giants (4-6) even if they lose the final two games to San Francisco.
• The Cardinals (6-4) would beat out the Diamondbacks (10-9) and Giants (7-10) if they win at least one of their two remaining games against San Francisco. If they lose both, the Diamondbacks would be the winner.

Got all that? It will be on the test, people. In the event of a four-way tie, the principle is the same, with combined head-to-head records within the scrum:

• The Reds (11-7) would beat out the Mets (9-9), Diamondbacks (12-13), and Giants (11-14).
• The Reds (14-11) would beat out the Mets (10-9), Cardinals (12-14), and Diamondbacks (8-10).
• The Mets (12-7) would beat out the Diamondbacks (13-12), Cardinals (8-9), and Giants (9-14) regardless of the outcome of the remaining Cardinals-Giants games.
• The Cardinals (13-10) would beat out the Reds (13-12), Diamondbacks (12-13), and Giants (10-13) regardless of the outcome of the remaining Cardinals-Giants games, because if they lose both, they still hold the season series advantage against Cincinnati.
• The Mets (11-8) would beat out the Cardinals (12-10), Reds (13-12), and Giants (7-10) unless the Cardinals win both of their remaining games, in which case St. Louis would have the edge (.583 winning percentage vs. the Mets’ .579).

A five-way tie? I’m not even sure it’s mathematically possible but, you guessed it, the rankings start with combined head-to-head records, in which case the winner would be… the Mets (14-11), beating out the Reds (17-14), Cardinals (15-15), Diamondbacks (15-16) and Giants (12-17) regardless of the outcome of the remaining Cardinals-Giants games.

Whew, that was chaotic, if not in a Team Entropy-flavored way. If you need a reminder that this isn’t entirely abstract, just remember that last year the Diamondbacks (89-73) lost out on a spot to the Braves and Mets (also 89-73) because they lost their season series against both. For all of these scenarios, it’s still better if these teams settle things on the field instead of by math, but sometimes it crumbles that way, cookie-wise.