Tim Hudson Heads West, Joins Giants
As first reported by the Bay Area Sports Guy, the Giants are going to sign former Braves hurler Tim Hudson to a two year, $23 million contract. This is slightly higher than the FanGraphs Crowd’s expected price of $17 million over two years, but still in the same ballpark, essentially. And there are plenty of reasons to like this deal for the Giants.
Yes, Tim Hudson is heading into his age-38 season, and missed almost the entire second half of the season due to a broken ankle. And yes, the 108 ERA- he posted last year was the highest of his career. There are going to be assumptions that these factors suggest that Hudson is headed for serious decline. Don’t believe it.
Here’s how opponents have hit against Tim Hudson over the last 10 years.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 0.263 | 0.318 | 0.366 | 0.302 |
| 2005 | 0.261 | 0.332 | 0.408 | 0.324 |
| 2006 | 0.270 | 0.340 | 0.435 | 0.333 |
| 2007 | 0.256 | 0.309 | 0.352 | 0.291 |
| 2008 | 0.237 | 0.296 | 0.368 | 0.290 |
| 2009 | 0.293 | 0.346 | 0.422 | 0.340 |
| 2010 | 0.226 | 0.299 | 0.343 | 0.286 |
| 2011 | 0.233 | 0.296 | 0.331 | 0.279 |
| 2012 | 0.243 | 0.304 | 0.361 | 0.293 |
| 2013 | 0.242 | 0.299 | 0.363 | 0.292 |
The inflated ERA was simply a product of poor sequencing; hitters didn’t actually hit Hudson any harder last year than they had previously. For comparison, here’s how Hudson’s .292 wOBA allowed compares to other notable free agent pitchers on the market:
Tim Hudson: .292
Ervin Santana: .294
Ubaldo Jimenez: .305
Ricky Nolasco: .306
Matt Garza: .312
Bronson Arroyo: .318
Scott Kazmir: .323
wOBA allowed includes the results of fluctuating variables like hits on balls in play and home runs per fly ball, so one shouldn’t take a pitcher’s wOBA allowed as gospel about their future performance, but it does essentially reject the idea that Hudson was showing signs of significant decline last year. This is a case where ERA is essentially misleading, and it should be mostly discarded. Tim Hudson, in 2013, looked just like Tim Hudson in nearly any other recent season.
Even more encouraging, Hudson’s strikeout rate bounced back after a decline in 2012, so while he’s still not a big time strikeout guy, that potential indicator of eroding stuff simply doesn’t point in the direction of Hudson getting worse. He’s a strike-throwing ground ball guy who gets the occasional whiff, and that skillset seems to have not changed much at all as he’s gotten older.
That doesn’t mean he won’t get worse over the next two years. In fact, we should expect 38-year-old Hudson to be worse than 37-year-old Hudson, because eventually, skills do start to erode. But Hudson can decline from where he’s been and still be a very effective starting pitcher. Steamer projects Hudson as an above average starting pitcher for next season, expected to accumulate +2.1 WAR in 153 innings pitched. If he stays healthy and gets to something closer to 180, that would put him as something closer to a +2.5 WAR pitcher. He’s not an ace anymore, but he’s the definition of a mid-rotation starter.
$11.5 million per year for an above average pitcher nearing age-40 isn’t any kind of huge steal, but Hudson’s a better bet for the short term than either Dan Haren or Bronson Arroyo would have been, and the cost of acquiring either would not likely have been much cheaper. When picking between these kinds of pitchers, Hudson appears to be the least risky of the three from a performance standpoint. He might be the most risky from a health perspective, but I’d rather bet on talent than bet on health, given the unpredictable nature of things like breaking your ankle on a play at first base.
No pitcher without his warts is going to sign a two year deal anymore, so when you’re shopping for a short term rotation upgrade, you have to pick and choose which flaws you prefer. The Giants chose to bet on a quality pitcher recovering from a fluke injury and continuing his 15 year run as one of the game’s most effective and consistent starters. I’d take that over a bet on Bronson Arroyo’s magical hit prevention or Dan Haren’s xFIP being more predictive than his recent results.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Hopefully he leaves the south, THE RIGHT WAY
Hudson did pass the eye test last year until the season-ending injury. If he’s healthy, this is a good deal for the Giants.
More noteworthy, this is smarter than the average Brian Sabean signing.
Two Rings!!
I love the Giants and I am beyond sick of others rushing to say this whenever anybody is slightly critical of anything the team does.
Well, do you expect every single move to work out? Where I come from, the goal is to win championships. Sabean has built two championship teams this decade… how many other GM’s can put that on a resume? None, as far as I know. Sure, it’s fair to be critical of a team, but to question the intelligence of a GM who’s had the success Sabean has with SF.. well, that’s not very intelligent at all.
And Eli Manning is the best QB of the past 7 years! Who else has led their team to 2 championships?
@CoveChatter apparently you’ve never heard of this guy named Theo Epstein…he sort of ended the Red Sox drought in 2004, and then won again in 2007.
EricR,
“….smarter than the average Sabean signing.”
I am beyond sick of cheap shot comments like that. That is not a “slight” criticism of a move he made. That is a snarky indictment of Brian Sabean as a GM.
Brian Sabean is the best GM the Giants have had since John McGraw and it’s not particularly close. He took over a team that had a losing record in 5 of the 6 previous seasons. In his, what, now 16 year tenure they have had just 5 losing seasons while 5 division championships, 3 NL Pennants and 2 WS Championships.
You don’t put a record like that together if your average move stinks.
Posey, Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Romo, Wilson, Sandoval, Sanchez (when he was decent). The Giants obviously have drafted and developed a pretty good core to work around.
Sabean’s signings, on the other hand, have been somewhat hit in miss by objective measurements. Saying that Sabean is a good GM because the Giants have had success as a team is the same as saying a starting pitcher is good because he has more wins, or that Miguel Cabrera is the MVP because his team made the playoffs. Sabean may have helped, but you can’t just look at the results and conclude that the process was good.
Success in the playoffs is even worse, because so much of that is up to chance. People wouldn’t be saying this about Sabean if the Giants were knocked out in the NLDS in 2010 and 2012, but that could have happened very easily, because anything can happen in the playoffs. The Giants don’t look nearly as good by regular season wins.
Bip,
Sabean Signings: Vogelsong, Torres, Blanco, Huff, Ross, Burrell.
Sabean Trades: Pagan, Scutaro, Ramirez, Lopez, Cabrera.
People like to harp on the ones that weren’t so good, but conveniently forget the good ones that contributed directly to the Rings.
He’s a very good GM who is 1 championship away from being a shoe-in for the HOF.
Oops! I forgot the Pence trade.
@DrBGiantsfan Some of those, like Scutaro, Huff, Torres and Vogelsong are guys who seemed to have career years right when the Giants needed them to. If Sabean and his analytics team saw the potential for that to happen and signed them based on that information, that’s a credit to them, but from an outsider’s perspective, I don’t know how any of them could have seen some of those things coming.
I mean Vogelsong hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2006, and was basically a replacement player then. I don’t see how anyone could predict him to throw about 370 innings with a 83 ERA- in his age 34-35 seasons.
Bip – most of these guys are reclamation projects that are targeted but have to fight for the right to play. Its a definite strategy. As is building a bullpen, which Sabean takes a lot of heat for as well. Success in the playoffs depends huge on your pitching staff, and the Giants learned that the hard way. They target that first and then fill in the offense.
Vogelsong was given an opportunity mid-season, he wasn’t trotted out to start the year. The Giants have great pitching coaches in Raggs and Gardner. They have one of the best executives in the game for identifying and coaching pitching in Dick Tidrow.
Most of the Giants signings have been as placeholders, and have been short term. They actually have good discipline on the years on the contract, but make exceptions to land their guys back (Pagan/Scutaro/Affeldt/Casilla all got 1 more year while holding down AAV). Scutaro has already almost earned his contract by WAR score, particularly if you allow for a WAR to cost 7MM instead of the standard 5MM, which some have hinted is the way its going these days.
They can’t seem to develop OFs, so Pence gets his 5/90MM, that has been hashed out already. This Hudson signing, like the Lincecum signing is for more money while holding down the years, because there’s other things coming along. Draft and develop baby. The Giants are lightyears ahead of where snarky saber fans think they are, and they’re a winning organization.
Semperty, 2004 and 2007 weren’t this decade. 2010 and 2012 are.
Sabean is certainly a mixed bag.
But I don’t understand the fairly common position on this site that he should get less credit because of how well the Giants have drafted and developed. That’s a credit to the organization he built, and its ridiculous to act like this was something Sabean lucked into while we give St. Louis and other organizations credit for development successes.
The Giants had an incredible run of success at developing their first round picks into stars which led directly to the core teams that won two World Series.
The playoffs may be a crapshoot, and the 2010 and 2012 Giants, like every other World Series team in history, won in part because of unexpected performances by players having the month of their lives.
But they primarily won because of a young core drafted or internationally signed and developed by Sabean: Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Posey, Sandoval, Wilson, and Romo, with huge assists from other draftees like Belt and Crawford.
Plus Sabean’s big free agent strength: finding low-risk high-reward pickups that would have been praised had a saber-friendly organization made them (e.g., picking up Burrell off waivers, minor league free agent deals to Uribe and later Blanco).
The saber-narrative about the 2010 and 2012 Giants is no more accurate than the old school narrative that they won because of chemistry / clutchiness / whatever.
And I am sick of hearing people complaining about Sabean while giving a compliment.
And beyond sick that these people who said that the Giants were not going anywhere when the 2009 season was starting up, or when the 2010 season started up, or when they said that 2010 was lucky, or when they said that they weren’t going anywhere in 2012, or when they said that 2012 was lucky too, keep on thinking that they know better than the Giants.
People seem to forget the circumstances behind each type of transaction that a GM can make so I’ll remind them. Signing a player does not mean that you necessarily think that he’s good or even worth the money he is paying him. Too many people worry about being efficient with their spending, not realizing that this is not a hypothetical market economy where you have a ready supply of any commodity you need with beautiful supply and demand curves meeting somewhere in the middle.
So sometimes you need a OF and there is nothing on the market, either free agent or trade market that is particularly palatable. But the orders are in from the owners and they want you to sign someone, like when he had to sign Zito because Magowan wanted him, or they want to win with Barry Bonds still around so you need to go out and get the best player available on the market. Free agency signings are filled with such noise.
However, there is something where Sabean has more control over: trading of his prospects. On that account he has done a masterful job. The prospects traded or released who has gone on to do anything really good are few. Liriano is the best, but his injury history really negates any value he might provide to a team trying to win a championship. Then you have Foulke. Howry. Not really that bad a list. Certainly better than being known for giving up Ethier and CarGon for essentially nothing (Hudson too).
Sabean has identified his best prospects and kept them, and they have been the core of these championship teams. That tells me more about his ability to identify and keep talent than any signing that might not have worked out. Sometimes you need to spend the money and sign a player because you need to field a decent enough team. That doesn’t mean that you are bad at identifying talent.
Welcome to the community, now would you please kindly quit shitting on our streets.
That comment was for DrBGiantsfan…
Thanks for the advice. I’ll consider the source.
What is an average Brian Sabean signing? re-hashing Zito and Rowand for the ten thousandth time?
Giants have a nice bridge to their pitching which is moving to AA Richmond and big tests.
Young Law is going to surprise more than a few, IMO.
He might even surprise in AZ this spring. Show em the numbers Derek, and then the funk.
For a rich team like the Giants, this is not a bad signing, but certainly not a great one. It’s about 50/50 whether the Giants get their money’s worth.
If that’s the case, then I would say this is a perfectly fair contract. 50% chance the player gets the better deal, 50% chance the team gets the better deal.
I think this is a good signing all around.
There is that chance he does really bad, and I guess in that case you could say “the player got the better deal” but it’s a really dense way to look at it. That could be said about literally any deal ever made in the history of baseball.
Seems like a big overpay but Hudson is a great guy and a great competitor.
Reasonable considering that Dempster got 26.5 for two years last offseason at age 36 without the trck record of Hudson.
On just a 2 year deal, Hudson is a solid choice to fill the rotation until the Giants’ top minor league pitchers like Crick and Blackburn are ready. I also like the idea of him mentoring Lincecum given their similar physical stature.
Yes, Ziz. 2-time CY Award Winner Tim Lincecum needs Tim Hudson to mentor him.
I don’t know if Lincecum needs mentoring or not, but in a real sense, the guy who won those two Cy Youngs is gone. Lincecum has shown the last few years that he hasn’t necessarily mastered the art of pitching with his diminished stuff.
Timmy absolutely could use a mentor. He still has a ways to go to figure out how to pitch consistently without his old electric fastball. John Shea of the Chronicle nailed it: http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2013/11/18/tim-hudson-close-to-signing-with-giants/
Yeah, Lincecum certainly hasn’t pitched like a 2 time CY winner since 2011. But as bad as his last two seasons have been, he still has the stuff to be a good to very good pitcher for many more years if he would just make a few adjustments to his pitching approach. Hudson’s pitching style, skill, and history make him the perfect guy to help Lincecum with those adjustments.
Isn’t that what pitching coaches are for? If that’s really the reason that the Giants signed Hudson, they should just probably go ahead and fire their pitching coach.
Justin,
That is a ridiculous take. It’s clearly not the only reason why the Giants signed Hudson and Rags is a terrific pitching coach. The Giants pitchers are well known for giving each other advice and passing along tips to each other. It’s a big part of what won those 2 rings.
From what I hear, a guy may just not click with a certain coach. It isn’t necessarily the coach’s fault, but maybe the pitcher needs it to be presented to him in a different way, or the method that the coach teaches works for some pitchers and not others. I would be surprised if there is any coach out there who would know what to say to any player, regardless of how much their styles differ.
In other words, bringing in another point of view may help Lincecum, and that’s not necessarily an indictment of Righetti, who I hear is very good.
Dave Righetti = Barry Zuckerkorn
they said the same thing regarding randy Johnson and Jonathan Sanchez.
I like the move, especially considering he is coming off a non-throwing injury. It’s not like he hurt an elbow or shoulder, and the innings he saved off his arm may help him this year.
Agreed on Huddy being far from washed up; too bad he couldn’t have finished his career in Atlanta.
I have to quibble, though, with the characterization of $23M being “slightly” more than $17M for the 2-year deal. That’s a fairly whopping 35% difference. If I were offered a 35% increase in pay, for instance, I would not consider it a “slight” raise by any stretch of the imagination.
You’re right that 35% is a substantial difference, but we won’t really get a sense of whether it’s truly an overpay until we start to see the contracts for some of the other FA pitchers like Ubaldo, Garza, Nolasco, etc.
Again, slight does not describe this overpay.
Whey does anyone give a rat’s $%& whether this was an overpay or not? The important part is that he’s the guy they wanted, it was a 2 year deal and does not block the prospects who will be ready in 2016. The Giants have plenty of money to spend. This will in no way prevent them from acquiring other talent to compete with the Dodgers. Overpay is a moot issue here.
How is overpay a moot issue? If payment was no object, the Giants could sign Robinson Cano, who would undoubtedly improve their team. The Giants are not so nearly complete that they can fill all their holes with exactly who they want and have money to spare. Would the Giants not be better with an outfield of Ellsbury, Pence and Pagan? But, being as money is not unlimited, they probably won’t sign Ellsbury.
The GIants have the money to acquire and will acquire the players they need. It’s a moot issue.
Doc, we get that you’re a Giants fan. Every move they make is awesome, every criticism is wrong, and every perceived slight cause for great consternation. Got it.
Yes, maybe you should stop talking for a while there, Champ.
LOL @ Giants getting bid up by the A’s
Lol @ the As’ last 20 years.
Overpay. Hudson has only been with this AAV twice in last nine years.
Inflation.
Worth
My biggest issue is that since 2005, Hudson’s been worth $10M+ twice (according to the value section on his page). I just don’t see Hudson bouncing back to his pre-age-30 seasons.
Well, adjusting for inflation, he reaches that plateau every year except 2009 and 2013, and he was well on his way last year before a freak injury. 11 million is somewhere between 2-2.5 wins on the market (maybe even less, depending on how this offseason plays out). Hudson is a good bet to hit that mark.
I’d take the under on him being worth 4 wins between this year and next.
He was right at 2 wins in 2008, 2010, and 2012. He was under 2 wins in 2009 and 2013. He’s exceeded 2.5 wins just once (2011) in the past 6 years.
Given that you should assume some age related / injury based regression I see a guy with a ceiling of maybe 2.3 WAR. A likely contribution of 1.7 WAR and floor around 1.2 WAR. Year 2 knock a little more off the ceiling the likely contribution.
At the end of the day this isn’t a massive overpay. However, I’m not nearly as optimistic as Dave that this deal comes out as a win for the Giants. I’m guessing that the crowd sourced value is a better reflection of Hudson’s value.
He’s a sinker baller, you have to look deeper than WAR to get a handle on his value. His K rate has never been stellar because he’s always trying to get the ball on the ground (which he does very well) and his FIP Suffers for it. That obviously affects his WAR, but he generally outperforms his peripherals.
Google this phrase: “time value of money”.
Zito, Hudson,… is Mulder available?
You beat me to it. They did have Miggy Tejada for awhile and Giambi is not retired yet. Eric Chavez?
Quite the opposite of the old days where you would see SF products like the Alou bros, Tito Fuentes and Willie Mac try on the green and gold in their twilight days.
A while was 4 months, which was at least 2 months too many. Horrible signing, but easily discarded, Miggy Tejada and his whiny ways. There is always… Mark Ellis!
I am not a Giants fan and feel no need to defend nor criticize the signing, but I am surprised at the Sabean haters. 2 WS titles in the last 4 years means he is successful in my books. Sports is a results-based industry, and he’s getting results. To split hairs and piss on a few signings while missing the big picture smells like envy more than anything else.
Is he getting results or are results happening while he’s in charge? Give him credit if you want, but if your team had the chance to make him GM, that is a pretty important question to answer before making your decision.
Dude, he is getting the results! Sabean hires the scouting staff that absolutely nailed 3 first round draft picks in a row. He made the trades! He signed the players!
The Giants winning percentage over his 16 year tenure is something like #9 of all GM’s in all of MLB since 1930. Again, he took over a team that had a losing record in 5 of the 6 prior seasons. Even after adding Barry Bonds, they still had losing records for 3 of those 4 seasons. They’ve only had 5 losing seasons in the 16 since he’s been the GM. 5 division championships, 3 NL Pennants, 2 WS championships. It’s not like he got lucky one year. He has consistently put winning teams on the field
That is not luck! No GM is perfect, but Brian Sabean is a very good GM who gets grossly unfairly criticized and ridiculed on this site because his methods don’t fit the prevailing dogma of the authors of this site. It needs to stop!
Yeah, the authors of this site have a “prevailing dogma,” — one that, by the way, was contradicted by this post.
And if you feel so victimized and enraged by this site’s prevailing dogma, why do you subject yourself to the torment that you’re clearly going through, as evidenced by your volatile comments defending Brian Sabean? Life’s too short to deliberately do things that will upset your life.
Elvis… was a hero to most.
Hey ChuckB – the Giants were called the 27th best FO in the game, and the Mariners, the frickin’ Mariners were called the 6th best FO. I notice that series don’t run anymore. Why? Because a few Giants fans decided to challenge conventional wisdom and bust balls.
I enjoy Dave Cameron’s writing. And Eno’s. So I’ll continue to come around. Cameron is best when he gives up the snark, but I know that’s hard sometimes. Just like being a Mariners fan.
That’s funny chuckb, that’s what I’ve been telling the Sabean Naysayers for the past five seasons, if you don’t like what he’s doing, go follow a team that does it the “right” way, like across the Bay the way they fawn over him, and move on. Especially now, because Sabean is going to be around for a long while.
And while this article – for once – is supportive of a Giants move, this site – in general – has been pretty much bashing the Giants front office for a long while now. And they are not alone, many sabermetric sites are decidedly anti-Sabean, in particular, Baseball Prospectus has been hating the Giants every year, culminating with them demanding – in print – in their 2010 Annual that Sabean should be fired for mismanaging the Giants.
That’s their last annual I’ve bought and I’ve not seen one article where they apologized for their massive mistake. Easy to snark on what you perceive to be other people’s mistakes, not so easy to eat crow, but if you are going to put yourself out there with all their promotion about how great baseball execs think of their stuff, when they make such an outlier statement like that – fire Sabean – and don’t own up to it, that’s pretty lame.
That’s funny, Bip, the results that has been happening when he’s in charge is that he’s winning, and it has been happening over a 16 year period, whether it was tweaking an already old team in 1997 and trying to fulfill his owner’s edict to win it all with Bonds or keeping the prospects worth keeping to build up to the team that they have today. Are you saying that all of that was luck?
He’s not perfect, but if people would just stop beating him over the head over Rueben Riviera and Sean Hillenbrand, they would realize that in the big picture, he has done a very good job of identifying talent and either trading or drafting it, and particularly once he has it in hand, keeping it. Few GM’s can match his record in terms of prospects who got away, and he has kept a lot of great ones.
That’s why I’ve been saying since the late 2000’s decade that the 2010’s Team of the Decade will be the Giants, because of their core of good to great players.
And the results that has been happening under Beane is that he hasn’t even made the World Series once yet. He might have had he read BP’s chapter on why his stuff don’t work in the playoffs, pitching and fielding defense is the way to the playoffs and to championships. Particularly strikeout oriented pitching, he still doesn’t get it, his team’s are still below average in strikeout rate.
I find Beane supporters very irrational. For Sabean when he makes a find, it’s so what, but when Beane finds one, it’s like Jerry Lewis in France all over again. People forget but the guy he really wanted to obtain was Erubiel Durazo, and he did OK. Compare that with what Sabean did in his first big trade, getting Jeff Kent. Has Beane ever gotten a find like that yet? Or how about a Jason Schmidt? Not really, and they have been in charge for about the same length of time. And neither trade had anything to do with having a big budget.
But can you find a Ethier or Car-Gon on Sabean’s resume? If there’s anything that caused their skid of the prior few years, it was trades like that. And neither one was forced on him, he decided those were pretty good trades, it was not like trading Hudson and getting nothing, he was expensive and going to leave via free agency and he wanted to go home to Atlanta.
There’s no need to praise Sabean and bash Beane – it is actually possible for BOTH to be good GMs even if they have different styles. If the bottom line is wins, then Beane has also been successful with a 1300-1128 record over the last 15 years, and with a substantially smaller budget to boot. True, they haven’t made it to the World Series, but they’ve had teams that were more than capable of winning it all (just look at how stacked their teams were from 2001-2003).
As the saying goes, there’s more than one way to skin a cat – Sabean and Beane can be considered excellent GMs even if they go about their business differently.
This assumes a few things.
1. That the playoffs are not a total crapshoot.
2. That the GM deserves credit for putting together a team even when a large portion of that success is tied to players having absurd seasons. Seasons that they didn’t have before and haven’t had since.
If anyone can argue that Sabean knew that Huff, Torres, and Burrell would provide them with 15 or so WAR then maybe you can convince me he is a good GM.
Low risk, high upside signings.
He scored on those three. Yep. Tip of the cap.
It’s ridiculous that people that piss on the 2 WS titles by discrediting the sample size (“Playoffs are a crapshoot!”), don’t then give credit for the WS loss to the Angels.
Can we agree that everyone is aware that the playoffs are, indeed, a crapshoot, but the GM is tasked with finding players that play best for their time with the team in that particular situation, whenever or wherever that may be?
And on that score, it seems Sabean has been above average. He is one of the best ten GMs in the game. What’s your definition of “a good GM”?
2 WS in a period of 3 years is amazing in itself. To do it with the Zito contract was even more impressive as it handcuffed him, to a degree, with FA outlay.
You understand, of course, that the GIants would very likely have not won either of those championships without Zito, right?
You understand that they were in a position to win those championships DESPITE the Zito contract and not because of it, right?
You understand, of course, that Zito didn’t actually pitch at all in the 2010 postseason, right?
In the 2012 playoffs, he had one great start, one good start and one crappy start. I imagine they could have gotten similar production from someone else for a whole lot less than $20 million.
Yes, but I also understand that Zito pitched 19 QS in 2010 and the Giants would not have sniffed the playoffs let alone won the WS without him.
Quality starts!!! *Giggle snort*
From a statistical perspective, the Barry Zito signing was a disaster. Life sometimes defies statistical analysis. All I know is that Barry Zito made significant contributions to 2 WS championships and was critical to one of them.
Would the Giants have done just as well or better in 2010 and 2012 with an alternative player or players paid the same money? We’ll never know, but it’s awfully hard to top a championship.
Would they have won 3 WS or 4 or 5 with an alternative player or players? We’ll never know that either, but it is unlikely. In an ironic twist that ogc pointed out, it was partly Zito’s poor performance in the early years of his contract that gave the Giants the high draft picks that netted the young homegrown core that they won the WS twice with. So, Zito contributed to the championships even when he was bad! How’s that for a twist of fate?
When Brian Sabean said if he had it to do all over again, he wouldn’t have it any other way, he was not saying that Zito was any sort of ace or that he had earned his contract in WAR points. He was saying that it all turned out fine in the end. If he went back and did something else with the Zito money there is no guarantee it would have turned out better or even as good. That includes Cliff Lee!
There are a lot of GIants fans out there who have still not forgiven Brian Sabean for not signing Vlad Guerrero, and of course they are assuming that he could have if he wanted to. Vlad Guerrero had some great seasons with the Angels. He was an excellent value for them. How many championships do they have to show for it?
Particularly since the Zito contract was forced on Sabean by his owner Magowan. Local scribe Baggerly reported that a couple of years ago that Magowan was the lead on getting Zito signed. That’s why Magowan was gloating about Zito after last year’s great playoff performance.
I would add that they were also even more handcuffed by the Renteria and Rowand contracts. People like to beat up on Zito because he got the biggest contract, but once he got over his contract-itis (and that was a long two years) he was actually about average (nearly 2 WAR) which was still valuable, unlike those two hitters who didn’t do much for the Giants while getting pretty big contracts themselves, on an annual basis.
I’m with lesmash on this. I am not a Giants fan (nor a Giants hater), but I find it hard to understand the ill feelings towards Sabean. If 2 WS titles under his watch in the last 4 years isn’t good enough, who does measure up?
As far as the Hudson signing, the data does seem to support the contract. If it was an “overpay” it isn’t by much. Plus, as was mentioned previously, the market really has not been set yet. Pitching half his games in pitcher friendly SF should also help turn some HR’s into outs.
I was critical of Sabean’s trades/free agents signings at least until the Gints won that first World Series in 2010. I’d waited my whole life (or at least since becoming a Giants’ fan in 1978) for the Giant to finally finish on top, and it was Sabean who got them to the Golden City on the Hill (to the extent the Giants weren’t already there playing in San Francisco).
Sure, I didn’t like the Barry Zito signing at the time it was made, and in many respects it was a bad move. Still, the Giants don’t win the 2012 World Series without Zito’s post-season pitching that year.
The first indication for me that there was at least method to Sabean’s seeming madness was back in 2001 when he acquired Shawon Dunston. I thought the move made no sense, and I told my friends that the only way this move pays off is if Dunston gets some key hit in the post-season. Sure enough, Dunston did, getting a hit with two outs in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the NLCS that put winning run in scoring position for Kenny Lofton’s game-winning base hit. Dunston also hit a home run in Game 6 of the World Series that year, before the Giants pissed away a five run lead with eight outs to go.
This is exactly why the way results-based analysis doesn’t make sense. So what, Sabean knew that Zito would turn into a pumpkin, but the depth of his foresight is so great that he also knew that Zito would only perform well in years where the Giants were out of it, and that they would make the playoffs despite him, and that he would perform when it really counted? He signed Dunston knowing the outcome of one playoff PA?
The other problem, and the reason we have to establish a baseline for stats like WAR, is that you don’t actually know what would have happened had Zito not been signed. What if the Giants would have gotten Cliff Lee if not for Zito’s contract? How do you know Zito’s replacement wouldn’t have pitched well enough for them to win in 2012 and then some? In fact it’s likely, considering that Zito was quite bad.
LOL Cliff Lee!! How many rings has he won?
Come to think of it, Cliff Lee played a pretty big role in the Giants winning the 2010 World Series. They probably would not have won it without his help! So ironic that you would bring his name into the conversation.
Jesus Christ, you’re somehow saying that having Zito was preferable to having Cliff Lee?!
!!!!
Stop. Talking.
IS. FANGRAPHS.
See my comments re. Barry Zito a couple of sections above.
I can say with pretty good certainty that had Zito pitched like Cliff Lee, the Giants would not have won their 2012 championship, as you think so. In the years he pitched poorly, his first two seasons, the Giants ended up drafting Bumgarner and Posey. While it is arguable that they might have still been able to get Bumgarner with a later draft pick (still, another team could have picked him up first), they definitely would not have gotten Posey as there was a mass of teams just behind, and an extra 2-3 wins would have pushed them into the 10-12th position and extremely unlikely to have been able to draft Posey at that point.
I think we can all agree that having Posey was a major key to both championships, without which – and you can check who else was drafted in the first round, no one is close to him in WAR production – the Giants don’t get either championship.
Of course, the Giants didn’t sign Zito in order to lose, but I do know that had Zito been like Cliff Lee, which is your assertion, that would not have been enough to push the Giants into their 2012 title. They would have been missing a key offensive cog, a cog they would not have been able to get through the free agent market or trade, so your supposition that Zito being like Cliff Lee would have “likely” been enough for them to win in 2012 is not close to being true.
Dr. BGiantsFan wrote:
Whey does anyone give a rat’s $%& whether this was an overpay or not?
I too am a Giants fan (and on a teacher’s salary) and would like to be able to afford more than 2 games a year with my family. Standing room only tix for $32 a pop doesn’t sit well (pun intended) with me. I am happy to have Hudson, but not for that price.
So you would rather be able to afford to attend more games and watch them lose? Do what I do, buy the MLB Package on Direct TV and watch 90% of the games and a HD TV. You get a better view of the game plus terrific commentary by Kruk and Kuip.
Amen to that, best broadcast team in MLB. Go Giants!!
Ticket prices are based on what makes the most money, not how much they pay free agents. They will raise ticket prices until the price elasticity of ticket demand is >1.
i think this site has a new troll
The AIDS in this thread brought to you by: DrBGiantsfan.
Speaking of trolls.
But “two rings”…
DrB loves the giants like my parents love the GOP. Never made a bad move, everything they do makes perfect sense, blah blah blah. I’ve lived in this myopic SF sports town for three years and kruk and kuip are borderline brutal, just FYI. There’s no point in desponding, I already know what you’re going to say so don’t bother but seriously try being less defensive and get some perspective, it’s actually fun looking at the whole picture instead of whatever it is you want to see.
I have always said that Sabean is not perfect. Like all GM’s he has made his clunker trades and signings. Rather than rehash once again all of his good and bad individual deals, I will comment on what I see as his relative strengths and weaknesses:
Strengths:
1. Scouting and developing pitching via the draft. This is aided in no small part by the genius of Dick Tidrow, but Sabes is responsible for keeping him around and taking his advice.
2. Dumpster Diving. His track record of finding productive players who no other team wants and are available for essentially free is as good as any in baseball.
3. Deadline trades- although his record is not perfect here(the Beltran deal did not work out), his successes are far more numerous than his failures.
4. Valuation of OF defense. One thing I find very strange about this site is that Sabean was placing value on OF defense long before Fangraphs was championing it, yet he is given absolutely no credit for it. If you don’t believe it, look it up. The Giants have been perennial leaders in team UZR and even more so in OF UZR since the inception of the metric.
5. Building bullpens. I think this has been mentioned by others in this thread.
6. Maintaining a stable highly functional front office staff with appropriate delegation of responsibilities, yet remaining involved enough that he has final say in the assignment of minor league prospects.
7. He is good at hiding his intentions. His trades and signings generally come with little or no advance notice from the media. On the other hand, when he does make a pronouncement to the media, he usually makes good on it. Making the re-signings of Pence and Lincecum a stated priority would be examples of this.
Weaknesses:
1. Scouting and developing hitting. This may have improved of late, but the results are still fairly meager. John Barr was brought in specifically to correct this with mixed results so far. They currently appear to be drafting and signing hitters with low K/BB. Too early to tell if that is the right way to go.
2. He does not like to take risks with young players particularly young position players. He obsessively wants every position at the start of the season with a player with MLB experience. He forces young position players to wait for an injury or poor performance from the veteran starter before they get their chance.
3. He is impatient in the offseason, preferring to get all his targets signed by January 1 rather than letting the market come to him and risk not filling the position. I would view this as both a strength and a weakness. It is his philosophy, for better or worse.
4. He is probably too willing to overpay, particularly in years, for players he wants. This often leaves him with at least 2-3 “deadwood” contracts on the books at any given time.
If you stand back and look at the forest for the trees, his strengths outweigh his weaknesses and he’s made more good decisions than bad. He is certainly not the buffoon/terrible GM he is often portrayed to be on this site and others. The sustained success of the team on the field during his tenure speaks for itself.
LOOK EVERYBODY, HE MADE A SENSICAL COMMENT!
DrBGiantsfan is a troll. They’re not serious. They wouldn’t talk like that if they were.
I can always tell when I’ve won my argument because I start getting responses like this.
You win.
You win the internets with the rock-solid “two rings” argument…
Funny, I can usually tell when I’ve won when someone says they’d rather have Barry Zito than Cliff Lee.
I’m starting to believe you aren’t an actual doctor.
As a longtime Giants fan, here, Sabean can be incredibly frustrating to have manage your team. However, he does have some strong points.
1) He is good at the dumpster-diving high-reward, low-risk contracts (Torres, Huff, Burrell, Ramon Ramirez, Javier Lopez.
2) He is good at assembling quality bullpens on the fly
3) He has assembled a very good scouting department (for drafting high-round pitchers. Posey is the only recent hit on a hitter drafted in the top few rounds).
His overwhelming and infuriating weaknesses:
1) Many of his big-ticket FA contracts tend to blow up spectacularly(Zito, Aaron Rowand)
2) A continued penchant for clutchy, grizzled veterans.
All-in-all, the Sabean master plan worked so-so for the first decade of his tenure. After he disabused himself of the need to build a team around Barry Bonds and blew everything up in the late 2000s, it has worked generally well since then. Of course, this is no guarantee that it will continue to do so.
Bottom line: above average GM who is pretty good at delegating authority to people he trusts (Bochy/Righetti, his pitching scouts) but has his weaknesses. He would not be anywhere near my Hall of Fame, as of now.
If Pat Gillick is in the HOF, Sabean certainly deserves consideration. If he wins one more WS, he should be a shoe-in.
It was not his decision to keep building a team around Barry Bonds. That was Magowan’s decision, much like the signing of Zito (and I’ve suspected that Rowand was a Magowan deal too).
And the funny thing is that clutchy grizzled veterans are who helped greatly to win the championship for them in 2010, particularly Renteria, Huff, and Uribe.
I thought most people like the Belt draft (5th rounder) pick.
Do you even know what the odds are of finding a good player with a draft pick in the top few rounds are? Because you made this statement, I’m thinking “no”.
Part of the reason his master plan didn’t work so well in the early years was because he inherited a team that was expected to win from the get-go, he did not have the luxury of losing for 5-6 years, piling up great draft picks, and shooting for the playoffs. Without great draft pick position, due to him turning around a badly losing team into a division title winner, a turnaround of 22 games (see how common it is for a newly installed GM to do that), he did get many chances at picking up Top 10 picks which are much easier to find good players with (though still hard to do).
It also didn’t help that while the Giants new owners shelled out for Bonds, they cut the scouting department to the bone at the same time, and when they wanted to draft CC Sabathia, they weren’t given the budget to sign him, so they settle for Tony Torcato. Ouch!
Plus, he has done this particular things very well: when a good prospect falls into his hands, he doesn’t let them go, he keeps them, he don’t trade them away, even during the final Bonds years when Cain could have been traded to boost a position and make a better run at a title, he kept him. Nor did he trade away any of the pitching when all the fans (and experts) said that they should trade a pitcher to get hitting, he kept them, and it was only when he had a surplus of starting pitching, when Vogelsong performed great, that he was able to trade off pitching to get hitting.
I forgot to add that it took awhile (probably until sometime around 2008), but Sabean finally figured out how to try to sign players to play to his home park’s strength (huge outfields and a marine layer that suppresses home runs but spread out the opposing outfielders to the extent that a bunch of line-drive singles hitters tend to find holes). That’s when you started to see an emphasis on outfield defense notably creep into his signing strategies. Rowand was a disaster at the plate (never saw a low-and-away slider he didn’t like), but he made sense initially as a decent defensive OF, as did Blanco, Pagan, Torres, et. al.
Excellent point about OF defense, something that this site claims to champion, yet gives no credit to the guy who has probably been putting it into practice longer than anyone.
If he’s been championing OF defense for so long, can you explain why his only positive value OF defenses in the last decade have been in 2008, 09, 10, 12, and 13? Would seem like someone who puts OF defense so high would have beneficial run values prior to 2008.
…wasn’t the argument that was just made that it took Sabean until around 2008 to figure out that that was what would work in AT&T Park? I don’t know if I agree, but saying that the fact that he didn’t have positive run values in the OF before 2008 wouldn’t seem to disprove the notion that around 2008 he figured out he should start valuing OF defense more.
I suppose you’re more replying to DRB, but still.
Its pretty simple. Barry Bonds in decline. And the ownership hijinx that left nothing for draft and development.
2003: Bonds, Grissom, Jose Cruz+
2004: Bonds, Grissom, Tucker
2005: Feliz, Ellison, Tucker (Alou/Grissom/Bonds hurt)
2006: Bonds, Finley, Winn (Alou hurt)
2007: Bonds, Roberts, Winn
When you trot out the oldest outfield in history (Bonds/Finley/Alou) you will not have plus defense. He was given a task: win with Barry, but also given a few nickels to get that job done. Hence the old vets rep.
My wife used to say about Bonds “Does he even try?” and I’d say, honey, he used to be really, really good in the field.
If you follow the Giants closely, you know that Sabean pays constant lip service to getting younger and more athletic in the OF. Its easy to say these things, sometimes it doesn’t happen right away. He’s obsessed with CFs, and he is trying to get as many of them to play in the OF as possible. Sometimes you make exceptions to bring some offense to the table. Hence Burrell/Huff for the early innings in 2010.
Assuming this is response to DrB, as I completely acknowledge that it took him over a decade to start figuring out that OF defense needed to be a priority, particularly in CF and RF to cover all that space at home. This also applies to the coaching hires. Blanco (per his blog) stated specifically that bench coach Ron Wotus had gone over defensive alignments for individual Astros hitters before Matt Cain’s perfect game in 2012 (one assumes video and/or spray charts, though he does not say): “I was playing a few feet closer to the gap than usual. Ron Wotus, our bench coach, talked to me before the first game of the series on Tuesday about how we’d position ourselves for different hitters. He said Jordan Schafer is a gap hitter.” Link- http://gregorblanco.mlblogs.com/2012/06/14/still-unbelievable/
Though, obviously, any organization committed from the top to milk as much mileage out of Barry Bonds as possible (the new ownership group led by Peter Magowan brought in Bonds as their signature, and first, move in 1993) is not going to be able to do much defensively. It’s tough to tell when Sabean started to adjust his strategy, but it’s pretty clear, given that every post-Bonds year has seen an above average OF defense, that it is a systematic strategy. Even if he may be using more of the mark-one eyeball and his scouts’ gut instinct than UZR or DRS (no idea what actually goes on inside the Giants scouting dept), he is still clearly prioritizing OF defense these days.
1) Buster Posey: 2014 NL MVP, Gold Glove 1B
2) Time Hudson: 2014 NL CY Young
3) Tim Lincecum: 2014 NL Comeback Player of the Year
4) Bruce Bochy: 2014 NL Manager of the Year
5) Brian Sabean: 2014 Executive of the Year
6) 2014 San Francisco Giants: World Series Champions of the World
2+1=3 rings. The true “Giants” of the West.
*chirp*
This is a troll spoofing DrB.
Can DrB not post on any more Giants-related posts ever? Not ever. Never ever. Methinks he and we would all be happier…
Sure…I’ll just post on the other 29 teams now. Be prepared, numbnuts.
FG really should find a better way to deal with trolls.
1) Buster Posey: 2014 NL MVP, Gold Glove 1B
2) Time Hudson: 2014 NL CY Young
3) Tim Lincecum: 2014 NL Comeback Player of the Year
4) Bruce Bochy: 2014 NL Manager of the Year
5) Brian Sabean: 2014 Executive of the Year
6) 2014 San Francisco Giants: World Series Champions of the World
2+1=3 rings. The true “Giants” of the West.
I have been an insider to baseball for quite some time now. I work at an agency that does promotional occasionally for the Giants and A’s. I’m well aware of the inner workings of the Giants and their front office staff. Brian Sabean has easily been the best general manager in baseball over the past decade.
have you worked with any other franchises? What is your opinion of the other GMs and their front offices? I am genuinely curious.
Finally, who do you think will win all of those awards in 2015? Or 2016?
“Brian Sabean has easily been the best general manager in baseball over the past decade.”
WE ASKED YOU TO JUST. STOP. TALKING.
Trolls like this guy spoofing DrB
Classic. Taking the time to post up a fake handle. Good job there fake DrB. You’re not only a troll, you’re a chicken-troll.
And I wouldn’t be surprised if you have multiple fake handles running through this thread…
I can no longer access my original handle. Can’t be a Giants fan on FG, I guess.
Yes, you can be a Giants fan on FB. What you can’t be is blind to any evidence-backed argument that doesn’t praise the team. Sabean certainly has not proved himself to be the best GM in baseball (nor is he the worst by any stretch).
They’re a good team whose strengths seemed to match up with the particular requirements of playoff baseball in 2010 and 2012 (good pitching, decent-to-good defense, just-enough hitting, Bochy as a good in-game tactical manager). Some of those aspects of the team are not as advantageous over a 162 game season (Bochy seems to take a maddeningly long time to maximize his lineup and has an incredibly short leash with younger players. cf: Belt, Brandon).
They also got lucky in both years, because in a tournament that (at the time) involved a maximum of 19 games played, luck necessarily plays a role. Acknowledging the weaknesses of the team and the role luck played in their two titles in no way detracts from the magic of winning those championships. It also, in no way, diminishes the memory of my 66 year-old father calling me up crying in 2010 saying that he didn’t think that they would finally win a title in my lifetime, much less his.
If anything, intelligently identifying your team’s strengths and weaknesses is the epitomé of baseball analysis: how else do you expect it to get any better, or, if it is one of the best, continue to stay on top?
Whoops. Typed “FB” when I meant “FG”. Apologies.
Zed – you’re not replying to the “real DrB” anymore, this guy is having some fun trolling around. Sabean is top 5 in the industry and has had remarkable staying power. He built the Yanks dynasty as well. Does he have plusses and minuses? Of course. Does he make the occasional bonehead move? Of course. Does he get nitpicked to death over the same 4-5 moves? Yup.
As far as the championships, he learned the hard way about not having enough pen back in 2002. And letting Jeff Kent walk. He also operated with one hand tied behind his back with a cheap ownership watching every penny. He built the post-Bonds team very very deliberately around pitching and defense. With amazing results. There are things to improve the “crapshoot” nature of the playoffs. The A’s haven’t learned them yet. The Giants have.
Up above you talk about the defense, well the Giants have a proprietary video system to map it out. But they won’t be sharing it with F/G, B/P or Michael Lewis. Which if you think about it for five seconds… is pretty savvy.
Shankbone: yes, the trolling is annoying, but I figured I’d use it as an opportunity to (hopefully) display a Giants fan acting rationally. Basically, the idea is to try and be a a counter-example.
I’ve heard about the defensive video system, though obviously have no details given the Giants’ decision to treat it like an industry secret (which they, of course, are well within their rights to do).
Of course they keep it a secret, that is what good businesses do, find a competitive advantage and then keep it a secret.
This is a troll spoofing DrB.
ogc,
The monkeys started flinging poo sometime yesterday evening. LOL!
Seriously, Dr. B. You should stop talking.
Not because I don’t believe in what you are saying. In fact, as a Giants season ticket holder (and a rational human being), I am on board with most of it.
Its just that you are never going to make progress on this site. You can keep banging your head against the wall if you want. For a variety of reasons (most of which are likely unfounded…for example, I’m pretty sure the Giants have a staff of people who pour over baseball statistics), Brain Sabean and the Giants are anathema on this site.
When a slurry of anti-Giants venom was spewed after the 2010 WS title, I had begun a research article looking at Sabean’s trades and free agent signings. I never completed it (mostly because, I have a job and three kids, etc., etc.), but now I may finish it as it was very favorable to his track record.
But then again, I may not finish it. Even that would not do any good. Despite the overwhelming explosion of statistical analysis in the last 10+ years, there are still enough variables to explain things away. Do these sound familiar;
The playoffs are a crapshoot
XYZ player(s) got lucky/hot at the right time, etc
XYZ player played over his head
Got lucky here
Got lucky there
Blah, blah, blah
Anything positive for The Giants/Sabean can easily be explained away by luck. Anything negative is just a testament to Sabean’s idiocy. When was the last time any team’s success (especially a World Series title) was attributed to luck as much as it is for the Giants? Did David Freese have the month of his life in October 2011, or are Tony LaRussa and the Cardinals a brilliant organization? Had Texas or Detroit beaten the Giants in the 2010/2012 Series (as most people predicted), would the word luck have ever been uttered? Tampa Bay (all hail the beloved Rays) pick up James Loney off the scrap heap, he has a rebound year and the Rays are brilliant. The Giants pick up Aubrey Huff off the scrap heap, he has a rebound year and the Giants are just flat out lucky.
Its too easy to pick and choose the variables and how you feel about them. The Giants and/or Sabean will just never get the proper amount of credit because they are viewed as not being “on board” with the Fangraphs/Sabermetric way.
Yet, if Joe Maddon or Andrew Friedman dropped a turd in the Tampa Bay dugout, it would immediately be assigned a 3.5 WAR (and let the negative votes begin……..)
I generally agree. I ran into the same thing at a major Giants watering hole, where I was telling everyone that better days were ahead, back in 2007, but nobody was listening and worse, Sabean was anathema to them, so they dug their heels in. They are still like that even after 2010 and 2012. I warned the head cheese that his corporate overloads won’t like that he’s negative about the Giants while they are winning, but he’s been doing his same old shtick still, though softened a little bit to keep his masters happy.
But Fangraphs should be different. There should be more rational people here. But I’ve listed my rationale here and find that people like to stick to their beliefs.
And I understand that. I was all ready to ream Sabean a new one when I started studying the draft in 2004, and which teams are successful in it. I found out in my study that the odds are horrible for finding a good player with even the first pick in the draft, then it gets way worse pretty fast. Less than a coin flip with the first pick – FIRST PICK – of the draft, and by the time teams fighting for a playoff spot gets to pick, the odds have already fallen to roughly 10% odds of finding a good player, one that you can hope to build around. Then it gets way worse. That made me realize that his bad drafts were more a sign of a winning team, than a poor drafter, that it is very hard to see who is good and who is bad, that it is better to observe the results: does he find enough players to build a core and win with it? I think he has done that in spades.
And I find it funny that where Sabean is knocked down for luck, when other teams have the same exact no-name players winning series for them, playing above their heads, they are awesome teams run by awesome GMs.
Since then, I’ve tried to keep up with the latest findings, and often enough, I find that the Giants follow them. Particularly BP’s study of the playoffs, finding that teams with a high K/9 staff, a great closer, and good fielding, then to go deeper into the playoffs. Sabean has been talking about great pitching and defense for a long time now.
I’ve also made my own discoveries, like the fact that Bochy is one of the few managers to have a winning record in 1-run games, and in fact, is statistically significant that his record in one-run games is above .500 (plus he has recorded a high wins over .500 in 40% of his seasons managing).
Or, not really a discovery, but using Shandler’s PQS methodology, I analyzed recent season’s playoff results by PQS and found, not surprising, that when pitchers throw a quality game, they win roughly 70-80% of the games where the other guy throws a non-quality game (per PQS methohdology). My discovery here is that it would make sense to build a rotation of guys who can throw a large percentage of quality starts (DOM starts in PQS parlance), as that maximizes your chances in the playoffs. You leave your chances in the playoffs more to luck when you have guys like Blanton starting for you (and like Zito, yes, or to bring back a Giants horror moment, when their mighty offense was silenced by Jones in the 2000 playoffs). The Giants have been doing that in the last several years, from 2009-2012. And with the Hudson signing, trying to do it again.
All in all, the big picture is that the Giants and Sabean has been doing a lot of things right, it is sabermetric people who have been failing to understand that correctly, much like it took people a long time to finally acknowledge that there are pitchers like Cain who are capable of keeping their BABIP significantly below the league mean.
I might be knocking my head on the wall, but I got to try sometime and maybe find a new convert every once in a while. Giants fans should be enjoying this golden era, not griping about how bad they think Sabean is. But it’s their loss, I still think fans should thank Sabean for bringing the 2010 championship to us or don’t have the right to enjoy the title.
Brian Sabean has had excellent success with low-priced free agent signings. He has had limited success with higher-priced signings.
He made two horrible trades for A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Beltran and in each case compounded the mistake by not re-signing the player he traded for. But overall, his trade record has been good.
The Giants have been a good team primarily because he hit with top-10 overall draft picks in Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey — all without having to pay free agent prices for any of them through the 2013 season.
Opinions on Brian’s ability as a GM vary more than on almost any other GM. To me, the facts indicate he is a good one but not a great one. Probably low top quartile or high 2nd quartile.
I really liked his signing of Tim Hudson for next season. Fits the Giants’ time frame, involves injury but not an arm injury, involves a pitcher who has known great success (even recently), and potentially provides the Giants with an excellent mentor for another tiny Tim who is going through the switch from power pitcher to smart pitcher.
Brian Sabean overall? Good GM, perhaps a very good one, possibly even an excellent one. Probably not a great one.
Tim Hudson? Excellent pitcher, an older one, and hopefully a healthy one. Definitely a risk, but one that seems quite prudent to me. IMO Giants fans should be quite excited by this signing.
Excellent commentary.
I have always made the Pierzynski trade horrible and not just bad was that they didn’t sign him after that year. Another interesting point about that trade is that it wasn’t necessarily his statistics that did him in, but his non-statistical failings (apparently being an over-bearing jerk and a bad “clubhouse” guy).
I was OK with the Beltran trade. Obviously you give up long term for short term, but
– the Giants just won the WS for the first time in over 50 years
– you never know when you are going to get back, much less win it (the window can close might fast)
– the pitching was still lights out in 2011
– they were in first place at the time of the trade
They had every right to think they could win the division and make the playoffs. Beltran was the extra bat they needed with Posey out and had a great post season track record. That’s they way it goes with those trades……you just have to roll the dice.
I occasionally covered the Giants for a Bay Area radio station when Pierzynski was on the team and can attest to him being an all-around jerk. This wasn’t a case of him being a jerk to the media (most players are at least polite, though finding one who dislikes the press isn’t difficult); this was Pierzynski being an a** to teammates and the coaching staff. Read this story about how he treated the Giants’ head trainer:
http://www.sfgate.com/sports/jenkins/article/Ballplayers-still-getting-their-edge-3313461.php#page-2
That happened in spring training…he couldn’t even wait until the season started to cement his reputation.
To DrBGiantsfan please go back to bleacher report and scroll through some slide shows about the best Giants uniforms in the last 65 years.
Thanks for the suggestion. I’ll consider the source.
I know everyone hates it, but Tim Hudson has a .648 win/loss%. He is really good at winning games, a pitcher’s job.
Dr. BGiantsFan wrote:
Excellent point about OF defense, something that this site claims to champion, yet gives no credit to the guy who has probably been putting it into practice longer than anyone.
I guess by putting it into practice longer than anyone does not mean Sabes knew about OF defense when he signed Marvin Benard for a few more years of pain to those watching him track (or not) flyballs.
Marvin Bernard shared the outfield with Bonds in his prime and Ellis MF Burks, one of the many absolute knockdown trades Sabean made that were apparently before anybody’s time in the saber world. But shhh… you don’t want to get into this era of Giants baseball discussion, because it will absolutely destroy the myth that Sabean doesn’t know how to build an offense.
Bobby,
Marvin Benard? That’s the best you can do? Harp on a minor player from 15 years ago? How pathetic!
Benard had almost 3,000 PA for the Giants, hardly a minor player. I find your reaction less than interesting… I’m happy to hear that you do not attend games and choose to stay behind your multiple screens, as I do not want to sit near someone of your ilk.
Steamer Projections:
Dave says Steamer projects Hudson for 2.1 fWAR over 150 IP, yet his fangraphs says his 2014 Steamer projection is 1.6 fWAR over 180 IP.
How does that work?
Skankbone wrote-Marvin Bernard shared the outfield with Bonds in his prime and Ellis MF Burks, one of the many absolute knockdown trades Sabean made that were apparently before anybody’s time in the saber world.
True- The SF Giants had a rockin’ offense during the Bonds-Kent-Burks years. That was an awesome 3-4-5 combo that helped make guys like Rich Aurilia have career years (37HR).
But I am not sure what trade he is referring to.
Ellis Burks- November 13, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the San Francisco Giants.
Barry Bonds-December 8, 1992: Signed as a Free Agent with the San Francisco Giants.
Marvin Larry Benard-June 1, 1992: Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 50th round of the 1992 amateur draft. Player signed June 4, 1992.
What trade… Hah! You just proved my point. Awesome. Dig a little deeper and you’ll find it, a trade inter-division, with the Rockies.
Burks, Schmidt, Big Cat, Kenny Lofton, Livan, Rob Nen (the last 2 pissed on by haters because the Marlins were having a fire sale, well who got there?), a big one that is underrated: JT Snow, Shawon Dunston, Felix Rodriguez, Joe Carter, Charlie Hayes, Brian Johnson…
The list is completely one-sided. But all you hear about is AJ doubleplay for Nathan-Liriano, all day long. (Which was actually seen as a win for the Giants by BP and other early saber oriented joints btw, a starting catcher for some pen arms and injury gambles). The 2nd worst trade? Most likely Bill Mueller for Tim Worell. Mueller was getting expensive, THAT was why he got traded, because ownership was cheap.
And of course the big one, the first one. That constantly is called luck. Trading an aging 3B for your staring 2b/ss? Sounds pretty savvy to me. He hit huge on Kent, that’s for sure.
Don’t trust me, go look up the names that he gave away. The 2003 period on he might have been gunshy, but he didn’t have anything to trade except his pitching prospects he was trying to bring online. And nobody really wanted anything but the best from that point. So he held. Matt MF Cain.
Sabean is top 5 GM boss man. Deal with it.
Skank- I stand corrected on the acquisition of Ellis Burks, although I must say when they got him he only had to finish 1998 with Giants. Then he re-signed as a free agent.
I would also agree that trades are made due to ownership wanting to cut costs. Much worse than the Mueller for Worrell trade was the Russ Ortiz for Damaian Moss deal. Ortiz went on to win 21 and 15 games and we got a mediocre year from Moss who was then traded for Sidney Ponson, which ended poorly. My point being that Ortiz was traded to save money.
Dude-I am all about finding the best way to run a club, and dude, I am a Giants fan big time and have been since 1968. I am ecstatic over most of the players the Giants have drafted lately-especially pitching. I prefer to look for ways to get better and take an honest, critical look at the past so the Giants can improve from here. I am envious of the depth the Cards have in St. Louis with young pitching and hitting. We (SFG) have had great success in developing pitching.
Recent article in the NY Post ranks Sabean in 8th place behind:
1. Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay
2. Billy Beane, Oakland
3.Jon Daniels, Texas
4. Dave Dombrowski, Detroit
5. John Mozeliak, St. Louis
6. Brian Cashman, Yankees
7. Theo Epstein, Cubs
8. Brian Sabean, San Francisco
Thanks for the reply. I checked back because I’m waiting for Dave Cameron’s excuse for being completely bamboozled by the Wizard of Oz I mean Jack Z…
Great point about Ortiz. That was a head scratcher at the time, and it was all about money. Peter the Pink was talking a big game, and making a big move here or there but zig zagged sideways and cut out budget on the side. Sabean carried his water for him, and is still standing while Peter gets to sit 3rd car in the parades.
I think rankings are fun, but we get too obsessed with them sometimes. I like to quadrant MLB into 3 groups of 10, and then maybe hit it with a top 5/bottom 5 in each tier. I definitely consider Sabean a top third GM and the Giants a top third organization (something that Fangraphs has repeatedly screwed up in the past 4 years due to bad confirmation bias – they dislike Sabean’s public persona, don’t really understand draft and development correctly and get way too obsessed about WAR scores and getting value on contracts).
Here’s the thing with these GMs – they all have warts.
Friedman – his drafts since David Price/Matt Moore have been dreadful. Here’s the factor (and I bring it up because Sabean gets dinged for it): its hard as hell to win drafts from bad draft position.
Beane – has given up far more talent than Sabean ever has because he’s a compulsive trader.
Dombowski – not enough tweeks to a playoff roster, ignored his pen with horrific results.
Moz – the golden boy who can do no wrong. Give him some years on the job, he’ll make a bad trade (Sabean’s are constantly nit picked, all 2 of them)
Cashman – He wants to play moneyball, he really, really wants to do it… but those owners keep overriding him. One year he’s going to really take his ball and go home.
Epstein – (and his boy Hoyer) are way too slick for my taste, but they’ve gotten results. They’ve had more money to step over bad contracts and the mess they left behind got cleaned up by Agent Ned and the Doyers bankroll. We’ll see what they can do, if Epstein can get a ring in Chicago he’s a legend and a half.
If you’re envious of the depth the Cards have, you should be happy. The Giants are building their depth, they actually have a very similar style as the Cards, looking for solid no-nonsense college guys the way the Cards do. I analyzed their last ten drafts and before last year’s 2009 boys came out to play the Giants actually beat the Cards on year-to-year comps and WAR scores.
Fact is, ownership carved up the Gints scouting budget for years and years. Its only been changed since 2006. So it takes some time, and sometimes you bust as well. The Giants are pretty set up for the future. Are they the bestestest? Nope, but they are damn good, and Fangraphs totally misses the boat on a great hybrid scouting/stats org because they focus on Brian Sabean and his plainspoken old schoolnishness. Their loss.