Trade Targets: Center Field
Continuing our Trade Targets series, here are five center fielders who could be available at (or before) the deadline.
PLAYER: Matt Kemp
TEAM: Dodgers
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Reds
CONTRACT STATUS: $6.95M (up to $7.1 million based on plate appearances), arbitration-eligible after this season (free agent after 2012)
PROJECTED WAR: 1.8
(Please note that Kemp’s ROS WAR is severely depressed due to his poor defensive numbers in center. He’s easily the best offensive player of the bunch, and the biggest name available, which is why he leads off this piece.)
I wish I could just copy and paste Jonah Keri’s explanation of the Los Angeles Dodgers financial situation from yesterday – since it was not only knowledgeable, but because Jonah also experienced the Montreal Expos disaster years ago.
Deciding whether or not to include Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp to these lists was a highly discussed issue considering no one really knows how the situation is going to shake out. Since Jonah published his article, more information about the Dodgers’ financial situation has been released. Long story short, it doesn’t look good. Apparently, Frank McCourt was able to meet the Dodgers’ payroll last month by asking his sponsors for an advance on their current deals. This revelation explains just how much the Dodgers are hurting for cash.
Should things go downhill – and the Dodgers have to shed payroll – Matt Kemp instantly becomes one of the most attractive players on the trade market. Kemp, 26, experienced a bit of a down season last year, but he appears to have returned to form in 2011. Due to his age and body of work, Kemp would likely command a large haul on the trade market.
Kemp’s value increased based on the fact that he’s one of the few center fielders with a playable bat in a corner outfield spot. The Reds currently have Drew Stubbs manning center field – and Kemp’s defensive numbers in center are questionable at best – making Kemp the ideal candidate to replace Jonny Gomes in left. The Reds have some valuable young talent (Yonder Alonso, Mike Leake, Todd Frazier, etc.), so there’s a chance this happens if the Dodgers make Kemp available.
PLAYER: Michael Bourn
TEAM: Astros
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Indians
CONTRACT STATUS: $4.40M, arbitration-eligible after this season (free agent after 2012)
PROJECTED WAR: 2.3
Eric Seidman wrote up a fantastic piece on Bourn, 28, last week, in which he explained how Bourn has been so valuable the past two seasons. Since much of Bourn’s value is tied up in his excellent defense, it’s tough to project how valuable he will be going forward. The team that acquires Bourn, however, can focus on the short term as Bourn is eligible for arbitration at the conclusion of the season. At this point in time, we have no reason to expect a sudden decline in Bourn’s defense, making him a valuable acquisition for a contender.
Due to the uncertainty surround Grady Sizemore, Bourn is an ideal fit for Cleveland. Sizemore has already spent time on the DL this season, and he’ll probably have to be rested often if the Indians hope to keep him healthy. On top of that, it’s highly unlikely Sizemore will return to his excellent defensive ways in center following such a devastating knee injury. Not only is Sizemore capable of playing a corner spot, but allowing Bourn to play center immediately increases the Indians’ team defense.
PLAYER: Marlon Byrd
TEAM: Cubs
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Rangers
CONTRACT STATUS: $5.50M in 2011, $6.50M in 2012 (free agent after 2012)
PROJECTED WAR: 2.0
With the Cubs struggling to stay in the race for the NL Central – and the team looking to shed payroll for the offseason – Marlon Byrd could become an attractive trade piece. The Rangers could use a dependable option in center, and are familiar with Byrd. The big question is whether the Rangers would be willing to commit to Byrd for an additional season, as his contract doesn’t expire until 2013.
The Rangers don’t really have a center fielder of the future, so using Byrd as a temporary stopgap makes sense. Julio Borbon doesn’t appear to have the plate discipline needed to hold down a full-time role, and David Murphy’s glove is severely stretched in center. Adding payroll doesn’t seem to be a concern for Texas, as they signed Adrian Beltre to a large contract in the offseason.
The Rangers are familiar with Byrd – and he fills a position of need – meaning the Rangers could pounce once Byrd hits the trade block.
PLAYER: Coco Crisp
TEAM: Athletics
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Braves
CONTRACT STATUS: $5.75M, Walk year
PROJECTED WAR: 1.9
With Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz returning to the Texas Rangers, the Athletics chance to contend for the division may have already passed. Thankfully, the A’s signed some valuable players to relatively cheap 1-year contracts this offseason. Crisp is one of those players; the A’s won’t miss him due to the short contract, and he might command a useful piece on the trade market.
The Braves are somewhat set in center, with Nate McLouth making $7M and Jordan Schafer waiting in the wings. McLouth hasn’t been effective since joining the Braves, however, and is a poor defender out in center. Schafer still has potential to be a solid center fielder, but hasn’t produced at the major league level in his brief auditions. If Schafer falters as the season progresses, and the Braves finally pull the plug on McLouth, Crisp would be a solid addition to the team.
Crisp would likely come cheap, and would upgrade Atlanta’s defense in the outfield. With various nicks and bruises keeping Jason Heyward off the field, Crisp also gives the Braves more depth in the outfield (as if they needed any more options).
PLAYER: Mike Cameron
TEAM: Red Sox
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Marlins
CONTRACT STATUS: $7.75M, Walk year
PROJECTED WAR: 1.3
Boston is more than set in the outfield with J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford. They also have Ryan Kalish waiting in the wings, meaning they could choose to make Mike Cameron available in July.
The Marlins could use some more stability in center. Acquiring Cameron allows the Marlins to end the Chris Coghlan experiment in center and move him to third base, a position he has played before this season. With the move, the Marlins receive better production at third base, and solidify their defense (which is a common theme of this piece).
The biggest question here is money. There’s no way the Marlins will add Cameron’s contract without Boston picking up a fair amount of money. At the same time, Cameron’s contract comes off the books once the season ends, so the Marlins wouldn’t be taking on much of a monetary commitment here. If the Marlins can continue their winning ways, they may be more willing to add payroll around the deadline. It’s rare to see the Marlins add payroll around the deadline, but Cameron makes a lot of sense if the team wants to stay in contention in the NL East.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Michael Brantley seems fine in center field. Is this not accurate?
Would Bourn only play when Choo, Sizemore, Brantley got a day off?
I think Bourn is a superior defensive player (and a more valuable player) at this point in their careers. Brantley could be used when Sizemore needs a day off, and he would be a great defensive replacement. With Sizemore’s recent injury history, I feel like Brantley would play more than your typical 4th outfielder.
I like Brantley, and I don’t mean to diminish what he’s done this season. I just view Bourn as an upgrade at this point.
I agree, Brantley is having a breakout year, one of the top lead off hitters thus far, although I did like it when Sizemore was in center and had Brantley in left and Choo in right, tons of speed and defensive talent in the outfield when those 3 are out there. The tribe can also utilize Ezequiel Carrera who has tons speed and has proven he can cover ground.
How much research did you do for this? The Rangers don’t have a CF of the future? What about Leonys Martin, who’s OPSing over 1.000 in AA after they just committed 15.5 Million to him?
Martin’s off to a great start, but I’m hesitant to anoint him to that spot due to his lack of experience/stats in the minors.
Martin might continue to hit and could fit into the Rangers plans sooner rather than later.
Maybe that puts him on schedule to come up at some point next season and take over for Byrd following the 2012 season (when Byrd’s contract is up).
Any other promotion schedule seems pretty aggressive.
Byrd would be a decent bridge to whenever Martin is ready, and with Hamilton and Cruz ever fragile, the Rangers can use the depth.
Endy Chavez is probably better than Bryd, as well. Especially for the price- better defense and baserunning, certainly.
“The Rangers don’t really have a center fielder of the future”
The Leonys Martin kid is off to a very hot start in Double A, just per K. Goldstein yesterday. But they might be reluctant to throw him into a playoff push, so Byrd could still make sense there.
Aside from Leonys and the Rangers though, the assumption that the Cubs would trade Byrd is based on two things:
1) That Brett Jackson can play centre field; and
2) That the Cubs will allow Brett Jackson to play centre field.
Neither is to be taken for granted. Plus the Byrd-man has a broken face at the moment. No one’s showing him any love ’til his he gets his smile back and that’ll be a month away at best.
The Cubs don’t necessarily need to promote Brett Jackson this year if they trade Marlon Byrd. Honestly, even if they trade Byrd and Fukudome this season, there’s no reason they can’t just trot out Campana and Colvin if they want Jackson to get more time in the minors.
With that said, there are questions regarding how well Brett Jackson can play CF, but unless the Cubs are willing to release Soriano, eat nearly all of his contract in a trade, or sit him and pay him $18 million, that’s the only place Jackson can play. He doesn’t have the arm for RF.
I agree, though, that the bigger issue with trading Byrd is the facial fractures. No one knows exactly when he’ll back.
Chris –
Do you see any solution for the Nats next year at CF? I’ve heard an occasional mention that Harper, whenever he gets called up, might play there, but how good can a guy be who is just starting out as an OFer… and the only other guy in the pipe is a great defensive but very questionable bat in Eury Perez, who is also ways away regardless. Ankiel should not be an everyday starter, and Bernadina isn’t even good enough in RF.
I’m asking with the idea (er, the hope as a fan) that they will compete more next year and certainly the year after, but hate to observe their current CF situation….
I don’t think Harper’s the answer in CF any time soon. You can check out minors sites within the Natmosphere to get some feedback on those who have actually seen him in person a couple of times. I’m hoping to get out to Hagerstown myself. My understanding is that they are focusing him on being an excellent RF while giving him some games in CF to see if he can make progress at the position.
Eury Perez is hitting well in Potomac. He’s still got to master Harrisburg before he can convince me, and that feels like 2013, the year the Nats really need to put it together because that will be Zimmerman’s walk year.
Nats desperately need a CF, especially from the right hand side. Any ideas for prospect trade targets in CF if the Nats move Jason Marquis?
It is possible the Twins might send you Span in exchange for Werth. They make really bad decisions.
Why would the LAD trade their best player? To empty the stadium even more?
I highly doubt he will be available.
Season tickets are sold. How much walk up is LA getting? Dumping 7M is salary feels like costs saving to me.
so just trade your best position player, right? Sounds silly to me. So the Rays should deal Longoria to save money then?
I made this point yesterday on the corner outfielder post, but again: the Phillies seem to be a logical destination for a right-handed slugger such as Matt Kemp. Philly badly needs a right-handed slugging OF to replace Jayson Werth’s production and to balance the heart of the otherwise lefty-dominated lineup. Kemp would start in RF for the Phillies and bat in the #5 spot. Domonic Brown would get sent back to the minors although he might return in the event that Raul Ibanez falls apart down the stretch. [Note: Ibanez was one of the very best hitters in MLB in May so writing him off right now is foolish.] A healthy Chase Utley, along with Kemp, turns what has been a pretty bad offense into a pretty good one, certainly one that’s good enough to win the Series this year and next year. Would the Dodgers trade Kemp for a package centered around Jonathan Singleton, a very good 1B prospect for Philly? They might.
With L.A.’s big financial issues, I have to think that the prospect of paying Kemp $100+ mil in the winter of 2012-13 seems pretty unappealing, so I do think that he’s going to be shopped around.
Projected 2011 Phillies batting order
1 Shane Victorino (CF)
2 Placido Polanco (3B)
3 Chase Utley (2B)
4 Ryan Howard (1B)
5 Matt Kemp (RF)
6 Raul Ibanez (LF)
7 Jimmy Rollins (SS)
8 Carlos Ruiz (C)
Sure, the Phillies could use Kemp, but what would you have them give up?
A package centered around Jonathan Singleton, a highly regarded 1B prospect? After that monstrosity of an extension that the Philly brass foolishly gave to Ryan Howard, it’s not like Howard is going to going anywhere, ever, really, and who knows if Singleton can adequately play LF. More importantly, in my mind, Philly needs to go all out this year and next year, as the window will likely close after the 2012 season for this veteran group.
The Phillies would have to give up Brown in any deal for Kemp. Brown + Singleton+ Cosart.
Anyway, I don’t think Kemp will be dealt. Ethier is another story.
For some reason he wasn’t in the corner OF post but I think that Ryan Ludwick would also be a candidate and would probably cost less prospect wise than Kemp.
Yes, I too was wondering why the Phillies would be a possible destination for Ethier but not Kemp.
I couldn’t agree more that any good right-handed hitting outfielder on the trade block has a potential destination of Philadelphia. For all the talk of the Phillies having no payroll flexibility, there’s no way they’ve gone this far and spent so much not to add another $5 or $10 million to try to take advantage of this window. They’re all in down to their shorts. If Kemp is available, I think the Phils would run at him as hard as they could.
I don’t think LAD would trade Kemp to anything the Phillies have. not only that but you think the 175M dollar Phillies are going to add nearly 7M to their payroll? They have 80M committed next year to Lee/Howard/Halladay/Uggla alone. They probably shouldn’t be spending anymore if they want to retain Hamels or Oswalt. Without at least 1 of those 2 guys, the Phillies are significantly worse. Lee’s contract was stupid, from 2012 on they’ll have Hallday/Lee/Howard getting paid a lot. the only guy I can see performing well is halladay.
To top it all off, the LAD situation seems like something that could actually turn around fairly fast. Huge market with some pretty good players in place who are at good ages.
Next year, Roy Oswalt is likely gone. Raul Ibanez is gone. Brad Lidge is gone. Cole Hamels goes through the arbitration process one last time. Jimmy Rollins’ contract expires but will presumably be retained for at least another year, since the team has nobody in the minors set to replace him and there do not appear to be any better options on the free agent market this winter. Ryan Madson is a free agent and will presumably be retained. If Oswalt comes back, he surely will not be making $16 mil again. More likely, Oswalt walks, Joe Blanton moves into the #4 SP spot, and the #5 SP spot is filled internally. Payroll is going down next season, in other words.
Adding Kemp to the payroll for this season and next season is not going to break the bank, in other words. I am envisioning Kemp as a one and a half year rental, and that Philly lets him walk when he hits free agency in the winter of 2012-13. I have to think that Kemp is available and that L.A. would be tempted by a package of Jonathan Singleton and a Class A pitching prospect, particularly if that’s the best offer on the table. If other teams can top that offer, I’d like to think that Philly will look at a guy like Delmon Young as a backup option.
In 2013, a lot of these Philly players will likely be gone. Placido Polanco is likely gone, as is Shane Victorino, Ibanez, possibly Rollins, Blanton, Oswalt, Lidge. The core remaining players would be Ryan Howard, Chase Utley (on his last legs at that point), Carlos Ruiz, Domonic Brown, maybe Rollins, maybe Hanson, and the big three of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. Maybe Kemp, if they trade for him and opt to re-sign him, although my guess is that this will be cost prohibitive. Philly does have some massive contracts here and really needs to be able to fill some of these holes (SS, 3B, RF, CF, SP4, SP5, maybe CL) via their farm system. Unfortunately, that seems unlikely at the moment. More likely, Philly will be reduced to filling these holes with the sorts of low-cost past-their-prime riff raff that San Francisco got lucky with last season. Which brings us back to the obvious need to win what you can in 2011 and 2012, which probably can happen only if the team adds a right-handed slugging OF like Kemp to slot in the #5 hole in the batting order.
Get real. Kemps going nowhere, especially not to A. The phillies B. For some pretty good 1B prospect and random C prospects. Even before the last two days this was just a pipe dream. Could I propose ethier and trayvon for Hamels, but you’d think that was dumb too
As a Blue Crew fan I think Ethier will be gone before Kemp, then Kemp will be moved to RF. I would love to see a deal done with the Reds to get Alonso and plant him at 1B. The Dodgers would still have to get a CF but as long as he’s a better hitter than Loney (not difficult) and a better defensive CF than Kemp (again, pretty easy) it would be a net gain and the Dodgers would save their money. McCourt is going to be forced out one way or another and MLB won’t let the Dodgers dismantle things a la post-WS Marlins.
He isn’t a better hitter than Loney but they could just go with Gwynn in center and assume that he’s not going to have a sub .220 BABIP forever.
I think LAD can get Alonso for Kuroda.
Wouldn’t Melky Cabrera be considered a trade candidate?
Yes. I considered Melky Cabrera for this piece, but his ROS WAR calculations didn’t put him in the top 5 and I didn’t want the piece to be uber-long.
Why doesn’t Matt Kemp lead baseball in IBB? Is there a greater discrepancy between the No. 4 and No. 5 hitter on any team in MLB? I would almost never pitch to him in a meaningful spot
Jim Tracy begs to differ.
If the Mets go into full fire-sale mode, Angel Pagan could be an attractive piece.
Will Venable to Texas to play CF? He’d be cheap, and his road splits are markedly better than CarGo’s. .800 (maybe .850, playing half his games in Texas) OPS with solid D in center would be excellent.
No way should or will the Dodgers trade Kemp. He is young enough to be part of the next Dodger contender. He and Kershaw will be kept as centerpieces. However I am hoping the Dodger trade Ethier rather than sign him long term. The Dodgers need the infield prospects Ethier would land in a trade, plus they have plentiful internal outfield options, not to mention how much money they would save. It has to be done.
“No way should or will the Dodgers trade Kemp. He is young enough to be part of the next Dodger contender.”
This franchise is having major financial problems and the history of $100+ mil players is not pretty. Such players rarely earn their keep. To make matters worse, Kemp has hardly been the model of either consistency or maturity. Not exactly a building block. Kemp is very liable to get offered a huge amount of money when he hits free agency in the winter of 2012-13 by at least a couple of teams, and I wouldn’t want to get into a bidding war over this guy. I’d also want to move him this year rather than next year simply because the package that somebody is going to cough up for 1.5 years’ worth of Kemp is surely better than what they’d cough up for 0.5 years’ worth of Kemp. I’d hold on to Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley (and, by default, Ted Lilly and Juan Uribe) and auction off everybody else for prospects and cash. Seems likely, in my mind, that this is what the Dodgers aim to do here, given their financial circumstances, although maybe I’m mistaken.
Don’t forget that the Dodgers were disgusted with Kemp around this time last year and probably weren’t being offered anything good for the guy. Here is their chance to get something valuable for Kemp.
Also, don’t forget that prospective ownership groups may well (and probably will) be more interested in starting from scratch with an organization flush with cheap, young talent.
Attendance is already down. Kemp is a fan favorite. He is also the best position player on the Dodgers by far. Any new ownership group will want to win and make money, neither will be accomplished if Kemp is traded. Will not happen. Keep dreaming.
The Bravos need some speed on the base paths. I wouldn’t mind Bourn or Crisp to get the juices flowing. This offense is God-awful.