Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Hi, everybody, and a very pleasant good afternoon to you, wherever you may be

Travis Sawchik: I believe because of user error this post didn’t publish earlier …so this is the day to get your question answered … The queue is relatively barren

Bret Michaels: Last chance to buy low on Greg Bird? I have a feeling everyone that panicked will soon have pangs of regret.

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think 25 at-bats is a reason to be too concerned re: Bird. I think he’s going to be a nice MLB player … Not sure about a fantasy star, but a useful corner type

Travis Sawchik: So, yeah, now is a much better time to buy than it was in March

Bryan: How long do the Nationals keep Treinen in the closer role. The obvious counter is, who else do they have? But man, it’s getting rough out there

Travis Sawchik: I want to see him get a longer look. The sinker is filthy at times. What’s going on with everyone’s bullpen early this season?

Travis Sawchik:

Andy: Does Adam Frazier kind of strike you as a young Freddy Sanchez? Should he be playing every day over Josh Harrison?

Travis Sawchik: I really like Frazier. Love the compact swing and bat-to-ball skills. And, yes, I think he should be the everyday 2B with Harrison moved back to a super U role where he excelled in 2014

Bubba: How worried are you about Britton’s health?

Travis Sawchik: I’m always worried about forearm discomfort. Sunday was a tough day for injuries around the game. I’m concerned with J.A. Happ, too

Monsignor Martinez: Suppose the league expanded after this year, and each team protects 5 players prior to the expansion draft. What team do you think loses the first player? Any idea of who you think gets drafted first overall?

Travis Sawchik: One reason I want to see an expansion to 32 teams soon is too get Montreal back in MLB … And so we can have/watch/analyze an expansion draft

Travis Sawchik: Teams would be allowed to protect a much greater volume of players …

Travis Sawchik: Cubs?

Kyle: How bout dem Astros?

Travis Sawchik: That’s one of two division leaders that I had in our preseason forecasts … Astros are legit. Not sure about four of the other six division leaders. Rockies were a sleeper entering the season

Bryan: Are bullpen meltdowns the result of unsustainable BABIP? For instance Treinen at a .412 or Dyson’s .545 or are there other factors at play, such as so many players ‘re-tooling’ their swing for improved launch angle?

Travis Sawchik: Good question. It’s really early, but it’s weird. I would lean toward the former. … But Treinen and Dyson are sinker ball guys, and those would be the arms most susceptible to the uppercut swing proliferation

Paul: Travis – how long do you wait until your inevitable “Let’s look for guys who have started to hit the ball in the air more” post? I know a lot of stuff is probably still noise. But after 4 HR since Thursday, we Braves fans are sort of giddy about the idea of Ender Inciarte adding some kind of power to his game.

Travis Sawchik: Oh there will be a few of those! Maybe a macro-level look later today or tomorrow 😉

Mike, of Mike & the Mechanics: Blue Jays’ playoff odds have gone from 40% to 11% since opening day. Ouch. Does that seem right to you?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, it does. It’s going to be a tight AL wild card field, potentially, and the Jays are now starting from a hole and we’ll have to see about Happ’s health

Josh: How good does that Eric Thames signing look now? The plate discipline improvements look legit, and the power was never the question.

Travis Sawchik: The translations of stats from the KBO and Cuban professional hitters have been very good for the most part. I think there was a lot of belief in Thames here at FG this offseason. Great signing by the Brewers

Travis Sawchik: Thames has also has bat-speed and raw power … so it’s not as if he did not have gifts.

The Dude: Think Dylan Bundy can keep it up? I know he has pedigree, but in the division and with his history of injuries and lack of track record, I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Travis Sawchik: Sure, there’s risk. But he’s a different pitcher with the cutter/slider back in his portfolio

GERB: Not sure what the big fuss is over Otani when we’ve got Michael Martinez running a 2.93 FIP and 773 wRC+

Travis Sawchik: Nice

RMR: Why do fans always boo the opposing pitcher for a pickoff attempt or stepping off the rubber? This has bothered me for a long time. Are they really that stupid to boo that (and then not do anything when their own pitcher does it)?

Travis Sawchik: The same reason people hunk when a driver is not paying attention to a red light turning to green? Let’s get this show moving …

Sam: Is Eric Thames gonna keep this up all year? because my goodness…

Travis Sawchik: You mean ‘God’

Travis Sawchik:

Matt: Excellent bit of reporting there, Travis, with the Cabrera article

Travis Sawchik: Thanks! The post is now live on the site … http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/miguel-cabreras-short-and-perhaps-longe…

Omar: Any reason to worry about Cleveland?

Travis Sawchik: For the most part, no …. but the CF situation is a bit of an issue (Chisenhall?) …and Perez might need to become the starting catcher soon … Those are two up-the-middle positions. I think rotation will be fine

Evil Goatee Travis: How much longer does Vince Velasquez perform as the Adam Dunn of pitchers before he gets moved to the bullpen?

Travis Sawchik: I’m giving Velasquez all year in the rotation if I’m the Phillies. He has legit stuff if he can harness it.

Guest: How long do the Cubs keep Ian Happ down in AAA if he keeps mashing and Baez keeps striking out on 3 pitches?

Travis Sawchik: But can he tag like Baez?

Travis Sawchik: If Cubs suspect Baez cannot resolve his contact issues he might the guy to move from their position player surplus

STiVo: Is it legal to use any kind of randomly generated strategies (e.g., pitch selection) in the dugout? Is the answer different if it’s done old school–say a dice and a chart–and not using computers?

Travis Sawchik: I think it’s legal. I would l like to see Jim Hickey and Mickey Callaway and others rolling dice in the dugout

tom: how worried should i be about Oh and his closer position?

Travis Sawchik: What’s going on with everyone’s bullpen? I wouldn’t be that worried about Oh yet. He was outstanding last season and it’s April 17

Jim Lahey: thoughts on what the yankees should do with their veterans (ellsbury, gardner, headley, hicks) that were available the entire off-season if they continue playing like this? should they still try to sell them to clear the logjam for the prospects? or if the yanks are still winning, should they look to sell the OF prospects in AAA (frazier, fowler etc) instead?

Travis Sawchik: It

Travis Sawchik: ‘s a nice problem to have

Travis Sawchik: The Yankees don’t really have to worry about this until Super 2 passes … I wouldn’t rush any prospects in their position

RedFan Bob: First-place Reds have a 0.1% chance of winning the division per Fangraphs. So you say there’s a chance?

Travis Sawchik: There is a path!

Travis Sawchik: I hope Finnegan is OK. His stuff is legit

Kyle: How long does the Tribe stick with Gomes?

Travis Sawchik: For me, Roberto Perez is the superior receiver, thrower, and batter … So i wouldn’t think Gomes has much more margin for error

Jerry DiPoto: Random thought I just had: Teams now put their best starting pitchers together at the top of the rotation. Say you have 3 dependable pitchers that average 6-7 innings a start and 2 where you are hoping to get 5 from. Wouldn’t it make some sense to put your 3 dependable arms at 1-3-5 in the rotation? Thought process being that it is more ideal for the bullpen. That should mean the bullpen on average, is less likely to be taxed for two nights in a row. Should help keep arms fresher and mean you have your highest leverage arms more often than now

Travis Sawchik: I like this thought

Dabo: It seems as though Price has something interesting going on with the Reds bullpen situation. They are pitching whoever they think has the best chance of getting someone out at the current time, regardless of “role.” In a IP league with RP slots, do you think it’s worth it to own someone like Lorenzen who will come in for 1-3ish innings every few days and get a few K’s and possibly some Sv/Hlds?

Travis Sawchik: If you’re in a deep enough league and/or a daily league, yes. I do like that we’re seeing more inspired bullpen usage. Thank you Andrew Miller!

Big Tuna: Have you seen enough from Trey Mancini to think this might be real? Eric Longenhagen seemed to suggest he has a strong hit tool.

Travis Sawchik: He’s going to come back to the pack, unless he’s going to pull a Tyler Naquin for a full season … but he has hit at every stop

Josh: There is talk the Dodgers may push Hill to the bullpen to limit his pitches due to his blister issues. How likely do you think this is? Would it really be in their best interest to use him in a long relief role?

Travis Sawchik: I can’t believe the Dodgers would really want to have a $16m long reliever…They are a team with the necessary pitching depth to do it if they desired

Bucs: Is there a precedent for the Rich Hill blister issue? Has anyone gotten past this before?

Travis Sawchik: Josh Beckett did, I believe, and eventually got beyond it

Travis Sawchik: Nolan Ryan?

Travis Sawchik: http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2004-07-08/sports/0407080170_1_bliste…

Travis Sawchik: Perhaps Hill should try super glue, uncooked rice, rodeo ointment and/or pickle brine

Whitney: How far away is Lindor from being the second best player in the game?

Travis Sawchik: Among position players, he’s close. If he’s a 30HR, .875 OPS-ish, Gold Glove shortstop is that more valuable than Trout?

BP: Is Eric Thames legit? In other words, could you see him finishing the year with 35 homers, and maybe a .260-.270 average?

Travis Sawchik: Yes. Especially in Miller Park

Q-Ball: Is it possible that scouts have underestimated the quality of play in the KBO, given the success that transplants have had? Conversely, did scouts overestimate the play in Serie Nacional, given the issues some Cuban vets have had?

Travis Sawchik: KBO was under-scouted relative to Cuba …. But Thames had legit power in his first MLB go-around

Bernie: On a scale from Bryce Harper to Barry Bonds, how good do you think Eric Thames will be? (Seriously though, how excited should Brewers fans be?)

Travis Sawchik: Let’s a take a deep breath. But I suppose he could be on the Bautista track only as a LHH. But that’s his 95-100 percentile outcome

Roman: What is going on with Vincent Velasquez? Future bullpen arm or starter?

Travis Sawchik: It’s really early, he’s striking out the world, and the Phillies are playing for 2019 … Let’s let him pitch

CubFan: Think Tomlin is toast? Sure has looked like he’s throwing bp so far.

Travis Sawchik: Mickey Callaway said Tomlin had dropped his arm angle which was causing some flat run back over the plate on his fastball…That’s not good at 88 mph. I’m betting Tomlin makes an adjustment and is better next time out

Sid Vicious : I know it’s early, but the Reds and Brewers look to be much improved over last year (at least offensively) and the Pirates should also be better than they were. Is there any sort of (awesome) timeline where the Cardinal Way actually finishes last this year?

Travis Sawchik: Cardinals are going to finish third or better

Kevin: Thoughts on Cutch so far? Defense seems to be working out, but how about his batting skills?

Travis Sawchik: Those are still a concern

Los: I am trading Rich Hill for either Rendon or Frazier as I need a 3b. Which of these struggling players is better if BB and SLG are added to the normal 5 hitting categories.

Travis Sawchik: I’d keep Hill for a bit. He’ll have more value if he can get over this blister issue

Monsignor Martinez: RE: Expansion draft. I was thinking Astros

Travis Sawchik: Another good choice

Pikup Androppov: Re expansion: Adding teams would in Montreal and Mexico City would be awesome and great for the game. I know people point out that Mexico City isn’t a great baseball town but to me that seems dumb. I mean there are pro hockey teams in Southern California and they’ve done perfectly fine

Travis Sawchik: MLB will eventually be in Mexico City. Now whether that’s closer to 2050 or 2025 I can’t say. But 50 million people live there. Decent market.

Dylan: Sell on Tyler Glasnow?

Travis Sawchik: For Quintana? Yes

Wandy: Think the Pirates would revisit a Quintana deal now that he’s had a slow start and might be more affordable? That said, their rumored pieces, Bell and Glasnow, haven’t exactly seen their stock soar either.

Travis Sawchik: It seems reasonable from both sides … Bell might fit best in AL where he can DH spend time in RF/LF

Q-Ball: Of these currently in last-place contenders, who should worry the most? The least?: STL, SFG, CLE

Travis Sawchik: CLE

Jeremy: Rank Joaquin Benoit, Matt Bush, and Brad Brach rest of this season as a potential closer?

Travis Sawchik: Bach … If Britton is out for awhile

Kyle: I may have revolted if Correa’s hand had been broken by that pitch over the weekend…or at least cried

Travis Sawchik: Why doesn’t every MLB hitters wear a wrist guard/padded bottom-hand batting glove?

Dudley: I know it’s early, but…

There is no question after but, because as I say, I know it’s early.

Travis Sawchik: Ugh, April, you’re so annoying

Chaps: Do you think owners are quietly lobbying against expansion in part to avoid an expansion draft?

Travis Sawchik: If they were it would be more a lobby against splitting the MLBAM/national TV pie 32 ways instead of 30

Ben: Why is Sandy Leon good?

Travis Sawchik: Blake Swihart is also wondering about this

Momus: So it’s time for us Jays fans to start panicking right?

Travis Sawchik: Yes

Travis Sawchik: It’s early but it also feels like it’s getting late in Toronto

Moltar: Going forward, will every team start to have a multi-inning stopper in their bullpen? We’ve seen guys like Devenski, Bradley and Lorenzen start to dominate in this role, and conversely my Mets have already blown out their bullpen pitching everybody for an inning nearly every game. Seems like a stopper is a much better strategy for winning games.

Travis Sawchik: We’re getting closer. Thank you, Andrew Miller and Terry Francona

Shaun: When do we see Bradley Zimmer in Cleveland and is he worthy of a stash now for this year?

Travis Sawchik: I think we might see him June. He’s another guy who has adopted the fly-ball swing plane. He’s a potential 5-tool star, though Ks will always be part of his game … So maybe 4 tools …

Rich: In your experience around the clubhouses, do a lot of baseball players play fantasy baseball? It’s obviously much longer of a grind than setting your lineup once a week in football.

Travis Sawchik: A lot of players play fantasy football, many teams have their own fantasy football leagues …. But I’ve never heard of a player talk about having a fantasy baseball team.

David: Who do you like better as an all around 1B- Belt or Abreu?

Travis Sawchik: Real life? Belt. I just wish he played in a different home park … It suppresses his offensive value

Big Pappy Chicago: Love all the Thames questions. How about one more? What’s the possibility between 95% and 100% that the league adjusts, he doesn’t re-adjust and the signing looks terrible? But really, the league will adjust at least a little, won’t they/it?

Travis Sawchik: Thames will have to pass the second-go-around test after teams acquire more information, that’s very true

99: Any chance Brent Honeywell sees the majors this year?

Travis Sawchik: If he keeps this up, yes. Rays are a sleeper in AL East

Omar: Most underrated ballpark?

Travis Sawchik: San Diego?

Travis Sawchik: Or does San Diego get a lot of love?

Matt : isnt .875 OPS Lindor just Machado with better defense

Travis Sawchik: Machado with Gold Glove SS defense is the AL MVP, I think

Matt: Has there been any analysis of whether or not shifting has inflated ISO? curious how the trade off of giving up a few doubles in the name of suppressing singles works.

Travis Sawchik: There’s been some digging into the side effects or shifting … It would seem, to me, to compel batters to find more ways to hit balls over the shift

John: Dave and Jerry(on NESN) bring up Beltre as a HOFer. Gotta be a lock, hasn’t he?

Travis Sawchik: I would hope so

Evil Goatee Travis: DJ LeMahieu loves multihit games. Four in a row and six out of his last eight after a slow start.

Travis Sawchik: Great fantasy 2b

Maddux in a Row: Tyler Skaggs looked fantastic yesterday. Is that the real Skaggs or did he just eat an extra special bowl of Wheaties?

Travis Sawchik: Post-hype sleeper alert?

John: Is mookie betts ever going to strike out again

Travis Sawchik: Amazing to see an everyday player in 2017 with a 0% K rate on his line in mid April. He has incredible hand-eye coordination

Wes: Is it time to be worried about JP Crawford? He was pretty bad in AAA last year and looks even worse this year (early I know). I had hope he could be a Lindor lite type player.

Travis Sawchik: That bat was always going to trail the glove, we’ll have to see by how much. Lindor is a special dude so don’t put that comp on him even in a Lite, Sugar-Free, Fun Size, type of way

Ben: Does Nola have the best 2-seamer in the MLB when healthy?

Travis Sawchik: Best? Very good. Let’s hope he stays healthy. There’s ace potential there

Matt : Why did Naquin get demoted? A near 900 OPS, even with a .400 BABIP doesn’t give him some kind of cushion?

Travis Sawchik: Naquin slugged 1,310 on fly balls last year, the MLB average was .730ish … He was an obvious regression candidate

Rudy: Am I crazy to think that despite giving up 6 runs last time out, Glasnow actually looked pretty good?

Travis Sawchik: I didn’t see the start but it’s my understanding he did look much better and was even throwing some changeups … He’s such a wild card….I thought it might make sense to let him work out of bullpen early and build up some confidence

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: I know there’s a ton of VV questions, but would you prefer VV or Pineda RÓS?

Travis Sawchik: Pineda is the better strike thrower, so Pineda

Frostilicus: Most likely to reach the postseason: Pittsburgh, Miami or St. Louis?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think any of those three teams will be in the postseason but Pittsburgh, I think, has the best shot. Taillon has been so impressive

Hunky Dory: Cleveland need to trade for OF help? Sure would be nice to have even 1 sure thing out there

Travis Sawchik: Zimmer in June? Brantley has been encouraging

Erik: Eric Thames seems to be everything the projections said he’d be. Still a short sample, but how much has your confidence in those seemingly overly optimistic projections increased based on what he’s shown so far?

Travis Sawchik: Trust but verify. It looks like we’re verifying. Let’s see how the league adjusts, but it’s been awesome

Maulitor: Which of these gets the most money in free agency: Bogaerts, Correa, or Lindor?

Travis Sawchik: Lindor. No doubt he’ll stick at short long-term and there is more power in the bat than many thought … and a switch-hitter

Travis Sawchik: Can Cleveland get him signed to a pre-arb extension? It should be a focus, of course

John: “Machado with Gold Glove SS defense is the AL MVP, I think ” ……. maybe in a Trout-less world…..

Travis Sawchik: If Trout is a 10-win player, yeah…but maybe not if he’s a 7ish-win guy

Evil Goatee Travis: My buddy in Pittsburgh Moonlight Graham asked you to lunch. I’d drive up from DC to join you guys if you accept.

Travis Sawchik: Where are we going?

Evil Goatee Travis: Let’s say the Athletics sneak into the one-game Wild Card playoff game. Who do they want starting for them?

Travis Sawchik: Projecting forward … Cotton. But A’s have a sneaky-good rotation

pickles: I have Cespedes, Thames, Springer. Last week was awesome! No question, I just love fantasy baseball

Travis Sawchik: Quit while you’re ahead

goatman: Who would you take RoS: Andrew Benintendi, Trey Mancini, or Mitch Haniger?

Travis Sawchik: Benintendi

Maddux in a Row: I’m sure he’s not the first to think of this, but Gary Cohen of the Mets broadcast team has often advocated for the rule that players can wear whatever protective gear they want while batting, but if they get hit in it, they don’t get a base. What do you think?

Travis Sawchik: Is it reviewable?

Genie: Can Mitch Haniger keep it up?

Travis Sawchik: I think Jeff Sullivan is planning something on this…stay tuned!

Steve O: Is Charlotte a good market for expansion? I know they just got a new AAA stadium which probably doesn’t help

Travis Sawchik: I think it is a strong candidate. Carolins have a growing population, it’s a big banking center, and amateur baseball is a big deal there … And it would give the Braves a natural I-85 rival

Old timer: When teams need help from their minors for whatever reason, is there a strong tendency to call up players already on the 40 man roster vs the best talent available?

Travis Sawchik: It is a consideration, of course. But like with Zimmer in Cleveland, if he represents a big upgrade in June it might not matter that he’s not on the 40

James: How good could Max Fried be? His stuff is ridiculous.

Travis Sawchik: He could be great. Love the Braves targeting upside

v2micca: Mexico City has a lot of issues to fix before they could regularly host an MLB franchise. 2050 seems optimistic.

Travis Sawchik: 33 years is a long time

Babe Lincoln: Top 3 hit tools in MLB Cabrera, Votto, Trout in that order?

Travis Sawchik: Betts is in the argument

Graves: Here is a proposal, with all the the times through the order data and since the Dodgers have so many good starters, why not do 4 tandem starts where each pitcher just goes twice through the order (3-5 innings) excepting Kershaw: 1. Kershaw 2. Maeda/Hill 3. Ryu/McCarthy 4. Stripling/Wood 5. Kazmir/Stewart. You also have the added advantage of disrupting the platoon advantage by pairing Lefties with Righties. Thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: How about Kershaw once every four days in a tandem?

Scott: Do you know fantasy? I don’t but am trying it for the first time. Someone’s offering me Edwin Encarnacion for Eric Thames. Sounds reasonable, yeah?

Travis Sawchik: As much as I like Thames, it’s also a great time to sell high and secure a profit

Tom: I’m putting together my bucket list of ballparks to visit. Other than Wrigley and Fenway, which 3 should be at the top of my list?

Travis Sawchik: San Fran, Pittsburgh, LAD

Jay: Aside from track record, are there any positive signs to point to Edwin Encarnacion turning it around? Age related declines should be expected after his career high in Ks last year, but he swung and missed at a 90mph fastball yesterday against Matt Boyd. Are teams pitching him backwards maybe and that’s throwing him off?

Travis Sawchik: The good news is EE is not expanding his zone, OSwing%, remains in line with career average … but his whiff rate is up. Francona says he’s pressing. Let’s give it some time

t: Is the Yan Gomes deal the worst thing happening with Cleveland right now? Screwed up the Lucroy trade and he’s signed up for 4 more years. He’s been horrendous for over 2 years. Any chance he gets back to the guy from ’13-’14?

Travis Sawchik: Perez has to be close to getting more reps …Gomes’ framing has decline according to the BP metrics, too … Mejia in 2018?

Will: Would Rich Hill be as dominate as Andrew Miller in a relief role?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think it would be as dramatic. Hill already leans on a breaking pitch like Miller. I wonder how much he could ramp up his velocity

Pat: Twins have allowed the fewest hits and runs up to this point. Clearly not sustainable, right?

Travis Sawchik: Right

Dahl Makhani: Under-reported issue with Mexico City – it has a higher elevation than Denver. This would become the most extreme hitters’ environment in baseball

Travis Sawchik: I’m OK with weird hitting environments. Gives baseball a twist other sports do not have to the same degree

Porcho Villa: You buying Bryce Harper’s start? Or concerned that he’ll fall off like he did after April of last year?

Travis Sawchik: He’s my MVP pick

Matt from Miami: When David Price get back which current SP goes to the bullpen: Wright, Pomeranz, or Rodriguez?

Travis Sawchik: Pomeranz has looked pretty good, imo 16Ks in 10 IP

Ontilt1377: 14 team 5×5. Weekly lineups. Morton (vs LAA & @TB) or Garret (vs BAL)?

Travis Sawchik: Morton

Journeyman: Greg Allen for Indians going to make a splash in the MLB at all this year?

Travis Sawchik: Fringe Five alert!

Travis Sawchik: Indians might have two future CFs in their system

Erik: Thinking about the answer you gave about Bradley Zimmer: who is the greatest 4-tool player (where the one missing tool it the hit tool) in the game right now? Javy Baez, or can you make someone better?

Travis Sawchik: Baez is a good one. That hit tool is the most important, especially if you look at it is a OBP/AVG tool

ERIC THAMES: Eric. Thames.

Travis Sawchik: He has a watch line in S.Korea!

Dabo: SHould I add Skaggs in a 12 team deep league if my staff needs some serious help? I have been bakning on CMart, Hamels, Odorizzi, Shark, Cotton etc. and hasn’t been pretty

Travis Sawchik: He’s worth a flier

Mike: Judge looking great so far, think he’ll spend all year in the bronx?

Travis Sawchik: It appears that his focus on creating more contact might be something

Garrett: re: Mexico City – I agree MLB will want a team there eventually, but if Colorado is out of control at times at ~5000 feet above sea level, how would they handle Mexico City at ~7500?

Travis Sawchik: Soaking wet baseballs

BrotherMan: RE: 1-3-5 rotation The Cubs kind of did this with their rotation going Lester-Hendricks-Arrieta when Maddon would pull Hendricks before the third time through

Travis Sawchik: Interesting. I like the idea

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, thanks for the great questions. I have to go write and parent …. Be good!