Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat
12:03 |
: Greetings!
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12:03 |
: Let’s get started …
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12:03 |
: I loved your article detailing the Billy Hamilton idea (and reading the clubhouse reactions to it were priceless), but one issue I have with the idea is basically the incentive for a player NOT to be the first to get on base (and therefore stay in the game). I wonder if this could actually backfire and hurt the team in the long run
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12:04 |
: Ouch. Was that conversation with Billy Hamilton as painfully awkward as the article made it feel?
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12:04 |
: Thanks … And it was a bit awkward, but also kinda fun to get other players to feel compelled to participate
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12:05 |
: I guess there would be great incentive to be the second Reds player to reach base
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12:05 |
: It would require some selflessness, for sure
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12:05 | : This is the piece in question: |
12:06 |
: What’s your go-to sunflower seed flavor? BBQ? Ranch? Original?
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12:06 |
: I cannot de-shell sunflower seeds to save my life … but I’d be an original guy
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12:07 |
: Any time I’ve attempted to do the whole sunflower seed thing, I end up with a mouth full of shell fragments/splinters
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12:07 |
: Considering that Gregorius is a free agent after next season it seems plausible that the Yankees will not need him if their Torres and Andujar pan out. Would they dare trade him for a pitcher mid-season?
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12:08 |
: I think such an trade would be more likely to happen after the season
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12:10 |
: Are you following any reported swing changers this offseason? The only one I’ve seen so far is Juan Lagares, which is…weird.
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12:11 |
: I haven’t seen a ton of media reports on swing changers but I’m sure they are going to be growing in number
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12:11 |
: Sorry for the delay, had to get a new Paw Patrol episode loaded for a demanding 3-year-old
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12:11 |
: How many Indians games do you plan on attending this year?
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12:12 |
: As a media member? I will be there for quite a few pre-game media availabilities … and I will probably go as a “fan” with friends/family several times
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12:12 |
: What is your favorite thing to look at when grading/ranking/projecting starting pitchers?
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12:13 |
: I like to start with K-BB% … pretty simple but pretty telling
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12:13 |
: At first, I saw DeJong?! 6 years?! Then I saw it’s like 4M a year. I still ask… WHY? but as with Wong’s 5/25M, it’s not like he won’t be worth 4M+ a year…. can’t decide if frustrated or happy. How should I feel as a STL fan?
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12:13 |
: Thoughts on the Dejong deal?
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12:13 |
: Surprised about the DeJong extension? Seems like a regression candidate with the high BABIP and high K rate, plus low avg exit velocity last year. Although the Cardinals probably know way more than me 🙂
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12:16 |
: The K rate is a concern, but he’s a fly-balling SS … so he should be a long-term fixture. What’s kind of weird is the Cardinals are not buying out any free agency years (Unless I am missing reported club options)
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12:17 |
: So it’s really just a cost-control deal through arb? Maybe it speaks to the increasing difficulty of buying out FA years?
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12:17 |
: I think it’s fine for Cards
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12:17 |
: True or false: The Pirates are going to sign Neil Walker to a one year deal.
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12:19 |
: That story about Walker getting a NRI from the Royals is wild. He would have made more sense for Pirates before they added Moran
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12:20 |
: But there might be a point where he becomes a value play. They could use his LHH power
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12:20 |
: Shouldn’t pitchers just attack the top of the zone with the launch angle revolution? The way guys like Cody Bellinger and Kyle Tucker swing it seems obvious that’s how you beat them
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12:20 |
: That was the idea going into last year for a lot of folks, and some batters are weak in the upper third and above but ….
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12:22 |
: It didn’t really work last season
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12:22 |
: Pitchers are still more likely to be hurt up than down in the zone
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12:22 |
: I think Heyman reported two club options bringing total for Dejong to over 50 million if exercised
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12:22 |
UPDATED STORY: DeJong’s new deal includes two option years and total value, with those years would be slightly more… twitter.com/i/web/status/9…
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12:23 |
: This makes more sense
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12:23 |
: It’s not too big of a risk for the Cards, really
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12:24 |
: Has anyone seen DeJong and Trevor Story in the same place at the same time? Wondering if they are actually the same player
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12:25 |
: They are kind of similar but Story has even more swing and miss in his game
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12:25 |
: Can Lincecum be successful out of the pen throwing 93? It’s harder than he has been throwing, but not close to what he was doing out of the rotation when he was winning Cy Youngs
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12:26 |
: I think he can be effective if he can maintain 93 … The changeup is what made Lincecum, Lincecum and that should be enough velo to allow it to play
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12:26 |
: Hi Travis, this is your future you. Don’t post this in public, but the Mike Trout-led Phillies win the 2020 World Series. Does that information blow you away?
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12:26 |
: !!!!
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12:26 |
: That would be a helluva story
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12:27 |
: When strength of schedule gets factored into the FG projected standings, how do you see the AL wild card hopefuls’ records changing? Jays at 87 now, Angels 84 and Twins at 82. Gotta think they all converge around 84-85, no?
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12:28 |
: Twins have a huge edge in playing nearly 60 games against DET/KC/CHA
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12:28 |
: So, yeah, I see that group pretty log-jammed
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12:29 |
: The helluva story is that Jotcast has found away to communicate through time?
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12:29 |
: We always thought it was possible
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12:29 |
: Is it conceivable for a team to sign both Harper and Machado next year? Could the Phillies with a young core and payroll flexibility be that team?
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12:30 |
: The Philles should give 50 percent of the franchise to Harper, 50 percent to Machado and have those two players pay the owners
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12:30 |
: Or the former ownership group, that is
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12:30 |
: I’m guessing that’s going to be about $750 million in future salary guarantees. I can’t see a team likely doing that
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12:31 |
: Paw patrol…sooooo much better than peppa pig. That pig makes me want to start eating ham, bacon, and pork chops.
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12:31 |
: Ha. That’s so twisted but I get it
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12:31 |
: Just read the Billy Hamilton article — great read! Makes me think though: will we ever see another Ricky Henderson and if not, who in today’s game has the best chance (prospect or MLBer)? The guy’s numbers are just insane to think about in today’s game. 1400 stolen bases, .400 OBP, and 300 home runs.
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12:32 |
: Insane numbers
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12:32 |
: Henderson had two 10-win seasons, which, just looking, I guess i didn’t know
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12:33 |
: What would his roto $ be in 1982 and 1985?
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12:33 |
: What are the odds that at least one of the following FA — Moustakas, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn — will still lack a job by Opening Day?
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12:33 |
: Just one? Hmmm. 20%
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12:34 |
: The pitchers are in danger of losing further value by not being game ready
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12:34 |
: 750 million for Harper and Machado? That seems like A LOT
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12:35 |
: Maybe a little high, but Harper spec has been around $400m, I think
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12:35 |
: The strength of schedule adjustment has the Twins winning 100
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12:36 |
: There’s a case to be made it makes the Twins the WC1 favorite , though I like the Blue Jays and Twins better from pure talent standpoint
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12:36 |
: to add to swing changers – Mac Williamson on the Giants changed his hand position and added a leg kick. SSS alert, he’s 9 for 21 with 3 homers and 2 doubles to 6 k’s (compared to his playing time competitor Jarret Parker, who’s got 14k’s in 20 AB)
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12:36 |
: !!!! ALERT !!!
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12:37 |
: If you could hit up like two grapefruit league parks next week, which two are at the top of your list?
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12:38 |
: I haven’t been to many of the Atlantic-based parks …
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12:38 |
: Red Sox’ park is pretty cool … and I actually like McKenchie because it’s like a 100-year old stadium that gives you an even more intimate feel
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12:39 |
: Franchy Cordero. What do you think? Plate appearances in majors this year? Stats Forecast?
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12:39 | : As Jeff noted, he is the club’s most interesting player |
12:40 |
: I could see him having a 20-20 season but with pretty low efficiency
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12:41 |
: Will we ever see a Sub 0.50 Whip? It seems like we are trending towards it
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12:41 |
: From an insane reliever skillset, yeah
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12:41 |
: Were you able to talk with Votto during your time in Goodyear? If so, is there a pending article? Votto articles rock!
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12:41 |
: I was! And there will be
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12:42 |
: It’s like getting to speak with this gen’s Ted Williams so it’s worth trying to gain an audience when you can as a writer/reporter
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12:42 |
: Isn’t all the changes in baseball philosophy over the past decade (fly ball revolution, bullpen usage, etc) the reason why the game is the greatest? It’s constantly evolving but still the same basic game.
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12:43 |
: Fascinating changes … but it’s never changed so quickly, so fast, and I do think the lack of balls in play is a problem
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12:43 |
: If the Mets fall out of it will Jason deGrom be the most sought after commodity?
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12:43 |
: In that scenario, I’d be taking offers if I’m the Mets
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12:44 |
: Who you got for first pick in the Montreal/Portland expansion draft?
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12:44 |
: I really want to see another expansion draft
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12:44 |
: The trick to the sunflower seeds – store a small handful (like 10-12) in one side of your mouth. Transfer one seed to the empty side of your mouth and crack it with the teeth on that side. Extract the seed from the shell with your tongue, spit the seed into an empty paper cup and then repeat! Work on the small things and then you can work up to a whole mouthful! Good luck!
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12:45 |
: Where have you been all my life, John?
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12:45 |
: I loved that story about your Billy hamilton idea! Do those types of conversations happen between players and media often?
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12:46 |
: Thanks! … Not often, but on occasion. I know Eno had some similar experiences
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12:46 |
: MR. Sawchik, are you more excited for the season to start or more mildly disappointed that you now have to leave your house for work, where in the offseason it can pretty much be 100% working from the comfort of your idyllic midwestern home?
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12:47 |
: I’m very in favor of the season starting. I like to get out of the house and mix up work environments (It also helps I don’t have to be at the park until 1 am like the beat scribes )
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12:47 |
: Joey Votto is the Messiah
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12:47 |
: I cannot say for sure that he’s not. After all, he’s not aging
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12:47 |
: Wouldn’t the Hamilton experiment work best in a playoff scenario?
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12:48 |
: It could definitely work with WC rosters
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12:48 |
: When is baseball gonna shorten the season to 154 and create a tournament for non-playoff teams to play for draft position?
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12:48 |
: If tanking continues, this would be fun
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12:48 |
: When is Roger Cormier going to get a chat? Dude needs a chat.
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12:48 |
: That would be lit, as the kids say
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12:48 |
: Is it reasonable to expect Greg Bird to hit 35-40 Home Runs this year if he’s hitting behind Judge and Stanton? I look at him and see the next Aaron Judge. I know, it’s a lazy comparison b/c they are both in NY but respectively, Judge and Bird both crushed the ball in relatively small sample sizes in 2016 and 2017. Example: 2016 Judge had an average exit velo of 95.5 with a launch angle of 19.4 over 42 events. 2017 Bird had a lower exit velo but it was still top 30 at 90.8, with a launch angle of 19.0 in 95 events. If I’m a Yankees fan (which I’m not), I am really excited about Bird.
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12:48 |
: I’m all in on Greg Bird
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12:49 |
: If he stays healthy he’s going to hit 35 HRs
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12:49 |
: How much longer will/can the Orioles wait for the cost of Cobb or Lynn to drop even more? Or, do they really believe that some combination of Tillman, Cortes, Wright, and Castro can fill the last two spots in their rotation?
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12:49 |
: If the Orioles really want to having a puncher’s chance in the last year of Machado, they should be signing all available arms
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12:50 |
: Am i wrong to think Bellinger is capable of taking a big step forward? Think people are sleeping on him a bit, could see him making legit strides to knock down that K rate considering his elite athleticism.
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12:51 |
: It would be interesting if he knocked his K rate down like Kris Bryant did
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12:51 |
: I know we’re not supposed to care about ST stats but Fernando Tatis has a 1.000+ OPS right now and he just turned 19.
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12:52 |
: This is why Dave left us
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12:52 |
: I LOVE the top 10 prospect class this year, overall, in the game
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12:52 |
: Lot of unique talent
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12:53 |
: how do you feel about Lester’s new plan of practicing the “Jordan/Pippen bounce pass” strategy for throws to first? at that point, aren’t you running a higher risk of error and advance to scoring position than actually picking the guy off?
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12:53 |
: Wait, what?
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12:53 |
: Is this a thing?
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12:53 |
: Were the total moves by Cashman of buying low on Chapman, selling high and then resigning him up there with one of the best GM moves ever?
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12:53 |
: I love what Cashman has done in NYY over the last couple of seasons
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12:53 |
: What can we expect from Conforto this year? Over/Under 450 PA?
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12:54 |
: It’s such an unusual hitter injury I think we need to see him first
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12:54 |
: It’s a shame because I loved the swing pre-injury
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12:54 |
: What do you expect from Zack Greinke this year? Does regression overpower the effect of the humidor? Or is it reasonable to expect 2017 numbers?
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12:54 |
: The humidor is going to be a great friend. I’d expect a similar net line
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12:55 |
: Between Tatis, Urias, Cordero and Villanueva, the Padres have been one of the most exciting teams this spring. There’s no question, just wanted to say that.
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12:55 |
: This is why Dave left us
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12:55 |
: how do in season days off work for beat reporters if they exist? Did you get an away series every 2-3 weeks that you didn’t cover, etc?
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12:56 |
: Typically there is a “backup” beat writer who helps out on with road trips, etc
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12:56 |
: Most No. 1 writers probably do 60-65 percent of travel
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12:56 |
: There are some old-school dudes that would love to do all of it
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12:56 |
: I think the idea of an article whose premise is, “Talk to baseball players about weird ideas that nerds have.” Is a great one and you should write more of them.
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12:56 |
: I know a guy who can make this happen
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12:57 |
: No one is even willing to give me…. say… 1 year, 7 million? For a player who has been consistently above average throughout his career and has no off the field/clubhouse issues? The brewers could use me, no?
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12:57 |
: I’m with you, Neil. Kind of crazy. What day is it? March 5?
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12:57 |
: Was Billy Hamilton kinda joking around about your proposal, or was he being kinda a dick?
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12:58 |
: I think he was mostly caught off guard and joking. I don’t think he was being a dick.
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12:58 |
: At what point does an unsigned free agent pitcher start worrying about a lack of prep time with his eventual new team, catcher, etc.? And are we approaching that point yet?
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12:58 |
: That has to be a real concern at this point. Now inning’ projections are going to be affected and further reduce value
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12:59 |
: Especially on a short-term deal
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12:59 |
: What 2018 team is the least interesting?
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12:59 |
: Royals?
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12:59 |
: Tigers?
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12:59 |
: Twins have to be so happy
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1:00 |
: AL Central is a reason to have a more balanced schedule
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1:00 |
: Please rank for the 2018 season: Quintana, Tanaka, Cole…. is there a decent margin in between?
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1:01 |
: Really Curious to see what Cole does in Houston. I think he has some upside there. I’d be tempted to rank him 1 amongst those names
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1:01 |
: Was it inevitable with the game trending younger that a bunch of older FA would get iced like this? Are we going to start seeing more guys retiring at 34-36 than 37-40?
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1:01 |
: Yep and yep
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1:01 |
: Mariners. The Mariners are boring, unfortunately.
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1:01 |
: Big Maple, tho
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1:02 |
: Tell me something about the Braves
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1:02 |
: They’re in a great spot and have a ton of cash available going forward
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1:02 |
: Braves-Phillies could become quite the NL East rivalry
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1:03 |
: Is it not better for the player pool if the guys who have made $30 million retire earlier to make room for someone who has made far, far less?
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1:03 |
: The Workers really need to unite for the next cba
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1:03 |
: does Fangraphs have a new ME or is it Carson by default?
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1:04 |
: There is no new managing editor. It’s now become something of an oligarchy with Carson probably planning a bloody palace coup
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1:04 |
: I’m going to Arizona this week for to see some spring training action, what do you recommend? Just have fun watching baseball?
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1:05 |
: The teams are much closer together and centrally located in Arizona so I would just focus on watching baseball and maybe do a day trip to Sedona
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1:05 |
: Expectations for Schwarber? I keep drawing parralels between him leaning out and Conforto last year, though with zero expectations on defense
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1:05 |
: I’m still a believer
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1:06 |
: Who would have thought that the reason Dave left is just because he REALLY likes Spring Training games…
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1:06 |
: I didn’t have that either
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1:06 |
: which Matt, Chapman or Olson?
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1:07 |
: I want to see where Olson picks up
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1:07 |
: Alright folks, thanks for stopping by!
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1:07 |
: I will be back next Monday. Until then, be good and do good
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A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Re: beat reporters and days off in-season. As Travis said, it’s common to have backups to give the beat guys relief from the daily grind, but even some of that time “off” is spent developing features, columns, analyses, networking with other beat guys. The assumption is that the extra time will be made up in the offseason. Some papers build extra vacation time into the beat writer position — I know of one that specified in its Newspaper Guild contract that vacation time maxed out at four weeks for most, but seven weeks for reporters of major sports.