Twins Better Off Without Cuddyer
It wasn’t dire for the Minnesota Twins to re-sign Michael Cuddyer. Instead of bringing back the former first round pick, the Twins have reportedly agreed to a deal with Josh Willingham. Terry Ryan can talk all he wants, but Willingham’s signing seems to indicate that Cuddyer will have to find a new team this off-season. While fans might be upset about losing one of their longest-tenured players, the Twins are better off allowing Cuddyer to test the waters elsewhere.
Cuddyer may have been with the Twins his entire career, but he wasn’t about to offer them a “home-town discount.” The Twins reportedly offered Cuddyer a three-year, $25 million deal. After he delayed his decision for too long, the Twins were able to sign Willingham to a slightly cheaper three-year, $21 million contract. While Cuddyer posted a higher WAR than Willingham last season, he’s not worth an additional $4 million when you consider all the factors.
It’s easy to compare Cuddyer and Willingham and see some similarities. Both players are 32 years old and play corner outfield positions (and not particularly well). While Cuddyer was a full win better than Willingham last season, Willingham has been a full win better than Cuddyer when you add their three year averages.
Cuddyer’s 2011 slash line of .284/.346/.459 is actually slightly better than Willingham’s .246/.332/.477, but Willingham also had to play in a tougher ballpark. According to the 2011 park factors, O.co Coliseum suppressed hits and home runs slightly more than Target Field. So while it looks like Willingham may have started his decline phase last season, some of his struggles can be attributed to his park. Even though Willingham also experienced a decline in his walk rate — due to a new approach at the plate — he still walked at a higher rate than Cuddyer last season. If Willingham’s new ballpark boosts his offensive performance to previous levels, he’s a good bet to be slightly better than Cuddyer going forward.
Not only are the Twins getting a slightly better player at a cheaper price, but they will also gain an additional draft pick once Cuddyer signs with another team. Under the old CBA, both Cuddyer and Willingham were considered Type A free-agents, meaning any team that signed either player would have to surrender their 1st round draft pick. With the new CBA, Willingham no longer carried that designation, meaning the team that signed him would be able to keep their 1st round pick. Cuddyer, on the other hand, remained a Type A free-agent. By signing Willingham over Cuddyer, the Twins not only are able to keep their first round pick, but will actually gain a draft pick once another team signs Cuddyer.
While it might be hard for fans to say goodbye to Cuddyer, the Twins made the right move here. Even though both players can be viewed as similar, the additional draft pick the Twins gain by allowing Cuddyer to walk makes this swap a clear win for Minnesota.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
How dumb were the twins to surrender a supplemental pick for the right to overpay Matt Capps? Terry Ryan should be fired!!!
it was unforgivably stupid.
As dumb as trading a top 50 prospect to acquire Matt Capps?
In the end, nobody really wanted to ink on Ramos because he didn’t have much MLB time. It was an unfortunate side effect of Mauer.
Your brushing aside “I like the players” as nothing. Is there a good reason to do that?
I’ve always wondered if there isn’t additional fan loyalty built by keeping players for the long haul, so I’d be curious to know your answer.
I’m only one person, but I’m finding it increasingly hard to follow the A’s lately. It seems like every time I watch a game I’ve got to explain to the wife who this random new guy is after she asks what happened to so-and-so former player. Granted, I don’t live it Oakland, so perhaps I won’t hurt their bottom line; but 2011 was the first year in a while I didn’t pay to see the A’s play locally.
Wins increase fan loyalty more than names.
I think that the CBA actually changed both Cuddyer and Willingham’s status so neither one will require the signing time to forfeit a draft pick.
Correct, both are “modified Type A’s.” But the Twins will still get a 1st rounder and a supplemental rounder for letting him go. The only difference from the old Type A system is that they no longer get the 1st round pick from the old team. Rather, an extra pick immediately before the signing team’s pick is created out of thin air.
I think Cuddyer is a solid player, but he is still incredibly overrated. Seems to alternate between good and bad seasons. Teams seem to overvalue him because he can play multiple positions. He also had a good, but not great bat and he’s had seasons where his bat was awful. Willingham is probably an upgrade.
They also overvalue his personality. Super nice guy, does card tricks, talks to little kids and the media.
Still. Not as valuable as they seem to think.
Is there sabermetric work on that that I don’t know about, or are you just pulling it out of your preconceptions?
It is hard to compare Willingham & Cuddyer w/o mentioning the injury risk. Willingham has only averaged 121 games the last 4 yrs (back & other injuries). Cuddyer has been fairly durable. With all the high risk injury players on the MIN team, I would not have added another one.
I see now that Willingham will fit right in on the DL team.
Odds seem very good that the Twins will now do their best to convert Willingham back to not pulling the ball as much.