Under the Radar
As the season rounds the corner and heads for the home stretch, it’s pretty easy to separate the haves from the have-nots. Whether discussing players like Dustin Pedroia and Jose Bautista leading the charge on the WAR leaderboards, or Adam Dunn and Tsuyoshi Nishioka facing the opposite direction, it’s certainly not difficult to skim the top or bottom of the lists. With today’s entry however, we’ll focus on a few players who have flown under the radar, perhaps outperforming expectations or simply shining despite relative obscurity.
As I’m fully aware, it’s hard to fathom a scenario in which a Yankee could fly under the radar, but for a second straight season, outfielder Brett Gardner has done just that. Gardner’s triple-slash of .285/.366/.404 is plenty nice for a leadoff hitter in front of the second-highest scoring team in the American League, but it’s his defense that sets him apart. At 19.0 runs above average for left fielders, Gardner is far and away the best defensive player this season, with the next closest checking in at 15.8 (Pedroia). It’s the second straight season that the swift lefty has paced the majors defensively, as Gardner checked in at 24.9 runs above average on his way to a 6.2 WAR mark in 2010. With limited power, there’s a very good chance that this is Gardner’s ceiling, but as a left fielder that can fill in capably in center (and has swiped bags at an 82.4% career rate), there’s little doubt the Yankees are thrilled with his development.
Just over one year ago, Yunel Escobar couldn’t get out of Atlanta fast enough. Media members couldn’t stand him, his effort and production were under fire, and his potential looked as though it had passed him by. Now in 2011, Escobar has taken very well to his new digs north of the border, as he’s triple-slashed .297/.378/.428 and has quietly turned himself into the player he was destined to become after his exciting 2007 debut with the Braves. Checking in at a WAR of 4.3, Escobar ranks as the finest shortstop in the American League and only trails stalwarts Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes league-wide. Since the deal, Escobar is hitting .289/.364/.402, while Alex Gonzalez checks in at .237/.273/.360. Thus, as a result it’s probably safe to say that Alex Anthopoulos got the better end of that deal, though that seems to be a recurring theme.
Much like teammate Chase Headley in 2010, Padres centerfielder Cameron Maybin has quietly put together a solid season in cavernous Petco Park. Headley only hit .264/.327/.375, but was propelled by his 16.5 defensive runs above replacement level to post a very comely 4.9 WAR. Similarly, Maybin, dealt from the Marlins for a pair of relievers in the offseason, has been propelled by his defensive numbers (5.8 runs above replacement) to be listed among the 35 most valuable players across the league. For a little context, Maybin has been more valuable than Brian McCann, Mike Stanton, Carlos Beltran, and Jay Bruce. If nothing else, that certainly proves the old adage that useful everyday players should not be traded for relief help, even if Edward Mujica had one of the finest (and strangest) relief lines in baseball last year. Are you listening, Bill Smith?
In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com
quick hoyer, frieri for lomo.
Isn’t it funny how many GMs operate under those same procedures?
For some reason nobody seems to notice that Friedman and Hoyer pluck arms from left and right in the offseason and always seem to cobble together a palpable bullpen.
#ohwell
Well, the original master of the bullpen resides in Arizona now. Its been noticed, but mostly to comment that quantity seems to create quality in the bullpen.
Escobar wasn’t traded for Alex Gonzalez alone. The minor league shortstop included with Gonzalez, Tyler Pastornicky, has hit .373/.414/.422 since his call-up to AAA Gwinnett. He also has stolen 27 bases between AA and AAA this year. He is expected to take over as the starting SS for the Braves next season.
I despised the trade of Escobar for Gonzalez and I have to think how much better the Braves would be right now if they had not made this trade. However, it is shortsighted to say that AA got the better end of this deal when we have no idea how valuable young Mr. Pastornicky will be in his career. Escobar is also known to jog leisurely up to 1B, argue with umpires, and take a week off every time he stubbs his toe while Pastornicky has been described as a “gym rat” type of player.
AA may be a great GM, but Frank Wren is no dummy either. He has “won” quite a few trades too and he may end up even winning this one.
I think it’s a stretch to say that the front office expects Pastornicky to take over SS in 2012. They’re still not even sure if he’ll be able to stick at SS…..
And it’s highly unlikely Wren ‘wins’ this trade, not after that extension they laid on Escobar.
I’m not sure where you get that information. I haven’t read anything that says that they don’t think he will stay at shortstop. (There is speculation that Matt Lipka will not stay at SS, but not TP). If he continues to hit around .300 at AAA I don’t think there is any doubt he gets a Spring Training Invitation with a chance to earn a spot on the roster.
The Jays signed Escobar signed to a nice extension. However, they also have to deal with his volatile personality.
Pastornicky wasn’t even considered a top talent in the Jays system, ranking 15th in 09 and wasn’t even considered in 2010.
AA did get the better end of the deal. He has a cheap shortstop for many years to come who is the BEST in the league.
Pastornicky is still a prospect, and not even considered a top prospect for that matter.
Heck, David Cooper is hitting over.370 for the Jays and he’s not even considered a top 5 talent in the system.
I figured Jays fans would be here bashing Pastornicky. He has blossomed since coming over to the Braves farm system. He is now in the top 10 of a loaded Braves farm system. When he was with the Jays he was projected to be a utility player. Since working with the Braves minor league hitting coaches he is now projected to be a solid every day player.
Yunel will be 29 years old next year so it’s not like he is a young player. He also isn’t exactly cheap either. And then there is that personality which reduces his value.
Anyway, my point is that Pastornicky is still a prospect. No one knows how good he will be. Therefore this trade can’t be “graded” until we know what he contributes to the Braves in the next 6 years.
@JT
Explain to me how $5M annually for a 4-5WAR shortstop isn’t cheap.
his contract is fantastic
Amazingly, Blue Jays fans are overtaking Yankee & Red Sox fans in arrogance.
That triple slash is only for a little over 100 PAs and is boosted by the .373 average coming from a .400 BABIP, which does not exist at the major league level. Generously reducing the BA to 300 would basically kill Pastornicky’s triple slash. No power and few walks leaves little upside at the plate. Escobar is elite and you’re talking about a prospect with a career minor league triple slash below .700 like Wren’s side of the trade wasn’t a joke?
AA wins, but I understand the deal from ATLs side. Escobar was considered a BA only SS with a decent glove. He managed extra patience in his rookie and 3rd year to push his value, but without the power you had to wonder if that would last.
Then, a player with that history crashes for a half season, middling/low power becomes none and the patience vanishes. You had to figure the odds a 28 year old with that history rebounds to above average are around 50%.
Why do Jays fans have to bash Pastornicky? I don’t get it. It’s like you want him to fail just to prove that AA “won” the trade. Can’t it be that both sides “won”? I’m really happy that Yunel has done well for you guys. He was one of my favorites when he played in Atlanta.
Tyler doesn’t have much power but neither does Yunel (outside of Rogers Center). He DOES have a ton of speed which Yunel does not have.
I’m not sure what you’re talking about when you say he takes “few walks”. Yunel, at age 24, played a full year at AA and had 59 walks and 77 strikeouts. So far this year in AA/AAA, at age 21, Tyler has 32 walks and 45 strikeouts. Given the big age difference that isn’t a significant difference.
I expect Tyler to have something like a .290/.360/.415 slash line in the majors. He also projects to be a lead-off type hitter who can steal 30 – 40 bases a year.
No, Wren’s side of the trade wasn’t a “joke”. He also used Tim Collins to pick up Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth last year who helped the Braves get to the playoffs.
So you expect Pastornicky to have a 415 slugging in the major leagues even though this is the first year that he’s slugged over 415(416 is where his slugging currently resides) and you expect him to get on base at a 360 clip in the major leagues even though this is the first season that he’s gotten on base at a 360 clip(360 is where his OBP is this season)?
Your criticisms are getting a little ridiculous. No offense.
“Tyler doesn’t have much power but neither does Yunel (outside of Rogers Center). ”
Yunel has a 131 ISO this year with the Jays. In 2009 with the Braves he had a…wait for it…140 ISO. He’s hitting for the same power he did as a Brave. Playing in Toronto hasn’t given him a power boost, he’s hitting for the same power he did as a Brave. I haven’t checked his home/road splits, but the point is his ISO is the same. Which kind of cancels out your argument.
I’m not bashing Pastornicky, I’m just being realistic. I like him, and think he’ll be a solid major leaguer. A 373/.414/.422 line is intriguing, but it shows a complete lack of power and a lack of on base skills. The plate discipline has always impressed me (the K:BB points to him possibly outproducing his minor league line), but he looks more like a 2-3 win grinder then a 4-5 WAR SS. Which isn’t a criticism – it’s just that he’s been a 650-750 OPS SS before his short stay in AAA.
” Escobar is also known to jog leisurely up to 1B, argue with umpires, and take a week off every time he stubbs his toe”
This seems like a bunch of nonsense to me. Cause I’m watching the same Escobar you did, and I never saw him leisurely jog to first, I see him argue no more or less with umps then other players have, and I don’t see him take a week off. You keep saying he has a volatile personality, but again, I think this is blatantly wrong. In the same way you argue that Jays fans are shorting Pastornicky, I think you’re shorting Escobar when you make those remarks.
He gets criticized in the same vein as Carlos Beltran – players who have a ton of talent and make the game look easy are often criticized of being lazy when they make a mistake. It’s not a fair criticism, and in this instance it’s unwarranted.
As to your comment of Ankiel helping the Braves…I don’t think so. He posted a 651 OPS with the Braves last year. Farnsworth had a 5+ ERA. I’m too lazy to check the FIP, but neither of those players helped the Braves.
Wren makes a lot of good deals, but he makes a lot of bad ones too.
Terrific point. It was actually my notion that the age discrepancy between Gonzalez and Escobar (and Escobar’s current standing in the AL among SS) that helps swing the deal in favor of AA.
But again, good point. There’s a good chance that Pastornicky can be a very good ML SS. Should that occur for a handful of years, Mr. Wren did well.
Thanks!! This could end up being a win/win trade with both teams getting what they wanted.
Deals like that are rare, aren’t they?
They certainly are.
No there isn’t. There isn’t a “good chance” that Pastornicky can be a very good ML shortstop.
Sorry if that came off harsh
Have been trying to find a place in this thread to simply note that Jesus, er AA, also gave up Tim Collins in that deal. Having a pretty decent season as not a LOOGY and 22 YO for the Royals.
Braves fans and their slights on Yunel’s character…
Judging by comments like those on the Braves’ beat reporter’s blogs, most of this sentiment is born out of racism and homophobia – or simply an inability to accept those that are slightly different and lack language skills.
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2011/06/20/yunel-escobar-is-back-in-town-with-jays/
Have fun with Pastornicky playing major league shortstop every day!!!
And how is signing Yunel to 2yr/10mil with another 2yr/10mil on club option expensive? Seems like the steal of the year for the third best shortstop in baseball. Heck, the Blue Jays will now be paying Mark Teahan over 5 mil next year to chill on the bench and collect 100 PA.
Also what makes Braves minor league hitting instructors vastly superior to Blue Jays minor league hitting instructors?? (Referring to your comment below here as well…)
I’m not seeing the homophobia or racism. The problem was getting ejected for tossing his bat, distracting his own pitcher by constantly whistling, dropping lazy pop-ups, refusing to run out grounders, not attempting to get to know anyone.
Escobar is literally the only player I remember in my lifetime having this problem on aBonby Cox team. Furcal never had a problem, he was flashy and didn’t speak the language well.
Are you seriously playing the racism card?
Homophobia? I had no idea Yunel was a little light in the loafers. Perhaps you were confused by someone calling him swift of foot? Or is that a benign way of calling him a fag?
I totally agree that the Atlanta area sportswriters are arrogant lazy twits who refuse to learn Spanish and then complained that they had to get an interpreter to speak to Yunel. They helped to sour the Atlanta fans on him.
I was one of Yunel’s biggest fans when he was in Atlanta. He is a super talented guy. However he has MAJOR character flaws.
Unless Yunel is gay I don’t think you even know what homophobia means. As for racism, you can believe that this has nothing to do with it. Martin Prado is the most beloved Atlanta Brave outside of Chipper Jones. And Jose Constanza is a new fan favorite.
By the way here is some good information on Pastornicky:
http://seedlingstostars.com/2011/07/28/can-tyler-pastornicky-help-the-braves-already/
Atlanta has a couple of well respected hitting coaches in their system, Jamie Dismuke and Lee Elia. Both of have worked with Tyler.
The Braves always run talented guys who have some flash and a casual style out of town. Remember how they ran Andruw Jones out of town after only 11 short years?
Blue Jays fans really are the worst. I’d rather talk to 10 diehards from South Boston for hours than one annoying Blue Jays fan for ten minutes. Wait, what makes Blue Jays fans different than other fans?
Glad Gardner is finally getting some recognition. He’d be a star on a lot of other teams.
Because, of course, playing on the Yankees is a detriment to one’s fame.
It can be. Obviously it provides a much bigger stage – imagine if Thome were on the NYY, the sports media would be bonkers right now! – but that stage is crowded with bigger players, too. On a team led by Jeter, Granderson, Teixeira, Rodriguez and Cano – in short, guys who’s value is more appealing to traditional stats – it’s easy for a great player like Gardner to get swallowed up.
As someone who lives in the greater NY area, and consequently sees basically all Yankees all the time, they almost never mention Gardner. If he played on a team like the Cleveland Indians, a decent but not great team, I bet I’d hear about him a lot more. It’s a matter of overshadowing more than anything.
That said, if he ever does want to get national attention, he is playing in the perfect place, ultimately.
I think it’s a low glamour skill set, to be honest. It’s odd, too, because it’s a more valuable skill set that a guy like say, Carl Crawford (I suppose it’s debatable), but yet would Gardner ever get 100-plus million as a free agent? I’d have to say not even if he continues as a 6+ WAR guy.
now that gardner has established himself as an everyday player he needs to move to CF and grandy to left
No kidding. Good call.
i wonder if gradner is the one hurting grandersons urz
hes running down balls that both granderson and gardner can get to but because gardner gets their first he makes the catch
Not sure there. Suppose it is the CF’s duty to call off all comers, but I don’t know if there’s a way to quantify that.
Comparing him to playing at Comerica would be tough because Comerica is so much more cavernous AND he never played with any LF even close to as talented defensively as Gardner.
As someone who watches the Yankees everyday, I can say that from my own eyes it looks like it’s just NYY policy to concede to Gardner at any time. Whether it’s Jeter ranging back or Granderson going to his right, they just let Gardner take it.
The other day, A ball was clearly in CF territory and Granderson clearly had it but Gardner swooped in and easily made the play.
Obviously this is just my eyes but I don’t think it’s a reach to say that Gardner is “stealing” Granderson’s UZR.
I love it when people take shots at Yunel’s character and personality…really makes their argument about how the braves won in the trade too look even more ridiculous. Pastornicky is an old Ricciardi draft pick, low ceiling reach majors quickly type player, would not be surprised if he turns into another Russ Adams (who?…exactly). Gonzalez is worth a bag of balls and bats, and Collins was traded for spare parts Ankiel and Farnsworth who are long gone. You can argue Atlanta did alright in the short term with the trade, but long-term Toronto won.
I don’t think anyone really argues you got more talent. I just don’t think that the Braves really cared.
Of course the Braves wouldn’t ‘care’. When you clearly got owned in a trade and lose a player that ends up becoming one of the best shortstops in the game, why would you ‘care’? 🙂
What I’m saying is, they knew they were taking a loss on the talent side. They didn’t ‘care’ because rightly or wrongly they didn’t like Escobar the person.
There’s no reason to trade the guy if your just looking at talent. So obviously talent didn’t play a bug part in their decision. If they didn’t make the decision based on talent, then why would they evaluate it looking back in those terms?
Even if Pastornicky turns out to be a decent MLB player, I still don’t see how the Jays lost or even tied with the Braves in this trade. By the time Pastornicky comes up, Yunel will still be a star shortstop for the Jays and by the time Yunel starts declining, Hech will be up for the Jays. Pastornicky didn’t even ever have a spot on this team.
Can we get back to just what the hell Escobar’s representation was thinking?
I mean as someone pointed out with Mark Teahen, veteran utility fielders get comparable pay.
Many of the players listed are under-valued because they get a lot of their value from UZR.
Are we that confident in single season UZR?
I know single season UZR is less effective in determining true talent, but I’m also uncertain on the consensus on it’s accuracy.
BABIP can inflate WAR, but it also represents what happened on the field. Are we as confident in UZR?
Gardner might be the exception because he’s got more data, and he’s a bonus because he’s a CF playing LF like Crawford.
Gardner is the type of player you expect to see on a team like the Rays. You have to wonder hoq oftwn teams have contacted NYY as to his availability in a trade?
probably often, but chances are he’s pretty much at the top of cashman’s untouchable list
A left fielder is never the best defensive player in any season. If he was, they’d stick him in center. If the Orioles had put Cal Ripken at first base, he’d have been head-and-shoulders above all other first basemen. And still way less valuable than he was as a good shortstop.
And the Gardner/Granderson defensive numbers stink like herring sitting out for 3 days. Obviously Gardner is taking ‘either’ balls that the centerfielder takes on other teams. Itself a sign that he’s a darn good leftfielder. Just nothing like those raw numbers suggest.
He already has the fact that he plays left field built into WAR. the idea is that the best left fielder in the league compared to average can be better than the best center fielder in the league compared to league average. That doesn’t sound far fetched that much to me.
I’ve just gone through UZR. I didn’t find a positional adjustment, but then I didn’t wade through the whole thing. Only where I figured one should be found. If there is a positional adjustment in UZR re centerfielders/leftfielders, what is it? How many runs is it worth?
Placing a centerfielder into left field doesn’t magically make him a better outfielder. You’re just now comparing him to worse outfielders than before. So of course he rises higher above that now-lower baseline. You’re positionally adjusting him upwards for playing an easier position at which they place worse fielders.
I’ll stick by my initial argument. It’s preposterous to conclude that Brett Gardner is far and away the best defensive fielder this season. Until I see what positional adjustment there is, I’m confident it’s preposterous to say he’s the best, period. He may even be nowhere near as defensively valuable as the best shortstops and centerfielders.
@Richie: It’s built into WAR, not UZR. You’re correct that UZR is relative to positional average.
MGL states rather explicitly that UZR does accurately reflect what took place on the field, but 3 years is needed for “true talent”. I don;t have the knowledge to evaluate the accuracy of that comment, but it’s tough for me to wrap my mind around the scenario of Gardner and/or Crawford being twice as valuable of a defender as any other LF (trying to visual a “coverage map” to see how it would look).
Yunel Escobar is not UZR inflated (correctingmyself). He’s consistently slightly above average fielder, but his WAR jumpds up as his power does … but he’s been a consistent 2.5-5 WAR player. ATL must have thought that his pouting and lack of effort was going to continue to decline.
Maybin is also NOT UZR inflated (correcting myself again). He does have a 0.8 WAR swing in defense from last to this year, but his value is a league average (wOBA) bat while playing a premium defensive position (and playing it a little above average).
So, changing my tune, these guys aren’t under-valued because of UZR, but they’re being undervalued because they get their batting value in ways that are not obvious in the traditional eye (wOBA) while playing plus defense at a premium position. Good for them.
As for wrapping your mind around a defender being twice as valuable as another:
You don’t have to get to twice as many balls as some other LF, or be twice as valuable as some other LF (there’s no way to establish a baseline for the value of just defense, as there is also none for hitting, since contracts are written for total players), to have twice the UZR. You have to save twice as many runs compared to average as some other LF. A simplified example: the average LF by definition has a UZR of 0, and perhaps he reaches 50 fly balls over some number of chances. I might reach 60, and have a positive UZR. You might reach 70, and have a UZR twice as positive.
Twice as valuable was a poor choice of words by me.
+4 FRuns is “twice as valuable” as +2 FRuns, even though the fielders are nearly identical in quality.
What I am wondering is how Crawford was 30+ FRuns better than the second best fielding LF from 2008-2010, but now is just a 0.7 FRun LF in 2011.
I was looking up some of the numbers and reading into the aspects of UZR to try and answer the question for myself. I saw that Carlos Lee was the 2nd most valuable fielding LF this year (+7 FRuns, Gardner +19 FRuns) and decided it’s not worth looking into.
I’ve read all the UZR stuff here and at Tango’s blog, and I’m still unsure of it’s accuracy.
I would love to believe that defense is appropriately weighted in WAR, and that defense really is that important, and that we really can measure it that accurately, but I’m uncertain.
How many players couldn’t get along with Bobby Cox? Ever? Off the top of my head, I can’t recall a single other one. Obviously Escobar was a cancer who they simply had to get rid of. Who then got his act together in new surroundings. Happens all the time.
Like with Colby Rasmus, for example. And Brett Lawrie.
I’m seeing a theme developing here!
I think the theme you’re noticing is that young talents don’t like to be told that their performance needs work or their attitude stinks.
That theme has been around forever.
What seems to be happening now is that the balance of power has shifted to the players … so when the manager says something to the player, the player wants (and expects) a new manager.
I think this situation will be even worse or more extreme with thie next generation of players that is used to having a private hitting/pitching coach and views the manager as “the guy that writes my name 3rd in the lineup”.
There’s going to be more guys like Bryce Harper in the regard that they are most prominent in travel teams and/or showcase leagues, where their talent is far more important than anything the coach does. These player types are going to have next to no use for the coach/manager. They have private instructors since age 12, and they aren’t going to want to hear advise from someone that doesn’t “know them”. It’s going to be a whole new dynamic.
You mention Rasmus, and we all know the situation where he chooses to listen to his dad over what the organization wants him to do (stop hacking). We’ve also seen Chris Lincecum tell college teams that if they tinker with his son’s mechanics, Tim won’t be playing for them (and that transferred to the pros). We’re going to start seeing players that have the opinion that they “know more than the coaches” and “the organization needs them more than they need the organization” (and they may be right).
As long as young players stop with the Bryce Harper eye black, I can deal with everything else. That dumb-butt eye black is killing me (like outfielders wearing sunglasses on the bill of their cap).
UZR is sorely misinterpreted.
Gardner the best fielder…..why the need to be so F-ing stupid on this site?
Not even a Braves fan, but any calculation that states Maybin’s value over McCann’s is flawed somehow.
The wrinkle in the calculation that is evading you is that WAR is a cumulative stat, and Maybin has played 10 more games than McCann this year.
No, the real wrinkle in that catcher defense is misrepresented in UZR.
Attaboy, Brandon. Good work. Was whistling a happy tune when I saw the byline of this post.
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