Waiting on Wieters

Before there was Steven Strasburg, unstoppable pitching cyborg or Bryce Harper, then-16-year-old Sports Illustrated cover boy, there was Matt Wieters. A switch-hitting, power-hitting force with enough athleticism in his 6-5, 230 pound frame to remain behind the dish, Wieters was selected out of Georgia Tech with the fifth pick in the 2007 amateur draft.

At the time, Baseball America said that Wieters could eventually “post averages near .280 with 30-homer potential in the big leagues,” and that despite his stature, he possessed “soft hands, good footwork and well-above-average arm strength, as evidenced by the 96 mph heat he has shown from the mound.” The $6 million man proceeded to terrorize minor league pitchers, batting a combined .343/.438/.576 at the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. He also rated well defensively, according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone numbers.

Called up to the majors late last May, Wieters went on to post a .288/.340/.412 line in 385 plate appearances. That might not look off-the-charts good, but a .330 wOBA from a 23-year-old catcher, in the AL East, is extremely impressive. In four months of playing time, Wieters racked up 1.6 WAR. Heading into 2010, CHONE projected Wieters to rake to the tune of .289/.355/.460 (.356 wOBA), adding a couple of runs in defensive value while compiling 3.9 WAR. That’s the sort of production worthy of a Chuck Norris-style facts page (did you know Scott Boras hired Matt Wieters as his agent?)

Instead of building upon his successful rookie campaign, Wieters has stumbled somewhat over the first two months of the 2010 season. In 194 trips to the plate, he’s hitting .240/.314/.337, with a .290 wOBA. He’s holding his own defensively, rating as slightly above-average in controlling the running game after being a couple runs below average last season, but Wieters’ 0.5 WAR falls well short of his lofty preseason forecast.

Part of Wieters’ mild offensive showing can be explained by a .292 batting average on balls in play, down from last season’s .356 mark. His expected BABIP, based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, is .324. Still, Wieters’ current plate approach isn’t conducive to putting up robust numbers with the lumber.

While Wieters’ walk rate has increased from 7.3 percent in ’09 to 9.3 percent this year, his plate discipline hasn’t been as sharp. At first glance, it looks like he has become more selective — Wieters swung at 47.2 percent of pitches in 2009, but just 43.1 percent in 2010. But, it’s the type of pitches that he’s going after that’s concerning. In ’09, Wieters chased 25.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. This year, he’s hacking at 29.7 percent of out-of-zone pitches. He took a cut at 70.2 percent of in-zone offerings in ’09, but just 59.2 percent in 2010.

The MLB averages for O-Swing and Z-Swing differ between the two years, but even as a percentage of the league average, Wieters is swinging at more would-be balls and keeping the bat on the shoulder against more strikes:

Chasing more junk pitches and watching more in-zone pitches go by isn’t a recipe for offensive success. Wieters’ first pitch strike percentage, 53 last season, has climbed to 63.9 percent in 2010 (58 percent MLB average). He hit a ground ball 41.9 percent in ’09, but he’s chopping the ball into the grass 49.3 percent in 2010. That’s obviously not going to help in the power department, and Wieters’ ISO has dipped from .124 to .097.

All of this sounds pessimistic, but it’s important to remember that Wieters just turned 24 at the end of May. He thrashed minor league pitching, earning glowing scouting reports. He was a league-average hitter as a rookie playing the most physically taxing position on the field, in the game’s most competitive environment. Wieters’ rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a .275/.342/.413 triple-slash, with a .336 wOBA. Many teams would be thrilled to get that sort of production out of a competent defensive catcher. While he must hone his strike zone control, there’s still plenty of time for Wieters to reach those star-level expectations.