Waiting on Wieters
Before there was Steven Strasburg, unstoppable pitching cyborg or Bryce Harper, then-16-year-old Sports Illustrated cover boy, there was Matt Wieters. A switch-hitting, power-hitting force with enough athleticism in his 6-5, 230 pound frame to remain behind the dish, Wieters was selected out of Georgia Tech with the fifth pick in the 2007 amateur draft.
At the time, Baseball America said that Wieters could eventually “post averages near .280 with 30-homer potential in the big leagues,” and that despite his stature, he possessed “soft hands, good footwork and well-above-average arm strength, as evidenced by the 96 mph heat he has shown from the mound.” The $6 million man proceeded to terrorize minor league pitchers, batting a combined .343/.438/.576 at the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. He also rated well defensively, according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone numbers.
Called up to the majors late last May, Wieters went on to post a .288/.340/.412 line in 385 plate appearances. That might not look off-the-charts good, but a .330 wOBA from a 23-year-old catcher, in the AL East, is extremely impressive. In four months of playing time, Wieters racked up 1.6 WAR. Heading into 2010, CHONE projected Wieters to rake to the tune of .289/.355/.460 (.356 wOBA), adding a couple of runs in defensive value while compiling 3.9 WAR. That’s the sort of production worthy of a Chuck Norris-style facts page (did you know Scott Boras hired Matt Wieters as his agent?)
Instead of building upon his successful rookie campaign, Wieters has stumbled somewhat over the first two months of the 2010 season. In 194 trips to the plate, he’s hitting .240/.314/.337, with a .290 wOBA. He’s holding his own defensively, rating as slightly above-average in controlling the running game after being a couple runs below average last season, but Wieters’ 0.5 WAR falls well short of his lofty preseason forecast.
Part of Wieters’ mild offensive showing can be explained by a .292 batting average on balls in play, down from last season’s .356 mark. His expected BABIP, based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, is .324. Still, Wieters’ current plate approach isn’t conducive to putting up robust numbers with the lumber.
While Wieters’ walk rate has increased from 7.3 percent in ’09 to 9.3 percent this year, his plate discipline hasn’t been as sharp. At first glance, it looks like he has become more selective — Wieters swung at 47.2 percent of pitches in 2009, but just 43.1 percent in 2010. But, it’s the type of pitches that he’s going after that’s concerning. In ’09, Wieters chased 25.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. This year, he’s hacking at 29.7 percent of out-of-zone pitches. He took a cut at 70.2 percent of in-zone offerings in ’09, but just 59.2 percent in 2010.
The MLB averages for O-Swing and Z-Swing differ between the two years, but even as a percentage of the league average, Wieters is swinging at more would-be balls and keeping the bat on the shoulder against more strikes:
Chasing more junk pitches and watching more in-zone pitches go by isn’t a recipe for offensive success. Wieters’ first pitch strike percentage, 53 last season, has climbed to 63.9 percent in 2010 (58 percent MLB average). He hit a ground ball 41.9 percent in ’09, but he’s chopping the ball into the grass 49.3 percent in 2010. That’s obviously not going to help in the power department, and Wieters’ ISO has dipped from .124 to .097.
All of this sounds pessimistic, but it’s important to remember that Wieters just turned 24 at the end of May. He thrashed minor league pitching, earning glowing scouting reports. He was a league-average hitter as a rookie playing the most physically taxing position on the field, in the game’s most competitive environment. Wieters’ rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a .275/.342/.413 triple-slash, with a .336 wOBA. Many teams would be thrilled to get that sort of production out of a competent defensive catcher. While he must hone his strike zone control, there’s still plenty of time for Wieters to reach those star-level expectations.
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
He’ll be fine. The swing percentages tell me he’s getting fooled on pitch selection – waiting on a fastball but getting the change-up, that kind of thing, hence the higher out-of-zone swing rate and lower in-zone rate. The league made some adjustments and now he’s figuring out how to adjust back. Second-half of the year he’ll figure it out.
Are there some comps for players who just dominated minor league pitching at a fairly young age but were entirely mediocre hitters in MLB?
Comp? Well, there’s always another hotshot kid who, like Wieters, was drafted out of college, immediately mashed in the minors, and has struggled in the majors: Alex Gordon. I don’t know if he’s a GOOD comp, but he’s the first name that came to mind.
Alex Gordon might be one (Gordon is currently tearing it up in the minors again)…
Delmon Young might be another…
Delmon Young didn’t go to college
and I don’t think he ever showed good plate discipline at any level
He has been expanding the zone a little, but he’s also struggled with fastballs. He hit them well last season (6.6 runs above average), but right now he’s at -3.4. Still, like you said, there’s no reason to panic right now.
I own Wieters and have just been offered Mauer/Peavy for Joey Votto.
I *can* carry two catchers, but that 2nd catcher would have to produce more than Orlando Hudson (the guy I’d drop to make room for Mauer).
Ike Davis is available, and if I compare him to Wieters I wonder if Mauer/Davis is better than Votto/Wieters from here on out.
Trade Wieters for Smoak?
Wait, for some reason I thought this was maybe a keeper league you were talking about.
Wieters will be fine. Just like I have been.
I still think his numbers comp well with Mauer up until this season. Wieters had a hot second half, let’s hope it isn’t because he was facing worse pitching but because he was making necessary adjustments. I also think there just isn’t a batter in the O’s lineup that forces pitchers to throw strikes ever. Hopefully they sign some protection so that Jones, Kakes, and Wieters can start seeing some pitches worth hitting and not feel forced to chase bad ones.
take a look at the graph at the bottom of this page:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=4298&position=C&page=8&type=full
his wOBA right now isn’t too much worse than it was before his hot streak at the end of last year, and that was after more at-bats as well. it’s way too early to be giving up on him, or Matusz/Jones for that matter. Matusz has a career xFIP of 4.56 – solidly league average… it’s hard for any player to play well when a team is playing as badly as they are, which is why I’m doubly impressed by how consistent Markakis / Roberts have been over the past few years.
Question…
There are talks that he’s got a long swing, and this is mostly directed at the fangraphs guys or David directly…
If he’s got issues with his long swing, what’s the explanation for such a drop in his runs above average vs the fastball. It’s a pretty start drop. Over 9 in terms of absolute value, but almost improvement in every other category. Is there too much focus from him on breaking pitches now?
Just wondering if we could extend this out a bit farther to the kinds of pitches. Thanks!
Sadly, I have watched every O’s game this year and while the pitch selection most definitely has something to do with Matt’s struggles, it his approach at the plate seems to be even more worrisome. Last year when Wieters came up he swung the bat with authority. Driving through the point of contact he was able to find gaps in the outfield. Watching him at the plate over the past month though, Matt seems very tentative, settling for simply putting the bat on the ball, nothing more. He has rarely hit a ball sharply this year, most of his hits have come from lofting the ball over the heads of the infielders.
That’s what’s been bothering me too Steve. In the games I’ve watched this year, he looks like a 230 lb slap hitter. Frequently falling behind in the count, he does seem to just to get wood on the ball.
I’ve got Wieters and Santana in a keeper league and I’m hoping Wieters gets hot, so I can move him. I’d rather have Rod Barajas or Ramon Hernandez right now, but I’ve invested so much in Wieters at this point that I can’t just drop him.
What starters would you folks target for the false prophet? I don’t think I could get much for him right now.
Trembley said this week before he was fired that Wieters is beginning his swing/trigger to early to try to catch up to fastballs. So when offspeed pitches come at him he’s already too far ahead and off balance to adjust, which is maybe leading to his poor Swing %s.
Matt Wieters isn’t fit to carry my jock
Wieters will have a medioce career for a sub mediocre team. The o’s have no hope.
The million dollar question for me I guess is: in a non-keeper 10 team league, with Wieters riding the bench and Buster in my catcher slot since the call up, do I drop Wieters for Santana?
In a heartbeat Luke. With Santana up, I’ve benched Wieters. I don’t like carrying two catchers, unless he’s C eligible and plays another position like Posey or Panda last year.
Interesting interview on the ESPN Fantasy Focus podcast with Buster Olney where he mentioned that people within the O’s organization feel that the inevitable losing is starting to negatively effect the younger players, and the managers are doing a really poor job of holding the team together. That makes sense because if any one of Matusz, Jones, Markakis, Wieters, or Tillman was underperforming you might call it a regression but it seems pretty odd that they are all doing so poorly relative to their projected value.
The losing is a good point, but the losing just stems from having to play 4 teams in the AL east with money well spent on pitching. I don’t care where you rake or in what minor league, this year’s AL east will spit you out if you aren’t a polished hitter. Wieters was pretty good last season, but it seems like all the pitching he’s facing has gotten better with the exception of Halladay. If scouts expected a .280 power hitter, that might correct to a .260 hitter with marginal power vs elite pitching.