WAR Update: Catcher Framing!
Update: An earlier bug that impacted updated pitcher WAR has now been resolved. The pitcher tables below have been updated to reflect that. Thanks to everyone who pointed out the issue!
I’m very pleased to announce that FanGraphs has finally added catcher framing data to the site, with full thanks to Jared Cross, who you may know as the co-creator of the Steamer projections. We’ve also incorporated catcher framing into WAR.
Including catcher framing in WAR has been a topic of internal debate at FanGraphs for the past half-decade. The problem has never been with the inclusion of framing numbers on the catcher side of things. That’s a fairly simple addition. The problem has always been what to do with the pitchers. For instance, the 2011 Brewers were some 40 runs above average in catcher framing. When you add those 40 runs to catchers, do you subtract 40 runs from pitchers? As it turns out, you do, but those runs are not attributed equally to each pitcher:
| Player | IP | Catcher Framing | Framing per 9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Wolf | 212.1 | -0.45 | -0.02 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 207.1 | 7.79 | 0.34 |
| Shaun Marcum | 200.2 | 7.47 | 0.34 |
| Zack Greinke | 171.2 | 5.95 | 0.31 |
| Chris Narveson | 161.2 | 5.12 | 0.29 |
While most of the pitchers on the 2011 Brewers benefited from Jonathan Lucroy’s otherworldly framing, Randy Wolf was stuck with George Kottaras most of the time. In this instance, the entire Brewers pitching staff, with the exception of Randy Wolf, was a little bit worse once catcher framing is taken into account than their previous, non-catcher framing inclusive WAR would indicate.
Exactly how do you add catcher framing to WAR you ask?
For catchers, you take the catcher framing runs above average, divide by the runs to wins converter, and add it to your existing WAR total.
WAR = (Batting + Base Running + Fielding + Catcher Framing + Replacement Level) / Runs to Wins
On the pitcher side, we adjust FIP by the catcher framing runs above average per 9 innings. If Zack Greinke’s 2011 FIP was 3.00, and he was helped to the extent of 0.31 framing runs per 9 innings, we now use 3.31 in the WAR calculation instead of the original 3.00 FIP. We also adjust the pitcher’s dynamic runs to wins converter. In Greinke’s case, this would increase his personal run environment and also increase the runs to wins converter.
WAR = (((League FIP – (FIP + Catcher Framing / 9)) / Dynamic Runs to Wins Converter + Replacement Level) * IP / 9) * Game Start Leverage / 2
The RA9-WAR calculation has been adjusted in the exact same way.
Let’s take a look at how the inclusion of catcher framing has changed things:
| Player | Catcher Framing | Old WAR | New WAR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian McCann | 181.9 | 30.4 | 49.2 | 18.8 |
| Russell Martin | 165.6 | 29.5 | 46.7 | 17.2 |
| Yadier Molina | 151.6 | 34.8 | 50.5 | 15.7 |
| Jose Molina | 140.4 | 0.6 | 15.2 | 14.6 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 126.8 | 22.6 | 36.2 | 13.6 |
| Miguel Montero | 127.0 | 15.6 | 28.9 | 13.3 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 119.6 | 15.1 | 27.6 | 12.5 |
| Buster Posey | 118.0 | 38.7 | 51.1 | 12.4 |
| Tyler Flowers | 89.4 | 8.6 | 17.8 | 9.2 |
| David Ross | 80.7 | 10.0 | 18.3 | 8.4 |
| Ryan Hanigan | 79.2 | 8.8 | 17.1 | 8.3 |
| Martin Maldonado | 69.2 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 7.2 |
| Jeff Mathis | 69.1 | -1.1 | 6.0 | 7.1 |
| Chris Stewart | 66.2 | 2.9 | 10.0 | 7.1 |
| Mike Zunino | 49.5 | 7.7 | 13.0 | 5.3 |
| Hank Conger | 48.1 | 1.7 | 6.9 | 5.2 |
| Rene Rivera | 48.1 | 3.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 |
| Player | Catcher Framing | Old WAR | New WAR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Doumit | -156.6 | 5.7 | -10.4 | -16.1 |
| Gerald Laird | -109.1 | 4.0 | -7.2 | -11.2 |
| Nick Hundley | -90.7 | 11.3 | 1.9 | -9.4 |
| Chris Iannetta | -89.5 | 17.7 | 8.3 | -9.3 |
| Kurt Suzuki | -86.1 | 18.1 | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| Carlos Santana | -78.6 | 14.7 | 6.4 | -8.3 |
| Salvador Perez | -79.9 | 17.8 | 9.5 | -8.3 |
| A.J. Ellis | -77.1 | 8.2 | 0.1 | -8.1 |
| Carlos Ruiz | -68.9 | 21.2 | 14.0 | -7.3 |
| Dioner Navarro | -65.4 | 5.6 | -1.2 | -6.8 |
| Lou Marson | -57.6 | 2.5 | -3.5 | -6.0 |
| Welington Castillo | -52.1 | 13.2 | 7.6 | -5.6 |
| John Buck | -52.4 | 7.2 | 1.7 | -5.6 |
| John Jaso | -51.9 | 8.0 | 2.5 | -5.5 |
| Rob Johnson | -48.4 | -1.5 | -6.5 | -5.0 |
| Robinson Chirinos | -47.7 | 8.3 | 3.4 | -5.0 |
| Player | Season | Catcher Framing | Old WAR | New WAR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lucroy | 2011 | 42.4 | 1.4 | 5.9 | 4.5 |
| Brian McCann | 2008 | 37.5 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 3.7 |
| Brian McCann | 2011 | 34.1 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 3.6 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 2013 | 31.8 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 3.4 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 2010 | 32.4 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| Jose Molina | 2008 | 32.1 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| Tyler Flowers | 2017 | 31.9 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 3.2 |
| Brian McCann | 2009 | 31.6 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 3.2 |
| Jose Molina | 2012 | 27.1 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Buster Posey | 2012 | 27.0 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 2.8 |
| Yadier Molina | 2010 | 27.2 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 |
| Russell Martin | 2011 | 26.6 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| Russell Martin | 2008 | 28.1 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 2.8 |
| Brian McCann | 2012 | 26.4 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 2.8 |
| Buster Posey | 2016 | 26.7 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 2012 | 26.1 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 |
| Y Grandal | 2016 | 25.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 |
| Miguel Montero | 2014 | 23.8 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| Hank Conger | 2014 | 22.9 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Mike Zunino | 2014 | 22.8 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 2.5 |
| Player | Season | Catcher Framing | Old WAR | New WAR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Doumit | 2008 | -57.8 | 2.9 | -2.8 | -5.8 |
| J Saltalamacchia | 2014 | -31.8 | 1.5 | -2.0 | -3.5 |
| Gerald Laird | 2009 | -32.3 | 1.6 | -1.6 | -3.2 |
| Carlos Santana | 2011 | -30.3 | 3.4 | 0.2 | -3.2 |
| Carlos Santana | 2012 | -27.6 | 3.0 | 0.1 | -2.9 |
| Chris Iannetta | 2008 | -26.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | -2.7 |
| Jorge Posada | 2010 | -24.2 | 1.5 | -1.0 | -2.5 |
| Kurt Suzuki | 2014 | -22.8 | 1.9 | -0.6 | -2.5 |
| Ryan Doumit | 2009 | -24.6 | 0.6 | -1.9 | -2.5 |
| Chris Iannetta | 2013 | -22.8 | 1.9 | -0.5 | -2.5 |
| Dioner Navarro | 2014 | -22.0 | 2.0 | -0.4 | -2.4 |
| Gerald Laird | 2008 | -23.9 | 1.4 | -1.0 | -2.4 |
| Ryan Doumit | 2012 | -22.2 | 1.0 | -1.4 | -2.3 |
| Dioner Navarro | 2008 | -22.6 | 1.9 | -0.3 | -2.3 |
| Miguel Olivo | 2011 | -21.2 | 0.2 | -2.0 | -2.2 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 2017 | -22.1 | 1.1 | -1.1 | -2.2 |
| Lou Marson | 2011 | -20.4 | 1.0 | -1.2 | -2.2 |
| Lou Marson | 2010 | -20.3 | 0.5 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
| Rob Johnson | 2009 | -20.8 | -0.1 | -2.2 | -2.1 |
| Dioner Navarro | 2016 | -20.2 | -0.2 | -2.3 | -2.1 |
| Wilin Rosario | 2012 | -19.5 | 1.2 | -0.8 | -2.0 |
| John Buck | 2010 | -19.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | -2.0 |
| W Castillo | 2013 | -18.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | -2.0 |
And the Pitchers, where the differences are considerably smaller:
| Player | Framing | Old War | New War | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Hernandez | -23.3 | 42.7 | 45.4 | 2.7 |
| Justin Masterson | -20.7 | 14.2 | 16.4 | 2.2 |
| Jason Vargas | -21.0 | 12.9 | 15.0 | 2.1 |
| Justin Verlander | -17.6 | 57.0 | 59.0 | 2.0 |
| Ricky Nolasco | -12.4 | 23.6 | 25.0 | 1.4 |
| Mike Pelfrey | -13.6 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 1.4 |
| Kevin Correia | -12.3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 1.2 |
| Cole Hamels | -11.1 | 41.4 | 42.6 | 1.2 |
| Anibal Sanchez | -11.7 | 25.7 | 27.0 | 1.2 |
| Zach Duke | -12.4 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 1.2 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | -10.8 | 26.6 | 27.8 | 1.1 |
| Ian Snell | -11.9 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| Derek Holland | -10.5 | 13.2 | 14.3 | 1.1 |
| Danny Duffy | -10.2 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 1.1 |
| Luke Hochevar | -10.1 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 1.0 |
| Paul Maholm | -10.2 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 1.0 |
| Edwin Jackson | -10.1 | 16.1 | 17.2 | 1.0 |
| Jeff Karstens | -9.6 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| Roberto Hernandez | -9.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 1.0 |
| Player | Framing | Old War | New War | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yovani Gallardo | 25.6 | 21.3 | 18.4 | -2.9 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 28.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 23.4 | 30.7 | 28.0 | -2.7 |
| Tim Hudson | 24.5 | 14.5 | 12.0 | -2.6 |
| Kyle Lohse | 21.7 | 14.9 | 12.6 | -2.3 |
| Adam Wainwright | 18.6 | 35.3 | 33.2 | -2.1 |
| Jair Jurrjens | 19.2 | 9.7 | 7.7 | -2.0 |
| Derek Lowe | 19.0 | 12.4 | 10.5 | -2.0 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 18.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | -1.9 |
| Tommy Hanson | 17.2 | 9.5 | 7.6 | -1.8 |
| Johnny Cueto | 16.9 | 29.5 | 27.7 | -1.8 |
| Marco Estrada | 16.6 | 13.3 | 11.6 | -1.7 |
| Matt Cain | 15.7 | 21.1 | 19.4 | -1.7 |
| Ian Kennedy | 14.7 | 16.3 | 14.6 | -1.6 |
| CC Sabathia | 14.7 | 40.3 | 38.7 | -1.6 |
| Zack Greinke | 13.8 | 50.7 | 49.1 | -1.6 |
Now you know everything there is to know about how we added catcher framing to WAR. Please note the following:
- Catcher Framing (abbreviated as FRM) is available on the leaderboards and player pages in the fielding sections.
- WAR has been updated with catcher framing data everywhere WAR is available on the site.
- Catcher Framing data is available in batter and pitcher sections of the leaderboard as a custom stat.
- Fielding (the WAR component) now includes Catcher Framing runs above average.
- Steamer projections and depth chart projections both include projected catcher framing for catchers and pitchers.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
A lot of these differences are stark, though we can understand a little better why Jeff Mathis is always a hot commodity. Also, I found it a little amusing that Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey were in the “biggest losers” table, and one of their catchers in 2013 with the Twins was none other than Ryan Doumit (he only caught 43 games, but still, it’s a fun coincidence).
There’s something more than coincidence here. Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, and Zach Duke are also among the biggest losers, and they were the pitchers with the most innings for the Pirates in 2008, when Doumit had a -55 Def score. Jeff Karstens was also a Doumit-era Pirate pitcher. Correia was also a teammate of Doumit in 2011.
This seems weird–if Doumit is getting a huge downward WAR adjustment, and the pitchers are also getting a downward WAR adjustment, where is that WAR going?
The law of conservation of mass and WAR is at stake here.
The randomness is what is bothering me with this. How are Lucroy and McCann going from greatest single season framer to below average in just a couple seasons?
Just on speculation – I would say that Umpires do not like to be manipulated. I read something on Fangraphs I believe about how umpires have begun to squeeze catchers with great framing reputations. That doesn’t change the value they earned the years before, just means there might be a sweet spot of framing value before the umpire community pushes back.
To be fair, other metrics have identified the same thing with Lucroy. And catching is so hard on the body; it makes sense that if something about your body changes, the subtlety of framing may be lost.
The article a couple of years ago examining how low Lucroy was squatting before and after his framing metrics changed was really good and made sense. Those extra couple of inches made a significant difference.
Another guess: maybe framing isn’t as much of a repeatable skill as we’d like to think. In other words, the same way that one pitcher will lead the league in BABIP one year and be below average the next.
It’s also possible that catcher may be especially good at framing certain pitches (say, fastballs) but not others (say sliders). Or sliders in the zone are ok but they struggle with sliders low and away to lefties. As pitch mix changes year to year, framing value probably does also.
It also could be a repeatable skill, but physically demanding and subject to decline the same way bat speed is. In that way it would not be random, but not constant either.
It is similar with defense stats.
There is a lot of randomness along with actual skill.
If you looked at wrc+ on a monthly basis, you’d observe “best hitters” turning into pumpkins.
The problem is teasing the skill part out.
However, there is additional concern here because the volatility of defensive stats can be explained by “sample size”. Yet, framing opportunities seem like it should be a much larger size so it is not satisfactory.
Another point that has been brought up is as framing became the stat du jour, teams/catchers started actively working on it and were able to pick it up pretty quickly so the average increased. (There was a fangraphs article about this phenomenon)
Individually, these don’t seem sufficient but all of them combined might be able to explain it. Having said that, I will still look at framing with several pinches of salt.
Jeff wrote a piece on this a while back. As more and more teams become hip to framing, the framing skill of the average catcher rises. Lucroy and McCann could have still been the same talent-wise, but the rest of the league caught up.
formerly matt w, maybe I’m confused, but aren’t the pitchers you mention getting *upward* adjustments, not downward? I’m seeing them in the “Largest Pitcher WAR Increases” table, where their history as Doumit’s teammates makes perfect sense.
You are correct. formerly matt w is the one who is confused.