We Need to Talk About Rafael Devers
Last night, Rafael Devers played his eighth game in the Major Leagues since being called up to fix Boston’s third base problem. In that eighth game, he recorded his 13th hit. It looked like this.
As home runs go, that wasn’t exactly a majestic blast. Statcast measured it at 98 mph coming off the bat and at a 42 degree launch angle; similar balls are caught for outs 93 percent of the time, which is why the broadcasters called it a “fly ball into left”, then sounded significantly surprised when it landed on top of the Green Monster. This was a Fenway special, and in most other ballparks, Devers would have simply flown out to the warning track.
It wasn’t the first time Fenway gave Devers a home run either. His first home run in Boston required a review to confirm it bounced off the top of the left field wall, and he was only sent home from second base once slow-motion replay confirmed that the ball had cleared by the thinnest of margins. That ball, hit at 99 mph/24 degrees, had a much higher (59%) chance of going for a hit, but only a 20% chance of leaving the yard. In most parks, his first Fenway home run would have been a double, while his second homer in front of the local fans would have been an out.
So, yeah, Devers has had some good fortune at the plate so far. That’s pretty much always true of a guy hitting .406/.486/.750, which is Devers’ remarkable through his first 37 plate plate appearances. You don’t need to read a post on FanGraphs to know that he can’t keep this up. No one could keep this up.
But while everything relating to Devers’ big league performance so far is the definition of small sample size, the fact that he’s already hit a couple of balls over the monster perhaps shouldn’t be that surprising, because Devers is flashing the batted ball profile of a guy who could take maximum advantage of Fenway’s giant left field wall.
So far, Devers has put 25 balls in play, and he’s pulled exactly five of them. 20 of the 25 balls he’s put in play have gone to center or left field, despite the fact that Devers is a left-handed hitter. In his first week in the big leagues, Devers has basically just pounded the ball up the middle or to left field.
For a lefty in Fenway, this is a very good thing indeed. A couple of years ago, when the team made the decisions to sign Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval to breathe some life into the offense, Tony Blengino wrote about what Fenway can do for a hitter who can take advantage of the park’s dimensions.
Based on overall park factor, Fenway wasn’t much more hitter-friendly than Dodger Stadium last year. Once you zone in on fly balls — and fly balls to LF and LCF more specifically — the Fenway effect is quite stark. Fenway’s 2014 LF and LCF fly ball park factors of 163.0 and 277.1, respectively, were by far the highest in the game. It’s no one-year phenomenon, either, as they also paced the majors in both field sectors in 2013.
As I explained in a recent article that discussed a variety of park factor-related topics, including Michael Cuddyer‘s move to Citi Field, it’s all about the doubles in Fenway. Scores of routine fly balls in almost any other park become doubles when hit in the direction of the Monster. For instance, MLB hitters batted .071 AVG/.142 SLG on fly balls hit between 87.5 mph to 90 mph to LCF in 2014. They batted .444 AVG/.917 SLG on such fly balls at Fenway in 2014. Thirty-six such fly balls and 15 doubles. That is simply staggering. At 12 other MLB parks — including Coors Field — hitters garnered zero hits on those fly balls in 2014.
Sandoval, of course, was never able to take advantage of Boston’s home field like the team had hoped, and his release is what precipitated Devers’ promotion. But for week one, at least, Devers looks like he might have exactly the kind of batted ball profile that the Red Sox were hoping their last third baseman possessed.
What’s particularly interesting about Devers performance thus far is that, despite going up the middle and the other way all the time, he’s hit the ball very hard. His 25 batted balls have an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, which ranks 5th highest — behind only Aaron Judge, Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, and Nelson Cruz — in baseball among hitters with 20+ balls in play.
There’s not much overlap between the exit velocity leaderboards the guys who pull the ball the least often. In general, extremely low pull hitters are just slapping the ball around, trying to single their way on base because they lack the batted ball authority to do much damage pulling it. Guys who hardly ever pull the ball are usually weak hitters. For instance, here is who Devers is hanging out with in terms of Pull%, and I’ve listed their average exit velocity and isolated slugging percentage for reference.
| Name | Team | Pull% | EV | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magneuris Sierra | Cardinals | 16% | 81.8 | 0.000 |
| Kelby Tomlinson | Giants | 19% | 79.1 | 0.054 |
| DJ LeMahieu | Rockies | 20% | 88.7 | 0.088 |
| Austin Romine | Yankees | 21% | 86.4 | 0.080 |
| Marco Hernandez | Red Sox | 21% | 83.7 | 0.052 |
| Tzu-Wei Lin | Red Sox | 21% | 81.1 | 0.080 |
| Rafael Devers | Red Sox | 23% | 92.5 | 0.286 |
| Miguel Rojas | Marlins | 23% | 83.3 | 0.057 |
| Emilio Bonifacio | Braves | 24% | 77.2 | 0.079 |
Devers is the only guy on that list even running an ISO over .100, and not coincidentally, the only guy with an above-average exit velocity. That list is composed of some of the weakest hitters in Major League Baseball, and then Devers. To call his combination of authoritative contact with very low pull rates unusual would be a dramatic understatement.
Now, again, eight games. If you look at enough eight game samples, you’re going to find some super weird things, and almost none of them will last.
But if you were designing a left-handed hitter to play in Fenway Park, you’d draw up a guy who hits the ball hard and has significant opposite field power. So far, Devers has done nothing but hit the ball hard to left and center field. If he can keep even a semblance of this batted ball profile, while still making a lot of hard contact, he could be a monster of a hitter.
He might become a monster of a hitter regardless of his home park. There aren’t many 20 year olds who hit high-level pitching the way Devers has. The bat looks pretty special even without taking park effects into account.
But when you put him in the best park in baseball for fly balls to left field, and then see him regularly pound the ball to left field in his first week in the big leagues, it’s impossible to not get a bit excited. Rafael Devers and Fenway Park might just be a perfect match.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
The scouting book on Devers–and arguably the biggest reason to be high on him–was that he demonstrated opposite-field power almost immediately after signing him. I agree—it’s hard not to get a bit excited.
Interesting to see Tzu-Wei Lin and Marco Hernandez on there too. It’s the whole 3rd base gang! Well, except Pablo.
I’m going to guess the Red Sox analytics team already knew for years the oddity I presented at SS15. 🙂 Troy O’Leary is the poster child for how valuable this one specific skill can be at Fenway.
“a monster of a hitter”
yep, he went there.
I believe it’s pronounced “Mon-staaaaaaaaahh”
Is he as interesting as Mitch Haniger?
I seem to recall another LH Sox hitter from long ago who had that kind of batted ball profile. Wade Something…
Davis?
Wilson?
In the Water?
Bogs do tend have a lot that, no doubt.
Hampton?
296. Just stepped off the scale.
This is a nice piece. One quibble:
“similar balls are caught for outs 93 percent of the time, which is why the broadcasters called it a “fly ball into left”, then sounded significantly surprised when it landed on top of the Green Monster. This was a Fenway special,”
Those are the Red Sox announcers (O’Brien and Eckersley), so they are quite aware of what is usually a HR in Fenway. In other words, their surprise does not point to this being a Fenway special. It points to something else. Wind blowing out? Ball ‘jumping off’ Devers bat in a way that fly balls to LF don’t normally?
I wonder what the out/homer/double percentages for a FB like that are in Fenway. Is that something we can find?
Read the damn article.
What did I miss?
All three of Devers’ HRs carried further than expected by experienced watchers. Since distance is a product of bat speed and bat weight, and our expectations for bat weight are based on a guy’s physical build, my guess is that he’s swinging lumber an ounce or (more likely) two heavier than other guys his size.
Tony Blengino has put out two nice articles on park factor and exit velo/launch angle the last couple days. Definitely worth the read.
I was listening on the radio and Joe Castiglione, who has broadcast Sox games since 1983 and has probably seen more fly balls to LF in Fenway than any man who ever lived, called it a fly ball and was shocked when it left the yard. Fenway has always been kind to left handed hitters who use the whole field. I go back to Billy Goodman and Pete Runnels, exactly that type of hitter, who both led the league in average.
It would be fair to look at how the Monster takes home runs or double away from hitters, too. I’m not sure how much of this actually happens.
See the links I posted in my comment. It’s a huge effect for one very specific type of hitter.
But only for that specific type of hitter. E.g. I’ve found that Fenway was exactly neutral for Ted Williams over his whole career, because the Green Monster just doesn’t help left-handed extreme pull hitters in any meaningful way. (Poor Trot Nixon was actually hurt by Fenway, according to my numbers.)
I wish I had the evidence to back this up but: If memory serves, Greenwell adjusted his stance after injuring his left ankle. Part of that was, he put more weight on his front (right) foot. He couldn’t pull the ball for the same power as before the injury but he seemed to make a conscious effort to drive the outside pitch away. Anecdotally, I’d say he became that specific kind of LHH hitter that benefited greatly from the Green Monster.
Fenway should not have been neutral, at least for HR as it had one if the deepest RF in baseball before they put the bullpens in RF to shorten the distance, and even after it was tougher. Even Ortiz with his opp field ability hit fewer HR at Fenway than on the road
Yes, it definitely suppresses home runs for just about everyone. But it has other characteristics (tiny foul territory, big centerfield) that tend to reduce outs, all else being equal. For someone like Williams the effect was likely a higher BA with fewer HRs, in such proportion that it just about balanced out.
Dever’s minor league spray chart is a thing of beauty
http://i.imgur.com/p7e05MC.png
Holy crap, that is gorgeous
*swoon*
I wonder how much (if at all) Devers’ hit distribution has benefited from coming up in minor league parks that have the same dimensions as Fenway?
I doubt that it has much to do with the parks; it’s about his swing and his approach. I put him above Moncada and every other Red Sox prospect when I saw him in Greenville two years ago precisely because “Devers was extremely impressive in his ability to take what the pitcher gives him, driving outside pitches the other way etc., especially for an 18 year old. He was by far the best prospect I saw in person this past year.“
do you have more of these? for some old timers? WAY COOL!
Oh hey, look at that: I think I did a SaberSeminar presentation on how lefty spray hitters with above-average power derive an unusual benefit from Fenway’s dimensions… 🙂
https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/key/EI8pJmOiLQevlU
Slide 10 shows exactly why.
Devers so far seems to be one of those guys like Fred Lynn, Wade Boggs and Troy O’Leary who naturally exploit the park’s quirks by hitting more than their fair share of balls into the extreme boundary condition known as the Green Monster.
(Also see this if you want to dive deeper on Fenway’s double-enhancing quirks: http://www.hardballtimes.com/new-findings-about-an-old-park/)
He has the highest OPS after 8 games started of any player in MLB history aged 20 or under. (Well, as far back as b-ref has game logs, but I don’t think anyone in the deadball era could come close.)
Z- and O-Contact rates for Devers and the four guys with higher exit velocity:
.818, .417 Judge
.773, .356 Sano
.756, .385 Gallo
.816, .537 Cruz
.895, .696 Devers
So it’s not just that he’s been hitting the ball ridiculously hard for someone who goes the other way as often as he does; he’s also hitting it tremendously often for someone who hits it as hard as he does.
….oh never mind
We also need to talk about Nick Markakis who just got his 2000th hit last night.
I’m not sure we do.
We definitely do. It’s Nick Markakis.
He’s a 110 wrc+ career hitter, so pass; what’s actually interesting is his ability to stay remarkably healthy.
He does have the distinction of having the lowest WAR in the active 2000-hit club, and the second lowest fWAR in the 1500 hit club (thanks, Melky Cabrera – until Yunel Escobar joins us in 2 hits).
What should really strike fear into your heart, though, is if he continues chugging along at 160-170 hits a year for another six years or so, until he’s a spry 39, and we have to talk about Nick Markakis’ hall of fame case.
Chad Huffman would probably be better, but so would Markakis if he had played more of his games in Left Field.
Nick Markakis should be the inaugural member of the Hall of Obscurity–people who played a long time and piled up a ton of counting stats without anyone ever mistaking them for a star.
Other nominations:
Garrett Anderson
Todd Zeile
Marquis Grissom
Doc Cramer had 2705 career hits and 9.4 WAR.
That’s bizarre, but all he ever was hit singles. 2705 career hits with a .375 slugging is impressive. Also he garnered All Star game appearances and MVP votes, both that Markakis don’t have.
Well, Grissom and Joe Carter were seen as stars, and each had a few good years. The Markakais-Anderson-Cramer types who just played for a really long time despite being only sort of okay are the prototype for this hall. Harold Baines is sort of a mix of the two protoypes–had some good years, thought of as a star, and played a looong time.
I think it’s harder for pitchers to get into the Hall of Obscurity because they’re out there all by yourself for half the game, every five games. So guys like Kenny Rogers and Mark Langston and Jeff Reardon become four-time all stars. Bob Welch and Frank Viola win Cy Young awards. Jamie Moyer was famous largely because he did hang on for so long. Bartolo Colon gets his parody accounts on fan websites. And so it goes.
Closest thing I can think of as a pitcher (among players in my lifetime) who could make the Hall of Obscurity is John Lackey.
True fact: John Lackey has a higher career WAR than Kenny Rogers, Bob Welch and Frank Viola.
And yet, no one will remember his name…I’d say poor John Lackey, but he made a zillion dollars so he still comes out ahead.
Grissom only made an all star team twice, so not even close to your statement as usual. cant recall any “star” only making the all star team twice and not in his last 11 years of playing.
Obv he is not going to make the HOF, but he might be the most likely guy (besides Miggy) in the entire major leagues to get 3000 hits, which is crazy.
There is no way in heck Markakis is going to get 6 more years of fulltime atbats to get to 3000. He has been worth 0.1 WAR this year, his days as a regular will end very soon.
I’m sure Szymborski will have an article up on ESPN soon enough about Markakis. Dude is obsessed with that guy.
He’s played a handful of games. Chill out.
He’s been killing it since June of last year, all while being the youngest player at every level he’s played, or close to it. He’s demonstrated in game opposite field power at the professional level since he was 17. He has nearly 2,000 professional PA’s. The hype is justified.
Ironic that someone named “Chill” posted a comment like this.
^ another observant remark
He’s looking good so far, but…small sample size. Let’s see what he does over the rest of the season and then over next season before we make up our minds.
When an article says that exact thing multiple times, you’re just flogging a dead horse to say it again in the comments.
“But if you were designing a left-handed hitter to play in Fenway Park, you’d draw up a guy who hits the ball hard and has significant opposite field power. So far, Devers has done nothing but hit the ball hard to left and center field.”
I wonder if we’re seeing the converse with Eduardo Nunez. Since joining the Red Sox, he’s pulling the ball in 60% of his at bats, well above his 38% career pull-percentage. Perhaps he’s trying to take advantage of the monster as a right-handed hitter. (I wonder, too, whether the Red Sox will end up benching Hanley for Nunez down the stretch, given their respective trends at the plate)
“Minimum 20 plate appearances”?
As if this doesn’t violate everything this website is supposed to represent…the ISO will be cut in half next season.
Launch angle, exit velocity, and other such recently-developed tools help to go “under the hood” of small sample sizes. Also, you can always compare a fresh MLB hitter’s profile to that of his minor league production, and if there are underlying consistencies it helps to further justify the legitimacy of what we are seeing.
So no, this does not “violate everything this website is supposed to represent”, especially when it volunteered sample size limitation notices on its own. If it had said “the ball just seems to jump off his bat differently” and left that as the bulk of its argument, yeah, that would justify your criticism.
Specifically Devers’ minor league statistical profile and scouting reports help buttress the observation that what’s been shown to date at the big league level is no fluke.
One of my favorite Devers stats is his number of professional PA’s at such an early age. This is his age 20 season, he won’t turn 21 until season’s end. By the end of this season Devers will have right around 2,000 professional PA’s! His performance over those 2,000 PA’s has steadily progressed from note worthy to remarkable and given his age to level and sustained offensive excellence, his scouting report ceiling seems within reach.
well done.
left handed hitters at Fenway have to adjust or get swallowed up. I imagine that hitting there is a challenge for any hitter. that Monster is such a tempting sight, but many would be extra base hits to left only go for singles.
The best of them… Ted Williams: I’m guessing had a very wide spray chart.
If Devers indeed attacks to the opposite field in the long run, perhaps we might finally get to see what a pre-injury Adrian Gonzalez would have done in Fenway Park. That would be interesting.