What Do the Cards Do Now?
The Albert Pujols era is officially over in St. Louis.
The future Hall of Famer signed a 10-year deal worth $250-$260 million with the Los Angeles Angels this morning, leaving a bittersweet taste in the mouths of Cardinals fans. Pujols undoubtedly helped lead them to an unlikely World Series championship in 2011, but he’ll take no part of their title defense next season. One of the most beloved players in the storied history of the franchise has moved on to, quite literally, greener pastures.
Losing Pujols is tough both emotionally and in terms of replacing significant production, but it isn’t a death blow to the Cardinals playoff odds. If they spend the freed up $22 million — or a portion of it — wisely, the team can absolutely come back strong next year.
Dave Cameron broke down the deal from the Angels point of view, but how the Cardinals react is equally interesting. In fact, the entire Cardinals offseason is noteworthy, because the pursuit of Pujols clearly affected their ability to make other material moves over the last few weeks.
His deal with the Angels not only impacted the Cardinals in terms of missing out on him, but also the opportunity cost of being unable to pursue, say, Jose Reyes. Given their desired payroll for the 2012 season, Pujols was the premiere free agent on their docket. Reyes could potentially come close to replacing that production while occupying just one roster spot, but the Cardinals were never able to join that sweepstakes given the uncertainty surrounding Pujols.
However, the Cardinals don’t need to replace his production with one roster spot, even if that’s more ideal. Adam Wainwright will be back next season, and can probably be counted on for at least 4 WAR — and potentially much more than that depending on his availability — at just $9 million in salary.
Lance Berkman can shift to first base, where his defensive struggles are further masked. As a poor defensive outfielder last season he matched Pujols’s production of 5 WAR. Assuming a decline in his bat is somewhat offset by an improved fielding mark at an easier position, he should produce similarly. Suddenly, that one year, $12 million extension is looking even smarter than it did at the time.
His shift to first base opens up a permanent spot for Allen Craig, who tallied 2.6 WAR with a .312/.362/.555 line in just 200 plate appearances last season. He can clearly hit, and is more than a lefty-crusher who benefited from selective playing time. We can’t simply extrapolate Craig’s 2011 performance over a full season for 2012, but it isn’t out of line to suggest he could hover around 3.5-4 WAR next year.
A full season of David Freese — as opposed to 97 games and 363 PAs would add 1-1.5 wins above replacement as well, and the same can be said of Matt Holliday if he comes closer to 150 games played. Suddenly, the Cardinals have added value without even signing someone, by virtue of welcoming Wainwright back and moving to Berkman to his more natural position.
But they do have $22 million freed up by not signing Pujols and a couple glaring areas of need on the roster. The most notable position to fill is shortstop.
The Cardinals acquired Rafael Furcal towards the end of the season but he’s a free agent now. Reyes has signed with the Marlins and Jimmy Rollins is expected to sign with the Phillies. The Cardinals might not be able to sign a free agent shortstop capable of serving as more than a warm body — though they could certainly get back in on Rollins if they were so inclined — but the available payroll means they could stand to afford someone already signed in a trade.
Whether that means John Mozeliak calls the Orioles about J.J. Hardy, the Indians about Asdrubal Cabrera — who may have priced himself out of the Tribe’s comfort zone in extension talks — or the rebuilding White Sox about Alexei Ramirez, the Cardinals are able to do more than merely make inquiries.
The Cardinals could also sign Carlos Beltran to fill an all-encompassing outfield role, as well as the pinch-hitting and interleague DH role. He could occasionally spell Jay in center field and split time with Craig in right field. He would cost more than a typical role player but would give the Cardinals arguably the best outfield in baseball.
Losing Pujols certainly hurts, but the Cardinals now have enough wiggle room to move players around and make other acquisitions to bolster their odds of succeeding next year. They have a chance to form a more complete team, without committing 10 years and $220 million to any one player.
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
As long as we’re talking about top shortstops who the Cards could target, how about Hanley?
Trade for a shortstop named Ramirez.
I wish.
Hanley wouldn’t have worked out w/ LaRussa, but he’d have a better shot w/ Matheny. I’d also consider taking a Torii Hunter for pennies from the Angels. He could platoon w/ Jay and fill in for Craig for the first month of the season.
StL has a groundball staff. Hanley wouldn’t work as a SS in StL.
If Brendan Ryan’s personality and absent-mindedness drove people crazy, Hanley’s would drive them to murder.
Okay, I’ll bite. The team now has hundreds of millions of dollars it’s not spending, a gap in the middle of the order and a need at first base. Prince Fielder remains unsigned. Discuss.
Don’t they already have a more-than-capable 1B in Berkman?
it doesn’t change that the team is going to get really old between now and the end of 2013. pujols is a special case for the cards a number of reasons, obviously. committing 6-8 years to fielder (especially if the price is 7/164 or whatever the number wouldn’t seem to be prudent…especially when you can still go for it with beltran and a SS upgrade and not tie up a ton of money when the starters are all early to mid 30s.
The team is going to get younger when Shelby Miller is pitching in 2013 and Kolten Wong is at 2B, or maybe Zack Cox.
Please don’t use a starting parentheses without a closing one. Really threw me off.
Keystone_Heavy++
http://xkcd.com/859/
@ keystone heavy +1
) Closed.
I would argue that the Cardinals roster is younger and more poised for the future than it’s been in about 15 years. They definitely have plenty of young pitching with Waino only 29, Garcia 25, Miller and Martinez on the way, Rzepcinski, Lynn, Boggs, Sanchez, Motte…. all under 30 and effective.
… and as mentioned above, some decent position prospects being groomed as well… Things look bright because all of those young and cheap players means they will have plenty of money and flexibility for years to come.
I don’t see Prince wanting to go to the Cardinals — way too much pressure being ‘the guy who replaced Albert’ — using Berkman, as suggested in the article, makes way more sense — fans will see him as a short-term, fill-in veteran, not the replacement for Albert
Prince won’t get seven years from an NL team, and he’s a DH in-waiting if there ever was one. My bet’s on Seattle or Texas (how freaked are THEY today?) My hope is Toronto (The AL East would be epic next few years).
For STL, I suspect a fast move on Furcal, and an eventual move on a CF (Span, BJ Upton, Marlon Byrd, Rockies CF?)
The teams has already stated they won’t pursue Fielder, even if they don’t sign Pujols.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cards-not-interested-in-fielder-if-pujols-leaves/article_e4358496-a8d2-5a90-83d8-d036bd1b962f.html
no doubt, 2012 and 2013 remain “go for it” years for the cards. fwiw, it says something about their organization that they can win the WS after losing their staff ace for the year, lose the greatest player of the generation, and have a reasonable expectation that they’ll be in the thick of the playoff hunt next year.
That is within the realm of possibility. But it’s probably too good to be true.
I hope I am wrong, but I don’t see Chris Carpenter making it through the year healthy. His arm is being held up by duct tape as it is, and I got the feeling watching him pitch down the stretch and in the postseason last year that we were seeing his swan song. If I am correct, the Cardinals will essentially replace Carpenter with Wainwright, one year after Tommy John surgery. And they still have a huge hole in the lineup without Number 5. Pujols compensated for the woeful production from the likes of John Jay and the Cardinal middle infielders du jour. Suddenly, the Cardinals go from being one of the best hitting teams in the game to league average.
They will struggle to play above .500 baseball next year.
Don’t forget that fresh off Tommy John rehab, you can’t expect Wainwright to come close to pitching a full season, so a stretch run seems unlikely as well. I don’t know if they have said anything about an innings cap for Wainwright, but I’d imagine he’ll be around the same as Strasburg or a bit less.
Isn’t that exactly what everyone predicted when Wainwright went down. However, I do share some of your concerns because, for all the vitriol thrown his way, the Cardinals did have one of the best managers in history last year and now they lose him and # 5. We’ll have to wait and see if Matheny is more than a FO puppet.
Obviously if they don’t spend any of the money it might make for a mediocre year….but one impact bat could make this lineup relevant again, and they will have gobs of money to spend. The starters and bullpen will be better as Garcia is a year older, Waino is back, Lohse has another year away from his arm issues, and Carp might step back a bit due to age/injury and Westbrook will probably be about the same… Again, if they have a need for pitching they can take on a bad contract or good pitcher due to their extra cash, even after paying for a good hitter. It’s a good spot to be in.
Yeah, the timing sure does suck for St Louis. Reyes would have been a nice consolation prize for them.
I’d be shocked if Beltran was willing to be a part timer at this point. He has a non-zero shot at the HOF if he puts up a couple more years comparable to 2011, and I just don’t see him settling for anything short of a full time job right now.
Probably could have gotten Buehrle for slightly less than what the Marlins paid, since I think living in his own house with his family all year would have had some real value to him. The 4 years would have fit in with a “go for it the next couple of years” kind of time frame. Wouldn’t have helped the lineup obviously, but that would have been a really nice rotation with Wainwright coming back too.
Craig is out until April at the earliest, and could be out until May. Beltran would be signed with the intention to be an everyday starter.
Craig recently had surgery on his knee, and will miss up to the first two months of next season. That could make the signing of someone like Beltran even more ideal.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/craig-has-surgery-unlikely-for-opener/article_9371905e-2036-11e1-a036-001a4bcf6878.html
Kneecap injuries are tricky for sure, but two months of the season is pretty pessimistic.
On a related note, the reason David Freese hasn’t played more is because David Freese can’t stay healthy. So just saying that the Cardinals will gain value by playing Freese a whole season is a little misleading. There’s no evidence he CAN play a full season.
If the Phils sign Aramis Ramirez, wouldn’t Polanco fit real well here?
I agree. But just because there is no evidence he can play a full season doesn’t automatically mean that the evidence that he can’t play a full season is sufficient to put that probability at zero.
Given other careers, I would put the chance that Freese plays at least 150 games at 35%.
The Cards have a few star level prospects in the minors (Shelby, Martinez), and a few guys who project as 1-2 WAR players at positions needing addressed that are close to major-league ready (Ryan Jackson, Matt Adams, Kolten Wong).
There is not some small window for the Cards as a few comments suggest. Money, available cheap players who can give decent production, and a few trade chips (Zack Cox, a few lesser guys as well) make the Cards window just as open as any but a few teams.
Wong has played half a season in low A ball. By no stretch is he close to ML ready. The other two you could see in St. Louis this year, but they’re also a big limited.
You have to go by scouting reports moreso than level played. Wong is extremely polished, and is no more than a year away from the bigs. He’ll be pushed to AA, and could even end the year in AAA. Then make his debut at some point next season most likely.
I said they are 1-2 WAR players. That is the definition of limited.
I stand by my comments that their window is just fine, and any thoughts to the contrary are overstated.
“He would cost more than a typical role player but would give the Cardinals arguably the best outfield in baseball.”
Could you explain what you mean by this?
I can think of at least 5 or 6 other outfields I’d rather have then Holliday/Beltran/Craig.
Really?! Who?
Baseball is a stupid game.
The Cardinals are a stupid team.
Albert Pujols is a stupid nonperson.
My stupid world has ended.
Now you know what Mariners fans felt like ten years ago.
If it makes you feel any better, the year we lost A-Rod we set the all-time record for wins. STL is still a very talented team, and has a great shot at defending its title.
Avery,
St. Louis doesn’t have Ichiro Suzuki coming on board. And whoever they pencil in at second base isn’t going to hit like Bret Boone in 2001. St. Louis has done nothing to improve its pitching staff except hope that Adam Wainwright returns to pre-Tommy John surgery form. Seattle’s 2001 team had a number of upgrades in the rotation and the pen. And the Mariners didn’t have a rookie manager.
The Cardinals without Pujols aren’t in the same league as the Mariners of 2001 without A-Rod.
@Greg:
Not only A-Rod in 2000, but Randy Johnson in 1998 and Ken Griffey, Jr. in 1999 also departed from Seattle in the preceding years.
1. Call Boras to see if Beltran’s available (since Craig is hurt)
2. Call Hanley Ramirez’ psychiatrist to see if you can make him play hard again and be your SS.
3. Call Buehrle and try to get him to back out of his deal with the Marlins.
I’m a huge homer, but with that caveat, there are a ton of ways to spread that money around and make this team the envy of the NL. Rollins and/or Oswalt make sense, IMO. Rollins for obvious reasons, Oswalt because has expressed interest in being in St. Louis. He could take Westbrooks spot in the rotation, sliding him into long relief, or making him a salary dump opportunity. Beltran doesn’t make sense for me, but someone like Mike Cameron or, now that there’s money for it, Coco Crisp would be a nice complement to Jay/4th outfielder. Throw in Mike Gonzalez to be LOOGY option 1A, and that’s a pretty spectacular team.
Cuddyer is the perfect fit. He can hit 2-6 with .850-.900 OPS, plays 1B, 2B, 3B, RF, has been relatively injury free, and would command roughly 25 for 3.
Um, I’ll take the under on the .850-.900 OPS since he has only fallen in that range twice in his career. He may be a good fit with his versatility, though, he really mostly fakes it at each of the position. Still, there is value in that.
in what universe do you project Cuddyer to hit for an 850-900 OPS? la la land?
– career OPS = 794
– has only exceeded 850 OPS twice in his career (2006 and 2009)
– 33 years old next season
Read a fantastic piece about how the Cardinals should rebuild http://www.startwedman.com/2011/12/what-do-cardinals-do-now.html. They had some different ideas, but it could work.
Lame
Well said. I can tell that you really thought that one out.
Really lame.
Just say it’s your article and you’re advertising it here.
That was a fantastic article. Very intellectual read. Thanks Wedman.
The biggest indictment of the contract for me is that I’m happier they didn’t sign him to that amount than I would have been if they had.
It wouldn’t make sense for this franchise to sign that deal.
They could also just take part of that money and extend Molina and Wainwright today and have had a productive offseason.
Hold on, a potential OF of Holliday, Beltran and Jon Jay would be the best in the game? Are you high? Off the top of my head, the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Reds, Braves, and Royals are all better than that as-of-now nonexistant grouping.
I believe he is using Craig in the comp with Jay as a 4th OF. And while I think that could be a fantastic OF, I also would agree best in the league is a stretch. Not sure how you can put the Royals or Braves above the cards even without Beltran, however. Maybe if Heyward plays to his potential and Prado stays in LF, the Braves are solid but the Royals with Cain in CF and Franceour in RF wouldn’t stack up at all.
1. Read again.
2. That is a lot of lousy outfields you named. Holliday and two six year free agents would be better than or equivalent to half of those.
Cardinals OF WAR last year: 16.8
Rangers OF WAR last year: 10.3
Reds OF WAR last year: 9.5
Blue Jays OF WAR last year: 8.9
Braves OF WAR last year: 6.7
That Cardinals OF of 2011 included 2012 first baseman Lance Berkman, right? Yeah.
So Gorilla, you’re saying that Berkman to Craig not only costs them 6 WAR, but Beltran doesn’t gain them a win over Jon Jay?
The Cards OF is definitely one of the top OF’s out there even without Beltran.
A couple times late in the second half last year, when they were making their epic charge, the Cards ran out the most potent OF lineup in baseball history – Holliday, Craig, Berkman. Combined OPS was nearly 1.
You might want to rethink your wording there. In baseball history?
The 1894 Phillies say hello.
Sam Thompson, .415/.465/.696/1.161
Ed Delahanty, .404/.475/.584/1.059
Billy Hamilton, .403/.521/.523/1.044
4th OF Tuck Turner, .418/.458/.539/.997
Wow, you’ve been sitting on that ace of spades for a while. *grin*
Hey, the best offensive outfield in history only comes along once, you know.
Long time Cardinals fan and long time reader posting now.
I would see if Beltran would be willing to take a 2/24 deal and help in center and in right spelling off days and giving us a solid bat back in the lineup.
If not him, we can still get by by calling guys up.
We do need a shortstop pretty badly, but no free agents please. Unless you can get someone cheap enough and on a one year deal.
Need a lefty, and that’s really it. The team should be fine. It’s just disappointing to lose him. But we’ll survive.
Disappointing to lose Pujols. Would probably have been more disappointing to sign him for 260-270/10 to lure him away from the Angels.
I really don’t like looking past a 2-3 years in the future because of how much things can, do, and will change.
For 2012 and 2013, StL should be fine … y’know until Epstein revamps the Cubs into the automatic powerhouse they are to become (sarcasm). They survived the eventual takeover of the division by the Reds, and MIL will not be nearly as good without Fielder. Again talking about how good StL may or may not be in 2014 and beyond once Carpenter is retired(?) and Holliday is aged is probably a waste of time, since we don’t know who will be on the roster during those years.
The thing we do know is that they’ll have 25+M/y to spend that they wouldn’t have had if they signed Pujols. He makes more sense for LAA than StL for that money, even with the emotional attachment. We do have a fairly good idea that no team in the Central is likely to become a 175M/y budget team that just trounces everyone else.
I’m not feeling any impending doom with losing Pujols, and I’m not sure I would have said that before 2011, even though I think Pujols will age well in terms of WAR. He’s still going to have good OPS seasons when/if he becomes a full time DH. I mean David Ortiz at 36yo is still a 4 WAR hitter, and Edgar Martinez was a 3 WAR player at 40. Neither are same talent as Pujols. But to have that value and longevity, he likely needs to be in the AL.
StL won 2 WS during seasons where it could be argued that they shouldn’t have made the playoffs. StL should be fine for the foreseeable future, and if past history is a predictor, they’ll continue to be a strong organization.
” They survived the eventual takeover of the division by the Reds, and MIL will not be nearly as good without Fielder. ”
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so the Brewers wont be nearly as good without Prince, but the Cards will be fine without Pujols?
gotcha.
Berkman would be less valuable at 1B than in OF, even if he hits the same. UZR last year in OF was
-8 and that is not low enough to offset the position switch. Highest I would go on projection for Berk would be 4WAR given likely drop in offensive production.
He wouldn’t be less valuable. The positional adjustment is 5 runs worse and he would likely make that up, if not more, in improved defense at the position.
“One of the most beloved players in the storied history of the franchise has moved on to, quite literally, greener pastures.”
It has a nice ring to it, but in no sense has Pujols LITERALLY moved to greener pastures.
You’re right. The whole article is ruined now.
Damn.
Maybe the field in Anaheim is a more vibrant shade of green than its counterpart in St. Louis? If so, then Eric’s statement wouldn’t be wrong.
Yep, exactly what I was going for.
Drink heavily, I guess.
” However, the Cardinals don’t need to replace his production with one roster spot, even if that’s more ideal.”
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far less likely that every one of the guys mentioned in the article becomes healthy, rebounds, or peaks, than that a single player (Pujols) has a dominant season.
the very fact that Wainright did miss all of last season with injury, Freese missed a ton of time, Holliday was injury prone etc should make that pretty clear.
in reality you just cant expect to replace Pujols’ production n a piecemeal fashion that easily.
Of course not. You do the same thing that the A’s did to replace Giambi. One guy can’t do it.
So, you start looking at RUNS.
You probably need to replace 65 runs in 2012.
Let’s not forget the Cards lost quite a few runs in ’11 by having Rasmus in CF for much of the season. Rasmus was +12, Jay and Craig were both 24+ in less PA, much less PA with Craig. So, that’s a gain of ~15 runs over a full season. We’re not talking true talent, only what StL needs to replace/gain in 2012.
Franklin and Miller were terrible in the bullpen: -14 runs.
Replace that with Motte and Scrabble (+14), and there’s a 28-run swing in favor for the Cardinals.
Add Adam Wainwright. I’m not one of those that doubts a 4.5-5 WAR season for him until I’m shown data that shows CYA quality SPs suffer post TJ surgery. There’s 45 or 50 runs StL did not have last year.
Berkman’s drop off is countered by more PT for Jay and Freese (provided can actually stay healthy). IMO. If they don’t, I think -10 runs is worst case, non-injury scenario.
Allen Craig, going by projections, and not hunches, feelings, etc should produce well in RF.
I think Lohse and Carpenter drop a little in 2012. I also think losing (possibly) Jackson is going to hurt, especially is those innings are given to Westbrook, Lynn, McLellan, as a SP.
That’s already maybe 70 runs with estimations.
That doesn’t factor in ANY upgrade at SS, as Theriot was THERRIBLE (<– see what I did there), and an upgrade at 2B is feasible. There are runs to be gained all over the field for StL because they had some serious problem areas during the 1st half of the year. I don;t think many fans really realized how good StL was after the Rasmus-Jackson-Scrabble trade and Dotel acquisitions. Holliday was essentially useless in the playoffs.
If StL experiences a bunch of injuries, then they probably aren't going to be great. But, that can be said about 29 other teams. We should just preface every discussion of every team with that statement.
They also now have 22M/y to upgrade the team. They won the WS without their CYA caliber pitcher. Think about that. I think during the 9-10 WAR Pujols seasons, people could say that he was THE difference between StL and their competitors. Not any more. StL is a much more balanced org, and they do have the capacity to upgrade, reasonably priced too, some of their positions, and don;t have to make any immediate big contract offers to do so.
It also gives them the freedom and flexibility to acquire players during the season if injuries or poor performance manifests itself during a run at the division.
I find the situation of StL being fine without Pujols as weird/surprising as I did watching cardinal baseball in the late 90s and aughts where they had some guys that actually hit the ball over the fence. Almost Twilight Zone stuff.
my point is that you need a ton of different scenarios to play out nearly perfect in order for those 65 runs to happen.
with Pujols on the roster you need only one thing to go right – Pujols to be himself.
which is more likely?
also i think your calculations are pretty optimistic… for example you assume that Wainwright is worth 45-50 runs next year. Not only is it unclear when he will be ready to pitch, but you have no idea how many innings he will be allowed/effective to throw. And the bigger issue is you didnt account for whoever would replace Wainwright in the rotation…
i will be shocked if st Louis wins as many games next year as they did in ’11
Even if you give Wainwright only 30 runs, you’re still in a similar position and that’s without spending any money to upgrade the team.
If you look at the Cardinals team, there are opportunities to improve in several places that aren’t expecting “perfect” circumstances.
The team could actually end up improving over last season if they use the money wisely.
Alexei Ramirez in a trade, and Beltran in RF, could actually leave the team stronger than 24 hours ago.
Ramirez is a great glove, and even more valuable behind a severe groundball rotation. Beltran could play right field until Craig returns, then shift to center—where any defensive shortcomings are lessened by, you guessed it, an extreme groundball rotation.
I’d go as high as 2/28 for Beltran…and give up anyone not named Miller, Taveras, or Martinez, in trade for Alexei; the ChiSox shortstop has been incredibly durable, and he’s cheap.
Now why the White Sox would trade him at all is another question. Any Sox fans out there…what would you need in exchange?
Cardinals fans all riding the….
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Cardinals dodged a bullet. A Pujols contract would’ve been a ball and chain within a few years, similiar to what Texas had with A-Rod. The Angels can afford a tinancial black hole more than St. Louis, but if they don’t win a World Series in the next two years, this will be up there with the Vernon Wells deal. We’re talking a 1/4 billion to a guy about to turn 32. Nuts.
Watch the Cards win the Series next season. happened to the Giants when Bonds left, so it is not unprecedented.
when Bonds left the Giants got Lincecum and Cain in their prime, a rediculous season from Sanchez, Buster Posey and Bumgarner, a miracle half season from Burrell, a career year from Huff, a career year from Uribe, and a career year from Torres. Not to mention one of the very best bullpens in all of baseball.
Seriously, 7 WAR from Andres Torres.
That nearly replaced Bonds production alone.
What do the Cardinals have coming in?
Wainright and a new shortstop?
and Craig and Jay? no way those 2 come anywhere near the 10 WAR that Torres/Burrell combined for.
and unless somehow the Cards wrangle away Hanley, and he reverts to 2008 form, theres also no way the 1B/SS combo of Berkman and XX come close to the 9 WAR that Huff.Uribe put up.
Sorry, but I think it more likely the Cards go off a cliff next year than anything else.
The most productive players on that team are getting old. Does everybody really think the Berkman renaissance will continue like it has for another year? He’ll be 36. Carpenter: 37. Holliday: 32. Lohse: 33. Westbrook: 35. Even Wainwright will be 31 and coming off TJ. Let’s not forget either that even without Pujols gobbling up all the available cash, the Cards still have 80MM committed to 8 players and a cap of 110MM, not to mention the little inconvenient truth that the FA crop is not exactly bursting with quality after Fielder.
Maybe the Cardinals can pull off a terrific trade or two, but as it stands right now, while the long-term looks brighter without a bad Pujols contract killing the payroll, the short-term is much more precarious than most seem to think, and regardless whether the Cards buck the odds for another season, this core will have to be broken up sooner rather than later if they are going to remain the class of that division.
Lohse, Westbrook, and Berkman contracts end after the 2012 season. Carpenter and Wainwright after 2013. That is not much risk considering the possible (and likely) production from that group.
Do people wonder why certain organizations always seem to be good? The reason is they always find ways to have quality players.
The cardinals have been old and aging for a long time now.
Rolen, Suppan, Edmonds, Reggie Sanders, Larry Walker, Matt Morris, Mark Mulder, etc.
People know that the cardinals are not forced to play the next 5 years with their 2012 roster, right?
Look at the guys StL has brought in to replace other guys …. Edmonds, Holliday, Berkman, and even Ryan Ludwick.
The cardinals have brought in quality players for good deals continually. Do people ever wonder why often it’s the same teams that are always good? I mean, the Braves just aren’t the luckiest team in the NL East.
The cardinals have some aging players. They will replace them with good young players and/or other players they bring in. They always have.
The team is not going to age to a significant degree over one off-season.
Here’s a pretty pessimistic view of the projected 2012 production of the Cards’ main roster:
Molina – 3 WAR
Berkman – 3 WAR
Descalso – 1 WAR
Greene – 1 WAR
Freese – 3 WAR
Holliday – 5 WAR
Jay – 2 WAR
Craig – 2 WAR
Bench is probably below average at this point so subtract (say) 2 WAR for that.
Wainwright – 3 WAR
Carpenter – 4 WAR
Garcia – 3 WAR
Lohse – 2 WAR
Westbrook – 1 WAR
Bullpen’s about average, perhaps a tick above, as currently constructed.
This makes the Cardinals about an 86-win team, in a fairly weak division, who have something like $20-25m left to spend this year.
You could easily see Beltran (who upgrades the OF and bench, probably to the tune of 1-2 wins), Furcal (who is probably better than Greene, and Greene’s demotion makes the bench a bit deeper) and a left-handed reliever (say, Mike Gonzalez), adding the 4 wins it takes to make this a true-talent 90 win ballclub, and that combo likely doesn’t cost any more than $20-25m. The Cardinals should be fine next year, and right in the mix.
That’s a reasonable scenario but I wouldn’t call it “pessimistic”
He’s predicting EVERY SINGLE player on the team to post less WAR than they did in 2011, except Greene and Descalso (who were bench players), and Freese (who played in less than 100 games). Seems pretty pessimistic to me.
I think one thing people underestimate is the vast improvement the Cardinals have made in their bullpen through a combination of promotions and the Colby trade. The Cardinals’ bullpen in the first half last year was truly, truly atrocious. Franklin, Batista, Tallet and Miller combined for -2.5 WAR in 85.2 innings. Later the Cardinals added Arthur Rhodes who did his part by contributing -0.3 WAR in 8.2 innings. Add it all up and these 5 guys (who will be off the team next year) combined for -2.8 WAR in 94.1 innings. These 94.1 innings will, by my estimation, go primarily to a combination of Sanchez, Rzepczynski, Lynn (all of whom pitched limited innings for the Cardinals last year) and whatever additional lefty pitcher they add. Let’s take a slightly pessimistic view of what the Cardinals might get from these innings. The following table is Pitcher – ADDITIONAL innings for the Cardinals in 2012 – Expected WAR in those innings alone
Rzep – 40 – 0.5
Sanchez – 30 – 0.2
Lynn – 30 – 0.0
Additional Lefty – 30 – 0.0
Rzep in his career has been worth 2.6 WAR in 180 innings, so expecting 0.5 WAR out of 40 innings is a touch pessimistic. This will have him totalling about 1 WAR for the Cards next year though which I think is reasonable. Sanchez was worth a very impressive 0.4 WAR in just 30 innings last year. I’m expecting him to post a total of 0.6 WAR in 60 innings. He’s capable of topping this. He’s young and extremely talented. Lynn was worth 0.6 WAR in 35 innings. I think this is above his true talent level, so I’m predicting 0.6 WAR over the whole season of 65 innings. I presume the lefty will be no one special, so we assign him zero WAR. We’ll knock off another 0.3 WAR in projecting Motte to fall back from his breakout 2011 pace. This means the extra innings will add up to 0.4 WAR. So, by this rough estimation, the Cardinals are replacing -2.8 WAR with 0.4 WAR, for a 3.2 WAR net gain. Pujols was worth 5.1 WAR last year. It looks like, just through the bullpen improvements they’ve already made, the Cardinals have accounted for over half of the production they’ll lose from Pujols. If you (I think pessimistically) say that Wainwright will be worth 3 WAR, and Carpenter will fall off by 1 WAR, they’re already about where they would have been last year. Add another 0.5 WAR because Wainwright will be replacing Kyle McClellan, who was horrible as a starter (-0.6 WAR on the year but some of that came as a reliever). Craig could probably be worth 3.5-4.5 WAR in a (almost) full season, but sticking with our theme we’ll say he’s worth no more than 3 WAR (a 0.4 upgrade on his numbers from last season). Say Berkman falls off by 1 WAR then we’re right where last year’s team was. Take off another 0.5 WAR for a fall off from Yadier Molina’s career year but add 1 for a full(er) year from Freese and Holliday. Take off 1 WAR from the combined CF production of Rasmus and Jay. Assume the other guys are more or less the same.
If I’m doing my math right, by this (very rough) estimate the Cardinals are about 0.5 WAR behind where they were last season. If they can get market value for the $20M they would have paid Pujols they could easily be a better team next year. I really don’t think this analysis is relying on everything breaking right. In fact, if we start being optimistic we could say the bullpen is 4 WAR ahead of last years’, Craig improves by 2 WAR, Yadi doesn’t fall off his pace etc. and the team would already be several wins better than last year’s. Even that wouldn’t be requiring IMPROVEMENT so much as holding steady on last years’ stats and avoiding injury.
Why hasn’t anyone mentioned Yoenis Cespedes?
Another way to look at is all of the things that would have to go wrong for StL to be bad.
Wain would have to have a big setback. Carp would have to fall apart. Freese would play half a year, Craig and Jay would have to regress, and on and on.
But if you do the projections the same way we do for every other team, using the past 3 years worth of performance and adjusting for PT, StL will be a contender.
Again, a full season with the improved bullpen, Wainwrifht’s return, more playing time for Jay and Craig, and the team makes up Pujols’s lost runs.
That’s how we do projections, we calculate how each player should perform based on a weighted average of thei recent performance adjusted for playing time.
Anything other than that would be far more uncertain.
If MIL had a CY caliber pitcher returning, an Allen Craig entering the lineup full time, a capable replacement for Fielder and 20M to improve the team, I would feel the same way about thei team.
The view that StL is going to experience a rash of injuries or underperformance across the board would go against the average and be considered an outlier … really bad luck. We make it a point not to assume good or bad luck in projections.