What Do You See?
When you look at the following graph, what is your initial reaction?
Now, take that reaction and add the following information:
1. Catcher
2. Turns 32 years old in two weeks
3. Right handed pull hitter, your team plays in a park that hates right handed pull hitters
Okay, now, let’s go through the formula. If you take Initial Reaction + Position Knowledge + Age + Park Suitability and your conclusion is Contract Extension, congratulations, you’re qualified to work for the Mariners. They just extended Kenji Johjima through the 2011 season. Johjima’s a solid player and has been a real asset since arriving from Japan, but the timing of this move seems odd. Top prospect Jeff Clement is tearing the cover off the ball in Tacoma, and while his defense is underwhelming, the team could really use a left handed bat in the line-up. Extending Johjima ensures that Clement will be moving to first base or designated hitter, reducing his value to the club and taking away the chance to balance the line-up.
The Mariners just continue to fail to learn lessons from their past mistakes. The organization consistently gives overly long contracts to replaceable declining veterans, then gets surprised when those guys don’t perform at their career averages. I’m sure they’ll be stunned in several years when Carlos Silva and Johjima are struggling and eating up a good portion of the payroll along with premium roster spots.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Aren’t the Mariners the team that hired Adrian Beltre for more than Dodgers were willing to pay after Paul de Podesta let him go? And didn’t Beltre’s numbers fall off a cliff in 2005 after his supposedly breakout year in 2004? (Although, in his case, it may have been a matter of his being “too young,” rather than too old.)
Comparisons vary from year to year, but it seems like Jeff Kent (who essentially replaced Beltre in the line-up) has posted better numbers and WPAs since 2005; while working for over $2 million a year less. Even though he’s “old,” Kent is often compared to the legendary Pirate Willie Stargell through age 39.
As a Mariner fan, I’m fine with the Beltre’ deal. He’s been an offensive and defensive bit of stability for the team and well worth the money.
I’m especially a huge Kenji fan, but I don’t get this. I’d have no problem with a one year extension, and was actually expecting two years, thinking that would be the one year too many. If Clement wasn’t there, it wouldn’t be such a big deal, but he is, and the Mariners just don’t do a good job of integrating young players into the bigs.
The Beltre signing was a good move. It’s amazing to me how many people still assume that Beltre sucks because he’s not having his ’04 season over and over. Beltre at $13 million per season is a bargain in today’s environment.
Dave, I respectfully disagree with the notion that the Johjima signing was bad. As I explained here, if the Mariners use Clement at catcher and let Johjima walk after this season, then they’re going to need to find a first baseman who will provide as much value as Johjima did for less than his 3-year, $24 million contract. And none of the free agent first basemen out there fit that bill — they’re either not productive enough (Aurilia) or too expensive (Teixeira).
Clement is less of a defensive liability at first base, so his value might actually go up with a position switch, and might even go up further if he’s used only as a DH since he is generally poor defensively.
In addition, Clement will be making the Major League minimum and just a bit over that in the two years after ’09, so the Mariners will have more financial flexibility and less on their shopping list with Johjima at catcher and Clement at 1B/DH.
Lastly, I have two issues with your use of the graph above as part of your argument against Johjima: it ignores his defense (his primary value), and it includes his ’08 offensive output, which is a small sample size.
Bill, why would you think that Johjima’s primary value is defensive? He is generally considered a better hitting catcher than he is a defensive catcher.
That’s not true. He’s average offensively (98 career OPS+) but was three-tenths of a percentage point behind Gerald Laird to lead in CS% (39.8% to 39.5%). He is a great defensive catcher — 17 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) last season as opposed to his -1 Batting Runs Above Average (BRAA).
And none of the free agent first basemen out there fit that bill — they’re either not productive enough (Aurilia) or too expensive (Teixeira).
There are other ways to acquire a first baseman than through free agency.
Clement is less of a defensive liability at first base, so his value might actually go up with a position switch, and might even go up further if he’s used only as a DH since he is generally poor defensively.
Jeff Clement has never played an inning at first base in his life. At this point, judging his defensive abilities there is nothing more than a wild guess. And I have to disagree with the belief that his defense behind the plate is so bad that he’d be more valuable as a DH. The positional difference between those two positions is about 25 runs. Just to break even, you’d have to believe that Clement costs the team 25 or more runs defensively behind the plate. Even Mike Piazza at the end of his career wasn’t -25 behind the plate.
so the Mariners will have more financial flexibility and less on their shopping list with Johjima at catcher and Clement at 1B/DH.
The Mariners just took $8 million out of their 2009 budget. How does that give them more financial flexibility?
it ignores his defense (his primary value), and it includes his ‘08 offensive output, which is a small sample size.
The point of the graph wasn’t to analyze Johjima’s entire value as a player. It was to point that he’s not exactly trending the way you want a guy to be trending when you’re handing him a long term contract heading into his mid-30s.
He is a great defensive catcher — 17 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) last season…
FRAA just isn’t a good statistic for valuing any position, but it’s especially hopeless at catcher.
There are other ways to acquire a first baseman than through free agency.
It’s even more costly through a trade and either way they’re most likely eating some contract. Todd Helton may be available via trade, for instance, and he’s super-expensive.
What first basemen are out there that are both cheaper than an average $8 million per season over three years and more productive than Kenji Johjima?
Jeff Clement has never played an inning at first base in his life.
It’s not a tough position, and it’s not like he can’t work on it.
At this point, judging his defensive abilities there is nothing more than a wild guess.
Not at catcher — he leaves much to be desired. U.S.S. Mariner says he has “bad footwork” and a “slow release.”
Just to break even, you’d have to believe that Clement costs the team 25 or more runs defensively behind the plate.
Factoring in both offense and defense, how much more valuable would Clement be than Johjima?
If anything, they’re about equal — so why not take the better defense at catcher (which is more crucial to the position than offense) and put the defensive liability at 1B/DH? That’s completely logical.
Claiming that he needs to be -25 behind the plate ignores Johjima. Johjima is an above-average catcher defensively and average offensively.
The Mariners just took $8 million out of their 2009 budget. How does that give them more financial flexibility?
They are set at C and 1B/DH for less than $27 million over the next three years. How many teams have above-average players at those positions for less than that?
It was to point that he’s not exactly trending the way you want a guy to be trending when you’re handing him a long term contract heading into his mid-30s.
Johjima’s primary value isn’t offense, though, that’s what I’m trying to point out. It’s essentially cherry-picking.
FRAA just isn’t a good statistic for valuing any position, but it’s especially hopeless at catcher.
Why?
Thanks for taking the time to respond thoroughly to my questions and points.
What first basemen are out there that are both cheaper than an average $8 million per season over three years and more productive than Kenji Johjima?
Well, first off, I’d argue that the team is not required to fill the first base position with an established veteran. The concept of replacement level is an important one in roster construction, and it especially applies to the positions on the right side of the defensive spectrum. It is remarkably easy to find a guy in Triple-A who can handle first base and hit .270/.350/.450. Those types of players are literally just sitting around waiting for a job.
And, even if we were to accept the idea that the team had to get a name guy at first base, Nick Johnson would be a much better fit for the Mariners needs than Johjima. But I just don’t believe that the team is limited to only the players currently manning first base positions for other teams in the major leagues, and thus, the talent pool for comparison here is much larger than you may think.
It’s not a tough position, and it’s not like he can’t work on it.
Then why not support a conversion of Raul Ibanez to first base and the team acquiring a real left fielder? Ibanez’s defense in left is more harmful to the M’s than Clement’s would be behind the plate, and by locking Clement into 1B/DH, the Mariners have just made it more likely that his brutal lack of range continues to hurt them beyond 2008.
Not at catcher — he leaves much to be desired. U.S.S. Mariner says he has “bad footwork†and a “slow release.â€
No one is claiming that he’s good defensively. We’re arguing the relative value of his weaknesses behind the plate. As the guy who wrote those things you’re quoting, I’m saying that they don’t add up to a 25 run negative behind the plate.
If anything, they’re about equal — so why not take the better defense at catcher (which is more crucial to the position than offense) and put the defensive liability at 1B/DH? That’s completely logical.
Because the choice isn’t between Johjima and Clement. The choice is between Johjima and a first baseman, and in that comparison, Johjima loses almost every time.
Claiming that he needs to be -25 behind the plate ignores Johjima. Johjima is an above-average catcher defensively and average offensively.
He was average offensively – it would be something of a minor miracle if his offense didn’t collapse in the next several years. The aging curves for catchers in their mid-30s is brutal. You’re paying Johjima for what he is in 2009-2011, not what he was in 2007.
They are set at C and 1B/DH for less than $27 million over the next three years. How many teams have above-average players at those positions for less than that?
You don’t get to lump them together and assign part of Clement’s value to Kenji. This is akin to saying that if you had drafted both Ken Griffey and Craig Griffey, you’d get 600 hundred homers between them. While technically true, that doesn’t mean that Craig Griffey had any value.
You already have Jeff Clement. The question is whether the team could have found a better first baseman/designated hitter than Johjima. I think the answer is a pretty obvious yes.
Johjima’s primary value isn’t offense, though, that’s what I’m trying to point out. It’s essentially cherry-picking.
I think you missed the point of the graph. It was not player valuation, but instead simply pointing out that Johjima’s offense was trending the wrong way. It’s not cherry picking to point out that a catcher is not likely to continue to hit at 32-35 like he did when he was 30 or 31.
Why?
Baseball Prospectus’ defensive metrics are based on non-play-by-play methods of determining value. They just aren’t accurate enough, and in terms of valuing catchers, they really aren’t accurate at all. It’s best to just pretend that they don’t exist, because FRAA/FRAR provide more misinformation than anything useful.
Keith Woolner, among others, spent a lot of time writing about different ways to quantify defensive value from the catching position while he worked at BP. He never relied on FRAA once, knowing that the statistic just didn’t have any value.
This is akin to saying that if you had drafted both Ken Griffey and Craig Griffey, you’d get 600 hundred homers between them.
60,000 homers? Geez, Dave, talk about wishcasting. I mean, I love Junior as much as the next guy, but averaging 50+ home runs a year for the next millennia is asking a lot of a player that hasn’t played a full season this decade.
Wow. I got completely lost during this whole thread. You crazy stat heads.