What Happens When A Pitcher Goes Right Down The Middle?

The other week when I wrote about pitches that come in well out of the zone and what happens with those pitches, some discussion in the comments focused on the opposite – what happens right down the chute? If a pitcher is wasting 0-2 pitches, surely he’s firing down the center on 3-0, and if pitchers sometimes miss wildly outside, they probably miss to the meat of the plate on occasions, too.

There have already been 2,535 pitches thrown in 3-0 counts this season (2,227 if we exclude intentional walks), according to the awesome new HeatMaps here at Fangraphs, and so our knowledge of what happens when pitchers are far behind has a solid base. And thanks to data since 2012, we know why pitches have a strong incentive to fight back from 3-0, even with one strike – there is, obviously, an appreciable drop in expected on-base percentage in a 3-1 count, and there’s little chance the batter swings 3-0, anyway.

Count	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
After 3-0	19973	7193	0.287	0.740	0.496
After 3-1	35990	20670	0.278	0.580	0.473
3-0	8806	654	0.347	0.949	0.745
*Since 2012

There are several interesting results here that we can dive into – batters do sometimes swing, pitchers often miss 3-0, but, sometimes, the pitcher sneaks that freebie by for a chance at salvaging the at bat from 3-1. (One unrelated side-note that I couldn’t shoehorn anywhere else: baserunners are 6-for-6 stealing bases on 3-0 counts this year, surely because the pitcher can’t be bothered with the baserunner since he’ll get second base on a walk, anyway.)

Here’s a scatter plot of all the pitches thrown in 3-0 counts this season by PITCHf/x location, with the strike zone and the “useful pitch zone” we identified previously drawn in, courtesy data from Baseball Savant:

That’s a lot of mess, so here’s a different breakdown, again via the new Heatmaps here at Fangraphs:

That’s a fairly even spread across zones, and it also shows that 68.5 percent of 3-0 pitches land in the strikezone. Despite this striking but not at all counter-intuitive rate, however, here are the results for 3-0 pitches so far this season:

Pitch Result	%	% (w/o IBB)
Called Strike	53.4%	59.3%
Ball	29.4%	32.6%
Intentional	9.9%	n/a
Swing w Contact	6.2%	6.8%
Swinging Strike	1.1%	1.3%

Surprisingly, there doesn’t appear to be a strong umpire bias here, though the lack of 100 percent strikes on 3-0 pitches in the zone could be made up for by a larger zone in other instances. Instead, here, 67.4 percent of 3-0 pitches are strikes despite 78 percent of non-intentional pitches showing as in the zone in the heatmap above.

So, given how often 3-0 pitches come across the plate, maybe the green light isn’t a bad idea. Of those 206 occasions (8.1 percent of all 3-0 pitches) on which a batter swung 3-0, here are how the results broke down:

Pitch Result	#
Foul	82
Out	58
Swinging Strike	32
Home Run	11
Double	6
RBI Single	6
Single	4
RBI Double	2
RBI Out	3
Error	2
—	—
To 3-1	114
Unproductive	60
Productive	32

It’s a tough trade-off to navigate, as hitters have rarely (16 percent of 3-0 swings) done something productive but when they have, it’s easy value. Again, look at the slash line from above for at bats ending on a 3-0 pitch – a .745 slugging percentage.

As for those home runs, well, each and every one of them came over the plate and was generally high – all of them were at least 2.2 feet off the ground, and all were within 0.7 inches of the center of home plate. As we discussed off the top, there’s plenty interesting about pitches right down the heart, so let’s turn the focus from what happens on 3-0 pitches to all pitches right down the middle.

Already this season, there have been 11,089 pitches thrown directly down the chute (pitches classified as “Zone 5” by Baseball Savant). Have a look:

Oh, cool, a plot that’s just a big blob in the center of the plate. Useful, right? While our heatmaps use slightly different zone dimensions (the data that follows uses Savant pitch data), they, too, show an obscene amount of pitches straight down the middle.

Obviously, with this many pitches already, there’s plenty we can look at. Such as, when do pitchers tend to groove pitches straight down the middle?

Count	#
00	29.0%
01	11.0%
02	3.3%
10	12.0%
11	10.3%
12	6.4%
20	4.4%
21	5.9%
22	7.1%
30	1.8%
31	2.9%
32	5.9%

This is somewhat surprising. There have been 60,292 plate appearances so far this season and 3,715 of them have started off with a first pitch that is either a mistake or a goods-on-the-table challenge pitch. That’s a shade over 6.1 percent of plate appearances. Are pitchers crazy?

Well, not necessarily. A good deal of hitters will still take these offerings for an 0-1 start to the at bat, four lucky souls actually got balls called on these pitches, and a fair number of swings don’t produce negative results. However…

pitch_result	#	%
Called Strike	1923	51.8%
Swinging Strike	183	4.9%
Foul	746	20.1%
Ball	4	0.1%
Out	503	13.5%
Hit/Runs	356	9.6%
—	—
Single	180	50.6%
Double	72	20.2%
Triple	11	3.1%
Home Run	50	14.0%
Other	43	12.1%

50 first-pitch home runs on pitches right down the middle already this season. That’s small in percentage terms – just 1.35 percent of 0-0 pitches thrown down the middle and 3.49 percent of all home runs this season – but it’s an obvious risk. Someone may want to alert Wade Miley, who leads the league by having served up three of these meatballs for home runs (Drew Hutchison, Tanner Roark, Jenrry Mejia and Shelby Miller are the only other players to have done it twice).

Beyond just 0-0 counts, it seems a pitch down the middle is exceptionally risky. Here’s how pitches in Zone 5 compare to all other pitches in any count:

Zone	# Pitches	HRs	HR%	xBH%	Hit%
1	12801	260	2.03%	5.18%	14.03%
All other	219217	1171	0.53%	1.74%	5.36%

Obviously, treading down the middle of the plate is an enormous risk. This isn’t news, but the degree to which it’s risky is striking.

Some pitchers can get away with this, it seems – Max Scherzer, for example, has thrown 85 pitches down the middle this season, second in the majors, and not a single one has been taken for a ride…or even cashed in a run (in fact, only seven have gone for hits, compared to 10 swinging strikes; for context, 7.33 percent of pitches down the plate are swung on and missed, so Scherzer is nearly doubling that rate).

The table below shows the rate of pitches in the middle of the plate and the swinging strike and home run rates for those pitches for the league’s 101 qualified pitchers. Shelby Miller, get it together, man.

Name	Pitches	Middle	Middle%	Mid SwStr	Mid SwStr%	Mid HR	Mid HR%
Jered Weaver	1073	50	4.66%	11	22.00%	1	2.00%
Chris Tillman	1115	59	5.29%	11	18.64%	1	1.69%
R.A. Dickey	1151	80	6.95%	14	17.50%		0.00%
Edwin Jackson	1061	68	6.41%	10	14.71%		0.00%
Drew Hutchison	1050	54	5.14%	7	12.96%	2	3.70%
Marco Estrada	1012	47	4.64%	6	12.77%	2	4.26%
Tyson Ross	1085	48	4.42%	6	12.50%	1	2.08%
Ryan Vogelsong	945	32	3.39%	4	12.50%		0.00%
Alfredo Simon	900	65	7.22%	8	12.31%	2	3.08%
Lance Lynn	1157	58	5.01%	7	12.07%		0.00%
Max Scherzer	1199	85	7.09%	10	11.76%		0.00%
Yordano Ventura	974	69	7.08%	8	11.59%		0.00%
Nathan Eovaldi	1109	70	6.31%	8	11.43%	1	1.43%
Tanner Roark	939	55	5.86%	6	10.91%	4	7.27%
Jordan Zimmermann	955	76	7.96%	8	10.53%	1	1.32%
Michael Wacha	1035	68	6.57%	7	10.29%	2	2.94%
David Price	1186	78	6.58%	8	10.26%		0.00%
Roenis Elias	1070	49	4.58%	5	10.20%		0.00%
Homer Bailey	1099	70	6.37%	7	10.00%	3	4.29%
Jeff Samardzija	1133	72	6.35%	7	9.72%	1	1.39%
Zack Wheeler	1003	62	6.18%	6	9.68%	1	1.61%
Julio Teheran	1077	42	3.90%	4	9.52%	2	4.76%
John Danks	1074	53	4.93%	5	9.43%	1	1.89%
Jon Lester	1210	64	5.29%	6	9.38%	2	3.13%
Wily Peralta	984	54	5.49%	5	9.26%	2	3.70%
Yu Darvish	960	54	5.63%	5	9.26%	1	1.85%
Jason Vargas	1134	44	3.88%	4	9.09%	2	4.55%
Tyler Skaggs	943	66	7.00%	6	9.09%	1	1.52%
Zack Greinke	1091	44	4.03%	4	9.09%		0.00%
Shelby Miller	1018	89	8.74%	8	8.99%	5	5.62%
Justin Verlander	1228	58	4.72%	5	8.62%	1	1.72%
Matt Garza	1064	60	5.64%	5	8.33%	1	1.67%
Tim Hudson	915	48	5.25%	4	8.33%	1	2.08%
Andrew Cashner	882	48	5.44%	4	8.33%	1	2.08%
Madison Bumgarner	1103	50	4.53%	4	8.00%	1	2.00%
Wade Miley	1193	63	5.28%	5	7.94%	4	6.35%
Ricky Nolasco	990	65	6.57%	5	7.69%	3	4.62%
Kyle Lohse	1107	65	5.87%	5	7.69%	2	3.08%
Chris Young	883	52	5.89%	4	7.69%	2	3.85%
Stephen Strasburg	1077	52	4.83%	4	7.69%	1	1.92%
A.J. Burnett	1133	52	4.59%	4	7.69%		0.00%
Alex Wood	894	55	6.15%	4	7.27%		0.00%
Jorge de la Rosa	995	55	5.53%	4	7.27%	1	1.82%
Franklin Morales	962	56	5.82%	4	7.14%	3	5.36%
Kyle Kendrick	991	56	5.65%	4	7.14%	2	3.57%
Francisco Liriano	993	28	2.82%	2	7.14%		0.00%
Jarred Cosart	1048	43	4.10%	3	6.98%	1	2.33%
Tom Koehler	954	59	6.18%	4	6.78%	1	1.69%
Masahiro Tanaka	1059	45	4.25%	3	6.67%		0.00%
Phil Hughes	958	64	6.68%	4	6.25%	1	1.56%
Scott Kazmir	999	65	6.51%	4	6.15%		0.00%
Cliff Lee	1067	65	6.09%	4	6.15%		0.00%
Bartolo Colon	989	82	8.29%	5	6.10%	1	1.22%
Aaron Harang	1121	68	6.07%	4	5.88%		0.00%
Jose Quintana	1143	68	5.95%	4	5.88%		0.00%
Juan Nicasio	952	52	5.46%	3	5.77%	2	3.85%
Mark Buehrle	1096	53	4.84%	3	5.66%		0.00%
Justin Masterson	1100	54	4.91%	3	5.56%	2	3.70%
Jeremy Guthrie	1135	57	5.02%	3	5.26%	1	1.75%
Tommy Milone	843	38	4.51%	2	5.26%	1	2.63%
Chris Archer	1086	58	5.34%	3	5.17%	1	1.72%
Johnny Cueto	1194	39	3.27%	2	5.13%	1	2.56%
Jason Hammel	1006	63	6.26%	3	4.76%	3	4.76%
Ubaldo Jimenez	1043	42	4.03%	2	4.76%	1	2.38%
C.J. Wilson	1277	64	5.01%	3	4.69%	1	1.56%
Brandon McCarthy	1001	65	6.49%	3	4.62%	3	4.62%
John Lackey	1124	66	5.87%	3	4.55%		0.00%
James Shields	1169	69	5.90%	3	4.35%	2	2.90%
Hiroki Kuroda	1059	47	4.44%	2	4.26%	4	8.51%
Travis Wood	1022	72	7.05%	3	4.17%	1	1.39%
Josh Beckett	905	48	5.30%	2	4.17%	1	2.08%
Ian Kennedy	1132	75	6.63%	3	4.00%	2	2.67%
Ervin Santana	859	51	5.94%	2	3.92%	2	3.92%
Charlie Morton	1110	54	4.86%	2	3.70%		0.00%
Yovani Gallardo	1087	55	5.06%	2	3.64%	2	3.64%
Mike Leake	994	56	5.63%	2	3.57%	1	1.79%
Sonny Gray	1110	56	5.05%	2	3.57%		0.00%
Eric Stults	897	30	3.34%	1	3.33%	2	6.67%
Jon Niese	983	63	6.41%	2	3.17%	1	1.59%
Gerrit Cole	1017	72	7.08%	2	2.78%	2	2.78%
Roberto Hernandez	928	39	4.20%	1	2.56%		0.00%
Kyle Gibson	912	39	4.28%	1	2.56%		0.00%
Bronson Arroyo	882	41	4.65%	1	2.44%		0.00%
Dillon Gee	771	44	5.71%	1	2.27%	4	9.09%
Henderson Alvarez	948	46	4.85%	1	2.17%		0.00%
Garrett Richards	1024	47	4.59%	1	2.13%	1	2.13%
Rick Porcello	878	49	5.58%	1	2.04%	1	2.04%
Tim Lincecum	1078	50	4.64%	1	2.00%	2	4.00%
Edinson Volquez	918	55	5.99%	1	1.82%	2	3.64%
Felix Hernandez	1219	55	4.51%	1	1.82%		0.00%
Dan Haren	1027	55	5.36%	1	1.82%		0.00%
Jake Peavy	1023	56	5.47%	1	1.79%	2	3.57%
Adam Wainwright	1132	62	5.48%	1	1.61%	1	1.61%
Bud Norris	1036	63	6.08%	1	1.59%	1	1.59%
Corey Kluber	1097	65	5.93%	1	1.54%		0.00%
Wei-Yin Chen	966	69	7.14%	1	1.45%	2	2.90%
Miguel Gonzalez	884	52	5.88%		0.00%	3	5.77%
Jesse Chavez	968	56	5.79%		0.00%	1	1.79%
Jordan Lyles	1054	54	5.12%		0.00%	1	1.85%
Kevin Correia	875	43	4.91%		0.00%	1	2.33%
Dallas Keuchel	1037	37	3.57%		0.00%	1	2.70%