What the Cincinnati Reds Should Do
Overview
The Reds were a sort of sexy surprise pick entering the 2010 season, but I don’t think too many people around baseball predicted they would be in this good of a position at the break. Cincinnati currently holds a one game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals and at least eight games on the rest of the division. Not only that, but it has all come without Edinson Volquez, who has missed the entire season due to Tommy John but should return sometime soon after the All-Star Game.
That said, there are still some questions about the Reds. They have a solid +45 run differential, but their 49-40 record entering the final day of the first half was over three games better than their 45.9-43.1 3rd order mark. The Cardinals are probably a more talented team right now, but the Reds have talented pieces of their own with a promising future. Right now, however, we focus on the present.
Buy or Sell?
Not only are the Reds locked in a battle for the NL Central, but the Wild Card race also figures to include them if the Cardinals take the NL Central. The Reds are in a position to make the playoffs for the first time since 1995 – a playoff appearance would do wonders for the city and the franchise. Any team in the position of the Reds has to go for it, especially given the fact that the Cardinals are probably a superior team if the Reds stand pat.
Then, the question becomes, what to go after. The two glaring weaknesses of this team are the lack of a shortstop and the lack of a top-flight starting pitcher. Orlando Cabrera has been terrible – a .278 wOBA has him at roughly replacement level so far this season. The Reds have gotten good pitching performances thus far from Jonny Cueto and Mike Leake, but, as a whole, the staff FIP is .33 runs higher than the staff ERA, and the staff xFIP is .48 runs higher than the ERA. At 4.44, the Reds starting rotation has a below-average FIP, meaning that perhaps the easiest way to add wins would be through a high level starting pitcher, even with the imminent return of Volquez.
At SS, one potential target would be Diamondbacks shortstop Stephen Drew, whose name has been mentioned quite a few times this season. The difference in fielding ability is probably negligible at this point, and Drew is a much better hitter, projected for a .338 wOBA for the rest of the season, a big improvement over the projected .314 wOBA of Cabrera and the .295 projected for Paul Janish, which could be a difference of about half a win for Cincinnati down the stretch.
For a player that could have a much larger impact on the Reds, look no further than Drew’s teammate Dan Haren. Haren is under contract until 2012 with an option for 2013, meaning the acquisition wouldn’t be limited to a rising team’s first season in contention. Haren is also simply one of the best pitchers in the league. His 4.8 K/BB ranks in the top 5 in the league and his 4.36 ERA this season is a product of bad luck, in the form of a .346 BABIP with a 70% strand rate. Haren would probably cost Yonder Alonso and one or two other significant pieces, but with Joey Votto looking like a superstar at 1B, Alonso would be blocked. If Haren could be had for that kind of a package – not a certainty – that would be a fantastic move for the Reds, both short term and long term.
On the Farm
The aforementioned Alonso is only one of the big prospects in the Reds farm system. There’s Cuban sensation Aroldis Chapman, of course, who is among the most intriguing prospects all across baseball. INF Todd Frazier isn’t a big time bat but has a good glove and enough of a bat to be a very good prospect, and we can’t forget about Carson Cistulli All-Star Juan Francisco. The Reds, however, have been graduating a significant amount of talent recently, such as Mike Leake, Chris Heisey, Travis Wood, and Matt Maloney. The Reds added catcher Yasmani Grandal in the first round of the 2010 draft.
Budget
Money could be an issue for Cincinnati. They do have about $20 million coming off the books after 2010, but Votto, Volquez, Cueto, and Jay Bruce will all hit arbitration next season. That could be expensive for Cincinnati, and may preclude an addition like Haren who would come with a significant price tag. The Reds haven’t had an opening day payroll over $80 million since 2004. The Reds had $76.1 million in player salaries on opening day this year, and so ownership would likely have to approve any significant buy on the Reds part, which, unfortunately for their fans, might mean that the Reds will have to ride it out with what they have.
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The Reds have a 1 game lead on the Cardinals, not 3
I don’t know what’s more annoying at this point: folks correcting numbers like this because they simply can’t deduce these articles are written a bit in advance; or Fangraphs editors not ending the issue by changing the numbers as needed on the date of publication.
In either case, little “corrections” like this one are getting repetitive, and rarely do much to change the relevancy of the article.
What the Reds should do? LOse 10 out of 14 to start the second half sounds pretty good to me.
What is the possibility of the Reds getting Haren or Drew? Are these trade possibilities that have come up or are these “if they are available, they’d be good acquisitions” type things. I hope the Reds do not get Haren. That’s the last thing the Cardinals need, Haren haunting them even more, within the division.
On the other hand, hey we found a team that DDJ isn’t the answer for. *grin*
Surprised not to see LF mentioned. While Gomes has hit well, his defense has been quite poor — like Cabrera, he’s basically at replacement level. Chris Hesiey is an obvious in house solution, but Dusty doesn’t appear to be inclined to give him playing time at Gomes’ expense.
Gomes’ defense hasn’t been as bad as advertised, but he nees to step up his hitting in order to justify his spot in the lineup.
I guess we have different definitions of ‘bad’. He’s been the 2nd worst defensive LF in baseball per UZR and the 6th worst of any position player.
From a purely scouting perspective, his jumps are horrible and routes “creative”. He catches what he gets to, but he’s struggled with balls over his head, leading to numerous extra base hits that should have been outs — and would have been if Heisey were playing.
As Reds fans, I think we got so accustomed to Dunn, that we have a poorly attuned sense of what average defense looks like — let alone good defense.
From the hitting side, his .340 wOBA is nothing to write home about, but perfectly acceptable for a guy batting 5th or 6th. If only he could do that while DHing… I’d love for us to flip Gomes to an AL team in need of a bat and make a run at David Dejesus.
As someone who watches Gomes with regularity, I’d say the metrics have him right. He’s bad, Hector. Doesn’t go back well and his arm isn’t accurate. There’s a reason, as we’ve pointed here before, that Heisey invariably replaces Gomes late in games. Gomes has cooled off with the bat of late, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Heisey get some starts over there; he’s already seen some recent starts in CF over Stubbs, so I’d say Dusty is increasingly comfortable with Heisey.
I’ve entertained the idea of Haren, and we have the prospects to get it done (Alonso, Mesoraco and Heisey all make sense, with Cozart, Francisco, Frazier and even Travis Wood or Homer Bailey as additional possibilities). As the author says, Jocketty and Castellini may not want to spend money as usual (see 2010 Draft), so this seems like a reach.
I’d like to see them take a run at someone like Nolasco, personally, or, because it’s even more pressing, look to shore up the bullpen with someone like Putz. CoCo ripped our hearts out again the other night, and it’s doubtful that Rhodes has a second half like the first. Masset is somewhat back on track but lacks consistency. Ondrusek, Bray, and even Jordan Smith, have shown promise, but that’s not a group I want to stake the post season on.
Oh, and you can’t talk Reds pitching performances without talking about Bronson Arroyo, Jack. I know he doesn’t strike out enough guys for the FIP lovers in the room, but he’s an effective starter, and probably no worse than a #4 on a first division team.
Would a Alonso/chapman package be enough/too much with a couple mid-tier prospects mixed in for Haren/Drew? Seems like that could be a good deal for both teams.
I don’t think Chapman is going anywhere.
Read the section in Joe’s article titled “budget.”
Trading Alonso and Chapman and other young, cost controlled talent doesn’t help that at all.
The Reds need support from the fans,an ace like Haren or even a forgotten type like Bob Lilly—-also Kerry Wood and bring up a hitter who can play ss like Cozart. This has been a good year excepy for the fans who think all is easy to get back in contention—-maybe add a bench player who has been where they want to go.
Is that Ted Lilly, Dave? He’s experienced, but he’s gotten absolutely shelled lately. And I’m not sure I’d take Wood if he were free, much less pay for him. Cabrera is mediocre (steady defender with a singles bat who’s slower than you think) but I don’t think Janish or Cozart are worlds better, and they’re certainly far less experienced; anyway, wouldn’t Cabrera fill your bench player wish if Cozart is starting?
There’s very little reason to take Cozart over Janish. Janish, by all accounts, worked very hard on his wrist/forearm strength during the offseason and his results thus far (in an admittedly small sample) have been good. In the field, he’s gold glove caliber. Cozart is basically a younger Janish, with a touch less glove and a touch more power.
In either case, I’d support Janish getting much more playing time at Cabrera’s expense in the 2nd half. At minimum, Cabrera needs to be taken out of the #2 hole in the lineup.
I don’t have a problem trading Alonso, but I wouldn’t do it now when it’s incredibly difficult to accurately value him. This time next year he could be fully healthy and raking. I thought he looked very comfortable at 1B in the Futures Game (Rosario’s throw behind Brett Jackson was great but Alonso completed the transaction with aplomb), and I think he’s going to hit. His BP got good reviews re his power potential. If he starts bringing that into games…
I’m wondering how accurate UZR is for a guy like Gomes. We all know that Gomes isn’t great out there but is he really the 6th worst position player defensively in the majors? Really? 6th worst? Or even 3rd worst judging by UZR/150?
I wonder about the integrity of the statistic and how accurate it is at this point in its life. One thing I do believe is that Gomes knows that his defense isn’t great out there, which in turn probably makes him back down to guys like Stubbs/Heisey on balls that either of them could catch. Even popups into shallow LF that Rolen or Cabrera might get to. A high fly ball hit to LC that either LF or CF could catch both look good for UZR purposes, but if Gomes backs off because Stubbs has the range that he does, does that make Gomes a bad fielder? Or the 3rd worst fielder in the game?
Concerns about the accuracy of UZR are fair, but really, do we have any more accurate way to assess defense? Particularly for us non-scouts. Like Democracy, UZR may not be a great system, but it’s the best we’ve got. I don’t think we’re likely to be any more accurate through a “best guess” approach. I imagine we’d see a general bias towards overrating defenders — we’d see positional averages a few runs north of 0 instead of the 0 they should be by definition.
Judging by Stubbs’ negative UZR, I’d say it’s unlikely he’s stealing too many OOZ plays from Gomes. And if you look at just plays in zone, Gomes’ RZR is 3rd worst among LF. I think it’s important we separate the idea of performance vs. talent too. It’s possible for a good defender to have a bad half season.
Even if we cut that figure in half, the point remains that Gomes gives back a good portion of his offensive value through his defense, severely limiting his ceiling. That Heisey could equal his offensive production (more OBP, less power) while playing a significantly better LF suggests the Reds would be wise to make the upside play.
Of course, is there any evidence that anyone in the Cincy front office knows about modern fielding metrics? I’m from southern Ohio. Modern stuff like this takes a couple of decades longer to reach there for some reason. They probably look at his fielding percentage and outfield assists and shrug. Yeah, I’d like to see Heisey play more too (though admittedly last I checked he’d seen poorer pitching than the rest of the Reds, suggesting Baker’s been protecting the youngster these first few months).
this may help:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=8618813&topic_id=8879106&query=%26game_pk%3D264609
that’s just poor.
Mark, if you’re a Reds fan then you know that whether or not the Cincy FO cares about metrics, Dusty certainly understands that Gomes is a liability that he must ameliorate when possible. I think he’s done a decent job all year of getting what he can out of Gomes’ ABs while removing him from the defensive equation when the team is leading late.
As for Gomes, he quite simply gets bad jumps on balls and doesn’t have the wheels to make up for it. FWIW, I felt that he looked much better subbing for Bruce in RF last season. Is that reflected in UZR? It wouldn’t be the first time that a guy couldn’t get comfortable on a corner. Dickerson had a rough time in LF last year, but looked better in CF where he played in the minors. I know Gomes has played both corners, but it seems like he played RF more as a Ray IIRC.
The problem with trying to improve by acquiring a frontline starter like Haren is that the Reds have too many quality young arms. Cueto and Arroyo clearly have rotation spots, and I’d guess the same goes for Volquez and Harang when they come back after the break. That leaves Mike Leake, the nearly pefect Travis Wood, and Matt Maloney fighting for that last spot. With Homer Bailey also around, and Aroldis Chapman in the minors, I have a hard time seeing the reds picking up a starter, especially a long term option like Dan Haren. It’s a strange problem to have, but the Reds seem to be overstocked with midlevel starting pitching, most of which is young and cost controlled for a long time to come.
A top of the rotation starter like Dan Haren is exactly what the team needs. Harang is never going to be that guy again and is likely gone after the season unless he wants to come back at a discount. Arroyo is a nice veteran pitcher, but isnt someone that will carry you through a playoff series and will be gone next year (11 million option wont be picked up and he has already said he wont restructure his contract to stay like Rolen did). Volquez may be that guy in the future, but I dont know if you can plan on him being dominant this year and the rest of the young guys aren’t ready to be a true ace. Plus Dan Haren is more than a half season rental which is a plus and could be moved for prospects in the future if the young guys step up.
The only problem is going to be the budget…Votto stands to get a good pay raise (either through arbitration or an extension) and B. Phillips has a good increase in his salary coming after this year and then you still have arbitration raises for Volquez, Cueto, and Bruce.
The rotation would be crowded this year, but it would allow the Reds to limit Mike Leake’s innings and ease Volquez back into form. Someone would likely have to spend innings in the bullpen (Arroyo or Harang could be traded away to create room for Haren too), but having too many quality starters is a problem I will take every year.
A trade for Haren starts with Yonder Alonso, but who else do you send to ARZ to get him? Juan Francisco, Todd Frazier, Matt Maloney, Travis Wood, or someone farther away from the majors like Yorman Rodriguez?