What the Rays Can (and Can’t) Learn from Local Minor-League Attendance
This is Michael Lortz’ fourth piece as part of his June residency at FanGraphs. Lortz covers the Tampa Bay baseball market for the appropriately named Tampa Bay Baseball Market and has previously published work in the Community pages, as well. You can find him on Twitter, as well. Read the work of all our residents here.
There’s been a lot of circumstantial and empirical evidence showing winning baseball games has an effect on the amount of tickets purchased in subsequent games. In 2008, Michael Davis of the Department of Economics at the University of Missouri-Rolla (now Missouri S&T) concluded that team success leads to greater attendance. However, Davis’s study had a huge flaw. He limited his study to “only the ten major league baseball teams that have played in the same city for over 100 years. This list includes five National League teams: the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals; and five American League teams: the Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees.”
For the sake of determining whether wins matter, that’s way too small of a sample size. Davis might have had enough data points, but his data points were not representative of the wide array of situations with which franchises must contend.
In 2012, Dan Lependorf wrote a post for The Hardball Times concerning the relationship between wins, attendance, and payroll. Whereas Davis went deep in time for a few teams, Lependorf analyzed every team from 2000 to 2011. Lependorf concluded that the relationship between wins and attendance produced an R-squared of .27. There was an even stronger correlation to attendance and wins the previous season (R-squared = .3). Attendance in a season featured an even stronger relationship to attendance level in the previous season (R-squared = .8).
Every sports team in every city will draw at least one fan. In Major League Baseball, we can also guarantee that every team will win at least one game. We can also guarantee a top level of attendance depending on the maximum capacity of the stadium. For the Rays, that would be 40,135 times 81 — or 3,250,935. And, of course, the most wins the Rays can have in the regular season is 162.
Since 1999 (excluding their inaugural season), the Rays have averaged 1.4 million fans and 75 wins per season. They’ve had eight seasons over 75 wins and nine seasons over 1.4 million fans. Since 1999, the correlation between the Rays’ winning percentage and attendance per game produces an R-squared value of .52.
That is almost double the correlation Davis found for teams. So despite the claims that wins don’t matter to attendance in Tampa Bay, they do. To a point.
Since 2008, wins no longer have the same allure for the Rays’ fanbase. While the population of Tampa Bay has increased, per capita income has increased, the number of jobs has increased, and the team’s television ratings have increased, the correlation between winning percentage and attendance has decreased to an R-squared value of .48.
As I’ve written before, the Rays aren’t alone in Tampa Bay. There are several other baseball options. Specifically, there are four minor-league teams playing within 30 miles of Tropicana Field. These four minor-league teams – the Bradenton Marauders, Clearwater Threshers, Dunedin Blue Jays, and Tampa Yankees – have averaged a total attendance of 365,000 fans per year since 2005. They also average 70 wins each in approximately 140 games a year.
Tampa Bay-area minor-league teams vary in their correlation between wins and attendance. Since 2005, the Tampa Yankees and Dunedin Blue Jays have seen very little change in attendance relative to their success on the field.
The Bradenton Marauders — albeit with a smaller data set, as they only began play in 2010 — actually so far see a negative correlation between wins and per-game attendance.
The Clearwater Threshers have a wins-to-attendance correlation very similar to the average Major League team, with one glaring exception. In 2014, the Threshers had a .355 winning percentage, a 49-89 record, and yet challenged the Florida State League attendance record due to a season of highly effective promotions.
In order to explain the Threshers’ 2014 season, we have to consider the marketing philosophy of Minor League Baseball. Wins and losses, and even competition, are not the main attraction of Minor League Baseball, at least in the Florida State League. According to former Lakeland Flying Tigers GM Zach Burek, Minor League Baseball is an entertainment business.
“Our attendance numbers have shown that wins and losses have no relation to fan support. We have not had very good records the past two years, but have drawn more people than we did a few years ago when we had the best record in Minor League Baseball. We are in the entertainment business. We hope people leave the ballpark having had a great experience. If we win, then that is an added bonus.”
A winning team in the minor leagues isn’t the source of entertainment. That might be true at the major-league level, especially where rivalries and playoff games are concerned, but at the minor-league level – especially in Tampa Bay – championships matter only for the team, not the ticket buyers.
In my interview with Rays President Brian Auld earlier this season, he mentioned the Rays’ need to keep promotions fresh. In my post here a few weeks ago, I looked at the decline in attendance for the Rays’ concert series. The Rays’ concert series averaged over 30,000 in 2008, but in 2016 struggled to draw 20,000.
Minor-league teams also shuffle their promotions every year to win the dollars and interest of local fans. The few exceptional mainstays among the Tampa Bay teams are the ever popular “Thirsty Thursdays” used in Dunedin and Bradenton — and Clearwater’s $1 Tuesday, which has been a very effective promotion since 2011.
The Threshers’ $1 Tuesday night has been their most consistent promotion, drawing well over their average attendance every Tuesday. Consider: since 2011, the Threshers’ average Tuesday attendance has been 3,346, while their overall average attendance since 2011 is only 2,660. Meanwhile, the Rays’ $2 Kids Tuesday promotion this season is averaging 13,775 tickets sold per game.
Fireworks nights are also consistent draws for Tampa Bay-area minor-league teams, with ticket sales comfortably exceeding each team’s average attendance every season. The biggest fireworks day, of course, is the Independence Day celebration. Due to travel, however, teams sometimes have fireworks spectaculars on July 3rd or 5th.
Other consistent Tampa Bay minor-league promotions vary in date, but occur for each team annually:
- Education Day – where local school students and school programs are provided a day at the ballpark
- Camp Day – where summer camps are provided a day at the ballpark
For none of these promotions does winning matter. They are all about the experience, whether eating a dollar hot dog or running around with other kids. The on-field action is irrelevant.
While the Rays struggle to find the right mix of promotion, local minor-league teams have much better success, albeit at a smaller level.
Which makes the Rays job of marketing and fanbase-building even more difficult. With Tropicana Field’s poor location and less-than-perfect aesthetic, the Rays are beholden to winning and to win often in order to sell tickets. They have to be competitive, to cultivate rivalries, and to secure close, exciting wins. They have to sell a top-flight baseball product that leads to emotional enjoyment upon exiting.
It’s much harder to send a fan home happy if the team has to win than if the organization has to provide $1 hot dogs, 2-for-1 margaritas, or free tickets for kids.
Individually and on a nightly basis, Minor League Baseball might not matter to Rays attendance. But over the course of the year, the revenue lost to the four local Florida State League teams adds up. Especially when they operate with a different marketing strategy, one that is easier to accomplish.
To be fair, the Rays have lowered their price points to be competitive, but they can’t beat the locality, speed of game, weather, kids’ accommodations, promotion values, and low cost of the regional minor-league offerings.
Winning matters for the Rays, and they have to do so to survive.
Michael Lortz is a consultant in the Tampa Bay area. He wrote about the business of Tampa Bay baseball on his site: TampaBayBaseballMarket.com . He can be reached at @tbbaseballmkt . His first novel, Curveball at the Crossroads, is now available.
So if the Rays aren’t going to win they need to move the team to an unsaturated market?
The Rays could move to Portland, Oregon and have Anarchist Tuesday, every fan 12 and over gets a balaclava and a can of spray paint.
The only problem with that is that almost every male in Portland over 12 years old already has several balaclavas, a large supply of spray paint, and a spiked baseball bat.
I certainly think this is part of it. As a longtime Tampa Bay resident, I’ve been to my share of games in town. Within a 60 minute drive of my home I have a major league franchise, five Florida State League teams, and two relatively competitive college teams. If I was willing to drive two hours I have can add three more minor league teams and a summer college bat league to the mix. How many other markets have two teams, in the same league, within a ten minute drive of year other?
Also, teams like the Thresher’s capitalize on accessibility and bank on a family trying to stretch their entertainment dollar. The Thresher’s kid club is $20 a year and they get into Tuesday games all year. It isn’t hard for a family of four to enjoy a night of baseball for less than $50. Why drive 45 minutes to the Trop and drop way more cash when you can go to the Thresher’s stadium in 10 and have a great, less expensive experience? Its hard to compete with that.
Where I live it’s very hard for a family of one to enjoy a night of baseball for $50.
Regardless of the incentives to attend minor league games or their effect on Rays attendance, isn’t it at all something to consider that compared to every other full season league, and even some short season leagues, the FSL has the lowest average attendance year to year, and sometimes, as in the case of Dunedin, even less total attendance than some short season teams? That seems to me to call into question the viability of professional baseball in the area.
As a native Floridian, I never went to minor league baseball games because of the weather, at least as an adult. The combo of 90 plus degrees and humidity is just awful. On top of that, you have the constant threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Florida is not very hospitable to outdoors summer sports. And I know many others that agree with that statement.
The Rays play indoors. The Marlins new home has a roof.
The evidence is in.
You do realize that I was responding to a comment about minor league attendance? Wonder where they play.
In other words, my comment discredited the notion that minor league baseball attendance in Florida has anything to do with the viability of professional baseball there, as long as it is indoors.
I do understand that and agree it may be a factor. I suppose my skepticism comes from the fact that I attend minor league games regularly and do not find the weather at all an impediment. It often starts around 90 and then dips into the mid 80s with light breezes. So while it may dissuade people from attending, a factor that would not exist in a domed stadium, it seems to me that the threat of rain or muggy weather should not dissuade people from minor league games.
As a counter-point, there are other southern leagues with similar weather conditions, and they still draw a lot better than the FSL. For example, in 2016, average attendance in the FSL was 1353. In other A-Ball leagues it was 2158 for the California League, 3520 the Carolina League, 3863 in the Midwest League and 3283 in the SALLY League.
The short season NY-Penn League had 450,000 more total attendance than the FSL and all the others had higher averages. I don’t think weather explains that, and certainly not for the SALLY or Carolina Leagues. I think it means Floridians are simply not willing to go to ball games.
If I decided today to buy good tickets for a family of four to this Sunday’s Rays game vs Baltimore, I’d be looking at about $200-$350 for the tickets, plus $25 parking – nevermind the high cost of concessions, the bad commute, and bad ballpark. They say the worth of something is whatever someone will pay for so maybe the Rays should consider a more realistic pricing structure.
I’ve been to dozens of Rays games. I’ve never paid more than $10 for parking, and the $10 was a playoff game against the Yankees with C.C. Sabbathia and David Price pitching. Oh, and the tickets were $81 for 10 rows up directly behind the plate.
Anyways, you can find cheap off-site parking that is just as close as the official parking. Also, it is very easy to buy tickets in the $20-$30 range, not $50-$90. I’ll give you concessions. However, you can bring in your own food and drinks for free, no problem, just no alcohol.
Edit: In fact, I just checked tickets for Sunday. There are outfield and upper box tickets available for $30.
Yeah, you are bad at life if you can’t find better prices than that. Nevertheless, your point is still dumb because how is that different from other major league teams?
“Since 2008, wins no longer have the same allure for the Rays’ fanbase.”
Is the difference between a .52 r squared and a .48 r squared really meaningful enough to warrant this statement, especially given 1) how few data points we’re looking at and 2) that all of the data in the 08-16 chart is a part of the 99-16 chart?
I understand the difference you’re trying to establish between the MLB team and the minor league teams. Hell, your conclusion overall is probably still correct that the MLB team needs to be more entertaining compared to minor league alternatives that are more entertainment and price focused. But to say that a new MLB trend is emerging based on a difference of .04 r squared is stretching it a bit for me. The Rays have a big marketing problem relative to other baseball in the area, and they always have.
People going to minor league games are largely a different set than those going to major league games. Almost nobody cares about the actual minor league team’s success, and only some fans even care about some of the individual players’ success (the prospects that might one day help the MLB club). Considering how much money major leaguers are paid (and of course how little minor leaguers are), it would be strange indeed to chart a course where you are trying to gain ground in attendance by doing anything other than winning more games.
If you aren’t going to try to attract fans by winning games, it sorta calls into question why you are paying adults millions of dollars to play a kids’ game. And I think there is a much lower upper limit for how much people are willing to pay for a fun, low-stakes ballpark experience. You are not going to get tens of thousands of people to show up at major league stadiums, pay major league prices for everything from tickets to parking to concessions, without providing a competitive team. Some promotions might work sometimes. Quality bobbleheads or concerts with acts that people normally pay good money to see (without baseball) can work, but you’re never going to be able to do enough to make up for the fact that your team sucks.
Baseball was not invented as or intended to be a “kids game.” Kids play modified versions of baseball, but it is most definitely a game for all ages. I still play at 45.
Left out the FSL Lakeland Tigers, 40 miles away and a short drive along I-4. Not to mention the GCL Northern division has Bradenton, Sarasota, Tampa and Lakeland teams that play 100% free games all thru the summer during the daytime.
Don’t think these are really excuses for the Rays having poor attendance. Lousy stadium that anyone who has been there can attest to. Extremely difficult to get to for anyone living on the “wrong” side of the bay. Just more of the same recycled excuses that have been seeing for 20 years.
How about free luxury bus rides to and from the stadium. Buy 200 luxury buses (about 6 million in cost) that serve beverages with waitresses. Pick up points throughout the city 30-45 minutes from the park near parking. Same bus drops them off after the game.
Say you increase attendance by 5000. Over the 10 year life of the busses thats 4 million fans or about 80 million in additional revenue (assume 20 dollars a ticket) . Of course there are expenses for drivers, fuel, insurance, maintanence and storage. That might be 50 million over 10 years. Of course 4 million fans buy merchandise, drinks and food so that might be an additional 40 -80 million in revenue or more. Not all of its profit of course. They can also rent out the busses in the off season yo offset expenses
Leasing is an option as well as is charging a small fee for the bus tickets
Another idea is skimpily clad cheerleaders who dance between innings and during pitching changes on the dug out roofs. Works for Football.
Luxury buses are $300,000 and up, so 200 would cost at least $60 million, not 6.
Let the Rays move to NY and they can split time at Yankees and Mets stadiums. Markets big enough for them
The theory is sound, but I think the simpler explanation is just that baseball is not particularly popular in Florida. I’ve lived in Florida (Broward) for three years now and I just do not encounter many baseball fans and the fans I do encounter are transplants from the north like me with little interest in attending a Rays/Marlins game unless our team is in town.
That extends to the minors as well. Something you don’t mention is that the Florida State League has the lowest average attendance of any full season MiLB league, it isn’t particularly close either. The next lowest full season league is the California League, which has nearly double the average attendance.
Of the teams you mention, the Bradenton Marauders, Tampa Yankees and Dunedin Blue Jays specifically were 22nd, 24th and 29th of 30 in average attendance across High A. Clearwater led the Florida State League in attendance, but still doesn’t place in the top 10 of High A teams. Of the affiliated teams in Florida from MLB to A Ball, not one is in the top 10 in average attendance for its level. Clearwater is the only team even in the top 15 in average attendance for its level. That is more than a saturation issue or a competitiveness issue, that is an interest level issue.
I mean, Clearwater draws the same average attendance as the Stockton Ports despite 2.5 million more people in the Tampa/St Pete area. Stockton was terrible last year and its parent club not too far away draws fewer fans than the Marlins. The Midwest League averages three times the FSL’s attendance despite far more saturation across its footprint (though admittedly a much larger population base to go with it).
I just don’t think many people care about baseball here and many of those that do are transplants with little interest in watching the Rays or Marlins. The Trop being a glorified bomb shelter that isn’t actually in Tampa really doesn’t help, but they could have the nicest park in the nicest location in Tampa and it wouldn’t get much better.
Completely unrelated note… There is a beautiful, prosperous, large city up in Quebec on the St. Lawrence River. They have a poplulation of more than 3 million in the metro area. They have numerous corporate HQs. Traditional East Coast type downtown city style. A history of supporting baseball until an evil owner akin to a comic book villain deliberately ran them out of town. A dense population within easy commuting distance, and a modern subway system. Basically every single thing a team would want and need is in Montreal, waiting for the Rays.
I don’t think MLB will ever let a team go back there because they would be admitting that they fucked up in the first place.
Having multiple minor league teams nearby isn’t unique to the Rays. For example the Orioles clustered their minor league teams close to Baltimore. And teams like Bowie and Frederick draw better than the minor league teams near Tampa.