Where Do the Braves Go From Here?
Unlike the previous iteration of the “Where Do The _____ Go From Here”, the immediate future of this week’s focus, the Atlanta Braves, remains very much unwritten. The Braves are 5.5 games out of a National League Wild Card spot with one team to leap frog. Should a litany of things break their way, they’ll play at least one game of significant significance.
That said, the Braves finding themselves in that pivotal play-in game would represent a serious reversal of fortune. Right now, and for much of the last month, the Braves look bad. Their offense is abysmal, one of the worst in baseball in the second half of the season, and they just watched their main rival celebrate a division title in their own soil. Their ongoing presence in the playoff race is more a testament of the rather putrid NL Wild Card class, currently featuring a Giants team that opted not to win a single game during the summer months and the Milwaukee Brewers, currently showing the Braves what a real slump looks like.
The problems with the Braves are relatively minor. They won 96 games last year, which we know to be extremely good. They hung in the Wild Card race and at the top of the NL East all season despite losing 40% of their starting rotation before the year even started, and then losing their lottery ticket starter before they even got to scratch it. But the issues the Braves currently face are largely issues they might have addressed in the offseason.
After their surprisingly terrific 2013 season, Braves GM Frank Wren balanced a need to improve a club that perhaps misrepresented its true talent one year against very real budgetary concerns in the next. Other than nabbing Ervin Santana on a one year desperation deal and acquiring Ryan Doumit for mildly inexplicable reasons, they stood pat and are now paying the price.
“Why mess with a 96 win team?” you might wonder. The Braves did indeed post 96 wins in 2013, but the talent they had on hand at the start of 2014 projected to win 82-86 games. Right now, the problem for Atlanta is this team is about as good as it should be. They came into the year with a question marks at a few spots in the lineup and did nothing to address them. The Braves needed underperformers like B.J. Upton to rediscover their old form while the upstarts such as Chris Johnson needed to repeat their production of the previous season. Or they could make a push to improve their team and push themselves into 90 win territory, It didn’t happen.
So now we’re left to take stock of the Atlanta Braves, now and in the future.
The Braves have:
- Black holes – it is hard to believe that the Braves one Chris Johnson slump away from becoming just the ninth team of the expansion era to have three qualified hitters post an OPS+ lower than 80. Those three hitters –Johnson, Andrelton Simmons, and B.J. Upton — aren’t going anywhere soon, as they’re all signed for at least two more seasons beyond this one.
Simmons’ isn’t in the lineup for his offense, and as suggested a few weeks ago, he might be suffering from a small identity crisis at the plate. Upton is playing slightly better in 2014 than he was in 2013, but his far below-average productions sends his contract into “worst free agent deals ever” consideration. - Three extremely good hitters – for all the flailing at the bottom of their order, in Freddie Freeman, Justin Upton, and Evan Gattis, the Braves have three exceptional offensive players at their disposal.
It’s a nice problem to have, though Gattis misses a little too much time for comfort. Freeman and Upton are young enough to form the backbone of a very good team for a long time. Freeman is signed long term and Upton can test free agency after next season. - Enviable run prevention – When Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen went down with elbow problems this year, all looked lost in Atlanta. But their pitching staff has barely missed a beat. They boast two of the best defenders in baseball in Simmons and Jason Heyward, as well as well-regarded players at other positions.
Just look at Aaron Harang and his 2014 renaissance, buoyed by the Braves D as he might be (to be fair to Harang, he’s keeping the ball in the park as much as he benefits from the Braves defense.)
The Braves have a good starter signed for pennies in Julio Teheran, starters with nice track records but health questions in Medlen and Beachy, league-average starters (at worst) in Alex Wood and Mike Minor, and another cohort of young pitchers shuttling through their minor league system. Plus, they’ve demonstrated and ability to wring decent innings out of slightly washed-up starters like Freddy Garcia and Harang, a nice trick to lean on when the unexpected happens.
The Braves need:
- To overpay a bench player – the failings of the Braves offense in 2014 breaks down right along “stars and scrubs” lines. Subbing out one of their sub-par hitters with even a league-average performer could go a long way, to say nothing of giving notorious batting order butcher Fred Gonzalez a few more options.
Simmons is firmly entrenched (quite rightly) so it’s between Johnson and Bossman Junior to decide where the upgrade needs to come, though even a full season of unspectacular play from Tommy La Stella at second base might stop the bleeding from the non-core hitters.
Heading down to the “guy who plays multiple positions and can thrive without playing everyday” store isn’t an option, but a player like the one they thought they acquired in Emilio Bonifacio will go a long way. This year’s Braves squad is pathetically short on depth, a glaring need going forward. - Decide on one of Heyward or Upton and trade the other – money will always be a challenge for the Braves, who cry poor often enough that they might actually believe it themselves. Both Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are destined for free agency at the end of 2015. They are both very young and about to become very expensive. They offer similar production in two very different shapes.
It won’t be an easy decision, should they decide to move one and build around the other. Perhaps the Braves will attempt to keep the current outfield in tact for one more season and then let them both walk, recouping draft picks for complete franchise overhaul. Either way, these are valuable trade chips and the temptation to move them will be strong.
Fixing a team one year removed from 96 wins shouldn’t be a difficult task, but the choices before Wren and the Braves front office are tough indeed. There are many nice pieces in place right now but the Atlanta Braves team that takes the field on Opening Day next season could easily feature a whole host of new names and faces.
Drew used to write about baseball and other things at theScore but now he writes here. Follow him on twitter @DrewGROF
Courtesy of their horrible TV contract, the Braves have nowhere to go.
Actually, they managed to improve their television situation a bit.
Also, Cobb County.
Tomahawk chop that losers. That felt really good.
complain about the giants who are what, 3 games behind the division leader?
I don’t think complain is accurate. They were really bad for most of the summer.
I knew when I read that, that some Giants fan would voice an objection.
They did not disappoint, except in that it took until the 4th comment to register that consternation.
Considering the Giants were 42-21 w/ a 10 game lead on the Dodgers at one point this season I would say it is pretty accurate….
Recall, though, that Drew’s original comment was about the summer months when they struggled. Yes, they are having a good season overall and will be in the playoffs.
Um, you realize the Pirates are in the WC hunt as well, right? They’re a couple of games ahead of the Brewers for the 2nd spot.
Maybe Drew assumes the Pirates will catch the Cards, based on a superior RDif, and forgot about the latter team, the Cardinals.
Great article. Some thoughts in reply:
(1) Alex Wood seems a little better than “league average” though. Health questions, sure, but not talent ones.
(2) Also, this isn’t a farm system completely bereft of talent. Jose Peraza might just be the cure for some of the hitting/on-base woes while sustaining the standard of defense.
(3) As much as I hate the idea of the Cobb County stadium, it might help alleviate the burden of a stingy TV contract.
Peraza has a sub 4% walk rate in the minors — hard to see how that translates to high OBP.
I’m sure, however, that plenty of teams would be happy to take La Stella off your hands.
Not sure that adding Peraza means subtracting LaStella. The walk rate is worrisome but the low K% helps as does the speed and contact ability. Still, your point is well-taken.
Amid the concerns there are reasons to believe improvement is possible and it doesn’t necessarily take squinting to see them.
Agree with RR…
As far as next year is concerned, I think you’re looking at La Stella being the starting guy with Gosselin on the bench. Peraza may come up later to take over as the second utility guy or starting 2B.
If Johnson continues to be terrible against RHP, something that is new to this year, then you’ll see more of Gosselin at third.
In any event, I’m not terribly sad about having Simmons-Johnson-La Stella-Peraza-Gosselin as your infielder options, along with Freeman.
It’s not sexy, with the exception of Simmons/Peraza defense, but it shouldn’t be the worst thing ever unless you’re depending on power production at 3B.
-C
Hmm, would they? He hasn’t been able to sustain a decent batting average or OBP in the majors, and he’s looking like not much more than a bench player at this point.
Ryan Doumit was acquired from the Twins, not signed.
For Sean Gilmartin, who is a 24 year old soft-tossing lefty that can’t strike anyone out, and has started walking batters too. 4.17 FIP in AAA this season.
So the twins won that trade?
Seems like both sides got pieces of virtually no value, but I guess the Braves paid theirs more in salary.
Maybe they can take out a loan with SunTrust? 🙂
Chris Johnson just needs a platoon partner, which everyone knew when the braves acquired him (and why he was originally paired with Juan Francisco), but CJ’s 2013 season made Wren & Co. forget everything we should have known about him.
I would honestly be a proponent of sending Andrelton to the minors rest of year to fully revamp his swing. I have no factual basis for this opinion, but given his incredible hand eye coordination and athleticism, it seems like his swing mechanics (maybe in part due to his terrible balance through his swing) are the major inhibitor of his bat.
BJ should get the 2014 Uggla treatment – month to prove himself in 2015, then cut bait.
I like the Justin / JHey idea of extending the more signable one and trading the other, just almost positive Wren would have locked one up in the early 2014 extension spree if he could have. Maybe you still trade one this offseason (red sox have OF?) and take a draft pick for the other? Definitely the toughest decision Wren has on his plate going forward.
Gattis trade rumors are silly. I have no idea why the Braves wouldn’t just keep him and Bethancourt. Sounds like a great problem to have: two dirt cheap catchers, one with 25+ HR power and shaky D and one with shaky bat and supposed-to-be amazing D.
Chris Johnson actually had a reverse split in each of his MLB seasons before being acquired by Atlanta. There was no explaining it (there’s no explaining CJ, period), and most people figured he’d be a good platoon partner. But up until he was a Brave, he hit same-handed pitching better.
We can’t send Simmons to the minors because the minor leagues are already finished.
lol good point
A good reason to send BJ there.
Agree on BJ. Give it a month or two to right the ship, and then cut him loose. That ship (full of his current and future talent) appears to have long since sailed; it’s a distant speck on the horizon now.
Regarding picking either Heyward or Upton : they could, alternatively, stop crying poverty and pony up for both. Because the production they would lose (in the event they cut one loose) would need to be replaced anyway, and that will cost them money. Maybe not as much money, but then they would likely not get comparable production. Or they can not replace the production at all, stuff their money under a mattress, and have a horrid lineup, which seems quite the strange approach to contention.
“they could, alternatively, stop crying poverty and pony up for both.”
Unless the Braves’ corporate owner increases the team’s budget, it’s not a crying act, it’s reality. Or do you really think the team would be dumb enough to leave available money on the table unspent?
Well, I would say most all teams leave “money on the table unspent”, in the sense that they don’t spend every possible dollar that could conceivably be made available. I don’t think the Braves or their corporate overlords are exactly impoverished. It’s just a question of how much they want to spend, team profitability considerations, luxury tax considerations, etc.
I wonder why no one had mentioned the fact that Andrelton is playing with a hurt ankle?
Sending Simmons to the minors? That is the craziest suggestion I’ve ever seen on this site. He’s been playing hurt half of the year, it has even affected his defense. I have no doubt he will have a better year at the plate next year.
I think Wren has to avoid getting caught in a trap of standing pat this offseason. I’d like to see him go big, one way or the other–either acquire a 3-WAR player to replace Johnson or B.J. and somehow shore up the starting pitching, or blow up the roster (trade Heyward, J. Upton, and Gattis). I can’t really see how a prospect- and cash-poor team like the Braves could accomplish the former, so I would like to see them aggressively shop those three valuable pieces whose future with the team is in doubt.
A word on Gattis–I think trading him is more about translating the potential surplus value he holds for an AL team into prospects than confidence in the Braves’ current catching options, which are terrible. (Bethancourt has been unimpressive with both the glove and the bat.) You have to give value to get value, and the power Gattis provides from the catching position is something teams will pay to acquire.
Wren is at his worst when he tries to go big. He should never be allowed to sign a long-term starter out of free agency. That would cut out about 3/4ths of his mistakes.
The Braves don’t have much in the upper minors, but they have one of the youngest MLB teams and some intriguing prospects in the lower minors. Right now everything is geared toward 2017, by which time some of those A-ball prospects will be rookies joining an experienced core in its prime.
Well, I was thinking he would have to patch the CF or 3B hole through a trade, not a free agent signing. What good third baseman or centerfielder is about to hit the market? Wren has generally done quite well with trades, although I think his incredibly bad run of major signings is more about bad luck than bad process.
What good third baseman … is about to hit the market?
–Panda
Good point. I think he’ll probably be out of the Braves’ price range, but he’d be a great option if they could get him.
I think the Braves learned from the Uggla situation, and they’ll be better prepared to cut bait with BJ. Apparently they’ll be looking to move him this winter, even if they have to eat all or most of the money. There was talk of pairing him with Minor in a deal, under the circumstance that the team acquiring them would pay BJ too.
Also, the good news about Chris Johnson is that while his extension was puzzling, it’s not an immovable deal. Kyle Kubitza has demonstrated fantastic on-base skills with decent power and a good defensive rep at 3rd. He may start the season in AAA, but could be called up quickly if Chris Johnson gets off to a slow start.
Jose Peraza should also be an upgrade over La Stella, contributing with the bat, on the bases, and in the field. I’ll be interested to see if he starts 2015 playing CF in Gwinnett.
My main worry is the rotation. I assume Santana is gone, and I assume they’ll bring Harang back because why not. I’m not sold on Medlen or Beachy contributing again. Teheran, Wood, and Minor are a pretty good start, but the back end of the rotation could be UGLY.
If Wren and Gonzalez are gone after this season, it’ll be interesting to see which direction the team chooses. There will still be a ton of boom/bust potential on the roster.
Yeah but they have a lot of “good gloves.” I’ve decided that Good Glove is code for “terrible hitter.”
Heyward has an elite glove and a good bat.
Simmons fits your aphorism, though.
Heyward is the National League Alex Gordon, pretty much.
Of course all terrible hitters have good gloves. If you have neither you don’t get to play.
Good gloves? They have two good gloves, Simmons and Heyward. They have one OK glove in B.J. Upton. The rest of their defense is more than enough to weigh that down – they have some terrible defenders in Chris Johnson and Justin Upton, and their catchers have had problems catching the ball all year. Simply put, their defense is worse than average at converting balls in play into outs; whether by simple defensive efficiency or park adjusted defensive efficiency, the team ranks 20th of the 30 MLB teams. That’s not good. To achieve that with two elite gloves in Simmons and Heyward is oddly impressive.
Which also makes Aaron Harang’s season even weirder. His WHIP, K/9 and BB/9 are all worse than his career norms. His low ERA (0.65 below career norms) seems largely driven by stranding runners and a HR rate that is about half of his career rate.
Who are the Braves? Do you mean the BARVES?
How to improve the Braves:
1. Fire Frank Wren, Bruce Manno, Greg Walker, Fredi Gonzalez
2. Hire John Coppolella as the GM to rebuild the front office and coaching staff.
3. Get rid of BJ Upton. Either trade him for another bad contract or pair a good player/prospects with him just to get another team to take on a good part of his contract
3. Trade Gattis for a young CF or 3B who is a contact hitter/on base type of player.
4. Trade Chris Johnson primarily for salary relief – or plan on using him off of the bench.
5. Release Kris Medlen for salary relief (or see if he will take an incentive based contract for next season)
6. Sign Jason or Justin long term. Trade the other for young 3B or CF plus prospects to help rebuild the system.
7. Call Up Jose Peraza next year to start at 2B. Use Gosselin as the utility player (to replace Pena). The bench should be improved just with the additions of Gosselin, La Stella, and possibly Chris Johnson. That just leaves the need for a back-up OF (Todd Cunningham) and the backup catcher. Kyle Kubitza should be given a chance to make the opening day roster too. If he can, then maybe trade La Stella for a pitcher.
3. Who are some young CF’s or 3B’s that Atlanta could realistically trade Gattis for that display those skills?
5. I imagine Medlen will be non-tendered and then brought back on a lesser deal.
6. I think they can keep both. Move Heyward to CF, Justin to RF, and go find one of many MLB players who can play LF and handle the bat. Justin would only be due a slight increase from his current salary (let’s call it a wash if Medlen is getting less), and Heyward’s salary can replace what they were spending on Uggla. If they can find a way to move Chris Johnson, they will have plenty of money to extend both of those guys.
They are still paying Uggla his full salary for the rest of his contract, minus the league minimum for any time that he’s under contract with another team.
Yes, but Uggla’s contract expires after 2015, which is presumably when large pay raises for Heyward and/or J. Upton would kick in.
Trade Jurrjens for Adam Jones.
The extensions last offseason show that the Braves are aiming to open their new stadium in 2017 with a core of players who have 1} are young now and will be in their prime then, 2) will be familiar to fans, and 3) have had some major league success. My plan would be as follows. The core is Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, Kimbrel, and possibly Heyward and/or Justin.
1. Fire Wren and Fredi. Wren’s philosophy of lineup construction is flawed, and he is incapable of spending large sums of money properly. He and his hand-picked scouting director have also managed to piss off key scouts and coaches, leading to a brain drain that must be stopped while there are still talented scouts and coaches in the org. Fredi has further butchered Wren’s already flawed lineups.
2. Resign Heyward and/or Justin. The org chart dictates that we might be able to replace one corner OFer reasonably well by 2017, but certainly not two. What we can’t resign, trade for prospects with a 2016/17 horizon. Supplemental round draft picks aren’t likely to provide high ceiling contributors in that time frame.
3. Trade BJ. He’s dead weight now. If you get any useful return, count yourself lucky.
4. Trade Gattis. It’s hard to part with a cost-controlled slugging catcher, but he has already had some back problems, and 2017 will be his age 30 season. He could bring back a good bit from an AL team. I bet the Astros would give Max Stassi and an OF prospect.
5. Groom Peraza to take over 2B or CF in 2016. See what we have in LaStella.
6. Explore the market for Chris Johnson when Kubitza’s ready.
7. Hope that some combination of Kyle Wren, Josh Elander, Victor Reyes, and Braxton Davidson can fill an OF spot or two by 2017.
8. Try to keep Teheran, Wood, and Minor healthy and break in Hursh and Sims by 2017.
Stassi + OF for Gattis…why would the Astros do that? Trading a 23-year-old, reasonably well-regarded catching prospect for a 30-year-old slugger without a position is something a team planning to contend next year might do, but it’d be crazy for a team in their position.
The Braves clearly need to do these steps as I am smarter than them, so they should listen to me:
1) Trade Julio Teheran and Andrelton Simmons to the Brewers for Jean Segura, Johnny Hellweg, Nick Delmonico, Tucker Neuhaus, and Ariel Pena.
2) Trade BJ Upton, Aaron Harang, Christian Bethancourt, and Tommy LaStella to the Cardinals for Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Carlos Martinez, and Oscar Taveras.
3) Complete a three-way trade with the Braves getting Gregory Polanco; the Pirates getting Lucas Sims, Jose Peraza, Taylor Jungmann, and Victor Roache; and the Brewers getting Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole.
4) Fire Fredi Gonzalez and obtain Ron Roenicke from the Brewers in exchange for Freddie Freeman and cash considerations.
I reckon I agree.
Ditto.
I am going to second the fact that Alex Wood looks a little better than league average….
Yeah, I’m not sure how a 2.9 era (3.2 FIP) over 250 career innings gets you put in the league average bucket.
Unless you’re using a really expansive definition of ‘at worst’ meaning ‘if they perform significantly worse than they’ve ever performed in the past’…Which is a bit disingenuous and not really accurate either, since being pitchers, ‘at worst’ performance-wise they are looking on craigslist for new UCLs.
This seems like something written based upon someone thinking they know who a pitcher is without actually having looked.
I think you’re reading too much into the “league average” and not enough into the “at worst” and also making WAY too much out of one throwaway comment in a piece that is, on balance, pretty kind to the Braves pitching staff as whole. Whatever helps you put this ugly season behind you, I guess.
I’m a Braves fan, but even I’ll admit that there is probably a much less favorable version of this article that could’ve been written. There’s a very real chance that given the financial situation and lack of involved ownership the 2015 team looks almost exactly like the 2014 version. In addition, the Braves aren’t guaranteed the chance to bring either Justin or a Jason back, as they have to want to resign. There’s a realistic worse case scenario where the Braves have to go into full rebuild mode, which is scary because Wren doesn’t seem to like gambling on high ceiling draft pics.
So yeah, I appreciate your restraint in not making us think about that.
Drew thought it was another Wood… He clearly didn’t bother to look him up!
Frank Wren didn’t merely “stand pat” during the off-season, he locked the Braves into “standing pat” for the foreseeable future by doling out a series of well above market extensions (in comparison to extensions signed by players of similar value with similar service time). Without getting into whether or not the Braves in question will eventually prove to earn those deals, the reality is that they were so far above previous extensions by other executives that Dave Cameron wrote several columns using Wren’s deals as evidence that the market had fundamentally changed to place a higher value on young players with service time remaining. That no longer looks to be true given what other deals have been signed since, as it appears that Wren simply paid more than his peers. And while Julio Teheran looks like the best of those extensions thus far, he’s guaranteed $32.4 billion pennies.
So now the question shifts from what should the Braves do to what can they realistically do. The answer could be to emulate the Orioles by signing multiple replacement level players to round out the back end of the roster and compete with each other to fill in around the high-priced “stars.” Releasing B.J. Upton is a frequently mentioned possibility, but that’s a sunk cost with no obvious replacement, so as frustrating as his strikeouts are it isn’t necessarily the right thing, especially if there is any intention to keep his brother. If Atlanta has enough left for one more big extension then I suppose you see who will take less between Upton and Heyward, then deal the other one for cost-controlled pitching.
“That no longer looks to be true given what other deals have been signed since”
Such as?
Heyward will not come cheap on his extension and I simply don’t believe in him as a hitter, he simply lacks the hands to ever hit like Freeman or Upton. Unless he is willing to cut a deal, I would almost certainly let him walk. He’s a premium defender but a lot of his value vanishes if he slips at all in defense. Remember the Carl Crawford contract.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they have a rotating platoon next year between 2nd and 3rd. Gosselin could switch between the two positions in a pinch.
Where do the braves go?
4th in the east. There will always be phillieea
Well I guess we have our answer.