Where Ohtani Would Make the Most Impact
“The best for the group comes when everyone in the group does what’s best for himself and the group.”
–American mathematician John Nash
Shohei Ohtani is fascinating for a number of reasons. We start with the dual talent, of course.
While injury limited him to just five starts as a pitcher in 2017, he struck out 29 and allowed only 13 hits in 25.1 innings — as a 22-year-old. He produced a .332/.403/.540 slash line in 230 plate appearances. In 2016, he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA over 20 starts in the NPB. He struck out 174 and walked 45 in 140 innings. He also OPS’d 1.004 with 22 home runs in 323 at-bats in 104 games.
He was named the league’s best pitcher and best DH.
While Clay Davenport’s deadly accurate statistical translations don’t appear to be available for 2017 NPB play, Davenport’s 2016 translations are available to the public.
For Ohtani, they’re quite good. Consider his 2016 (age-21) numbers translated to MLB performance as a pitcher: 137.1 innings, 107 hits, 46 earned runs, 45 walks, and 140 strikeouts (9.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/K). And as hitter: 324 at-bats, 14 home runs, 34 walks, 89 strikeouts and a .306/.367/.512 slash line.
His volume of work as a pitcher has been conservative, but perhaps around 400 plate appearances would be Ohtani’s ceiling as a DH and/or outfielder.
The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh wrote last year that Ohtani led the NPB with 10.4 WAR in 2016: 5.8 wins as a pitcher, 4.6 as a hitter. Just your run-of-the-mill, 10-win player.
Yes, your enthusiasm is warranted.
It’s his unique talent and unique circumstance that make Ohtani so interesting. Because of his age, he must sign a minor-league contract and is subject to the MLB’s new, more rigid bonus-pool restrictions. While the constraints make under-the-table dealings possible — who is to stop Ohtani from signing a massive contract extension early in his career? — Ohtani doesn’t appear to be motivated by maximizing his contract value.
Assuming that the Ohtani case clears some final hurdles and he’s able to play in the majors in 2018, his recruitment will be fascinating. While the Rangers, Twins, and Yankees have the most international pool money, clubs will have to make a case that goes beyond dollars.
From the AP:
The Rangers can agree to a maximum $3,535,000 signing bonus from their pool that covers July 2 through next June 15, according to figures compiled by Major League Baseball and obtained by The Associated Press. New York can pay $3.25 million and the Twins $3,245,000.
Just three other teams can give him a seven-figure signing bonus: Pittsburgh ($2,266,750), Miami ($1.74 million) and Seattle ($1,570,500)….
Twelve teams are capped at $300,000 as penalties for exceeding their signing bonus pool under baseball’s previous collective bargaining agreement, which did not have a cap: Atlanta, the Chicago Cubs and White Sox, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Oakland, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington.
There’s one question about which everyone is curious: where will Ohtani play?
But there’s another, perhaps more interesting question to ask — namely, where ought Ohtani to play?
A player, of course, must look out for his own interests first and foremost. But this is where I believe the quote by John Nash at the top of his post is relevant: because Ohtani is such an interesting and maybe even transcendent talent, perhaps he also ought to think about what is good for the group and himself.
And in this case, the group includes Major League Baseball and everyone who has an interest in it.
Many have cited the Yankees as the favorite to lure Ohtani. The Yankees benefit, of course, from the game’s largest market, offering the most visibility and endorsement potential. They possess not only a storied tradition and history but also the second-most pool money after the Rangers. So the incentives are immediate.
One could argue that, if Ohtani becomes one of the game’s brightest stars, what’s best for him and the game (think TV ratings) is for him to sign with the Yankees. Nothing could be more compelling than, say, Ohtani and Bryce Harper on the same Yankees club. On the other hand, much like the Dodgers, the Yankees are probably going to be playing in quite a few Octobers in the near- and longer-term future with or without Ohtani. They’ve already built an impressive young core and are expected to be big players in free agency next offseason. New York is going to be good. They’ll draw an audience with or without Ohtani.
Who could Ohtani really help while also helping himself? For the answer, look to the AL West.
To maximize his dual-threat skills, Ohtani best fits in the American League, which offers the DH. (Sorry, National League teams.) No team is really paying for the glove, and there’s an increased risk of injury for Ohtani if he’s forced to play the field.
So what teams could Ohtani really help? And what markets would likely appeal to Ohtani in terms of visibility and marketing potential?
Let’s consider the largest-market AL teams that look like playoff-bubble teams entering 2018 according to FanGraphs’ very early projected standings. These are the teams and markets where Ohtani could theoretically provide the most impact — elevating a team to the postseason — while also playing in a large enough market to offset the financial losses he’s enduring by not waiting to come over to the States. That leaves us with four clubs total, three of which reside (as mentioned) in the AL West: the Angels, Mariners, Rangers, and Blue Jays.
In the early FanGraphs projections, the Angels are projected to finish 84-78, the Blue Jays 83-79, the Mariners 82-80, and the Rangers 76-84. They each enter the season as large-market bubble teams, nor do any of the four feature an overwhelming amount of impact talent knocking on the door from their respective farm systems, according to Baseball America’s midseason top 100 rankings. Ohtani could really, really help.
Moreover, Dallas, Los Angeles, and Seattle all rank in the top 10 in terms of total market size and in Asian-American population amongst major cities in the U.S. Toronto, meanwhile, is a diverse, cosmopolitan city that also features a large Asian-American population.
These are the large-market American League franchises where Ohtani could provide the most on-field impact, where his wins-added would make the greatest difference, and where he would also have the personal benefits of playing in a larger market.
The following are those four clubs’ combined DH and starting-pitcher WAR projections:
Mariners: 14.1 WAR
Blue Jays: 11.8 WAR
Angels: 10.3 WAR
Rangers: 5.8 WAR
All four of these clubs could really use Ohtani’s arm — and, to different degrees, his bat. Let’s examine them one by one, in reverse order of these win forecasts.
The Rangers
Texas would probably most benefit from the addition of Ohtani, but they’re further away from contention in 2018 than the three others clubs here, according to FanGraphs projections. They have the most bonus money available to offer Ohtani, which is one small argument in their favor. We also saw an Ohtani comp, Yu Darvish, succeed in the Metroplex. And consider this note from ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick regarding Ohtani:
One talent evaluator advised keeping an eye on the Rangers, who signed Yu Darvish out of Japan in 2012 and have a strong scouting presence in Asia.
“Their work and overall track record in Asia has always been highly regarded,” the evaluator said. “They’re ahead of the curve on Otani.”
The Rangers have also been connected to native Texan Jake Arrieta and have a real chance to improve their 2018 outlook.
For the record, these are the most likely landing spots for Ohtani according to executives polled by Crasnick:
Yankees 7½ [votes]; Dodgers 7½; Rangers 5; Nippon Ham Fighters 4; Mariners 4; Padres 1; Cubs 1; Astros 1; Giants 1; Red Sox 1.
The Angels
The Angels would be must-see TV with Mike Trout and Ohtani on the same roster in the country’s No. 2 market. The Angels would be a great stars-and-scrubs experiment with, perhaps, two 10-win players and Andrelton Simmons. Of course, the Angels have only $150,000 available for an official bonus. Ohtani will make an impact wherever he lands, but it’s with the Angels where his impact could be maximized. It’s a place where Ohtani could single-handedly push a bubble team into the postseason field while also allowing us to see Trout in October. That’s quite a two-for-the-price-of-one deal — and to this author, it’s the most intriguing landing spot.
The Mariners
Seattle is also of interest. We saw the impact Ichiro made there, 17% of the population is Asian-American, and it is an Ohtani-James Paxton 1-2 rotation punch that could make the Mariners a fascinating team in October.
The Blue Jays
Could Toronto be a fit? The Blue Jays are a team in transition with its aging core. The Blue Jays had the oldest average position player age (30.8 years) last season. But if Ohtani were open to Toronto, the city would be an intriguing fit along with a large volume of games against AL East competition. In Toronto, Ohtani could be the face of baseball for two countries: Japan and Canada.
*****
The Blue Jays could use a 10-win player. All three AL West clubs are seeking to close sizable gaps with the Astros in the West. And any team interested in Ohtani might also want to consider making a play for Ohtani’s countryman and friend, Darvish, to really change their fortunes.
There is perhaps no bad spot for Ohtani to land. Even if he doesn’t land with your team, he’s going to be a great addition to the sport. But it is with these four clubs where he could really elevate a club while also landing in an intriguing large market and also maximizing his skills. That’s good for Ohtani and it could also be really good for the game.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Man, if I’m the Mariners, I am more motivated than anyone to land Ohtani. Frankly, I’m motivated to make Paxton, Darvish, and Ohtani the top of my rotation. I have an aging but good lineup and a terrible rotation. I’ve had experience making Japanese players comfortable. I’m going all out. And I want to see if Ohtani can play some first base too.
I could see the Angels doing something like that too, but they’d have to stick Ohtani as DH over Pujols (or play someone at first base over Cron) and I doubt they’re going to do that (even if they should).
If the Otani’s goal is to win rings & become the best ballplayer he can become, the choice is the Astros. The Astros are well positioned long term to get to the playoffs and potentially win multiple world series. His addition to the rotation will solidify that potential. Further, offensive metrics throughout the Astros’ system show that they could be the best at developing hitters. And Brent Strom is as good a pitching coach as there is in the MLB.
Native Houstonian here. As much as I’d love to have him here, we can’t really offer much to Otani. We’re not as big a media market as the city size suggest, not really a big baseball town and fans are mostly fair weathered. The Japanese presence is fairly small compared to many other potential destinations on the coasts, and overall very little history with Japanese players (not to mention Gurriel’s WS actions certainly won’t help).
Sure, he’d have a great chance to win here, but no more than the Dodgers or the Yankees if they were to add him. And he can get a lot more perks in those other places. He can’t even be the face of the franchise in Houston, given that Correa exist. So we don’t even have that going for us.
Its Texas so the bigot presence is high!
You couldn’t be more wrong
Really? Listen to the people you elect in that state speak ever! Thats who your state votes for, Ted Cruz! Im not saying there arnt some cool parts of Texas, but there are also some super fucking backwards parts as well!
I’m just curious, is Correa really considered the face of the franchise? I thought Altuve, with his stature and MVP candidacy would be the face right now. Both are amazing players, but I feel like I see more Altuve than Correa when watching games.
There are like 4 or 5 teams that are positioned to contend long term and possibly win multiple World Series. Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Indians.
to say that there’s only one choice if he wants to win world series is just absurd. The Dodgers and Yankees also have a history of accommodating Asian players if that’s something that’s important to Ohtani.
Hou is less well positioned long term then LA/NYY big time, and the Cubs have a bad bad bad farm system now. Win now moves take there toll, and HOU has been making a lot of them for 3 years now. They gave up a ton of top prospects in deals with a win now attitude, and they have stripped most of the farm for the MLB roster. A blockbuster or two this winter will leave the system bare, and the whole roster either fits in the age regression bucket like McCann/Guriel, or the Cost me lots to keep. Keeping Altuve/Springer/Bregman/Correa past 2018 will be getting more and more expensive in a hurry. Dynasties are expensive in modern sports!
Ohtani will undoubtedly sign in LA due to the mobs of Iranians settled there.
They are good, but they have also traded a lot of the once vaunted farm system over the last two years, and as much as they have cheap good players this year, the bill is coming due, it will cost a lot more to retain Correa/Springer/Altuve/Kuechil beyond 2018, and they already have a payroll that is past what they’ve done in the past. You also have to consider the regression/injury monster. Nobody anywhere who watched the 2015 WS thought the Mets would be drafting in the top 10 this year while still having almost every star that got them there in 2015. I wouldn’t count on Gattis/McCann/Marwin/Morton performing at the same level next year, and the better the young guys play the more costly it becomes to keep the band together.
After the top of the farm its not looking pretty, and the team is not drafting number one three years running anymore, so acquiring the next wave of affordable star talent wont be nearly as easy.
I really hope there is an exception created for Ohtani that would allow him to sign a major league deal. While Ohtani could make a bigger raw win difference with the teams listed, if he goes to a team like the Dodgers or Yankees, he will likely increase their chances or winning a World Series more.
I think that if Ohtani is interested in being a critical member of his team he will not be interested in maximizing the team’s WAR with him compared to without him or even in pushing a team into the postseason field that otherwise might not be there. He will be interested in pushing a team over the top to winning multiple World Series titles. The effect of his performance will be most measured by the effectiveness of his performances in those big game situations. What he should naturally most want is a team around him that can consistently give him the opportunity to be tested so. I also think this is the sort of contribution most fans are looking for.
“Toronto, meanwhile, is a diverse, cosmopolitan city that also features a large Asian-American population.”
Aren’t they Asian-Canadians?
Well Canada is located within North America…
No one is going to call an Asian person in Mexico, Guatemala, or Panama (all North America) an “Asian-American”.
I also ask legitimately, as I don’t know the answer, would a Japanese person take comfort in there being a lot of generically “Asian” people in a place if few of them are Japanese? Toronto has a significant Asian population, but relatively small population of residents with Japanese origin.
The classic Canadian distinctions are English-Canadian and French-Canadian. I would assume it would be Japanese-Canadian, but I’m not sure how they’re most comfortable identifying.
Those are linguistic distinctions, not national-origin distinctions. The divisions you’re describing are, in Canada, called “Anglophone” and “Francophone” and it gets more complicated after that (Québécois and Métis are proudly not-French in a national sense, and a large number of Francophone Quebeckers are immigrants from other French-speaking countries). It’s true that Japanese-Canadians represent a very small percentage of the “Asian” population in Canada, especially relative to the comparatively massive Chinese-Canadian and Indo-Canadian groups. Nationally it doesn’t even show up in the top 20 ethnic origins reported by Stats Canada.
Which doesn’t mean a sensation like Ohtani wouldn’t be embraced by Toronto (though arguably somebody like Persian-Japanese Darvish is actually an even better reflection of its diversity). Jays fans loved Bautista despite the lack of a large Dominican-Canadian population, after all, and took a shine to Munenori Kawasaki despite his relative lack of playing ability.
Agreed. Why would Ohtani care that there are significant Vietnamese and Indian populations in, say, Houston? Better to focus on cities with Japanese populations specifically – LA, Seattle, NYC, SF.
Seems like NYY, LAD, and Sea are the favorites to me.
While it is true that there are far more Indian, Chinese, and South-Asian people in the Greater Toronto Area, there are also ~20,000 Japanese people, which isn’t nothing.
I will agree though that I’d say the appeal of Toronto isn’t a lot of people of YOUR ethnicity, but rather a lot of ethnic variety.
I believe that the population of 20,000 Japanese in Toronto is 2nd highest among MLB markets, behind the Bay Area. So in terms of MLB teams, the Blue Jays are very well positioned to use that as a selling point.
Isnt it kinda racist to assume that Ohtani wants to live somewhere with other Japanese people? We don’t assign FA probabilities to african-american free agents based on how many african-americans live in a city.
This isn’t about race, it’s about language.
Ohtani doesn’t speak English and may never master it, so it makes sense he would want to live where there are people he can actually talk to.
There is not much of a culture shock when an English-speaking African American signs in Cleveland after playing in Detroit. Japan to North America is a little different.
Furthermore, North American-born players often choose to play in a city based on personal comfort and lifestyle factors. Why would it be ‘racist’ to think a strong Japanese community might be important to Otani?
I don’t know that it is for him, but it would be for me in his shoes.
I met a bartender in VBC who identified himself as “Japanadian”.
But they pay you in Loony Toons money so I mean really is it millions of dollars when you call it that? For reals though I remember there were some rather bad tax implications playing for TOR, and if the dollar does better in relation to the Loon the player loses out I believe.
Players are paid in USD, so currency doesn’t matter. There are certainly tax implications involved (Texas has no state taxes which can be a big consideration), but California is a fairly high-taxed state as well, so the gap isn’t huge.
It was a big deal for Jose Reyes and company when the Marlins dealt them up there I remember. Maybe the team benefited at times from the exchange since they have to pay in dollars.
But where does Toronto rank in Asian-American population among major US cities?
Can teams trade international signing bonus money? I might be (i.e. probably am) misunderstanding the rule, but I thought teams could trade their international “cap space”.
If so, this seems like a great reason to do so. Some teams (Yankees for sure) will run into difficult decisions about their 40 man rosters. I would think they could trade players they might need to expose to the rule 5 draft for “cap space” for international signings.
Yes–you can trade for up to 50% or 75% of your original bonus amount (or something like that). However, if you’re in the penalty box and capped at $300K, this won’t help you. The Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Giants, and Nationals (among others that have less of a shot) are in the penalty box and will have to hope signing bonuses won’t matter as much as other factors.
(Note that the Angels and a few other teams have spent down their whole bonus amount, so they can increase their pool but are starting from a really low spot)
Only one non-Astros roster on the AL West is on the upswing, and it isn’t the rapidly aging Mariners & Rangers, nor is it the Angels and their completely barren farm system…
You’re right, it’s the team where heavy rains cause sewage to flood the coaches’ bathrooms.
You could try to mitigate this by arguing that since California often has severe drought problems, you won’t deal with poop overflows that much. Instead, you’ll just have to deal with living in a state that is literally on fire.
I can see the recruiting pitch now.
You’re right–the only thing holding the A’s back right now is the single-worst stadium situation in baseball. But with the Laney College site progressing, and the fact that the entire A’s 40-man roster consists of…
2018 – $18 ($6 each to Lowrie, Joyce, Casilla)
2019 – $0 (the other 37 players on the 40-man are either pre-ARB, ARB1 or ARB2)
…their future is wide-open.
New stadium announced this year, and if things go quickly they were working on a pretty conservative timeline, so the Colloseum is only a problem till 2021-2023, and literally the only thing you can really say about OAK that isnt good for the pitch is the park. OAK is the strongest team in the division talent wise for 2020 on thats currently in the system.
So your pitch is going to be that you only have to deal with poop until 2021 at the earliest, and 2023 at the latest? Let me know how that goes.
The Angels will be dealing with poop until 2021 as well. It’s just called “Albert Pujols” in SoCal.
I don’t see why Ohtani would be bothered by Albert Pujols, whereas he may well be bothered by raw sewage flooding the locker room. Don’t confuse the front office situation with the player experience.
You really think Ohtani isn’t going to eliminate teams with incompetent front offices? Dude’s gonna be stuck with the organization he chooses for six-ish years. I cannot imagine that “current stadium situation” will outweigh “front office that’s comically wasting Mike Trout’s prime.”
I admire your unflagging optimism that the Oakland A’s are a strong contender for Ohtani’s services. Good luck to you sir/ma’am.
Oh, I don’t think there’s a chance in hell he ends up in Oakland. But there’s even a smaller chance in hell he ends up in Anaheim or Seattle.
That “Shit” was dealt with long ago bro. Its not a great place as a fan to be if you have ever been there, and the fanbase has been fair weatherish over the last couple decades, but on the flip its one of the more pitcher friendly parks for him. I have been to the Colosseum tons of times its not great, but its not as bad as its made out to be. It is utterly insane when it does fill up as the team contends. People were saying no place was louder then the Oakland Mausoleum last time the playoffs were there. The point though is its only a problem for a couple years, and the clubhouse isnt sub par, its just a big concrete block.
Yes, surely Otani is leaving tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars on the table to come to the US now just so he can play on a mediocre team for 3 seasons in the hopes that enough of their prospects work out to make them contenders in 2020.
Are you describing the A’s or the Angels?
Oh yeah Hou is soooooooo built for the future with the farm they have been stripping for three straight years, and a core thats rapidly closing on FA or Arb.
They have peaked and are currently trying to do as much with the window before it closes.
According to Lindbergh, Neifi projects the total value of the Astros’ MLB and MiLB talent to be $244 million greater than any other MLB franchise. Although they can’t carry a $200+ million payroll, they are set up fairly well.
That being said, I’d be surprised if Ohtani isn’t playing for the Yankees.
How longs that talent under contract, what do they cost compared to that value, how is that cost changing? They just won the world series so its not shocking that they have really high value currently, but as I said the window isnt opening its already been open for 3 seasons, and they wont have it open forever. Play better, draft worse, and they will keep dealing future value for current upgrades to build on this window. They have some key FA coming next year, and expecting Altuve to rape himself on the next contract isnt realistic. The rest of the core is about to get pricier in a hurry, and Correa especially has shown no interest in a extension.
he’ll help with the team that’s able to maximize the payroll space saved by his contract, so yea. yankees or dodgers
At the risk of this devolving into a “Pick me, pick me!” contest, if Ohtani is interested in the glory of ending the longest drought in the Majors, on a team well-poised to win their division, and money isn’t the object it normally is, well then, Cleveland can be his kind of destination!
I agree, he should join the Mariners and help end the longest playoff drought in MLB!
I think he should go to a team in California to protect its agriculture against droughts.
Since it has never rained there at all (no WS at all) it’s not a drought.
Might he be worth more WAR if, when he’s pitching, his hitting is replacing the hitting of a SP? If Bumgarner can produce 1 WAR with a 70 wRC+, he may produce 1.5+ WAR with the bat every 5th day. That’s probably similar in value to a DH on 4/5 of days. Then if he has a place to play on the field during the other 4 days, he can add value there.
I assume if Ohtani was looking to maximize personal WAR, he would look to the NL, on a team where he could play every day he wasn’t also pitching.
Noticing the downvotes… is that because that folks support an AL team and don’t want him to choose an NL team? Because the expected OPS (.664) for what he’d be replacing for 1/5 of SP and 4/5 of LF, say, would be much less than that of a DH.
League wide OPS by position:
DH: .750
1B: .832
LF: .753
CF: .762
RF: .797
P: .307
I didn’t downvote, but I wonder if it is because no one expects him to maximize potential WAR (which is potentially even less relevant than how much he would improve a contender).
I think the bigger issue would be whether he would prefer an NL team because he has to hit at least some of the time, or an AL team that will promise him 2-3 games at DH in between starts.
Wouldn’t maximizing his potential WAR help him a lot in contract extension negotiations?
No its because an NL team wont give him the same number of at bats. In the NL he would maybe maybe be allowed to play the field 2 of 5 days. In JPN he was pitching once every seven with two days off after a start and 4 days playing the field out of seven.
So if he cant throw in the field for two days after every start he’s looking at batting in his starts only for as long as he can stay in as pitcher, and then playing the field in the two days before he starts again, and I could see a team not wanting to see him throwing in from the OF the day before a start as well. So that leaves him with maybe 2-3 plate appearances each on his 3 starts every two weeks, another 3 PA in pinch hit appearances in every game he’s benching between starts, and one or two days with a full 3-5. That would give him 18-28PA every 15 days.
Compare that to an AL team that DHs him on 3 of 5 days and might be able to keep him as the DH after he exits in his starts so he would be rested the day after a start. over 15 days with an AL team getting 3 per start and 3-5 on DH days he would get 36-52PA every 15 days. So he can basically realistically hit twice as often with an AL team while also not throwing non-pitches with his prized arm.
Also every single team that wants to sign him must be thinking that they really would rather just have the bat and the pitching. No team is going to want one of the key starters on the team making throws to home deep in the outfield with a start tomorrow. Most NL teams will want to get him as many ABs as they can, but I think only a very small few would be willing to let him play OF more then 1/5, and all of them would not want him playing the field, but what he could do would be a compromise to try and sign him.
If he’s a SP in the AL, he can’t replace the DH if he’s replaced by another pitcher. He could start the game and simultaneously be DH, but then the team would lose his bat if/when he was removed for another pitcher. The pitcher who replaced him would have to hit, or be taken out for a pinch hitter. The team would lose the DH position for the rest of the game.
What is stopping a team from agreeing to release Ohtani after 1 or 2 years in order to get him to sign with them?
Would the league really punish this team for going against their interest in dropping him? It’s not like they’re sneaking in money to woo him.
The thing stopping a team from doing that is that it’s a terrible idea.
OAK was able to land Cespedes with a 4 year deal when they wouldnt have otherwise, I am pretty sure they changed this with the new CBA though where its no longer allowed at least for some contracts.
He might go through waivers instead of being released because of service time. If true, that means the San Diego Padres will then grab him on a waiver claim.
Releasing Ohtani after 1-2 years wouldn’t make him a free agent. He’d go through the waivers system as a released player with whatever MLB service time he’s accrued, so he’d still be subject to minimum salary and then arbitration. He’d just be on a really bad team, due to waiver priority rules, that he didn’t choose to join.
If the Mariners get him, that pushes either him or Cruz to the field more often. Could be a two-edged sword, though – if he doesn’t work out as a hitter, it’s a great excuse to not give him a ton of ABs. But if he does come as a legit bat, then you have to put one in the field.
The Jays and Angels also have essentially DH-only bats in Morales and Pujols, although both have been bad enough that they’d likely be more than willing to give them lots of days off.
And not like Texas is also lacking in DH availability, with Choo/Gallo/Calhoun/Mazara basically 4 left-handed bats with limited defensive profiles, to fill in DH/1B/LF/RF.
Of course, if he’s worth it, any of the teams can make it work.
From a baseball perspective, though, I think the Angels would be best, especially if Ohtani can be what pushes them to the playoffs. We all want to see what Trout can do in October/November.
Teach Cruz to play first maybe? I hear it’s not that hard.
“It’s incredibly hard”
I love you, Fangraphs.
Despite having a plethora of DH options already, Texas really does make the most cents.
If the Angels sign Ohtani, they can go ahead and just drop Pujols. They’re already getting 0 WAR from him anyway and that figure could very well turn negative this year. Actually, the Angels should drop Pujols whether they sign Ohtani or not.
LAA drops Pujols, Ohtani is a no show with the bat, Pujols finds a health and career resurgence with someone else paying him the minimum while LAA forks over his 30mm salary. So this is the Hamilton move on steriods then huh? I mean you know with the way things work for LAA right?
You know, Gallo can play third; he shouldn’t be in this group. He’s not elite but he’s ok.
I think they already have a 3B who might be a little better with the glove than Gallo…
If/when the Yankees fail to sign Ohtani, they will need a pitcher and a DH, but getting good ones in free agency while staying under the cap will be impossible. That could be the landing spot for a displaced DH. Perhaps a deal based around Hicks for Cruz?
The John Nash quote and the conceit of deciding where Ohtani “ought” to play based on “what is good for the group” were wastes of time — at best. If by “the most impact” you mean “the greatest increase in playoff probabilities,” fine. That’s a nice, tight Fangraphs article.
But suggesting that Ohtani “ought” to play on one of those teams is ridiculous: he “ought” to play for the team that he prefers. Maybe that’s the team that maximizes HIS chance of winning a World Series, not vice versa.
Thanks so much for this David, you said what we were all thardjinking.
Yeah, from Otani’s perspective, it seems awfully tough to argue that helping the Angels snatch a Wild Card or two is more valuable than playing in 4 or 5 postseasons with the Dodgers or Yankees.
I think Travis addressed this issue by saying “A player, of course, must look out for his own interests first and foremost.”
If I understand it that teams absolutely CANNOT exceed the bonus pools limit and its really NOT going to come down to money, it will probably come down to where Ohtani feels comfortable, where the opportunity is vs. what he wants to do, etc. And we really don’t know. Maybe he wants to be a SP and play the field (1B?) so…any NL (or AL) team that gives him this opportunity has a leg up. Then there is culture and proximity to Japan…which I would imagine would favor the west coast cities like SFO, SEA, LA, but…maybe he really does favor a small town type of feel like CLE, or MIL? I think the only teams we can really rule out are MIA, SD, COL (unless he wants to just hit and be a RP?) and…? Could be ANYONE, it just depends on what Ohtani wants, and he really hasn’t said much.
Still think the Rays have a great shot.
SP, 4th OF, interleague DH and PH’er for Pittsburgh. ~300 PAs for him there. All Huntington has to do is show the willingness to take the risk and play him in RF a day or two a week.
ITS ALL IN CAPS SO YOU LISTEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FOR EVERYONE, NOT JUST PIT, NO TEAM IN BASEBALL WANTS OHTANI IN THE OF!!!!!!!!!!! EVER!!!!!!!
Some teams will allow him to play the field if its the difference in signing him, but no GM in baseball wants a top 3 SP on the team playing in the field ever.
For the NL teams its a question of how far out of there comfort zone they will go to entice him. For AL teams your still going to see pushback against DHing if hes only avg or slightly above with the bat, and premium on the mound. No team will want him doing both unless he’s good at both.
But that is the point – it isnt about what the teams want, it is about what Ohtani wants and how he prioritizes his future. Its really hard to believe that there isnt 1 team out of 30 that would commit OF time in order to get him signed to the cheap contract. Odds are many team’s would take that risk versus no Ohtani at all. The financial commitment is so small and the marketing return will dwarf the contract.
They are all going to compromise. He might sign with an AL team that has room to just DH him, but they may agree to stick him in the field if thats what it takes to sign him. I think the general push by NL team fans is not the reality of the situation within those teams FO. I know everyone wants to sign him, but if batting a lot of the time, as well as a promise that he will be able to continue to going forward as he becomes more expensive to the team. I think only a team with a DH can really say, if you can hit your in the lineup, NL teams will stick on no number 2 starters diving in the field. I realize for a few teams with good depth on both sides could risk it, but a lot of GMs just wont want the downside of letting him field. Every single outfield play risks the health of your rotation! They want to sell him on being a interleague DH and pinch hitter, but if he wants to be a qualifying hitter he cant in the NL without fielding often.
Does anybody know how ESPN or any other fantasy site will deal with his Pitching & Hitting? Currently if your pitcher hits a HR then you don’t get to count it. Will he be listed as “SP, DH (1B, OF)”?
I remember talking about that in one of the chats. I think the working theory is that there will be two Ohtani’s in the draft pool: one pitcher and one position player, meaning he will take up two roster spots. Apparently, it would be too expensive for the fantasy sites to reprogram their software to handle Ohtani’s unique situation.
Dang that’s really sad to hear. If only they would put some kind of effort into it.
plus he becomes an auto start over any pitcher if he’s the only non NL starter to even get a chance of extra batting points, and one of only two or three SP in baseball that could consistently add value batting. It just doesn’t work in fantasy to have one player thats that different from every other in expected value. Trout is valuable in fantasy, but not nearly like he is compared to other players IRL. Ohtani would be the fantasy equivalent of Trout vs AAA.
One aspect that could be intriguing is that a couple of days off of a start as a pitcher Ohtani could be playing RF with a LHP starting, thereby giving some free platoon matchups against righthanded hitters in spots without burning a BP spot. That could be in lieu of his between-starts BP workout. You need a creative manager to do things like that.We know Maddon and Francona are creative. Who else is?
Your analysis is great except that you depart from your opening quote. What’s “best” for Shohei has nothing to do with money or who needs him most. Multiple profiles mention that he hardly spends any of his money (his family now manages it) and that his joy comes from his bat, not his arm. He pitches because he’s good. He bats because he loves it. (Even outside his millions in endorsements from Japan – any major market will provide 8 figure endorsements – more if he performs anywhere near as expected.)
The key attraction might be more along the lines of where he can have the most opportunities to hit, play with the best and win. That substantially changes the list IMHO to Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox. I’m not sure whether having Darvish on the same team would be attractive or repelling – I could make a case either way – but clearly if larger Japanese population is important to him, the Dodgers would clearly be the #1 option, assuming LA is willing to adopt to making his bat a priority. I’m biased of course – but I doubt there is a better manager for this type of player than Joe Maddon. It should be interesting.
I agree with your point, that we didn’t actually address what is best for Ohtani. Since he’s been a DH in Japan, and he likes hitting, I would go against your conclusion that any NL team has a chance.
Who will let him be a semi-regular DH? Both Tampa Bay and the White Sox could give him almost a guarantee. Small market TB on the periphery of the playoff race might be able to pull it off, plus he’d get to hit in those tiny AL East stadiums.
Toronto should be in the discussion too, but limiting DH opportunities for Morales only the 2nd year into the deal would be a bit humiliating for management. Blue Jays could use another OF too, but I don’t think Ohtani plays a major league outfield.
Except for the dozen teams in penalty mode, the money will be basically the same no matter where he plays, so that levels the playing field for TB.
It seems like a strange place for him to choose, though.
Didnt he only DH this year because of injuries? I thought he was an OF 4 days a week DH 2 and pitching 1 before this season when he could only DH for most of the year.
I think Boston could be a sleeper candidate. They are already a playoff team and a fringe contender; he could easily put them over the top.
He gets to hang out and learn from Sale (and Price, I guess, for whatever that’s worth). He ought to be able to get a decent number of at bats at DH, allowing the Red Sox to slide Hanley to first on those days.
It’s a city and a park with a ton of history, and he might like banging doubles off the Green Monster.
While Boston doesn’t have a huge Japanese-American population, it’s not negligible. And they have had a very rich history of Japanese pitchers with Daisuke, Tazawa, Ohka, Okajima, and Uehara.
I think its interesting that in a post like this where you focus on the ALW you would so wildly discount the A’s since I would say them and SEA are the two top options from the division.
The case for OAK:
1. The Bay Area is one of the top media markets in baseball and the largest out of SEA TEX OAK HOU, also there is huge exposure to tech endorsements which I would think are popular in Japan.
2. The Bay Area has both a large Asian, and Japanese population, and former Japanese players have enjoyed OAK, Matsui really liked his time with the club.
3. The point at which Ohtani would start being compensated higher in any extension is also right in line with the first few years in OAK new stadium that should be open by or before the 2023 season.
4.OAK has 0 dollars committed past this season so they have the payroll space for any sort of extension.
5. OAK is a rebuilding team with a sneaky good farm system, and a lot of its core talent hitting in the next two seasons, or already on the MLB team with 5+ years of control remaining, Ohtani wants a challenge, and wants to be a difference maker, which with OAK he would be.
6. Melvin is a very well respected manager, especially when it comes to player relations, so he would provide a comfortable transition environment while Ohtani becomes acclimated.
7. No team in baseball has shown more willingness to try new things, and innovate then OAK. I would say of any team in MLB BB and OAK would be the most likely to build there roster usage around Ohtani being a two way threat. I could easily see Oak working a six man rotation or giving Ohtani some days in the field if he wants them. I think BB would be the most likely Ops guy to compromise his pitch to suit Ohtani’s wishes.
8. If he wants to cement his Ruthian legacy, coming to OAK now and building a championship club around him as they move into a new ballpark, that is still in the early stages enough to try to tailor to his game, would give him the opportunity to have “The house that Ohtani built”.
9. The Bay Area for the most part is extremely diverse, and one of the least racist areas of MLB team locations.
10. The team has a history of success and stature in baseball, as well as winning despite obstacles in the recent past.
11. The team has been known to work out interesting win/win agreements in the past, such as Cespedes being a FA after four seasons.
12. Despite observational bias with OAK because of how far back they were at one point, the team finshed 5 games out of second in the division, and within a couple of two teams that you highlighted, and unlike others (who may or may not have the best position player on the planet, and still can’t buy a playoff birth, ANA is like a guy with a fistful of pardons that cant get laid at a Womens prison, I mean who would willingly sign on to Art Morenos shit show?), and OAK was middle of the pack or better in the second half, being top 3 in position player WAR after the break, and finishing the season 17-10.
The downsides of course are that even with Ohtani they wouldn’t be favorites next season(Curse you Altuve), and the team is limited to a 300k offer.
I think by 2019 with Kapperilian, Fowler, Baretto, Puk, Mateo, Chapman, Olson, Neuse, Murphy, Pinder OAK would have a really good young core all around the same age as Ohtani that should be competitive in the division, since on top of that group OAK also has 0 dollars committed anywhere, so they can realistically sign a couple guys to complete the picture. This coming year has low expectations, and could basically be all about Ohtani, also giving him a low pressure environment to work in as he adjust to MLB. He can 0fer out his first few weeks and its no big deal.
I would assume the pitch to Ohtani would be come get your feet wet this season, while we finish our rebuild by trading Davis, Joyce, Lowrie, Healy, Trienan, Hendricks, and maybe Marcus if he’s usurped. Now almost all of those guys aren’t FAs next year so if the team is in it they can stay, as Lowrie/Joyce are the only two who would go next winter, and the team can reasonably hope for some midseason callups to help.
The real question next year for contention, is whether they get bounce backs and or breakouts from a combination of Graveman, Bassit, Manea, Triggs, Cotten, Montas, Gosset, Megden, Blackburn, et all. I would expect career years out of most of them, since as much as we believed in Steven Vogt, his catching was below avg. Also instead of the all league worst defense of 2016, and what was a projected to be all time bad, like seriously theres a FG article from like June that looked at how OAK up to that point was on pace for a all time worst defense in baseball history, 2017 first half defense. The team next season will run out an IF of 3B Chapman SS Semien 2B Lowrie 1B Olson and OF of CF Fowler LF PTBNL trade or FA sign RF Pinder and DH K Davis always if possible. That defense grades out as avg or better, and a wild improvement over the defense that the team has run out for most of those pitchers starts. I cant name how many times Kris Davis extended an inning last year with a throw so bad my balls cringe.
Oak is not all that far away from most of the division, and might actually be better then a couple of teams both next year and moving forward. I would take OAK farm system over TEX/ANA/SEA any day, and I think that while HOU has a top 5 that are compareable to OAK the A’s go way ahead of them on depth, where I think OAK has the best 20-40 prospects in baseball, guys like Tyler Ramirez who hit 305/397/430 across two leagues in his first full season going from A- last season to AA this year, while still managing a .399 OBP in AA, isnt even in the teams top 30 right now on MLB.
Seattle might actually let Ohtani play 1B or even RF, with exception to the day before he pitches. DHing is all Cruz for now. Maybe Ohtani would bat the days he pitches, with Cruz pinch hitting, but that’s about it. Still, easy to see Seattle as a landing spot.
It goes beyond the history of Japanese players being treated well and the Japanese community there. It’s also about the low-key lifestyle away from the stadium. If he’s looking for privacy, he would get it there.
He almost for sure wont be throwing at all on the day after any start.
One thing missing from this analysis is what each team would have to do to clear room for Ohtani to DH. The Rangers would have to eat or move 3 years of Choo at an AAV of $18.6M and the Angels 4 years of Pujols at $24.0M. The Mariners, though, could deal Nelson Cruz’s walk year (at just $14.2M) and get a nice return. The Astros and especially the Yankees would be all over that, as he’d provide a 3+ win upgrade while they wait for Harper or Machado.
The thing is that even if he helps those teams more, they have nothing to offer. Yankees play in a modern facility, have the greatest endorsement potential especially with a core that will win for years to come, and is also direct flight to Japan like the WC teams. They also have the most money to spend in bonus and have an open DH spot
The negative is YS3 and the AL east will hurt his pitching line. Thats offset by the fact both will help as a hitter.
Face it boys, Ohtani is destined to be in pinstripes unless him and Tanaka have a problem with sharing the limelight. That perhaps is the only possible reason he may choose another team. Boston is possible if thats the case.
Boston may help his numbers more as both a hitter and pitcher due to its HR suppression and fact its a doubles haven (asuming he hits to the opposite field a lot). There is also more space in RF for singles to fall in since it doesnt seem he is a big HR guy.
Of course, facing the Yankees lineup 5 times a year as a pitcher is a big negative
Dombrowsi hasn’t shown the slightest interest in Ohtani which means he’s all in. Even the largest pool money is insignificant to what he will in reality be making. There is no good reason to even bring that up. Where he can best fit and shine most with a contender #1 (NEW York and Boston), weather and lifestyle #2 (west coast), Japanese and Asian population, last. Yankees, probably.
3 players accounted for 55% of the team’s WAR for the 2001 Diamondbacks. I think with Trout, Ohtani, and Simmons the Angels would be fantastic.
Sorry if already discussed elsewhere, but is it Ohtani or Otani?
Neither – https://medium.com/@DanielBrim/is-it-otani-or-ohtani-4e6548c27ed6
Can someone explain to me why just signing him to a minor league contract they can’t pay him whatever they want? I’m no expert but I can’t figure out why you can’t off him a minor league contract that pays him his true market value unless this is all collusion from the different teams to make sure he isn’t going to be paid much.
Because the CBA limits bonus amounts paid as part of minor league contracts to INTL FA and there is no such thing as a multi-year minor league deal. Once he is put on the 40 man his salary automatically is set to league minimum due to service time and he can’t be given a different MLB deal per the rules. The CBA also has broad language to allow MLB to strike down any attempt to skirt the rules. The grey area begins with how soon is too soon to sign him to an extension.
“The Blue Jays could use a 10-win player”
Indeed
I am a Japanese whos been following MLB for over 40 years. I think the true reason Ohtani wants to go to MLB right now than 2 years later, is that he wants to enter the Hall of Fame. You need to go early in order to enter the Hall. That is what he has been saying in the JP media. But I havent heard him say that to foreign media for some reason.
As for Asian presence in a city, I dont think thats much of a factor. Its different from a Latin community, 1. Koreans, Chinese and Japanese all speak different languages, 2. The 3 countries hate each other historically. And, I would look for a western culture in the US such as a rodeo drive, or a broadway. Although I love koreatown and chinatown, theyre still all foreign and the priority is not there. Japanese presence would help, but in the end I dont think these would be deciding factors, with the exception of New York City and Los Angeles.
Major factors in Ichiro choosing Seattle was, 1. closest city to Japan by air, 2. ownership was Japanese (Nintendo), not Asian presence.
I hope Ohtani goes to the Twins or Rangers. But the Angels are quite possible but then what are they going to do with Pujols at DH?
They could reduce Pujols’ ABs. He wasn’t exactly great this year.
Late to replying, but loved the comment on the first mention of my hometown Twins. Our local scribe (baseball writer) is the former President of the BBWAA and he seems to believe the Twins are a top 3 team in contention for him due to their ability to offer a high signing bonus and the Twins current front office stance/talk on where the team stands is drastically different than the previous regime.
While the Twins have three young and promising outfielders, they really do not have a true everyday DH and have used it to get spell guys from the field. They obviously need a front end starting pitcher, so the sweepstakes to acquire a unique talent will be interesting to follow as it reaches its conclusion.
If my Phils have no shot at him (and I don’t think they have a shot), I’d much prefer him to sign for any AL West team.
Just please… not the Yankees or the Dodgers. That’s all I ask.