Whit Merrifield, King of Stealing Third

If I asked you to visualize the prototypical stolen base, you’d probably picture a runner taking off for second. Conversely, if I asked you to conjure up the most thrilling stolen base you could imagine, you’d pick a play at the plate. Stolen bases at third, then, are the neglected middle child — too infrequent to warrant much conversation or analysis, but not unusual enough to drum up excitement. But third is more than just the base between second and home, and stealing third regularly and efficiently is a distinct skill.

For one thing, steals of third base make for a faster showdown between catcher and runner. The average pop time on a throw to second last season was 1.97 seconds; on a throw to third, it was 1.55 seconds — nearly half a second quicker. The distance between bases, however, is the same all around the diamond, which means a runner needs a much better jump when he’s going for third. Thus, stealing third is less of a race and more of a mind game. Pure speed is less important, but the perfect lead and a well-timed jump are invaluable.

Similarly, prospective third-base-stealers also have to do a little extra mental math. The break-even point for stealing bases changes depending on the number of outs, and the amount it changes by is more extreme when stealing third. For example, stealing third with one out has a lower break-even point than stealing second in any situation. On the other hand, stealing third with two outs has a higher break-even point than stealing second in any situation. In other words, what counts as a good opportunity to steal second stays relatively consistent, but what counts as a good time to swipe third is highly dependent on the number of outs. This adds another element to the mind game of stealing third base.

If you require further proof that swiping third is a cool and unique skill, look no further than Whit Merrifield, the king of this particular art:

What you just watched is the first result that popped up when I googled “Whit Merrifield stealing third base,” but it also happens to be a masterclass in the craft. He took a comfortable lead and timed his jump perfectly, taking off the instant Luis Garcia lifted his leg. He’s already halfway to the bag before the ball reaches the catcher’s glove, and he gets to the base before the throw, giving the third baseman no chance to tag him out.

Here’s another example. You can see Merrifield’s helmet at the bottom of the screen as he darts to third. All Christian Vázquez can do is shrug as he slides in safely without contest:

Merrifield is perfectly good at stealing second base, too. He’s a talented baserunner all around. The Blue Jays’ utility man has led the AL in steals three times, and he has the 13th-most stolen bases among active players. He ranks sixth in weighted stolen base runs since his big league debut. Yet while most of his stolen bases have come at second, his secret weapon is the 90-foot dash from second to third. He has the third-most SB3 (stolen bases at third) among active players, and the two names ahead of him — Billy Hamilton and Elvis Andrus — have far more total stolen bases and stolen base attempts. Therefore, on a rate basis, no one does it better than Merrifield. The following table lists every active major leaguer (according to Baseball Reference) with at least 85 career stolen bases. Only one runner on the list has taken third for more than 30% of his total steals:

Of Merrifield’s 175 career steals, 55 have been of third base. Only four other players on the list have stolen third for even a quarter of their total stolen bases: Mondesi, Inciarte, Pollock, and Hamilton. What’s more, Merrifield doesn’t just steal third base frequently; he steals it efficiently. His 91.7% success rate ranks third on this list, behind only Trevor Story (5-for-5) and Trea Turner (40-for-43). Neither of their leads is very secure, either; if Story and Turner each get caught one more time, Merrifield will jump to the top.

Merrifield is consistent, too. From 2017 to ’21, he ranked top five in SB3 each year. At least 19% of his stolen bases have been at third in every season of his career, and his SB3/SB has been at least 37% higher than league average every year. He led the league with 16 SB3 in both 2018 and ’21, making him one of only nine players in the 21st century to have stolen third at least 15 times in a season. Only four have done so twice:

And how do Merrifield’s career numbers compare to those of prolific base-stealers like Pierre and Beltrán? As it turns out, he stacks up pretty well:

Once again, Merrifield is the only one to have racked up more than 30% of his steals at third. He’s second in SB3 success rate, trailing only Willy Taveras, who was something of a one-hit wonder; although he stole third base 19 times in 2008, he only had 24 SB3 in his career. Merrifield has stolen third more than twice as often with a similarly impressive success rate.

Merrifield’s accomplishments are all the more impressive given the era he plays in. Until recently, SB3 (as a percentage of total stolen bases) had been steadily rising, reaching a peak of 15.1% in 2017. Since 2018, however, SB3/SB has been on the decline:

When Merrifield stole third 16 times in 2021, it accounted for 5.7% of the league’s total SB3. No player in the 21st century has been responsible for a larger percentage of the league’s SB3 in a single season. Even when Hamilton stole third 20 times in 2016, it only accounted for only 5.4% of SB3 that year. Adjusted for the era he played in, Merrifield’s 2021 season was the most dominant third-base-stealing performance in recent memory. I told you he was the king.

Now here comes the bad news: Merrifield didn’t steal third nearly as often in 2022. His SB3 rate (as a percentage of his total steals) was the lowest it’s ever been, as was his SB3 success rate:

Merrifield’s midseason move to the Blue Jays certainly played a role in all this. He didn’t attempt to steal third at all with Toronto, and it’s not hard to guess why. The Jays had the best offense in the American League in the second half, and stealing third isn’t as meaningful when you have a lineup full of teammates who can drive you home from second. Toronto was tied for last in the AL with only four SB3 all season; it clearly wasn’t a strategy the team was interested in pursuing.

Yet even with the Royals, Merrifield’s SB3 numbers were unusual in 2022, and it’s harder to explain. His sprint speed was in the 84th percentile, and he wasn’t any slower than the year before. Besides, stealing third isn’t a skill I’d expect to decline so quickly with age, since it’s more about skill and timing than pure speed. With that in mind, I’m willing to chalk it up to small sample size. Merrifield only played 95 games for the Royals, and his OBP was the lowest it’s ever been, meaning he had fewer chances to steal; you have to reach base before you can steal one. In addition, the Royals had fewer right-handed hitters in 2022 than they’ve had in recent years. Righties stand between home plate and third base, giving the catcher an obstacle on stolen base attempts. In 2021, the Royals gave 59.4% of plate appearances to RHH (other than Merrifield); last year, that number fell to 51.6%.

Thus, Merrifield remains the king until someone steals his crown. Here’s hoping the Blue Jays give him the green light a little more often this season. Considering his elite 91.7% success rate, he deserves the chance to keep running for third.