Rays See Shadow: Four More Years of Springs

Jeffrey Springs
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The Rays front office has more than earned the benefit of the doubt in terms of talent evaluation, particularly when it comes to pitching. At this point, they have a long history of player development and evaluation success, from homegrown prospects to reclamation projects to the trade market. With that reputation preceding them, Wednesday’s agreement with reliever-turned-starter Jeffrey Springs to a four-year, $31 million contract extension feels more like an assertion of his future than a bet on it.

Still, to negotiate an extension with a 30-year-old player who had yet to reach 50 innings in a major league season entering 2022, the Rays have to feel pretty good that his season was a sign of more good things to come. The agreement has some uncertainty built in; while the Rays guaranteed him $31 million over four years, it includes a $15 million club option for a fifth year and a series of incentives tied to innings and Cy Young Award voting placement that could more than double the deal’s total value by the end of its course. For the Rays, it’s a relatively modest investment on the low end; on the other end, having to dole out the full $65.75 million would in all likelihood be a good problem to have. For Springs, it’s nothing short of hard to believe.

Springs did a lot well in 2022. After starting the year with seven scoreless relief outings, he was asked to join the rotation in May and did so seamlessly, holding opponents scoreless in four of his first seven starts. Despite having made just two starts in his four big league seasons prior and despite having never been a regular starter for more than about half a season in the minors, he filled the open rotation spot capably from early May through the rest of the year, posting a 2.65 ERA, 3.19 FIP, and 3.36 xFIP; Tampa went 16–8 in his 24 starts.

Springs wasn’t exactly a model of working deep into games, often coming out in the fourth or fifth inning, but that fit into the Rays’ plan for him, and it worked well. He shrunk his walk rate to a career-low 2.06 per nine innings, cut his home run rate nearly in half to 0.93 per nine, and, though his hard-hit rate ticked up, induced more ground balls in place of barreled line drives and was able to limit damage on hard contact. He jumped from the 50th percentile in chase rate in his last qualifying season in 2020 to the 95th in ’22. Among pitchers with 130 or more innings, he finished 10th with a 2.46 ERA, 17th with a 3.04 FIP, and 18th with a 3.29 xFIP.

The key to that success was Springs’ changeup, which he uses almost exclusively against righties. Per Baseball Savant, it went from 27.8 inches of drop and 12.6 inches of horizontal break in 2021 to 34.1 inches of drop and 13.7 inches of break in ’22, and also slowed down by nearly 3 mph to 81.1 on average. Already his best pitch, it was even stronger last year; its 1.37 wCH/C made it the sixth-best changeup in the majors on a per-100 pitch basis:

Best MLB Changeups in 2022
Name Team wCH wCH/C
1 Sandy Alcantara MIA 24.5 2.72
2 Tyler Anderson LAD 14.8 1.81
3 Max Fried ATL 6.8 1.73
4 Kyle Wright ATL 6.5 1.57
5 Madison Bumgarner ARI 4.3 1.42
6 Jeffrey Springs TBR 10.2 1.37
Minimum 130.0 IP

Hitters were confounded, with a huge 38.1% whiff rate on the pitch and just an 83.4 mph average exit velocity. They chased at 48.7% of changeups out of the strike zone, and all told struggled to a .229 average, .320 slugging, and .255 wOBA on it. Wisely, Springs ramped up its usage, going from 27.8% in 2021 to 34.7% in ’22, including 43.8% of pitches to right-handed hitters. When all was said and done, just seven pitchers threw more changeups in 2022 than Springs’ 745, and just three — Sandy Alcantara, Tyler Anderson, and Logan Webb — generated more overall value with the pitch.

A major league starter needs more than one trick up his sleeve, and Springs’ slider was another important aspect of his success in 2022. It, too, changed its shape in 2022, dropping less (from 42.5 inches to 32.4) and maintaining a similar level of break as he threw it over two mph faster to differentiate its timing more from the change. Springs had more success with the modified breaking pitch, throwing it across the plate to hitters on both sides. Ultimately, it went from a below-average pitch to one worth 0.75 runs above average per 100 uses.

Take a look at these sliders from 2021 (first) and ’22.

It’s coming in a little harder and sharper, giving hitters less time to catch up to a hanger or foul one off and wait for their pitch. Left-handed hitters went from a .356 wOBA against the slider to a .255 mark; righties went from .430 to .284. With the help of the magic of the Rays coaching staff, Springs transformed his arsenal from this:

To this (again, with significant velocity changes to the changeup and slider, as well):

With his refined arsenal, Springs found particular success around the shadow of the plate, where he was able to locate 45.3% of his pitches and induce swings 57.9% of the time, limiting hitters to a .240 wOBA and 85.2 mph average exit velocity. Via Baseball Savant’s swing take profiles, his work in the shadow zone had a run value of -25, all from getting hitters to swing at the pitches on the edges. His changeup especially shone in this area, generating swings 71.4% of the time and posting a .202 wOBA and an 81.9-mph exit velocity.

Jeffrey Springs’ 2022 Swing Take Profile
Location Swing Take
Heart -8 -8
Shadow -25 0
Chase -2 17
Waste -1 5
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

In the process of revamping his arsenal and painting the lines of the strike zone, he turned himself from a 28-year-old Red Sox DFA in 2021 to a guy with a shot to earn himself up to $65.75 million over the next four years. That’s a pretty remarkable turnaround.

As is their wont, the Rays have crafted themselves, at a reasonable cost, one of the finest starting rotations in the American League, if not all of baseball. Shane McClanahan headlines the group, followed by a healthy Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen, Springs, and free-agent addition Zach Eflin. Yonny Chirinos, Luis Patiño, and Josh Fleming are available to provide depth, and 21-year-old top pitching prospect Taj Bradley could be in the mix down the road as well. It’s a strong group to go along with a solid bullpen, and the extension of Springs just provides more stability in the coming years. As it stands now, Glasnow is the only rotation member scheduled to hit free agency before the next three seasons have passed. In the meantime, this group can buckle down and get to work.





Chris is a data journalist and FanGraphs contributor. Prior to his career in journalism, he worked in baseball media relations for the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox.

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sadtrombonemember
1 year ago

This headline