Who Gets a Hit First?

Hello, and welcome to a post where you do the answering. Usually, in the course of writing our content, we try to offer something conclusive. We tackle a subject, and toward the end of the article, we discuss what might lie ahead for the player, or the team, or the policy. None of that here. What’s offered below is relevant information, but then there’s a poll, where you decide which answer suits you better. The question being asked: of the following two players, which one do you think will sooner record his first-ever major-league hit?

Jon Lester

Status

In the majors; bad

Why a hit might be a while

Last week, Lester had the misfortune of having to bat against Max Scherzer. Now, the thing about Lester is he’s being paid good money to pitch. If the Cubs even considered his hitting, it wasn’t for more than a handful of minutes. But, against Scherzer, Lester set a record. Maybe you’ve already heard about this one. Lester, for his career, is now 0-for-59. It’s the longest hitless streak to start a career in history. It was last week that Lester broke the record previously set by Joey Hamilton. And oh, by the way, those are regular-season numbers. Lester’s 0-for-another-5 in the playoffs. Zero hits in 71 big-league plate appearances.

He’s struck out more than half the time, which is one of the worst rates ever. For every four balls he’s managed to put in play, three have been grounders. Here are some sample swings. This gives you a sense of Jon Lester’s plate presence.

Lester’s been bad at this. There’s no other way around an o’fer. Pitcher hitting isn’t a priority for anyone, and if Lester’s working on anything besides pitching, it’s probably that whole thing about controlling the running game. There’s no more pressure here. The record is already Lester’s. It’ll stay Lester’s for a while. There’s no indignity to be avoided.

Why a hit might be just around the corner

That’s kind of a joke, but it’s also not. Bartolo Colon just hit a double. If Bartolo Colon can hit a double, Jon Lester can hit a single. There’s also the matter of the ball in play Lester hit in assuming sole possession of the record:

And, hey! From Lester’s next plate appearance:

Awful close. And the funny thing about coming awful close: Lester nearly stopped this streak in at-bat No. 6, when no one was even paying attention. The history Lester made? In part, you can blame Jimmy Rollins.

Lester actually has a contact rate north of 70%. Most of those are fouls, granted, but he can’t run a .000 BABIP forever. He’s clearly come close to hits before, so it’s not like this is something he’s completely and utterly incapable of. This is his first year in the National League. Now he’s going to get regular hitting practice, even if it’s still not much of a priority. NL pitchers out-hit AL pitchers, and you figure some of that is because they practice it more often. They certainly get more reps. Lester will work on this.

And about those reps: Lester averages about 2.3 at-bats per game. He’s on pace to collect about another 53 at-bats the rest of the year. Let’s assume Lester isn’t a true-talent .000 hitter. What might be more appropriate? Over the last couple decades, the worst-hitting pitcher, with enough playing time, batted .031. The average of the worst ten batting averages is .052. Let’s round to .050. Assign that as Lester’s ability. His odds of going hitless the rest of the year: just under 7%.

Drop it to .040? 12%.

Drop it to .030? 20%.

Drop it to .025? 26%.

You have to think Lester is spectacularly bad if you think the odds favor his remaining hitless through 2015. There’s being terrible, and there’s being the equivalent of a dead person. A hit’ll happen. It almost has to. Might happen this week. Unless Lester is far and away the worst at this the game has ever seen. Even Jim Abbott went 2-for-21.

I suppose Lester could get hurt.

Kyle Schwarber

Status

In the minors; good

Why a hit might be a while

So there’s that thing about Schwarber currently being in the minor leagues. That’s the biggest obstacle. He was only just drafted last summer, and he’s just getting his first exposure in Double-A. Hasn’t seen Triple-A yet. Another complicating factor: the Cubs want to see if Schwarber can stick as a catcher, despite some doubts outside of the organization, and the value of a good-hitting catcher is such that you don’t want to ruin one of these guys by hastily interrupting his routine and progress. The Cubs know they need to balance the present against the future. The Cubs know that Schwarber could be a major part of that future. They don’t want to act out of short-term interest.

Jed Hoyer, asked about Schwarber maybe seeing the major leagues in 2015:

“To be candid it’s too early to assess any of those things,” Hoyer said. “We love what we see so far but it’s way too early to talk about that.”

Joe Maddon suggested Schwarber is the kind of guy who could get a cup of coffee in September. The organization indicated, again, it hasn’t talked about promoting him yet. The conversation will take place, in time, but for the moment, Schwarber might be at least months away.

Why a hit might be just around the corner

Keith Law thinks the bat is just about ready. Maddon thinks Schwarber could help in 2015. The Cubs are in contention, and right now they’re a little weak in the corner outfield, and Schwarber has some experience in the outfield, and as I write this, Schwarber owns the very top wRC+ in all of the minor leagues. Read that again, because I didn’t make it up: no hitter has been a better hitting than Kyle Schwarber, this year, below the majors. He’s at least keeping up with Kris Bryant’s numbers from a year ago, and by some measures he’s been better. Bryant has had no issues adjusting to the bigs, that anyone’s noticed, and as much as the Cubs want to build out the foundation in what they consider the right way, there’s no substitute for a playoff race. This year matters, and Schwarber could conceivably provide another boost. Even if it interrupts some of his progress behind the plate, it’s not like there wouldn’t be time to work on that later, or on the side. Immediate contention takes priority.

If Schwarber came up, it wouldn’t be to sit. Maybe he wouldn’t get a hit in his first game. Maybe it would take two or three. He’d presumably get a hit somewhere in the first week. Javier Baez started out 0-for-5 before knocking a dinger. Bryant singled in at-bat No. 5. The questions about Schwarber — they aren’t questions about his hitting.

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So I leave it to you. It’s between a currently-awesome starting pitcher, and a top prospect in the Southern League.